Everyone is talking about tomorrow night's game between the Blazers and Spurs, so here's some bonus coverage from the Fanposts. -- Tim
Introduction
This is a brief analysis of the two teams’ statistics as background to the upcoming game. Of course, this early in the season, the numbers are not as meaningful as later, but even with only a few games the data provide hints concerning the key areas of conflict viewed from a team level. The usual pregame write-ups tend to emphasize individual players and match-ups, so I have not tried to duplicate those here although a few observations are made regarding lineups.
Strength of Schedule
Opponents Winning Percentage
- Blazers .473
-
Spurs .414
Looking only at wins and losses and to whom, the two teams could be judged to be close with the Spurs slightly ahead (Relative Percent Indexes* are .489 to 480), but the gap between point differentials (+10.6 to +1.0 per game)) suggests that a larger difference exists.
* Relative Percent Index (RPI) weighs team’s record 25%, opponents’ records 50%, and opponents of opponents’ records 25%.
Comparison and Analysis
The Spurs score at the same rate that the Blazers have been allowing opponents to score 102.5 points per 100 possessions scored to 102.6 allowed. In contrast, the Blazers have been scoring 104.1 pints per 100 possessions and the Spurs have been holding their opponents to only 92.5 points. This is a giant 11.6 point difference, and we need to see how it has been happening.
Team |
W |
L |
OffRtg |
DefRtg |
NetRtg |
AST% |
AST/TO |
AST Ratio |
OREB% |
DREB% |
REB% |
TO Ratio |
eFG% |
TS% |
PACE |
Blazers |
4 |
4 |
104.1 |
102.6 |
1.5 |
51.3 |
1.26 |
15.5 |
23.4 |
76.7 |
50.4 |
16.1 |
52.8 |
55.2 |
99.90 |
5 |
2 |
102.5 |
92.9 |
9.5 |
61.8 |
1.55 |
19.0 |
22.1 |
79.8 |
53.8 |
16.5 |
52.6 |
55.6 |
99.25 |
First, the Blazers have been shooting at a .467 field goal percentage (FG%), and the Spurs have been holding their opponents to a .427 FG%. Likewise, for 3-point shots, the Blazers are .369 and the Spurs have held opponents to .312, coincidently the same as the Blazers have held their opponents.
TOTAL POINTS |
FG PCT |
3PT PCT |
FT% |
TURNOVERS |
|||||||
TEAM |
G |
OWN |
OPP |
DIFF |
OWN |
OPP |
OWN |
OPP |
OWN |
OWN |
OPP |
BLAZERS |
8 |
830 |
822 |
+8 |
.467 |
.442 |
.369 |
.312 |
.669 |
125 |
98 |
SPURS |
7 |
716 |
642 |
+74 |
.488 |
.421 |
.333 |
.312 |
.779 |
110 |
104 |
The pace of possessions per 48 minutes has been essentially the same for the two teams.
The next two tables put numbers next to each other for one team’s attempts or offensive points in the same column as the matching other team’s opponents attempts or defensive points allowed – that is above or below each other. Spurs’ numbers are on top with the name of the stat above the numbers, and Blazers’ are below and with names below the numbers. For example, the third column of the first table immediately below (first column regarding attempts) has the field goal attempts per game by the Spurs above the number of attempts allowed by the Blazers.
Spurs |
GP |
FGA |
3PA |
Opp FGA |
Opp 3PA |
7 |
84.3 |
19.3 |
84.9 |
19.7 |
|
Blazers
|
8 |
85.6 |
23.6 |
84.1 |
28.1 |
GP |
Opp FGA |
Opp 3PA |
FGA |
3PA |
Here, we can see that the Blazers have allowed more field goal attempts and more 3-point attempts than the Spurs have been attempting. Portland takes 84.1 field goal attempts (FGA) per game almost identical to San Antonio’s 84.3. The Blazers take more 3-point attempts per game 28.1 to the Spurs 19.3 and make more 10.4 to 6.4. Portland allows opponents 85.6 FGA (FGM 37.9) and 23.6 3-point attempts (3PM 7.4) At home, the Blazers allow more 89.5 FGA and 39.8 FGM and for 3-pointrs 28.8 3PA and 10.0 3PM. This early in the season is too early to decide this is systematic home-away difference, so I am using the overall numbers.
The same is true for Blazers’ FGA, the Spurs allow more per game. However, a sizable conflict exists between the average number of 3-point attempts per game the Blazers have been attempting, 28.1, and the number the Spurs have allowed, 19.7. This is compounded by the already mentioned low 3-point percentage the Spurs allow opponents, .312.
Now, because the results of attempts and shooting percentages are points and points are what count, let us look at these some categories for points scored and allowed per game, so we can better understand the points of conflict between the two teams.
The next (fourth) table shows per game how the Spurs defensive numbers for what they allow opponents compares with what the Blazers have been achieving. (I have moved the corresponding Blazers defense vs. Spurs offense table to an Annex since it reveals little beyond that the Blazers have a foul problem – committing the third most in the NBA.)
The overall context is the Spurs have allowed 91.7 points per game in contrast to the Blazers having been scoring 103.8.
SPURS |
GP |
Opp PTS 2P FG |
Opp PTS 3P FG |
Opp PTS FT |
Opp PTS |
Opp |
Opp |
Opp |
7 |
59.2 |
18.3 |
14.1 |
18.4 |
8.7 |
9.6 |
38.9 |
|
BLAZERS
|
8 |
57.8 |
31.2 |
14.9 |
12.6 |
15.3 |
11.6 |
40.5 |
GP |
PTS 2P FG |
PTS 3P FG |
PTS FT |
PTS |
2nd Ch. |
FBPs |
PITP |
Two areas exist where the Spurs have been allowing strikingly fewer points than the Blazers have been scoring – 3-pointers and second chance points. As for 3-pointers, remember Blazers have attempting, 28.1 3-pointers per game, and the Spurs have been allowing, 19.7 as well as the Blazers have shot .369 on 3-pointer while the Spurs have been allowing opponents only .312. The Blazers should need to work hard to have open 3-point shots, as the Spurs will vigorously try to deny them and to have a hand in the Blazers’ faces to depress their success rate.
The second area of conflict is the Blazers’ second chance points. Part of the conflict is between the Blazers 23.4% offensive rebound percentage (OREB%) and the Spurs defensive rate 79.8% (DREB%). Only a 100% of the rebounds are available at the Blazers’ offensive basket, not 103.2%. The other area will be the shooting percentage when putting the rebounds back. The Blazers have a 54.2% FG% within 5 feet of the basket and the Spurs allow 54.3%, not a conflict per se. However, if the Blazers kick them out for 3-point shots, then we come back to the conflict we just covered concerning 3-pointers.
Lineups
Bonus: Lineup-related snippets:
Spurs: "It was their bench doing much of the damage." (AP)
Blazers: "Damian Lillard is a popular building piece among our fantasy experts… The development of C.J. McCollum has translated into wins for Portland this year." (ESPN)
Portland has three players playing 33.4 minutes or more per game – Lillard, McCollum, and Aminu. The Spurs have one – Leonard – over 29.4. However, the Blazers play 10 players more than 10 minutes a game almost as many as the 11 the Spurs regularly play at least 8 minutes.
The Spurs starting lineup has played 101 minutes and has a NetRtg of -6.5. It has not been the source of the Spurs team +9.5 NetRtg. However, in the Spurs latest game the starting lineup had a NetRtg of +8.6 in 15 minutes. The Spurs’ second most frequently used lineup (27 minutes) of Aldridges - Diaw - Ginobiliu - Leonard - Millsy has a NetRtg of +16.8. The explosiveness of the Spurs bench is shown by the fact that an example of a somewhat typical mostly bench lineup of Diaw - Ginobiliu - Leonard - Mills - West has a NetRtg of +98.7 albeit in only 7 minutes. For the Spurs, the golden bench trio has been Mills, Ginobili, and Diaw.
The Blazers most frequently used lineup of Aminu - Leonard - Lillard - McCollum - Plumlee at 113 minutes also has a negative NetRtg but much smaller one at -2.6. The Blazers’ second most frequently used lineup is mainly a bench one, Crabbe - Davis - Harkless - McCollum – Vonleh, with a NetRtg of +2.3. Crebbe and Davis seem to be giving punch to the lineups in which they are members. Aminu - Crabben - Davis - Harklesse - McCollum have a NetRtg of +114.7 albeit in 9 minutes.
Conclusion
The team statistics indicate that both teams have a higher FG% than the other has been allowing, so expect they usual offense-defense guarding battles to be intense. The Spurs excellent defense will be tested. Two more specific key conflict areas are the Blazers’ offensive rebounds and 3-point shooting. Both are areas where the Spurs have been allowing much less than the Blazers have been achieving. Look particularly at the number of open 3-point attempts the Blazers manage to create.
Both teams starting lineups have been a drag on their team – the Blazers less than the Spurs (except for the Spurs latest game in Sacramento), and their benches have been carrying them including moments of explosiveness.
Annex
SPURS |
GP |
PTS 2P FG |
PTS 3P FG |
PTS FT |
PTS |
2nd Ch. |
FBPs |
PITP |
7 |
69.4 |
19.2 |
13.6 |
13.9 |
11.0 |
10.1 |
46.0 |
|
BLAZERS
|
8 |
61.0 |
22.2 |
19.7 |
17.9 |
13.5 |
9.8 |
45.0 |
GP |
Opp PTS 2P FG |
Opp PTS 3P FG |
Opp PTS FT |
Opp PTS |
Opp |
Opp |
Opp |
Only FT points show any significant conflict, and this probably reflects the Blazers’ high foul rate.