The math gurus over at numberFire.com have crunched numbers, arrange algorithms, and sine-d off on the logs. They're now ready to present to you probabilities for given outcomes in the first round series between the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies. All in all, the outlook isn't too bad for Portland:
Probabilities for Series between Memphis Grizzlies & Portland Trail Blazers
Memphis Grizzlies win in 4: 5.34%
Memphis Grizzlies win in 5: 14.19%
Memphis Grizzlies win in 6: 12.52%
Memphis Grizzlies win in 7: 18.98%
Memphis Grizzlies win series: 51.03%
Portland Trail Blazers win in 4: 5.92%
Portland Trail Blazers win in 5: 10.24%
Portland Trail Blazers win in 6: 19.56%
Portland Trail Blazers win in 7: 13.25%
Portland Trail Blazers win series: 48.97%
Interesting to note, the most likely outcome is that the Trail Blazers win in 6. However, Memphis has a better chance to win the series (even though it is pretty much a coin flip).
Given injuries and Portland's track record against the Grizzlies this year, winning the series in 6 or even taking it to 7 games would be a welcome outcome.
Side note: numberFire's slogan, "Math + Sports = You Don't Lose." shows you how far the world has come. When I was a kid it was, "Math + Sports? LOSER!"