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Concise Draft Analogy

One last reiteration about the draft, as people all over the net seem flung fairly wide on their opinions, usually based on their opinions of Jerryd Bayless.

The brilliance of this draft doesn't hinge on how good Bayless will turn out, though obviously it looks better if he becomes a quality player.

Kevin Pritchard compared the process to poker.  Well here you go.  The Blazers made the correct move at the correct time, got their money in with the best hand, and got real value for their cards.  Inexperienced poker players evaluate play using outcomes.  If the right card flips then it must have been the right move.  Professionals know that over the long haul the right move isn't governed by the chance of the cards.  You might get lucky in a hand or two by filling that inside straight at the river but over time you'll only make money if you make the percentage plays regardless of what comes after. 

Kevin Pritchard made the right moves.

If Bayless turns out to be less than spectacular then KP hit a cooler.  So be it.  He still made the right moves.

Also...even if we end up losing this hand you have to give the guy credit for amassing enough chips that it's not going to dent our stack too much.  KP can afford to make these kind of plays because of the work he's put in so far and the assets he's acquired. This hallmark also distinguishes the pros from the also-rans.

--Dave (