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Another Take

Neal writes in with some statistical comparisons between our Big Three and historical star players.


Blasersedge kicked off a player-by-player expectation discussion with Greg Oden.  Which got me to thinking very specifically about what kind of stats we should expect from him in his rookie year (barring injury-knock on wood).  I've been really protective of him in my mind for his rookie season thinking "let him grow into it" and "don't expect everything to happen at once."  I've probably been giving myself permission to accept a 12-8-1.5 season; Blazersedge is looking for 11-10-1.3 with 48% FG.  So Dave and I are on similar wavelengths (but I haven't gotten my hopes up for a double-double avg.).  But today I went back and looked at the rookie (or 1st starting season) stats for some of the great veteran bigs and promising young centers currently in the league:

Shaquille:        23.4  13.8  3.5
Tim Duncan:    21.1  11.9  2.5
Mourning:        21.0  10.3  3.5
Mutombo:        16.6  12.3  3.0
Garnett:           10.4   6.3  1.6 (started 1/2 season)

Gasol:             17.6  8.9  2.1
Stoudemire:      13.5  8.7  1.1
Yao:                13.5  8.2  1.8
J.O'Neal:          12.9  9.8  2.8 (5thseason, 1st with significant minutes)
D. Howard:       12.0  10.0 1.7
Bosh               11.5  7.4  1.4 (not starting)
Chandler:          9.2   6.9  1.4 [2nd season, 1st with significant(for him) minutes]

For the Hell of It:
Bill Russell:       21.0  19.6

Dave talks about how he expects Oden to under perform the large public expectations but not the Blazer faithfuls (ours).  Again, same wavelength.  Looking at those stats up there made me start to reexamine, though.  Now I don't need to list all the caveats that go with those numbers up there.  You and I both know the realities that aren't reflected in the raw stats.  All that aside, is it too much to hope for our "greatest big since Duncan came out" to perform at or near Duncan's rookie level?  Should we expect Mutomboesque numbers at least?  Is it okay to be satisfied with maybe having the next Dwight Howard or Chris Bosh instead?  Is that okay if Durant gets awesome on everybody this year?  Watch me try to drink kool-aid and stay realistic at the same time.


Notable PF's stats from their 2nd season for use in framing expectations for Aldridge.  Tim Duncan is not on the list because he has become so much a center in the current league.  Nowitzki is ON the list for smiliar reasons.

LaMa 2ndyr. expectations:
Dave's         19.0   9.5  1.5
Mine            16     8.0  1.0

Garnett:      17.0  18.1  2.1
Nowitzki:    17.5   6.4   0.8
Sheed        15.1   6.8   1.0
LaFrentz     12.4  7.9   2.2

Brand          20.1  10.1  1.6
Randolph     20.1  10.5   0.5
Odom          17.2   7.7   1.6
Bosh           16.8   8.9   1.4
A.Jefferson  16.0  10.5  1.5 (3rd season, 1st sig.min.)
Boozer        15.5  11.5  0.7
Okafor        13.2  10.0  1.9
J.O'Neal      12.9   9.8   2.8 (5th season, 1st significant minutes)

One interesting thing about compiling this list, there are a LOT of PF's out there who peaked in their 2nd or 3rd season and then dropped off significantly.  Also a lot of guys 1-5 yrs. farther into the league than LaMa who have become solid starters but it's up in the air whether or not they will progress any farther.  Okafor and Jefferson are probably the only examples of that that made my list.


Aiming for second year stats on SG's to examine B.Roy's expecations.  Put some players in other seasons to be more comparable in Minutes/Age (excluded Ginobili for the latter), excluded some players because they are under/over sized for comparison(T-Mac), and excluded others because Roy's 1st season stats eclipsed their 2nd season stats (Mobley/Maggette), but left in Joe Johnson 'cuz it felt right.  Generally I excluded large PG's, but I felt like throwing in Arenas for fun.  I could have made the same predictions as Blazersedge, but decided to go furthour out the limb just to be different.

B.Roy 2nd Season expectations:
                  PPG  APG  3P%(APG)
Dave            16.5   5.0  .350(3.0) (last numbers guessed from post
Neal             17.5   5.0  .350(3.5) (last numbers way uncertain)

Carter           25.7   3.9  .403(2.9)
Bryant          22.5   4.9  .319(2.2)(4th season)
L.Hughes      22.7   4.1  .243(2.3)
Iverson          22.0   6.2  .298(2.9)
Redd            21.7   2.3  .350(4.4)(4th season)
Allen            19.5   4.3  .393(4.5)
Pierce          19.5   3.0  .442(3.8)
Hamilton       18.1   2.9  .274(1.9)
J.Crawford     17.3   5.1  .317(6.5)(4th season)

Kev.Martin    20.2   2.2  .381(4.2)(3rd season)
Wade           24.1   6.8  .289(0.6)
Arenas         18.3   6.3  .348(3.8)
B.Gordon      16.9   3.0  .435(4.8)
J.Richardson 15.6   3.0  .368(4.1)
Joe Johnson   9.6   3.6  .333(1.4)

Thanks Neal!

--Dave (