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Game 62 Preview: Blazers vs. Bucks

Despite their relatively weak 23-38 record the Bucks are not a team to be taken lightly.  Mainly this is because they are capable of scoring a ton of points.  (Our meeting earlier in the year in Portland, for instance, yielded a 117-114 overtime victory for the Blazers and they have scored 105+ 18 times this year, including their 118-point performance in their last game against the Sonics.)  Normally this is the part of the preview where I would elucidate why the Bucks can be dangerous but they have a problem.  It looks like this:

Michael Redd, 23.4 ppg, day-to-day with a lacerated nose.
Mo Williams, 17.8 ppg, missed the last game with an abdominal strain
Yi Jianlin, 8.9 ppg, missed the last game with an ankle injury

I have not heard concrete news if any of these guys will be playing or not.  Missing any two would severely hamper Milwaukee's chances.  Heck, missing Redd would be a major problem all on its own.

Why?  

A.  Despite their occasional firepower the Bucks still only average a hair under 96 points per game.  They can't spare a single one of those either, because...

B.  The Bucks are a bad, nasty, stinky-like-Yoplait-left-in-the-fridge-two-years defensive team.  They don't quite give away the eye-popping numbers like the 2006-07 Wizards or 2007-08 Warriors, but they still manage to cede opponents 102.2 ppg.  Worse they allow 47.2% shooting from the floor overall and 38% shooting from the three-point line.  I've watched a few games and believe me, they don't close out, they don't collapse down, and they couldn't intimidate a newborn hamster if they were carrying a cattle prod.  Memphis allows a greater field goal percentage and Indiana a greater three-point percentage, but that's it.  They're trying to stop Panzers with Kleenex.

Milwaukee's main danger point for us is their offensive rebounding.  They're good at it and they shoot well enough to make us pay if we give them second chances.  Their perimeter players can also hit deep shots, so we'll need to close out.  Andrew Bogut can be dangerous but the recently-extra-tenacious Joel Przybilla should be able to blunt some of his effectiveness providing Joel can stay out of foul trouble.  Speaking of fouling, the Bucks don't draw near as many foul shots as they give up, and this should be another area where we take advantage.

What I'd Like to See

  1.  I'd really like to see Redd out, that's what.  I don't care about chivalry, I'd like the best chance possible of a win.
  2.  Work for shots!  Inside or outside doesn't matter too much against this team...they'll let you have both.  Just get an open one.  You KNOW they are there for the taking.  Don't settle for rushed or stupid offense.
  3.  Clean up on the defensive glass.  Get bodies on Bogut and Villanueva!
  4.  Our perimeter players should be able to draw fouls off the dribble.
  5.  You have to close out, especially if Milwaukee is at full strength.  I take my chances single-covering any of their inside guys.  They can hurt you but probably not take the game from you.  The real danger is letting their perimeter players free for open looks.  
  6.  This road trip may be the single most important determining factor deciding whether we finish the season decently or miserably.  There's only one other stretch that offers a reasonable opportunity for a run of 4 wins in 5 games.  If we blow this one that next one won't matter except maybe to get us even.  I expect us to come out with energy, confidence, and to be prepared to set the tone and take the lead in this game.  This is not the time to check as if we were afraid of our opponent's hand. It's time to get the chips in and see if we can make a little more scratch before we call it a night.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Never, ever...
Underestimate the power of Kleenex. It says right there that it is strong enough for "everyday use".

If stopping Panzers doesn't qualify for everyday use, then nothing will.


                   Panzer killing power!

"I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled." -P.G. Wodehouse

by T Darkstar on Mar 6, 2008 9:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

A Jeeves and Wooster sig
priceless!
Wishing we'd play with Ruben Patterson-like abandon is like asking the chess club to smash beer cans on their heads. - Dave

by jamon51 on Mar 7, 2008 12:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Forward! Follow me! Charge!
They were polish, you know. They used swords when they needed can openers.

"You, my friend, are an enigma" (einman77)

by amlmart1 on Mar 7, 2008 3:02 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Kleene is actually an effective tank stopper.
Soak it in acetelyene and stick it in the engine air intake.

by timg56 on Mar 7, 2008 7:50 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Dave
As a poker player, your analogies help me to understand the other game I love.

It's ALL-IN time baby!

"Life is a meaningless sequence of events in between Blazer championships"

by broggerboy19 on Mar 7, 2008 9:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, it really is at this time of the season
We have to make one more attempt at a push.  If it fails we can start considering the last few games a "developmental/see what we have next year" endeavor (kind of like the entire 1/3 of last season).  But we don't want to do that until we've left everything out on the table.

--Dave

by Dave on Mar 7, 2008 12:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"Leav[ing] everything out on the table"
What does leaving everything out on the table entail?

I'm all in favor in trying to win games, but not at the cost of injuring players.

While there is some merit in playing through minor bumps and bruises, I think this push/leave everything on the table approach may result in significant injuries to a number of players.

First and foremost, I think playing Roy 40+ minutes a game is too many for a healthy body let alone one with an ankle sprain and heel injuries.  I don't know how bad LMA's plantar fasciitis is, but, again, forcing major minutes may be short-sighted.  Is his miserable shooting percentage in recent games related to playing on bad feet?  While he did play through it, it appeared that Travis was hampered by a sprain the last game.  When James Jones's knee was bothering him, his shooting was off.  Sometimes it is better to take time off to recover rather than doing this macho "leave everything on the table" [including your long-term health] approach.

Management of professional sports tend to use up players like kleenex (back to that analogy).  Why would the Blazers risk injury to Walton (and Bobby Gross) when they were 50-10?  Because wins are worth leaving everything on the table, especially when you aren't risking your everything.

I'm not saying we tank and pull everything of value off the floor, but let's not get so hung up on wins that we end the season with Pyrrhic victories (one last military analogy).

by vcubed on Mar 7, 2008 2:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Coach´s prestige?
"The man with a theory"

by amlmart1 on Mar 7, 2008 5:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Word on the street is...
No Mo Williams and no Yi Jianlian for tonight's game. Didn't hear anything about Redd so I'll assume he's playing.
fateorfortune.net // support independent music!

by avalonzero on Mar 7, 2008 2:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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