Read These Links At Your Own Risk

by Ben. on Mar 19, 2008 8:20 PM PDT in News

Here's a great article/interview about the upcoming draft with Kevin Pritchard, courtesy of Wendell Maxey at Hoopsworld.com.

In the interview, Mr. Pritchard says, "I look at the draft as risk assessment as much as anything." A pretty conservative way to look at the draft, all things considered.

This statement seems a wee bit different from a public statement he gave to Quick last June in which Quick writes, "Pritchard labels himself as "a risk taker" who is "not afraid to go against the current."

While these two comments are not entirely mutually exclusive, the transformation in Pritchard's public stance is worth noting. Consider me even more intrigued.

Comments

Shoot

BlazerDancers lost to Nuggetgirls in a dance off. http://www.nba.com/features/dance08_west1_por_v_den.html?bid=NBADANCE08_hp

by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 19, 2008 10:48 PM PDT 0 recs

Risk taker/risk assessment

There is no conflict or transformation here.

There are two kinds of risk takers -- fools, and those who assess the risks first. If he had a cautious approach, he wouldn't even bother to assess the risks. It is because he is prepared to take risks that he needs to assess them.

To say the draft is largely about risk assessment is not conservative. KP is very aggressive in the draft, but his aggressiveness is based on thorough evaluation of potential upside and downside. So far, he looks like a genius.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 20, 2008 1:09 AM PDT 0 recs

Well Put

Here's where I see a transformation in his public statements, not necessarily a change in his methodology or approach. "Transformation" might be too big of a word. Perhaps, "shift" is better.

During the height of the draft frenzy talk last year, there was a common idea circulating that KP was a singular talent, who bucked "conventional wisdom" and took risks in finding players other teams might dismiss or overlook or, most commonly, be afraid to draft. Most of this assessment was, of course, fueled by media/commentators rather than KP himself. However, during the draft runup, most likely in an attempt to keep interest at peak levels, KP did make comments like the one I cited, stating his desire to take risks and think outside the box.

This year, in the early draft run-up, KP is saying, essentially, we are being thorough and we are playing the risk assessment game. Certainly, someone who is assessing risks is better able to take risks, but in the NBA (where conventional wisdom almost always settles on the path of least riskiness), I got the sense that his priorities might be different this time around.

And, a point I was trying to hint at is: his priorities and approach should be different this time around.

This year, we are not one of the worst teams in the league getting ready to jettison our start and rebuild. We are a playoff-quality team looking for an extra piece or two to complete the puzzle. To me, this year is not the time to take big risks (drafting Europeans, projects, etc.).

As you may have read, I love KP. His track record is not flawless, although when it comes to his top-of-the-draft picks it has been pretty doggone good (as good as anyone in the league). I trust that he recognizes the change in his team's position and abilities and that his statements reflect a change or shift in focus this time around.

Here's an example: given Rudy's latest comments and behavior, was taking him last year a result of fully assessing risks and weighing all the evidence? Or, was it a riskier play, one in which KP hoped to change Rudy's mind about coming to the NBA? I would lean toward the latter, as Rudy's star power and contract status in Europe is a significant risk for an NBA franchise and one that was a deterrent for those bound by conventional wisdom or by franchise situations in which they were looking to get better now, like the Blazers are this year.

I think the Rudy pick was a great pick for the Blazers last year; were it to happen this time around, I would be left scratching my head.

For more pictures and videos, check out the BlazersEdge Facebook group and www.youtube.com/blazersedgeben

by Ben. on Mar 20, 2008 8:57 AM PDT up 0 recs

If I recall correctly,

The comments KP made last June about being a risk taker and going against the grain were in relation to choosing between Oden and Durant. Conventional wisdom was that you always take the big man in that situation unless you know that the smaller player is clearly superior. My take was that he was hinting that he indeed just might buck the wisdom and take Durant. It was also my belief that he said it at the time mostly as a smoke screen to keep the media guessing and buzzing...

by R11 on Mar 20, 2008 9:57 AM PDT up 0 recs

I'm not sure I agree, Ben

I suppose it depends on how optimistic you are about the players we have. I'm very optimistic about our young SFs, and about our starting and backup bigs. I'm also optimistic that one of our young PGs is going to step up behind Blake next year, and that Koponen is going to be a long term solid PG for us. So I'm happy to see KP swing for the fence and try to hit a home run, because I think we have the players that could contend for a championship right now, and don't need anything.

I think it is going to be hard for a #13 pick to get playing time on this team.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 20, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up 0 recs

good points

you both have me re-thinking this, so thanks for the debate!

i think your optimism is a good thing but you are right to say it leads us to a fundamental difference on strategy this year.

i agree mostly with the exception of koponen and our PG situation. i started the season thinking jack was a playoff quality PG this year, now i am questioning that. i love blake but in my view his ideal role is as backup PG.

complicating this, i think i have a tendency towards doubting foreign players, so there is a built-in big-time bias here on my end.

in general i am neutral-negative on foreign picks. i think this puts me at odds with you, KP, and many others on blazers edge. as a fan i am willing to admit that it will only take 1 young euro making it on the blazers to change my opinion on this completely. :)

this stems mostly from how accurately one can evaluate foreign players as their performance and objectives are so different from those of high school and college players here and the struggles it takes integrating foreign talent into the locker room, the salary cap, and more.

taking all of this into account: i would be a proponent of trading as many of our picks this year as possible with the goal of keeping our roster as intact as possible while adding 2 veteran pieces. we are short roster spots and we have good talent that is developing here in Portland (as you mentioned). tinkering too much with that is a bad thing.

however, seeing green go for nothing, sergio getting no playing time, mcroberts up and down to idaho, etc. leads me to believe that drafting young players and adding them to the bottom of the roster (the only place they will fit in)doesn't do us much good. even if they do develop, they will still be stuck behind our core players. minutes get very tight.

especially considering all the european players we have waiting in the wings,
as constructed, i do not think this team is championship quality next year, simply by aging a year. playoffs, for sure, but not quite there yet. i think that a little more veteran moxey (a la james jones) from role players that wouldn't get or need major minutes would go a long, long way on this club. that would be priority A1 for me entering the draft.

if and only if we are unable to trade our picks, i think we should look at hitting the home run as you call it. but with the number of players we've got stocked in europe and the full rotation we already have, this strategy becomes more like hitting a hole in one...

For more pictures and videos, check out the BlazersEdge Facebook group and www.youtube.com/blazersedgeben

by Ben. on Mar 20, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up 0 recs

Not champions next year

Next year is still learning what we've got. How will Greg mesh in, etc.

Do we really have an answer at SF? Do we have an answer at PG after all?

By the end of next year, we'll know. Probably by the middle of next year, so there may be a mid-year trade. But if not, we'll spend on free agent(s) to fill the hole(s).

Especially if Darius is gone, we'll have lots of money to spend (easy for me to say, not my money), and all the questions will have answers by the end of summer 09 -- no matter who we draft this year. So I see little loss in gambling a little with the pick.

I still won't be surprised to see us trade up to get one of the top 3-4 PGs, though. What we most need is one who can really play defense, and that doesn't take years to learn.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 20, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up 0 recs

As someone who has done risk assessment

I was going to say pretty much the same thing.

But jscot, with the advantage of an earlier timezone, already has pointed this out.

by timg56 on Mar 20, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up 0 recs

My other advantage

I work in the financial sector, which means I'm thinking about this stuff all the time.

I'm frequently right, but always certain

by jscot on Mar 20, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up 0 recs

Let's not forget to include

your natural genius, or your being a man of the world.

..... possibly THE man of the world, if you have your way.

by timg56 on Mar 21, 2008 7:54 AM PDT up 0 recs

IndyCornrows

It's too bad they don't have bigger readership. I recognized a couple of names from the comments - and neither are Indy fans, just basketball fans. Then I clicked on a diary that wasn't too far down - I said, "huh?" and checked the date - Feb. 1. Wonder how many diaries have passed through BE since Feb 1...

Blazer fans - for better or for worse.

"The art of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook." - William James.

by jorga on Mar 20, 2008 7:12 AM PDT 0 recs

Oscar Robertson is the man!

There isn't a game that I watch thinking BRoy might be the second coming of Mr Outside.

Well, if they ever settle on a point guard, they age out the three cancerous contracts they're holding, Nate matures as a coach, and, and, and, and...

Maybe that isn't realistic. OR did most of his damage on his own, but didn't win the ring until KC inexplicably let him go.

Thanks for the article pointer, I almost always skip east coast sports sections for some reason. (grin)

by Farty MacFartson on Mar 20, 2008 9:41 AM PDT 0 recs

No win situation?

The middle part of Eggers article about the Blazer's record and upcoming schedule brings up something I've been thinking about lately. This is a strange year in the West and it really plays against the Blazers. Even if we win the games we should win through the end of March (getting the record somewhere around the .500 mark), they will still be faced with the murders row of opponents in April...

Normally at the end of the season you would likely find a few of those teams coasting and resting their stars up for the playoffs. This season it's quite likely that they will all be fighting it out right down to the wire as they jockey for playoff positioning, since they are all so closely bunched up in the standings. The Blazers probably won't catch any breaks down the stretch. Realistically they could close out the season losing the large majority of their games over the last two weeks.

Even if they do play strong and get these games at the end of March (creating good will and again pushing expectations back up), a poor finish against tough, motivated teams is bound to give the fickle, less realistic fans a bad taste to the end of the season. Hopefully those people will be able to take the season as a whole, recognize the major achievement it has been, and not spark a bunch of gloom and doom grousing.... Yeah, I know, hell could freeze over soon too ;-).

by R11 on Mar 20, 2008 10:21 AM PDT 0 recs

I wouldn't bet on it.

Some people are never happy. Look at all the complaining and criticism we see here.

If Portland closes the season 1 - 7 (which is a distinct possibility), you will see all sorts of whining here at BE, and suggestions of just what Pritchard needs to do to save the team.

As if Pritchard needs our help in deciding what to do.

by timg56 on Mar 21, 2008 7:58 AM PDT up 0 recs