One of the continually hot topics at any fan-based site is the possibility of trades. Every 4-6 months or so we like to run down the roster and assess the possibilities of players moving. We haven’t done it in a while, so that’s today’s topic.
We’re going to use several metrics to evaluate each player’s trade likelihood. Production, potential, and salary all factor in plus the player’s desirability around the league (hard to assess, but you can infer some things through news, rumors, and general knowledge of what type of players have high trade value) and the player’s value to the Blazers. We’ll season that stew with any other circumstances that might be in play.
Before somebody asks (because someone always does)…no, this contains no “inside” information. It’s not like KP calls me up and asks what I think of potential deals. Even if I did get something through the grapevine it’s extremely unlikely I could reveal it in this format without betraying somebody’s trust. It’s just an analytical look at an interesting topic.
We’ll take the players in alphabetical order. Consider the assessments ballpark. Production, for instance, takes into account a little bit of history as much as the three games this year. Value assessments are independent of contract until the written analysis.
Lamarcus Aldridge
Production: 18 pts, 8 rebs, 48% shooting
Potential: High
Contract: $4.6 million, rookie scale
League Value: High
Blazers Value: Very High
Lamarcus is young, talented, and hasn’t finished his development yet. He produces a ton for the money and is considered a franchise cornerstone. Outside of a mega-deal offer he’s not going anywhere.
Chances of Trade: Almost Nil
Nicolas Batum
Production: Not determined yet
Potential: Average-Fairly High
Contract: $1.0 million, rookie scale
League Value: Low
Blazers Value: Average-Fairly High
Nic hasn’t had time to garner attention around the league yet and most of the league passed on the chance to draft him just a few months ago. The Blazers seem enthused about his possibilities as a defending, shooting, running small forward and for a million bucks a year they’re going to let the potential play out unless someone else insists upon him as a trade add-in that would net a desirable player.
Chances of Trade: Low
Jerryd Bayless
Production: Not determined yet
Potential: Average-Fairly High
Contract: $2.0 million, rookie scale
League Value: Average-Low
Blazers Value: Average-Fairly High? (I suspect it depends on who you ask.)
Jerryd has fallen out of favor with fans as he’s not busted his way onto the rotation yet, but the experts don’t switch their opinions as quickly as fans. He’s not the kind of player other teams would go out of their way to get straight up but he’d be an enticing more-than-throw-in in a multi-player deal. The Blazers likely wouldn’t part with him until they see more of what they’ve got, though. Teams rarely trade guys they just drafted.
Chances of Trade: Low
Steve Blake
Production: 9 pts, 5 assists, 40%+ 3pt shooting
Potential: None beyond what he’s showing
Contract: $4.3 million, two years total
League Value: Low
Blazers Value: Average
Blake’s a solid guy. What you see is what you get. His trade value isn’t great but he could be another potential throw-in with benefits. Right now he’s more than serviceable for the Blazers though. He’s the only dependable true point guard they have plus a key outside shooting threat. Other players are encroaching upon his spot, however, and should the right deal come along (like for a better point guard, for instance) I don’t think they’d have problems moving him.
Chances of Trade: Low Average
Ike Diogu
Production: 6 points, 3 rebs
Potential: Maybe some, but beginning to look questionable
Contract: $2.9 million, qualifying offer ahead
League Value: Almost None
Blazers Value: Low
Ike was a throw-in to make the Jack + Rush for Bayless deal work. That’s about his value right now too. Until he shows he’s back from injury and in shape he’ll not draw much interest except as an add-on or a contract escape.
Chances of Trade: Low
Rudy Fernandez
Production: Not determined yet
Potential: Very High
Contract: $1.1 million, rookie scale
League Value: High
Blazers Value: High
Rudy is starting to open eyes and I’d be surprised if there weren’t some teams hoping to get him on the cheap. It won’t happen unless an eye-popping offer gets thrown
Chances of Trade: Very Low
Channing Frye
Production: 7 pts, 5 rebs
Potential: Average
Contract: $3.1 million, qualifying offer ahead
League Value: Average
Blazers Value: Average-Low (depending on Travis Outlaw’s situation)
Channing is still a young guy and his game is still developing. But as we’ve mentioned a hundred times he’s caught in a numbers crunch in
Chances of a Trade: Fairly High
Raef LaFrentz
Production: Buh?
Potential: Whuzzah?
Contract: $12.7 million, expiring
League Value: Extremely Low or Extremely High, depending
Blazers Value: Almost nil
We all know about the RLEC. There are a couple things to realize. First, expiring contracts aren’t universally valuable. Some teams--usually good teams--have zero interest in trading away talent for cap relief. You have to hit the right team with the right mix of talent to make it work. Second, Raef’s contract going off the books will actually give us money to spend next summer. This is not usually the case with expiring contracts. Often a team cannot let the contract expire without trading it away because its absence won’t take them under the cap anyway, so it’s useless unless traded. Not so for
Chances of a Trade: Fairly High
Greg Oden
Production: Not determined yet
Potential: Astronomical
Contract: $5 million, rookie scale
League Value: Very High
Blazers Value: Very High
Not going anywhere.
Chances of a Trade: Nil
Travis Outlaw
Production: 13 pts, 4-5 rebs
Potential: Average-Fairly High
Contract: $4 million, two years total
League Value: Average-Fairly High
Blazers Value: ???
Travis is the big wildcard in these scenarios. The Blazers have valued him fairly highly over the years and, as we said, professional opinions don’t change with the wind. On the other hand he’s not developing quickly and his potential is beginning to wear thin. He’s been rumored to be available, though he’ll hardly be thrown into a yard sale. If the Blazers believe in Travis then several other players--Webster, Batum, Frye--become more available. On the other hand if the Blazers believe some combination of those players will provide for
Chances of a Trade: Average-Fairly High
Joel Przybilla
Production: 4 pts, 9 rebs
Potential: None further
Contract: $6.3 million, three years total
League Value: Low-Average
Blazers Value: Fairly High
If Greg Oden were healthy and on his way to producing then Joel Przybilla might be a candidate for moving. Oden’s not, so Joel is not likely to go anywhere this year.
Chances of a Trade: Low
Shavlik Randolph
Production: 4 pts, 4 rebs???
Potential: Low
Contract: $0.8 million
League Value: Low
Blazers Value: Low
Shavlik wouldn’t garner much interest around the league so he’s not going anywhere except as a salary throw-in.
Chances of a Trade: Low
Sergio Rodriguez
Production: 3 pts, 2 assists
Potential: Average-Fairly High
Contract: $0.9 million, rookie scale
League Value: Low
Blazers Value: Low-Average
Sergio hasn’t produced enough to warrant much attention, save perhaps in specialized circumstances. If he plays well and earns more minutes this year he’d likely be a guy opposing GM’s call about, hoping to pry him from the Blazers’ point guard thicket. At this point, though, he’s just a back-up point guard for the Blazers. He’s only leaving as part of a multi-player deal in which he’s not the principal.
Chances of a Trade: Low
Brandon Roy
Production: 19 pts, 6 assists, 4 rebs
Potential: Average (How much higher can it go?)
Contract: $3.1 million, rookie scale
League Value: Very High
Blazers Value: Very High
This kind of production at that price, plus he’s the heart and soul of the team? Forget it.
Chances of a Trade: Nil
Martell Webster
Production: 10 pts, 4 rebs, 39% 3pt shooting
Potential: Average-Fairly High
Contract: $3.7 million, 4-5 years total
League Value: Average
Blazers Value: Average
We said over the summer that the Blazers would show a vote of confidence in some of these qualifying offer players by negotiating with them early. Martell is the first guy they signed. The contract is still quite tradable, though, so you can’t rule out a deal entirely. Still the coaching staff has mentioned his improvement and he’s an outside shooter, both of which recommend him to this team. His value may be slightly higher to the Blazers right now than it is around the league.
Chances of a Trade: Fairly Low
As you can see, the favorable mix for a trade (noteworthy talent, tradable contract, value higher elsewhere than to the team) is fairly rare on the Blazer roster right now. Relatively few Blazers as individuals fit the bill.
We mentioned that expiring contracts are not universally acceptable for trades. We should also add a caveat about potential. You can get players for young potential but the choices are limited. Usually you’re going to have to pick up a veteran or a questionable contract. Sometimes you can get other young players with potential in return. The guys you can’t get for potential are the guys you want: established stars or young guys on the cusp of exploding. I’ve heard several scenarios involving multiple Blazers for
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)