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The Likely List

Last season we played a game that was pretty fun so I thought we should take a shot at it again.


11 events are listed below in no particular order.  Your job is to rearrange them in the order you think they are most likely to occur, starting with the most probable and ending with the least probable.  So the event you list on top is the most likely to happen of all 11 and the rest follow in order.  Got it?


Obviously these events are judged only in relationship to each other.  To provide a further clue as to what you think is realistic and what is not I'd also like you to put a "reality line" at the place you judge the actually-likely-to-happen-in-real-life events to end and the not-very-likely events to begin.


Thus if you had:


Event A

Event B

Event C

Event D


Event E

Event F



That would mean you think the first four events actually could happen while the rest probably couldn't.  Your line could come after the first event, after the seventh, even above or below the entire list if you thought all of them possible or not.


Leave an explanation along with your list if you want.


Here are the 11 events:


Sergio Rodriguez becomes a full-time NBA starter

Travis Outlaw becomes an All-Star

Nate McMillan is voted Coach of the Year

Greg Oden wins the league M.V.P.

Brandon Roy makes the Hall of Fame

Rudy Fernandez scores 40 in a game

Jerryd Bayless goes 12-12 or better from the free throw line in a game.

Martell Webster gets traded and averages 18+ for another team

Steven Hill makes this year’s opening night roster

Ike Diogu eventually finds a place in the Blazers’ 9-man rotation

Any Current Blazer wins the 6th Man of the Year award  (You can say who you think will do it if you want)


--Dave (