24th August 2008.  Beijing.  Rudy Fernandez of Spain stuns observers by lighting up a team of NBA All-Stars.  With 22 points on 13 shots in only 17 minutes, Fernandez did not limit himself to scoring, adding some good defensive plays and some fine passing.  Nor, despite going 5 for 9 from distance, was his scoring limited to outside shooting.  In one stunning moment, Rudy slashed to the hoop, met the oncoming Dwight Howard, and posterized the All-Star center.  That moment is now known as “The Dunk Heard Round the World”, and the fallout from that dunk goes on this week in NBA cities.

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Everybody needs to quit fretting about Brandon.  Injuries happen, we've got good doctors and good depth.

I'd like to discuss something completely different -- what makes a good fan post?  Many times, in the comments, people will say, "This was a really good post."  Why?

I would suggest that any good fan post will have some of the following elements.  No fan post will have all of them, but to be a good one, it will have some of these elements.

1. Factual analysis.  Taking actual facts and presenting them in a way that sheds additional light on a situation.  "Brandon Roy is the greatest, YAY!" is not factual analysis.  It's fun to say, and there is nothing wrong with saying it, but it isn't what I'm talking about here.  "Brandon's ability to penetrate and score against almost anyone provides a threat to which teams must respond, giving more opportunities for our shooters to knock down open shots."  That's factual analysis.  If you want to know what I mean, perhaps you could just read through some of jksnake99's posts.
2. Thinking outside the box.  This is coming up with suggestions that haven't been discussed before, because they are so far removed from the way people have been thinking that it really is a new idea, but one which might have some merit.  Josh Childress' agent apparently thought outside the box, negotiating a very high salary AND an opt out for Childress each year.  Was his agent thinking about Portland's cap space for next year when he negotiated that opt out?  That question is thinking outside the box, too -- I haven't noticed anyone talking about Childress and the Blazers since he signed, but I think it is more likely now than it was before.
3. Respect for your readers.  Don't write in a way that conveys that you think you are better, smarter, or superior in any other way to your readers.  The fact is, some of them are probably a lot smarter than you, know basketball better than you, have a better sense of humor than you, etc.  Even I, the future ruler of the world, know I'm not the smartest person in the world, though when I rule the world, it might be dangerous to claim to be smarter.  But that's off-topic (for now).
4. Humor.  Everyone likes humor.  One of the best kinds is self-deprecating humor, where you poke fun at yourself.  You don't have to have it in a fan post, but if a fan post is a fun post, it helps. 
5. Personality.  This is a community of real people.  A fan post that reveals a little bit of your personality is appealing, because people like to know each other to some extent.  I won't give examples because there are too many.
6. Good grammar and spelling.  No, these aren't necessary for a good fan post, but they help.  Why?  Because the purpose of a fan post is to communicate something, and the rules of grammar and spelling, while quite arbitrary, are established to assist communication and help remove barriers to efficient communication.  When I visit the continent, I try to speak a little bit in the language of the people whose country I am visiting.  Why?  Because it is showing some respect to them by communicating in the terms that are familiar to them.  Using good grammar and spelling, to the best of one's ability, shows that same respect.
7. Quality writing.  This is NOT the same as grammar and spelling.  This is organizing related thoughts into paragraphs (and not horribly long ones), organizing the paragraphs into an order so that there is a reasonable progression of thought through the fan post, etc.  Read Dave's writing if you want to know what I'm discussing here.  Read some of knickfan's posts.
8. Creative writing.  This is using an unusual turn of phrase, or a creative way of expressing things.  Mortimer comes up with some classics.  Some of Dave's analogies are priceless.  Most of us just can't come up with the kind of stuff that just rolls off their fingertips, these guys have a gift.  But if you can find unusual and creative ways to express yourself, it really adds to the enjoyment of reading the fan post.
9. A good poll.  If you can come up with a good poll related to your fan post that makes people think, and provides them with enough choices to fully express their opinion on the matter, that helps, too.  I've provided an example.

That's my list.  I'm sure it isn't complete.  What else, to you, makes a good fan post?  If there are really good suggestions in the comments, and they turn green, I might even bestir myself to edit this and add them to the main fanpost.  If I'm not too lazy, that is, and if I like the person who wrote them enough.

Later additions:

A. Based on comments by 12sharks and Dave:  Stimulates conversation.  Something that will make the readers want to comment.

B. Based on a comment by KP Corleone:  Use of effects such as numbers, bullet points, headings in bold font, etc. makes a fan post more enjoyable to read.

C. Based on a comment by KP Corleone:  An effective title, snappy/succinct, that reasonable conveys what you are discussing.  If it is creative, all the better.

OK, we've seen what KP has done (so far).  This poll is based on the following assumptions:

1. No more major moves.  Diogu and/or one of Sergio/Koponen may be traded, but the rotation is pretty much set for next season.  If KP makes other significant moves, you have the right to change your prediction.

2. No major injuries.  By this, I mean that no starter misses more than 10 games and no main rotation player misses more than 20 games.

Vote in the poll, and make precise predictions in the comments.  Ties will be broken by the most accurate prediction of the number of playoff wins.

I predict 55 wins.  I also predict that we will then go on to win two playoff series, and get two wins in the WCF, for a total of 10 playoff wins.

OK, so maybe one or two people out there predicted we would buy the Hornets' pick.  And any thinking person realizes that pick is now a prime candidate for inclusion in a trade.

This means that all trade predictions/rumors prior to this move are now highly suspect.  We have a highly tradeable asset that will cost us little to include in a trade, and none of us knew about it.  Probably not even KP knew it until a couple days ago, though he probably knew it was a possibility.  If you tried to make a trade work by looking at the assets we have, we now have another one.

Somebody (I forget who) predicted we would get Augustin at 13 and trade him to Detroit for somebody or other, and they would include their pick so we could get Hickson.  Won't happen, will it?  Why?  Because if we want Hickson, we'll pick him at #27.  If that trade happens, it WON'T be in the form earlier suggested.

Any trade prediction you make is subject to being thrown completely out of kilter by a prior trade, and trades will fly fast in the next 36 hours.  Save yourself the mental effort and enjoy the ride.

It's also a little silly to predict who we'll draft, since none of us have ANY CLUE as to which picks we'll have by draft time, or who will be drafting ahead of us.  It's not like we're at #4, and we only have to predict what the three teams ahead of us will do.  There are likely to be at least 3 trades involving teams currently ahead of us, which can significantly impact who is drafted.

Does KP know who he's going to draft?  Only if he's already agreed a deal that hasn't been announced.  Otherwise, he has a list of a bunch of players, somewhat ranked in order as to how much he wants them -- and with a pretty good idea of how much he is willing to give up to get them in a trade.  And he probably has a list of about 50 veteran players that he'd like to get in a trade, if he could, and what he's willing to give up to get them.

Who is willing to deal with him?  At what price?  That's going to determine which of the 5 million possibilities will occur.  Some of them will happen.  But even KP can't predict today which ones will happen.  One trade that he thinks might happen could lead to another that he didn't anticipate at all.  There could be 5-6 player trades, 3 team trades, etc.  Maybe we'll even buy another pick. 

It's fun to talk about who we'd like to get.  But to predict precise trades or draft picks right now is crazy stuff.  I said so, so it must be true. 

Therefore, here is my prediction for the next 36 hours:  KP will do at least three things I didn't anticipate.  Since I didn't anticipate the Hornets move, that will make four for this draft.  That's about par for the course, four unanticipated moves.

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Bonus thought for all you Chris Paul dreamers out there.  Which team has an owner that is committed to winning?  New Orleans or Portland.  Think he'll notice?  Or do you think he'll be told, "We needed money because we want to extend you with a max contract."

Why is this off-topic?  It has everything to do with the Blazers and the NBA.  It is off-topic because it isn't about trading Travis or Martell or Channing or Jarrett, and it isn't about who we will draft at #13 (which probably won't happen), or about supposed trades with other people that almost certainly won't happen in the form being reported, or any of that stuff.

Maybe someone already basically said what I'm about to say, but if so, I missed it, because I was doing something unmentionable called w@rk (sorry for swearing, Dave).  This is my own special weird Blazer fan perspective on the result of the Finals.

I'm GLAD, GLAD, GLAD that Boston won.  Why, you will ask?  Especially all of you who, like me, hate the Celtics.

Very important reason #1.  K*be lost.  This is always good.

Very important reason #2.  The L@kers, after obviously having blackmailed whoever pretends to be a GM in Memphis, are the greatest medium-term threat to our dynasty.  They actually have enough talent that, on a given night, they might even BEAT us.  But there is one indisputable fact -- that team is unstable, and liable to implosion.  What (WHO?) will make it implode?  We all know.  What is liable to trigger implosion?  How about getting close enough to victory to be able to taste it, and then being blown out so badly that you know your team just isn't good enough?  How about having such a huge ego that, if you know your team isn't good enough, it must be someone else's fault, not yours?  The results of the Finals were a huge push towards the edge of the cliff for one particular individual.  Not just the results, but the way it happened.  This is GOOD, VERY GOOD. 

Very important reason #3.  I have been concerned about the future.  Specifically, after we win the next 15 championships in a row, where is the motivation to go on?  Might it all become old hat?  Kind of like hoping someone would actually threaten Lance Armstrong in the Tour de France.  But now, the Celtics have stepped up and helped in this.  By winning their 17th championship, all that changed.  Because, of course, we have one now, and 15 more will give us 16.  So this result has virtually guaranteed motivation to continue winning for at least two more years after the next 15.  By the time we hit 17 championships in a row, and 18 total, surpassing Boston, I'll be old and decrepit, and probably won't care so much.  Thank you, Celtics, for giving me something to look forward to as I'm slipping into old age.

So, work is killing me, and I never make it here these days.  I get to scan through to catch the news every couple of days, but I never have any time for anything.

This is a drag, right?  A real downer.  I mean, I could be discussing L*kers v Celtics .  Never mind, that's not so bad to miss.  But, I could be discussing, say, Tim Don@ghy (I love that the spammers' screen grabbing software will pick up that email address).  Well, ok, I don't want to discuss him, either.

I could read another 497 trade proposals while waiting for the draft, or 743 posts analyzing why we should draft guys that KP isn't going to draft.  Hmmm.

OK, so maybe it isn't such a bad time to have to work so much.  That way, I also don't have to read a lot about Hillary and Obama pretending the last 8 months was all a game that didn't matter (blech!).

Sigh.

It is too bad about missing all the Rudy conversation.  That should have been good for a few snarky comments about Euros and people who live there.  Oh, well.  I'll have lots of opportunities over the next few years, especially when we bring Koponen over to run the point.  Back to work.  Again.

I do.  I remember how we won a lot of games using a zone defense that teams struggled to break down.

It seems, however, that lots of us forget the zone from time to time.

1. "Greg Oden will be in foul trouble a lot his rookie year."  How many times have we heard that?  But a zone protects individual players from being targeted for foul trouble by the opposition to the same extent.  I think the "foul-prone" argument is way over-blown, but if it becomes a problem, expect to see Nate use a zone quite a bit.

2. "Our bigs are going to be in foul trouble because quick PGs are going to get into the lane all the time and draw fouls."  Ever hear that one?  Remember the zone.  It's hard to penetrate against a well-organized zone.  You beat a zone by moving the ball and finding the open man.  If quick PGs are penetrating at will, expect to see the zone.

3. "We need a super-quick defensive PG to keep quick PGs from running riot."  Now, I would like us to have exactly that, a super-quick defensive PG, and I hardly care if he ever scores.  But need?  I remember the zone.  Good team defense can help you with a quick PG who is going on a tear.

A zone has flaws.  A good-shooting NBA team which is willing to patiently move the ball will find the open shot and punish you.  You can't live by the zone forever.  But it can help you solve some of the problems that people want to make major trades to solve, and some of the problems (like Oden fouling) that people are worried about.

Every team will have weaknesses.  A good coach will find ways to minimize your weaknesses, and maximize your strengths.  A zone is one of the tools at his disposal.  The more strengths you have, the easier it is to hide your weaknesses.

This roster, as it stands now, will be a very, very good team.  And Nate and his assistants will find both offensive and defensive schemes to take advantage of what we have.

If we make a trade to upgrade our defensive skills at the point, or acquire Calderon, who is perhaps even worse defensively than what we have now, Nate will adjust defensive schemes accordingly.

We don't HAVE to make a trade to address our weaknesses.  It will be better if we can make a good trade that does.  But remember the zone.  We have coaches who can figure something out.  We are not slaves to our weaknesses anymore.  We have too many strengths on this team for that, now. 

In future, other teams will be at least as concerned with counteracting/neutralizing our strengths as they will be with exploiting our weaknesses.  We're that kind of team, now.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24586773/

Michael Ventre of MSNBC lists his players.  Few surprises in his top 5 -- Kobe, Lebron, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Deron Williams.  Any one of those guys would be a good starting point, for sure.  Perhaps Deron Williams isn't quite at the same level as the other four at this point in time, but I'd be persuaded to take him if Utah waived him.  I think he'd be good enough for us.

But then comes the interesting part, what he calls the "other players receiving votes".  And the very first one he mentions in this category is....

Greg Oden.

His comment: 

Yes, I know. He hasn’t played yet for the Portland Trail Blazers. But if he’s the kind of center everybody thought he’d be coming out of Ohio State, he’s definitely a player you would want to build around.

Other players in this category?  Tony Parker, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Yao Ming, and....

Brandon Roy.

Smart, young, level-headed, gifted versatile guard who made a seamless transition to the NBA and still has lots of upside.

Out of his top 12 players to build a team around, only one team has two of them.  And it isn't Pau and Kobe on the L*kers, or Paul and someone else on the Hornets.  That's right, we are the only team that has two of his top 12 players to build around.  And it's hard to find many teams whose third player is really a better option for the future than LMA.

It's a great, great time to be a Blazer fan.

One of the interesting impacts of the Darius Miles retirement is that acquiring a free agent this year is not out of the question.

Before the retirement, the likelihood of us doing so was probably nil.  We are still over the cap, of course (thank you, Steve Francis), but the savings in tax from jettisoning Darius' salary means we can use our MLE to acquire a decent veteran (similar to the Steve Blake signing last year).

This would impact our cap space in 09, but we'll still be better off in 09 than we would be if Miles had stayed.  If the cap space is used to acquire role players, rather than another max player, and a role player that KP wants is available now, he may take that step.  Obviously, you aren't going to get an all-star for the MLE, but you can get a solid role player.  So I have two questions:

1. Are there any free agents out there that you think we could get for the MLE that you think would help our team as currently constructed?
2. Are there any free agents out there that you think we could get for the MLE that you like and would be glad to see us acquire in the event that we make a major trade and team needs change?

The second question is based on the premise that it is possible that any players except the big 3 might be traded away for a quality PG or SF.  If that happens, we could have holes at backup C, backup PF, SF, backup SG, or PG.  So, depending on the nature of the major trade, a MLE free agent at any position could be of value to us.

Are there any you like?

Edit: I forgot to ask.  Someone suggested a while back that we could trade our #13 and $3 million of Paul Allen's money for the #12, then trade that plus cash for the #11, etc.  Brilliant idea.  Anyone remember who it was, or which thread?  I can't find it....

This is it, make or break time.

These two teams are tied.  After this game, each team has 2 home games and 1 road game left.

If the Nuggets win tonight, they win the season series 3-1, and win the tie-breaker.  The Warriors would have to finish ahead of the Nuggets to make the playoffs.

Dallas provides no hope for the Warriors.  If the Warriors lose tonight, the best they can get is 50 wins, and Dallas already has 49 -- and they own the tiebreaker (head to head, 3-1).  

If the Warriors lose tonight, put a fork in them.  They're done.  They would have to win out and either have Dallas lose out, or have Denver lose 2 of 3.  Won't happen.  If the Warriors lose, Dallas and Denver are in.

If the Warriors win, it's more interesting.  It puts them up by one with 3 games left.  Head to head, they would be 2-2.  The next tiebreaker is conference record, and if the Warriors win, the two teams will have identical conference records (28-21).  However, the only way Denver could then catch the Warriors is by winning one more game than GS, which would give them a better conference record.  So if the Warriors win tonight to go up by one, and they then end up tied after 3 more games, Denver wins the tiebreaker.  Denver still has a chance if the Warriors win tonight -- they need to make up one game on the Warriors over the next three.

What about Dallas?  Dallas could still get dragged into the muck, if the Warriors win tonight.  That would give Golden State 48 wins, maximum 51, and Denver 47, maximum 50.  Dallas has 49 wins with four games left:
Utah (home)
Portland (away)
Seattle (away)
New Orleans (home)

Three of those could be very tough games.  Portland wants that winning record, we'll come to play.  Even Seattle is the kind of game that can trip you up (ask Denver).  Fortunately for Dallas, the two really tough ones are at home.  

What happens if Dallas stumbles and ends up in a tie with Denver for the last spot?  Denver won the season series 2-1, and Dallas is out.  Dallas needs two wins to be safe, or one win to be safe if the Warriors lose tonight.

What happens in a 3-way tie?  Warriors are out, even if they win tonight's game.  Basically, the Warriors lose on tiebreakers in any scenario, so they have to finish ahead of at least one of the other two teams.  49 wins will probably not get them in, and 50 might not.

Warriors remaining games (after tonight):
Clippers (home)
Phoenix (away)
Seattle (home)

Nuggets remaining games (after tonight):
Utah (away)
Houston (home)
Memphis (home)

The remaining schedule perhaps favors Golden State slightly, if they win tonight.  I doubt Utah will be looking to do the Nuggets any favors.

If Dallas wins at home against Utah and the Warriors lose tonight, Dallas will have already clinched their spot when they come to Portland.  If the Warriors should win tonight, and Dallas loses their home game to Utah, the Mavs will be feeling the heat when they show up at the Rose Garden.  They will need two wins out of three games to be sure of being safe, and they won't want it to come down to the final game against the Hornets.