Mario Hezonja has been a bad player through the first four years of his NBA career. Regular stats, advanced stats, and the eye test all point to a player who has negatively impacted the teams he’s been on. An uptick in his third season won him a contract with the Knicks after the Magic declined his 4th year option (awful for a 5th pick in the draft), but he seemingly devolved again last year. He might be on his last shot in the NBA with the Portland Trail Blazers in 2019-20.
Still, the Blazers hold at least a glimmer of hope for Hezonja, or they wouldn’t have acquired him. Here are a few statistical nuggets that could indicate Hezonja’s potential to become a positive NBA player.
First and foremost, Hezonja is still young. Aged 24, there’s still a bit of time for him to develop, both physically and in skill. Plenty of other players continue to get better as they head into their mid-20s, with some guys not peaking until their late 20s, or even early 30s. Hezonja’s best years as a basketball player are still ahead of him.
Hezonja hasn’t played *that* many NBA minutes. Development curves are tied not only to age, but to minutes played. Someone who’s 26 but has only played 2,000 NBA minutes might have more upside than a 23 year old who’s already played 10,000 NBA minutes. Andrew Wiggins is the same age as Hezonja, but he’s been in the NBA a year longer, and has already played almost three times the number of minutes as Mario. Wiggins probably is what he is at this point, barring a very unexpected leap. There’s still room for Hezonja to grow.
Hezonja’s shot chart quality has improved fairly consistently over the past four years. To boost his awful efficiency, he’s improved his free throw rate (free throws per field goal attempt) every season, advancing from a paltry 0.129 his rookie season to 0.246 last year. If he’s not going to be a good shooter (32.1% from deep on 2.7 attempts per game in his career), he will need to get to the line to maintain a decent level of shooting efficiency.
Similarly, Hezonja has taken far more shot attempts within 0-3 feet (at the rim) the past two years compared to his first two. Together with his increased free throw rate, this is probably a sign that his ballhandling, strength, and/or decision-making have improved. Increased shots at the rim have coincided with fewer long twos, again speaking to better shot selection and decision making. If he can keep improving in these areas, he will be a far better scorer and offensive threat.
Hezonja’s usage has climbed each year he’s been in the league. He’s lowered his turnover rate since his rookie season, and his assist percentage last season was the highest its ever been. He’s certainly not a great playmaker, but he’s more willing to pass than he used to be, and turns the ball over somewhat less. He started his NBA career as an awful rebounder, especially considering his 6’8 height, massive for a guard. His rebounding has improved each year, and could keep rising as he adds strength and mass.
I’m not entirely optimistic about Hezonja. His inability to shoot is a huge barrier to success, especially considering his lack of defense. If he can’t shoot or play “D” and isn’t an above-average playmaker… well, that’s not really an NBA player. His overall advanced metrics (Win Shares, BPM, RPM, PIPM) have all been awful, even with his various steps forward in certain areas. He only rated above replacement level in his third season.
Hezonja has made some progress, but the overall package still isn’t there. He’s running out of time. Hopefully Terry Stotts, Damian Lillard, and the Trail Blazers’ development staff can round off some of the rough edges to develop him into at least a solid rotation level player. They’ve done it before, and they might be able to do it again. But they’ve got their work cut out for them this time.