| I have taken a break on posting player comparable analysis, for a couple of reasons. I need to get the bench press data, included, and I also made a few minor tweaks to the model. It was also necessary to finish the comps analysis on the top 75 players. I will try and post a number of specific player profiles, and then I will do a position by position analysis, and then an overall draft ranking. Not sure how many more specific player profiles I will do, but I will try and get a number of additional profiles done, especially for players linked to the Blazers, and some of the players brought in for private workouts. | ||||||||||
| One of the tweaks I have made revolves around the players comps. Initially I tried to identify a players absolute best, case probable/likely best case, most likely, and a probable/likely worst case, and absolute worst case. Someone, I can't remember who and I can't find the post, brought up the idea of changing those definitions and place the comps into categories based upon their performance, not relative to the target player. I decided to do that, and I now have 5 categories; 1.) All-Star, 2.) Good to very good NBA Starter, 3.) Above average to Average to Below Average starter or significant rotation player, 4.) Clearly Below Average lowish minute player with limited career, 5.) NBA washout, basically players who didn't make it 3 years (recent draftees don't fit here, even if they have played only 1 or 2 seasons, I fit them into the appropriate category above based upon what they have done so far). I did this with Isaiah Canaan, and I liked it better. At some point this summer I will more specifically define those categories, based upon minutes, games, WS/48, etc., but for the time being this is purely my quick assessment of the overall quality of the comp. I am sure there will be some disagreement on exactly where a player fit, but I am ok with that. | ||||||||||
| I believe this part of the analysis is very important. As I said in a couple of the threads, the projections for years 2 & 3 are automatically going to improve as the washouts get cleaned out. This can give a mistaken impression of the player. If a player does make it 3 years then the likelihood is reasonably high that the player will hot close to his projected stat line. That is because to make it 3 years he has to produce. At the same time if he doesn't progress then often times they don't make it 3 years. So when you evaluate the stat line, recognize that the stat line should be viewed within the context of the players probable outcome which is expressed within the comp section, and is expressed as the nature of the bell curve for that player. | ||||||||||
| Name | Height Inches no Shoes | Height Inches w/shoes | Weight | Body Fat | Hand Length | Hand Width | Wingspan Inches | Reach in Inches | No Step Vert Reach in Inches | Max Vert Reach in inches | No Step Vert | Max Vert | Bench | Agility | Sprint |
| Alex Len | 85 | 86.25 | 255 | 6.4% | 9 | 10.75 | 87.5 |
| Name | Weight > than standard (in lbs) | Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) | Reach > than standard (in inches) | Wingspan > than standard (in inches) | Vertical > than standard (in inches) | Speed > than standard (in sec) | Agility > than standard (in sec) | # additional bench reps than expected |
| Alex Len | 1 | -1.70% | -1.06 | |||||
| Alex Len did not participate in most of the combine because of recent surgery to stabilize a stress fracture in his ankle. He is Ukrainian, and he attended the University of Maryland for 2 years. He is 7-2 1/4" in shoes, 7-1 in socks. His weight is proportional to his height, and his reach is slightly shorter than average. | ||||||||
| Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Alex Len at age 18 and 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements. | |||
| Alex Len | Sophomore season age 19 | ||
| Player | Age | Conference | Statistical Similarity |
| Evan Eschmeyer | 21 | Big Ten | 93.5% |
| Roy Hibbert | 19 | Big East | 96.6% |
| Evan Eschmeyer | 20 | Big Ten | 92.0% |
| Matt Geiger | 21 | Atlantic Coast | 95.1% |
| Matt Geiger | 22 | Atlantic Coast | 96.0% |
| George Zidek | 20 | Pacific 12 | 94.9% |
| Roy Hibbert | 20 | Big East | 94.9% |
| Paul Davis | 20 | Big Ten | 96.1% |
| Patrick Ewing (Sr) | 19 | Big East | 94.0% |
| Luc Longley | 20 | Mountain West | 94.2% |
| Todd Fuller | 19 | Atlantic Coast | 95.5% |
| Raef LaFrentz | 19 | Big-12 | 94.4% |
| Eric Riley | 20 | Big Ten | 93.5% |
| Dwayne Schintzius | 19 | Southeastern | 92.0% |
| Kosta Koufos | 18 | Big Ten | 93.0% |
| Eric Mobley | 22 | Big East | 96.0% |
| Cherokee Parks | 21 | Atlantic Coast | 95.6% |
| Jim McIlvaine | 19 | Big East | 93.2% |
| Jim McIlvaine | 21 | Big East | 94.8% |
| Travis Knight | 20 | Big East | 94.1% |
| Alex Len | Freshman season age 18 | ||
| Player | Age | Conference | Statistical Similarity |
| Evan Eschmeyer | 20 | Big Ten | 93.4% |
| Joel Przybilla | 19 | Big Ten | 96.1% |
| Brad Daugherty | 17 | Atlantic Coast | 95.2% |
| Jim McIlvaine | 18 | Big East | 94.5% |
| Eric Riley | 19 | Big Ten | 93.5% |
| Marc Gasol | 19 | ACB | 95.8% |
| Dalibor Bagaric | 23 | Greek | 95.7% |
| Roy Hibbert | 18 | Big East | 94.1% |
| Matt Geiger | 18 | Southeastern | 93.3% |
| Jake Voskuhl | 20 | Big East | 95.7% |
| Francisco Elson | 22 | Pacific 12 | 95.5% |
| Jamal Sampson | 18 | Pacific 12 | 95.0% |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 19 | Big East | 95.3% |
| Samuel Dalembert | 18 | Big East | 95.1% |
| Rony Seikaly | 19 | Big East | 95.6% |
| Eric Riley | 21 | Big Ten | 94.6% |
| Samuel Dalembert | 19 | Big East | 95.0% |
| Jake Voskuhl | 19 | Big East | 94.6% |
| Greg Ostertag | 19 | Big-12 | 94.9% |
| Luc Longley | 19 | Mountain West | 93.0% |
| NBA All Star or Better | Patrick Ewing, Brad Daugherty | 5% | |
| Very good NBA starter | Marc Gasol, Rony Seikaly, Raef LaFrentz | 8% | |
| Above average to below average NBA starter or rotation player | Matt Geiger, Joel Przybilla, Luc Longley, Roy Hibbert, Kosta Koufos, Samuel Dalembert | 40% | |
| Below average, lowish minute NBA player | Jim McIlvaine, Evan Eschmeyer, Jamal Sampson, Eric Riley, Cherokee Parks | 43% | |
| NBA washout | George Zidek, Dalibor Bargaric | 5% | |
| Referring back to what I spoke about at the top of the article, there is 50% probability than Alex Len will end up as an average NBA big and a 50% chance he will end up as a below average NBA big. He has a nice top end with Ewing and Daugherty, but that probability is a very small 5%. His probability of even reaching the level of Seikaly, Gasol, or LaFrentz is also very low, less than 10%. The difference on the court between players like Przybilla, Geiger, Hibbert and the next group down of McIlvane, Eschmeyer, and Parks his significant, but all the players in the middle group had periods where they played like below average NBA big's. It doesn't make much at all to slip into becoming a very below average NBA big. | |||
| When you look at his comps, Len clearly looks like a solid NBA defender, but a player who will not make large contributions on the offensive end. Alex Len had a very nice Freshman season, but he certainly did not take a significant leap as a sophomore, as his performance while better, was really only marginally better. As a Freshman he average 4 blocks and 10 rbs per 40 minutes, and as a Sophomore he registered 3.1 and 11.9. This supports the belief that he will be a solid defensive player, and that supports the nature of his comps. On the offensive end he shot the ball well (57% TS%), but surprisingly his Points per Play was a disappointing 0.88 as F, and 0.99 as a Soph. His comps in general were good defenders, but limited offensively. Expect much of the same with Alex Len. | |||
| Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player | |||||||||||||||
| Season | Shooting Statistics Totals | ||||||||||||||
| FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TS% | eFG% | ||
| Alex Len | 1 | 154 | 325 | 47.1% | 154 | 322 | 47.3% | 1 | 3 | 17.5% | 87 | 130 | 67.2% | 50.9% | 47.2% |
| Alex Len | 2 | 227 | 471 | 48.2% | 222 | 454 | 48.8% | 5 | 17 | 21.3% | 121 | 174 | 69.7% | 52.4% | 48.7% |
| Alex Len | 3 | 269 | 554 | 48.6% | 264 | 542 | 48.9% | 4 | 13 | 30.6% | 133 | 194 | 68.6% | 52.2% | 49.0% |
| 3 Year Average | 226 | 469 | 48.1% | 222 | 457 | 48.5% | 4 | 12 | 24.1% | 118 | 171 | 68.7% | 52.0% | 48.5% | |
| Season | Accumulation Stats Totals | ||||||||||||||
| ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | A/TO | PF | PTS | ||||||
| Alex Len | 1 | 97 | 177 | 277 | 48 | 22 | 54 | 68 | 0.69 | 153 | 397 | ||||
| Alex Len | 2 | 136 | 267 | 407 | 72 | 38 | 101 | 93 | 0.77 | 216 | 579 | ||||
| Alex Len | 3 | 157 | 321 | 485 | 83 | 40 | 107 | 117 | 0.71 | 230 | 673 | ||||
| 3 Year Average | 135 | 267 | 406 | 71 | 35 | 92 | 96 | 0.73 | 206 | 572 | |||||
| Season | Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes | ||||||||||||||
| FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TS% | eFG% | ||
| Alex Len | 1 | 5.26 | 11.19 | 47.1% | 5.24 | 11.07 | 47.3% | 0.03 | 0.12 | 17.5% | 2.94 | 4.38 | 67.2% | 51.0% | 47.2% |
| Alex Len | 2 | 5.25 | 10.94 | 48.2% | 5.13 | 10.54 | 48.8% | 0.12 | 0.40 | 21.3% | 2.78 | 3.99 | 69.7% | 52.4% | 48.7% |
| Alex Len | 3 | 5.65 | 11.65 | 48.7% | 5.55 | 11.38 | 48.9% | 0.08 | 0.28 | 30.8% | 2.79 | 4.07 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 49.0% |
| 3 Year Average | 5.4 | 11.3 | 48.1% | 5.3 | 11.0 | 48.5% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 24.2% | 2.8 | 4.1 | 68.6% | 52.0% | 48.5% | |
| Season | Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes | ||||||||||||||
| ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | A/TO | PF | PTS | ||||||
| Alex Len | 1 | 3.32 | 5.96 | 9.38 | 1.58 | 0.73 | 1.83 | 2.27 | 0.69 | 5.29 | 13.50 | ||||
| Alex Len | 2 | 3.14 | 6.13 | 9.37 | 1.67 | 0.87 | 2.33 | 2.15 | 0.78 | 5.01 | 13.40 | ||||
| Alex Len | 3 | 3.30 | 6.72 | 10.16 | 1.74 | 0.83 | 2.26 | 2.44 | 0.72 | 4.83 | 14.12 | ||||
| 3 Year Average | 3.2 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.73 | 5.0 | 13.7 | |||||
| Season | Usage Stats | ||||||||||||||
| ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | ||||||||
| Alex Len | 1 | 10.5% | 19.0% | 14.9% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 14.7% | 17.6% | ||||||
| Alex Len | 2 | 9.9% | 19.0% | 14.6% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 14.5% | 17.0% | ||||||
| Alex Len | 3 | 10.3% | 20.3% | 15.5% | 7.1% | 1.1% | 4.3% | 15.4% | 18.0% | ||||||
| 3 Year Average | 10.2% | 19.6% | 15.0% | 6.8% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 14.9% | 17.5% | |||||||
| Season | Advanced Measurements | ||||||||||||||
| PER | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | WS/48 | |||||||||
| Alex Len | 1 | 13.06 | 100.8 | 103.7 | 0.57 | 1.32 | 1.85 | 0.081 | |||||||
| Alex Len | 2 | 14.02 | 101.7 | 102.1 | 1.37 | 2.09 | 3.46 | 0.098 | |||||||
| Alex Len | 3 | 14.11 | 100.1 | 101.6 | 1.33 | 2.57 | 3.86 | 0.095 | |||||||
| 3 Year Average | 13.82 | 100.8 | 102.3 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 9.17 | 0.093 | ||||||||
| Overall as a rookie Alex Len projects to be a below average NBA big guy, but by his 3rd year he projects to be slightly below average. At the top of this article I discussed the shape of a players bell curve, and to understand how many of a players comps are washouts. Out of 40 comp seasons, only 3 players didn't make the league 3 years, or 7.5%. That is fairly low, which indicates the risk of him washing out a very low. It also indicates that Alex Len's 3 year projection is likely to be close to he eventual 3 year stat line. | |||||||||||||||
| As I noted above in the comp section in aggregate Alex Len looks like he will struggle on the offensive end, with an ORtg of 100.8 for his first 3 years. That is quite low for an NBA starter. His TS% a poor for a big guy 52%. His usage rate projects to be 17.5% which supports the notion that he will not be a significant offensive producer. This also supports why his PER is a clearly below average 13.82. On the defensive end though Alex Len things look different. Len projects to be a very solid NBA defender, who will make steady progress. I would like to make a comparison in contrast with Meyers Leonard. Leonard had an ORtg/Drag split of 115/110, and Len projects to be 101/104 as a rookie. This very clearly expresses the differences between the two. Leonard is excellent offensively, but clearly struggle's on the defensive end. Len will be the opposite, a defender, with limited offensive production. As far as contrasting these two in rebounding and blocks (expressed as the % of available rebounds the player gets and the % of available shots a player blocks), Leonard was 12.3%/2.4% and Len projects to be 14.9%/3.9%. | |||||||||||||||
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