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Why Olshey will not trade CJ for Butler (poll)

To begin with, this is not about which of the two are better, or more valuable. This is about people. It is very possible that Olshey is willing to trade CJ for Butler and that CJ is better than any offer Minni gets, but it is still not going to happen.

Credit to Moflow for the inspiration

Remember, GMs don't know what other GMs are offering, so no doubt there's a LOT of bluffing involved. MIN has little bargaining power outside of other offers, so you know they're going work that angle for all it's worth. But if Olshey thinks that he can get Butler without CJ, (possibly because an anonymous GM trashed him) then he's not going to offer CJ because the reward of putting the 3 together is huge

The risk is also huge as well, at some point the other GM is going to say "Well, we have a better offer than anything you've mentioned, so either put CJ on the table or I hang up" And Olshey has to decide if that's real or a bluff. I wouldn't be surprised if almost that exact statement is said an eye-rolling amount of times between GMs.

It's actually very possible this JUST happened to us with Paul George. Perhaps we offered 3 firsts and whatever else, but they bluffed and demanded CJ. Olshey holds his ground because he's confident that he has the best offer. And he does, but the Pacers don't want to admit it so they settle for Oladipo and pretend that was their favorite non-CJ offer from the beginning. Then Oladipo blows up, surprising even the Pacers.

As far as we know, this almost exact scenario happens ALL THE TIME. Probably happens with other steals as well, one GM bluffs hard that they have a better offer and the other GM falls for it and gives up the farm for the piece they feel they HAVE to get.

So I believe that Olshey is going to call the bluff, and he's not going to lose sleep over missing out on Butler because Dame and Butler likely isn't a franchise changing duo, while Dame, CJ, and Butler could definitely be franchise changing. Especially since super teams aren't going away any time soon. When the Warriors are gone, the Celtics or some other will take their place.

If there's even a 30% chance you can get Butler without CJ and put together a real championship contending team, don't you have to take that chance?