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Overreacting to the West Race: "The More I See, The Less I Know"

A dozen games in we should start to see some definition of the Play-Off race. The East has begun that process in a straight-forward fashion: Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Boston are all in the top 5. Indiana has continued its good play from last season. Charlotte is the only slight surprise, while the Wizards are the one team flopping beyond all expectations. The rest are dreck and who cares.

The pre-season narrative in the West is that the influx of talent meant that one or more really good teams with winning records would end up in the lottery. But things have been haywire since day one. At the moment, New Orleans, Utah, Houston and Minnesota would be lottery teams this season! I know it is early, but questions are flying at us way faster than answers.

One question: At what point does a team, their fans and then the public realize that they are fundamentally different? Do you remember the Mark Jackson Golden State Warriors? They were cute and exciting and fun, but not a championship threat. The league is feeling the wrath of the Steve Kerr Warriors. Is there any chance we see a time where we don't hear "with the 5th pick in the draft the Sacramento Kings select....." Have any teams flipped the narrative as we head into the season?

In the West after 3 weeks we only know 2 things for absolute sure: Phoenix is odds on favorite to select a Duke player in the 2019 draft and Golden State is an equally heavy favorite to hoist the championship trophy once again. Beyond that? No one knows. Not Nate at 538. Not our old friend Ben at the Crossover. Not Dave or Timmy or the staff at Blazersedge. Not You. And Certainly Not me. Portland and Denver have carved out small leads as the 2nd and 3rd teams in the West. The 11 remaining teams have from 5 to 8 wins and every one of them has raised new questions. I will not even try to provide answers. Let's look at the questions with each team:

PHOENIX (2-10) - Ok. We know they will finish in the bottom 3. Did the Suns dump their GM right before the season because recent draft picks have failed so badly (Chriss, Bender, Josh Jackson), or because he started this season with no talent at point guard? At lease Ayton is starting out OK. Is Ariza a chip to dish to a contender?

GOLDEN STATE (11-3) - Will Boogie return and will be give them some bulk down low and make them more dangerous or will he have a "Melo"-style fit? With 1 technical foul and zero minutes played is Cousins' player rating negative infinity?

THE FALLEN FAVORITE:

HOUSTON (5-7) - Did Daryl Morey doom the season by letting Ariza and Mbah a Moute walk and bringing in Anthony, or did he save the season by pushing Melo out so quickly? More moves to come from the NBA's most active GM.

LAST YEAR'S PLAY-OFF TEAMS. WHO FALLS OUT?:

MINNESOTA (5-9) - The Butler saga is over, and Covington/Saric is the best win-now move they could make. First question: how do they make this move without getting some level of first round pick? Butler's poison and pressure had its impact. 2nd question: If the Wolves make a play-off push is KAT's sudden emergence the cause, or is it because of the suddenly healthy Derrick Rose? (Even if his play warrants it, could Rose win Comeback Player with his off-field issues?).

NEW ORLEANS (7-6) - At their best, are these Pelicans on par with last year's Rockets? With one minor nick already, can AD survive a full-throttle season at the 5?

UTAH (7-6) - The Jazz made their great run late last season with an elite defense. Why are they now 14th in defensive rating? Has Rubio reverted to his career averages in shooting? Mitchell is once again great, but is there another level ahead for him or is this it?

SAN ANTONIO (7-5) - First, good for DeMar DeRozan. He showed a passion and loyalty for Toronto that they failed to reciprocate. Then he has added play-maker duties as a Spur. A team with a healthy Aldridge, DDR, and Pop has to make the play-offs, doesn't it? The Spurs biggest question is health, having already lost Murray for the season, and relying on relics like Gay and Gasol for key contributions. Early returns on Poeltl as a key pick-up in the Kawhi trade are disappointing.

OKLAHOMA CITY (8-5) - Are these just nagging injuries plaguing Russ early or a deeper problem? Is 30% shooting from deep just an early season fluke or a systemic problem?

PORTLAND (10-3) - Which of these early stats won't hold up: Portland is top 2 in key rebounding numbers. Portland is #1 in opponent's field goal percentage. Portland is 5th in offensive rating despite being 11th in field goal percentage and 10th in 3 point percentage. Here is the number that jumps off the page: The Blazers are 6-1 against teams at .500 and over!

TEAMS TRYING TO BREAK THROUGH THIS YEAR

DENVER (9-4) - Which is a better indicator: the 9-1 start or the 3 game losing streak? Is this leaky team now a top 10 defense? Is he Jokic the scorer, or Jokic the non-shooting play-maker? With injuries to Barton and Thomas, will the Nuggets be even better when they hit full strength?

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (7-6) - Which group matters more: the misfit veterans (McGee, Rondo, Stephenson and Beasley) or the kids (Ingram, Kuzma, Ball and Hart)? Will Rondo and Ball have to fight at some point? How soon is Ball shipped out? Can LeBron put together an MVP level effort to get this crew to the play-offs?

LA CLIPPERS (8-5) - Can this team succeed without a true star? Who is the 6th man of the year: Williams or Harrell? Who is more underrated: Tobias Harris or rookie Gilgeous-Alexander? Will it hold up that the team in LA that is the best landing place for a great free agent is clearly the Clippers?

MEMPHIS (7-5) - Can Grindhouse II equal the original, especially in today's offensive NBA? Is Garret Temple the best underrated pick-up? Health, health, health?

SACREMENTO (8-6) - Is Fox about to join the ranks of elite point guards? Can he turn Cauley-Stein into LaMarcus-lite? Are the pieces finally coming together for this perennially hapless franchise?

DALLAS (5-8) - Can you add the rookie of the year and an elite shot-shot blocking center with a very good coach and still miss the play0offs? Is Doncic going to be very good or a star? Can Barea continue to dish 6 dimes a game in only 19 minutes? If the Mavs decide they are lottery bound, do they have any veterans to spin off to a contender?

HERE ARE THE FEW THINGS I THINK I KNOW: From today's news, don't be surprised to see chemistry issues creep into Golden State. That probably means they take 5 games to win the final. Portland is the best bet for home court behind GS (subject to change). Dallas is a long shot, Kings are better than expected and the Clippers are surprisingly good. The Lakers are entertaining every quarter of every game. Beyond that I don't know a damn thing about the West play-off race. What questions do you have or what do you know for sure.