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The NBA Draft Lottery airs tonight at 5:30pm (PDT) live on ESPN. Here's a primer for the event:
- The point of the lottery is to place the top three draft positions! After that, teams are simply placed in reverse order of their records. Because of that system...
- The Blazers only have a shot at picks 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12, or 13. If they end up with pick 11, 12, or 13, it means that a team (or teams) below them somehow jumped into the top three. If the Blazers plummet to the 13th pick, they lose it as part of the Gerald Wallace trade with Charlotte.
- What to watch for: Picks 10-13. If we do not hear the words "Portland Trail Blazers" by pick 10, something awesome happened.
- What's the best case scenario if the Blazers don't jump? Probably the same as always: Having the top three picks go to the Eastern Conference, this year preferably Orlando, Charlotte and Washington.
- What's the worst case scenario? The Blazers fall to 13th, losing their pick, while Utah and Dallas (along with Toronto or Philly) jump into the top three and get the best prospects. The chance of this exact scenario happening is, to put it mildly, remote.
The odds are definitely stacked against the Blazers. They have a better chance of getting the 11th pick than any of the top three combined. Here are how the percentages break down:
| Top Three (Overall): | 4.0% chance |
| First Pick: | 1.1% chance |
| Second Pick: | 1.3% chance |
| Third Pick: | 1.6% chance |
| Tenth Pick: | 87.0% chance |
| Eleventh Pick: | 8.9% chance |
| Twelfth Pick | 0.2% chance |
| Thirteenth Pick: | Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! |
Ok, those are the basics. So hang out here, speculate as the time approaches, and enjoy the lottery. As soon as the Blazers' name is announced, Ben will have a new post on the front page with the official news. -- Tim