Boom/Bust or Floor?

With the #3 pick, most would agree that drafting either Scoot or Miller, with their solid floors and ceilings worth investing in, is a good call. They are the safe picks, the "Floor" picks. And I can't fault anyone for choosing them, especially not talent scouts who spend 100's of hours reviewing game film and talking with doctors, teachers, coaches, and cousins.

But in this draft is a prospect who is one of the biggest Boom or Bust candidates to be mocked in the Top 5 in 10 years. Amen Thompson. 6'7 with a 7'0 wingspan, 44" vertical, blinding first step, handles, passing, DEFENSE! He has it all... except for one tiny, minuscule thing. He can't score from 12 feet out consistently.

So I thought, hey, I've got a few minutes this afternoon, why not look back at Boom or Bust prospects since 2012, see how I felt about them as prospects at the time and how far off my scouting prowess was. Quite a few boomed, and a bunch busted! (Honestly, after getting to 2018, I started to worry that this post was getting a little long in the tooth, so I stopped there, lol.)

What can I say? On a personal note, at the time of these drafts, I really liked many of these boom-or-bust candidates, which says quite a bit about me as a "talent scout." I swing for the fences when I'm playing with house money.

2012 -

Tony Wroten Jr. PICK 25 (don't remember caring, he was a Huskie after all)

Jeremy Lamb PICK 12 (really liked him, thought he'd be an all-star, 3rd best player from this draft)

Andre Drummond PICK 9 (liked him)

Arnett Moultrie PICK 27 (don't remember caring)

Austin Rivers PICK 10 (hated him)

Perry Jones III PICK 28 (really liked him lol, was out of the league in 3 seasons)

2013 -

Steven Adams PICK 12 (wasn't warm or cold)

Dennis Schroeder PICK 17 (loved him, at 17 I thought that was unbelievably good luck for the Hawks)

Kentavious Caldwell Pope PICK 8 (thought he'd be a bust)

Giannis Antetokounmpo PICK 15 (really liked him, wanted him with our pick and was depressed when we grabbed CJ)

Nerlens Noel PICK 6 (hated him, had bust written all over him)

Michael Carter Williams PICK 11 (really liked him, size, IQ and handles. When he won Rookie of the Year I was pretty chuffed)

2014 -

Doug McDermott PICK 11 (thought he'd be a bust)

Kyle Anderson PICK 30 (liked him)

Zach LaVine PICK 13 (liked him, thought he'd be really fun to have on the team,)

Dario Saric PICK 12 (meh)

Glenn Robinson III PICK 40 (thought he'd be a bust)

2015 -

Kristaps Porzingis PICK 4 (laughed out loud when NYK drafted him, thought he'd be a bust)

Myles Turner PICK 11 (liked him)

Kelly Oubre PICK 15 (really liked him, thought he'd be the best player from this draft)

Kevon Looney PICK 30 (didn't know anything about him)

Jarell Martin PICK 25 (didn't know anything about him)

2016 -

Jaylen Brown PICK 3 (really liked him, superb athlete, lock down defender, good size, just need to fix that jumper... sound like anyone? cough cough)

Thon Maker PICK 10 (really liked him, was excited for what he could do for a defense and as a lob threat)

Chieck Diallo PICK 33 (meh)

Furkan Korkmaz PICK 26 (looked like a bust to me)

Caris LaVert PICK 20 (meh)

Dejounte Murray PICK 29 (liked him, but we already had too many small guards so I wasn't high on him)

2017 -

Lonzo Ball PICK 2 (hated him as a prospect, thought he'd be a bust, loved that the Lakers wasted a pick on him)

De'Aaron Fox PICK 5 (loved him, thought he'd be the best player from this draft, I have his rookie cards)

Malik Monk PICK 11 (meh, nothing to get excited about)

Jonathan Isaac PICK 6 (very intrigued, would have happily drafted him)

Donovan Mitchell PICK 13 (liked him, his attitude and drive were infectious, but couldn't come around to the idea of another small guard)

OG Anunoby PICK 23 (really liked him, thought this was the guy for our 2nd pick, knee injury and all, was gonna be our steal of the draft)

2018 -

Michael Porter Jr. PICK 14 (I thought he'd be a bust due to health)

Robert Williams PICK 27 (didn't know much about him)

Mitchell Robinson PICK 36 (liked him, thought NYK got fantastic value with this pick)

Anfernee Simons PICK 24 (who? I had done NO research into Ant prior to the draft)

Mo Bamba PICK 6 (loved him, thought he would go #2 after Luka. he was gonna be All NBA for a decade)

What were some of your Boom or Bust busts? And has being so wildly off on a pick caused you to shy away from boom-or-bust candidates? Perhaps it depends on where the team is at developmentally? Let's hear it!