How not to Negotiate Trades

There has been a lot of print on this site concerning trading Simons and the #3 pick for BKN Bridge's.

Before a discussion of trades we should, in my opinion, set the price for the #3 pick and Simons separately. To do this I think a look at Lillard's draft class would be instructive.

Of the sixty players drafted only 12 have played all 11 years. Of those 12 only 6 have played +20k minutes. Of the 14 players drafted in the lottery 9 of the 14 played 10 or more seasons.

With this information, the Blazers should demand 2 picks, if those picks land in the lottery, for the #3 pick and 4 FRPs if those picks fall outside the lottery. And this is before trading Simons.

Trading Simons by himself should not only bring back a player but also a FRP.

So, if we commit to trading Simons and #3 pick the Blazers should not only get Bridges but also 3 to 5 FRP.