FanPost

Is it safe to label Zach Collins a bust?

Today on the Ringer, writer Zach Kram post an article on identifying draft busts after their first 10 games. In the article, Kram postulates that a metric developed by John Holliger, titlled "game score", is a valuable metric in determining whether or not a player will live up to draft expectations. Kram writes:

The worse a player’s first 10 games, the less chance he has of becoming even a productive player, let alone the star his draft position would suggest.

It's a bold suggestion, and his hypothesis leads to some sad news for Blazers fans as two current Blazers players get called out...

Beyond Fultz, this pattern is discouraging for a handful of other young players. Since the 2013 draft class, the worst first-10 game scores among top-10 picks belong to 2014’s Nik Stauskas and Noah Vonleh, 2015’s Mario Hezonja, 2016’s Dragan Bender and Thon Maker, and 2017’s Zach Collins, who has made just one shot through four games played. Stauskas and Vonleh both continue the trend, as they’re already on their second teams and averaging fewer than four points per game this year, while Hezonja’s scoring average has decreased in every season so far. Bender, Maker, and Collins still have time to turn their careers around, but their forebears with disastrous debut stretches don’t provide any optimism that they’ll be able to manage.

Vonleh has shown flashes of potential over the last couple of years, but has yet to show consistency. There was some hope that after a nice finish to last season that he was ready to turn the corner, but after an injury delayed the start of his season, he is averaging 3.0 points and 6.7 rebounds per game.

The Blazers traded up to draft Zach Collins, and immediately fans were debating the decision. While many have preached patience for a young guy who played a key role in Gonzaga's run to the NCAA championship game last year, Collins Summer league and start to his career haven't provided encouragement yet. While Collins has been labeled as a "project", there has been some early buyers-remorse for a few fans as guys drafted behind him like Donovan Mitchell, John Collins, and Kyle Kuzma have found early success in the NBA. His playing time has been limited, and has only played in 4 games, but the small sample size has not calmed anybodies fears. In his 28 minutes played this season, Collins has accumulated 3 points, 4 rebounds, 0 blocks, 0 steals, and 7 fouls.

So what do you say? Do you still have hope for Collins, or have you already declared him a bust? And what about Vonleh?