Game 52 Non-Recap

by Dave on Feb 13, 2008 11:05 PM PST in News

Hey folks, we could talk about a lot of things that went wrong tonight: a general lack of focus and energy, offensive spacing that made the Mavericks look like all-world defenders, missing 50% of our free throws (again!), letting loose the only two guys guaranteed to score for them for 37 and 24 respectively, being forced to play weird lineups like Sergio, Jarrett, Brandon, Travis, and Channing. You could also talk about a couple good things...Brandon and points in the paint mostly. Here's the boxscore if you care to see it.

The short story of a too-long game appeared to be that we started our much-needed All-Star break rest one game early. We're not the first team to do that and we won't be the last.

So forget all that and let's move on to the bigger picture. We're four games above .500 at the All-Star break. We have only 32 games left in the season and it's looking near certain that we'll finish with our best record in ages.

Here's a brief statistical comparison between where we are now and where we ended last year:

Scoring: 95.8 ppg, 20th in the league-- better by 1.7 points and 9 spaces
Opponent Scoring: 95.6, 9th in the league-- better by 2.8 points and 5 spaces
Point Differential: +0.2, 14th in the league-- better by 4.5 points and 13 spaces
Field Goal Percentage: 14th in the league-- better by 9 spaces
Opponent Field Goal Percentage: 4th in the league-- better by 21 spaces
Three Point Percentage: 5th in the league-- better by 19 spaces
Assists: 16th in the league-- better by 14 spaces
Steals: 30th in the league-- worse by 5 spaces
Blocks: 22nd in the league-- worse by 5 spaces
Turnovers: 6th in the league-- better by 7 spaces
Opponent Turnovers: 29th in the league-- worse by 1 space
OVERALL RECORD: 19th in the league-- better by 5 spaces

And again, not to beat a dead horse, but all this without one of the main players we built the team around.

I see a lot of people asking what's going on in light of this recent losing jag. What's going on is we're doing much better than we did last year, which in turn was much better than years before.

We need some rest. We need to regroup and refocus. We need to make a stronger run down the stretch than we have in these last 15 games. All of that is possible.

There's a danger that we could lose confidence and spend the rest of the season in a tailspin. If that does happen remember this is exactly what we've seen in the last few seasons. It's not the end of the world. What we've seen and done already is something to build on even if we can't quite fulfill the promise we showed a couple months ago for a full season. And that's the worst-case scenario. I'm betting this team will end up being much better than worst-case.

Even a relatively poor 10-20 finish puts us at 38 wins for the year. That's near the higher end of what most reasonable people were predicting at the start of the season.

That's the point...no matter how you slice it this season isn't going to turn out that bad. So our outlook on the team shouldn't be that bad either. There's been plenty to hang our hats on so far and I'm guessing we'll have even more before the season is over.

Yes, we're suffering from some bad stretches of play, but realistically that was going to happen. So far the good has outweighed the bad significantly. We are on target. We are progressing. That is the message to take into the All-Star break.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Comments

thanks for the upbeat post

I needed it.

Our last solid, complete performance was the double OT loss to Toronto.

I want that team back.

by jksnake99 on Feb 13, 2008 11:11 PM PST reply actions

me too

thanks for not being afraid to say it. I want that team back too!!! !!! !!! !!! !!!

by mark twain on Feb 13, 2008 11:12 PM PST up reply actions

thanks dave

thanks for putting things in perspective. You are very good at staying level headed. I suppose this is why you run this site, and I simply look at it... all the time. Anyway, you're right, even if we finish the season at a .333 we still end up with a decent record. I hope we can win at least 40 games, just for good measure. I don't think we'll make the playoffs (barring another wacky win streak), but I feel getting over the 40 win hump this year would be oh so awesome!

by mark twain on Feb 13, 2008 11:12 PM PST reply actions

Dude

40 games would be AMAZING. 40 exactly is one shy of .500 ball. You saw those numbers Mike Barrett was throwing around earlier in the season about teams as young as we are. There have been two and I don't think their COMBINED win totals equalled 40. Even if we only win 10-12 more games we are watching a history-making season...from a team playing with one hand tied behind its back.

I'm not being pie-in-the-sky here. Believe me, I see everything people are saying about how the last 6-7 games have gone. We're flat and playing pretty poorly. I don't like it any more than the next guy. But that still doesn't change what they've shown us.

This is what has always kind of bugged me about the playoff talk. It would be super-cool to make the playoffs. But that is SUCH a stratospheric leap and people talk about it so casually, like it was the expectation and as simple as a lineup adjustment or two. I mean, they could still do it, but if that ever happened every single person in Blazer Nation should be down on their knees bowing and chanting in homage. It would be SUCH a difficult thing to do! But the casual, throw-away expectation and its cousin the enthusiastic confidence that it's going to happen kind of dim the significance of what IS happening. It's like a plain old sanitation engineer guy scores a date with Charlize Theron and he's all mad because it wasn't Scarlett Johansson. HELLOOOOOOOOO? (smack, smack, smack)

So yeah, I didn't enjoy watching the last four games but overall I've had a lot more joy and excitement out of this season so far than I have had misery. And I expect that will continue through Game 82 because that seems to be how this team is wired.

--Dave

by Dave on Feb 13, 2008 11:33 PM PST up reply actions

Going 14 - 16 the rest of the way is within reason

That would put us at 42 wins. I believe that's right in the middle of where most folks were predicting us to be with Oden in the lineup.

As for the critics, whiners and folks with play-off asperations, the most appropriate response is to note how the Internet increases exponentially the opportunity for people to advertise how idiotic or lacking in knowledge they are.

So whatif there are nights like last night where I stopped watching at the end of the 3rd quarter. This team has already provided me with one of the most enjoyable seasons in a long while and has me excited in a way I can't recall ever being for any other team.

by timg56 on Feb 14, 2008 7:01 AM PST up reply actions

Right on TimG ...

and Dave!

by TwoDeep on Feb 14, 2008 8:04 AM PST up reply actions

Amen!

I love this team right here, winning or losing. I don't need a championship (or even the playoffs) to enjoy being a Blazer fan right now.

Free Sergio! http://www.freesergio.com

by sergioFTW on Feb 13, 2008 11:15 PM PST reply actions

hear

hear!

by abdelnaby on Feb 14, 2008 5:08 AM PST up reply actions

FG% Allowed

The most striking stat you gave was FG% allowed. 4th in the league for a small team that doesn't block shots or rough people up? Amazing. You don't think of the Blazers as having outstanding defenders, and yet...

Our improvement in defensive FG% warms my heart more than all the other stats put together.

by Engineering Problem on Feb 14, 2008 12:06 AM PST reply actions

The Problem

as Mike Rice has so eloquently stated, is that the improved FG% defense is coming at the cost of aggressiveness, forcing turnovers, and in some ways tempo. That's necessary this year, I think. If you have to choose between stopping shots and taking risks to jump-start the tempo I think you have to choose stopping shots. Not all of those risks will pan out and this team doesn't have enough texture and experience to compensate when they don't. We'd be getting blown out by 20 half the time. But eventually we need a defense that can stop people PLUS force some turnovers and allow people to leak out a little.

It's actually as good of a description of the Blazers this year as any: we do a lot of good things, but each one comes at a cost that more experienced and/or better teams don't have to pay as much.

--Dave

by Dave on Feb 14, 2008 12:13 AM PST up reply actions

Zone Defense

Which, though it may cause the other team to shoot more outside shots, it also makes it tougher to rebound.

As we've seen.

by leeroyjenkins on Feb 14, 2008 6:43 AM PST up reply actions

I never thought about the effect of the zone

on defensive rebounding. I guess I don't see how it would make a difference. What is the effect? More difficult to box out?

Good observation.

by timg56 on Feb 14, 2008 7:09 AM PST up reply actions

Exactly

With a zone defense you're guarding an area rather than a man so when the shot goes up it's more difficult to find a man to put your body on in order to screen him out.

With a man to man defense you have the guy right there and you're between him and the basket. All you have to do is keep it that way.

by jon @ Blazer's Edge on Feb 14, 2008 8:50 AM PST up reply actions

Yea,

It's more difficult to box out. In the zone, there is not always a player right by you that you are guarding, so when a shot goes up you have go find a player to box out.

The Rose Garden is our House.

by JTDuck22 on Feb 14, 2008 8:50 AM PST up reply actions

And....

You have to make sure that you are finding the right man to box out. If both you and a teammate move to box out the same man, by the time you recognize what has happened, the guy who wasn't getting boxed (because you both went for someone else) has position.

by jscot on Feb 14, 2008 9:49 AM PST up reply actions

Isn't the solution to this

using a "zone" box out strategy? The low post players are assigned a zone and a spot. They just have to worry about getting there first.

I realize it may not be as effective, but it is doable.

by timg56 on Feb 14, 2008 10:40 AM PST up reply actions

I believe

That that is indeed what they basically do, but like you said it isn't as effective. And I wouldn't call most of our guys "natural" rebounders, or the best at boxing out, so the problems compound each other.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Feb 14, 2008 11:00 AM PST up reply actions

Great post Dave

I knew that raising expectations was a bad idea rather than enjoying the moment. I really appreciate the perspective you have given here. This is a blessing just being a part of the amazing growth of the team. I get so down when I come to this site lately, I was really getting tired of seeing all the unwarranted negativity. It's such a shame too, this is usually such a great site to come to. This post was a welcome breath of fresh air. Please keep helping us bewildered Blazer fans keep our eyes on the horizon.

by einman77 on Feb 14, 2008 12:36 AM PST reply actions

This is what I say too

This season has already been a huge success and show that after some seasoning and adding one heaping tablespoon of GREG ODEN, this will be a very, very good team in the near future.

When I read some critiques of the team on sites like ESPN or whatever (from normal commenters, not articles), they'll say something like "oh even if they make the playoffs, big deal. They won't last past the 2nd round"-- as if that isn't a huge accomplishment. Just being in the playoff TALK is huge for a team that sets a new record for wins, for a team this young, every time they win... and all without the era defining center everyone has been waiting for since he was in 8th grade.

Most other years, being over .500 is good enough for the playoffs. We happen to be playing so well in a year where the West has crazy parity, where there are only two actually bad teams. This is annoying because it will make it that much harder to make the playoffs, but it's good because we've still done so well against very stiff competition... all of them having battle tested, expensive veterans, where if they don't win it all within two years they are done.

We can miss the playoffs this year, but it's only our beginning. Teams this young without their Shaq, their Duncan, their Russell, their Hakeem... they don't win more than they lose. It just shows how special this team is going to be, because a guy like Oden will be overkill.

I know a lot of us get down when the games have sucked over the past few days, but I'd say fatigue and tiredness and ouchies are a good enough excuse. The Allstar break is coming at exactly the right time. The only guy who doesn't seem that affected (though he prolly is) will be enjoying a taste of the big time in New Orleans, and everyone else can rest up and get totally AMPED (in a rad way) for the last 30.

High 30's without Oden was a total homer pick early in the year. Winning 40 would be insane. Might not mean playoffs, but the strong foundation has already been set no matter what else happens this season. We've already won.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Feb 14, 2008 12:38 AM PST reply actions

Huge success

With long term ramifications.

When we make a trade sometime between now and draft day, and we will, we will get higher value for the players we trade because of the success of this season.
The success of the team without Oden is truly terrifying other teams, and is perhaps a factor in some of the trades going on right now. Dallas and Phoenix are shortening their horizons to try to win a championship in the next 2-3 years before we become totally dominant. LA has traded a lot of young talent away to get a front-court duo to try and match up with our twin towers.

by jscot on Feb 14, 2008 1:42 AM PST reply actions

I could not have said it better

Nate is grooming this team, for Larry Brown, to perfection.

Face! I kid because I love.

"Darkness warshed over the Dude - darker'n a black steer's tookus on a moonless prairie night. There was no bottom." The Stranger from The Big Lebowski (1999)

by tominhawaii on Feb 14, 2008 2:13 AM PST reply actions

Great post Dave

It's easy to get caught up in the moment and throw on the rose tinted glasses once we start looking like contenders.

Though it's never easy going through the lulls, our age (or lack thereof) is showing. Nothing to do about that but age much like a good cheddar.

"I'm very important. I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany."

by dcblazer on Feb 14, 2008 4:44 AM PST reply actions

That's what I miss about Portland.

It's too hard to find decent cheddar cheese out here. I miss me some Tillamook!

I'm not stubborn, just obstinate

by T Darkstar on Feb 14, 2008 11:13 AM PST up reply actions

There are at least a couple Mooks

on this site that could hook you up.

"Lenny Suckerpunch NEVER bet on me!" - Elizabeth "The Lizzard" Lowblow

by Lizzy Lowblow on Feb 14, 2008 6:40 PM PST up reply actions

I don't like what I'm hearing from Nate

From Quick's recap:

"We looked mentally fatigued," Blazers coach Nate McMillan said. "We can't sustain our concentration and our effort . . . our guys have pretty much looked drained for the last couple of weeks. And they are trying, but right now we're just not able to put together a 48-minute game, and I think that is more mental than anything."

Nate, it's your job to find them a reason to play hard again. It's your job to motivate them. It's your job to prevent them from becoming so mentally fatigued that they can't play basketball.

Nate, you've wowed us before this season by taking a dimsal team and making magic for 13 games. It's time for phase 2. ASAP. Coach of the Year is still salvageable.

by leeroyjenkins on Feb 14, 2008 6:40 AM PST reply actions

And just how is he supposed to do that?

McMillan's comments match my own observations. The guys seems to be a step behind on plays, or hesitating where previously they acted with confidence.

Everyone here knows (or should know) about young guys "hitting the wall". It's just a fact of life in the NBA. Why should anyone be surprised when the youngest team in the league exhibits the signs of this? And what, pray tell, is the coach supposed to do about it? Play the vets and give the young guys a break?

These guys are going to have to learn to play through that fatigue. Nate knows that and I'm sure he's telling his team exactly that. What else do you suggest? That he advise them on taking B-12 injections to pep them up, like Tejada, Clemens and Bonds? That he scream at them and call them wussies because they can't play like real men and take the pain? Pamper them, telling them bedtime stories about all the championship rings they have in their future and tucking them in at night?

And remember, whatever he does, it has to work for all of the guys, not just two or three. The way we are currently built, our success depends on everybody doing their part. Nate helping half of them figure out a way (a feat worthy of CoY all by itself) won't make a difference.

by timg56 on Feb 14, 2008 7:27 AM PST up reply actions

Not my job to figure it out

Nate's job

by leeroyjenkins on Feb 14, 2008 8:46 AM PST up reply actions

Playing hard and mental fatigue

I think they are playing hard. It's possible to play hard and be mentally fatigued at the same time. I've been there in other areas of life. I have a seasonal stressful job in which I perform about 20 times a summer. Two years ago business was crazy and I had to perform 54 times and by the time I got to 40 I was worn out because I'd never been there before.

There was nothing anybody could say or do to overcome the mental fatigue other than to get away from it and since it's seasonal (like the Blazer's season) that wasn't much of an option.

Most of these guys have never played this much basketball in this short of time in their lives.

Nate is doing the best thing possible during the break by telling them to get away from it for a while and refresh their batteries.

by jon @ Blazer's Edge on Feb 14, 2008 9:01 AM PST up reply actions

Confidence

Dave said, "There's a danger that we could lose confidence and spend the rest of the season in a tailspin."

I yelled at Mike Rice last night when he said they had to regain confidence. My question was, "how are they supposed to regain it when they aren't winning?"

You (Dave) write as if we haven't lost confidence yet. I imagine if we queried the players they would say they hadn't - but I'd take that with a grain of salt. I think some of them probably have (Travis & Martell) and others haven't (Roy, Blake, LMA).

But how DO you either retain/regain confidence - does it require winning or just avoiding blowouts? I think if the guys can kick back during this break, get lots of sleep, spend time with the people they most care about it will help with intensity and focus.

Kids get spring break, executives take vacations (or should, studies show). I had one boss who said the best vacations were 3 weeks long - one week to unwind, one week to enjoy, one week to start gearing up. These guys (minus Roy & Aldridge) get five days - or do they report back for practice on Monday. Four days?

"Everyone" says that the season is too long, but the loss of revenue means the NBA would never approve a change. But maybe they could be encouraged to make this break longer? Not enough (3 weeks) for guys to get out of shape, but maybe 10 days to do whatever they want?

"As of today, when Jones plays 15 minutes or more, Portland is 21-8, which is a 72% winning percentage" - Henry Abbott, February 12.

by jorga on Feb 14, 2008 8:06 AM PST reply actions

And I thought you were a pessimist, Dave

Nice take on the season so far.

The Blazers are streaky. They've reached 28-24 by starting out 5-12, surprised us going 18-1, and since then are 5-11. Expect another good run although the contenders will be playing harder in the second half. They're on pace to win 44... still could happen even though it doesn't look like it now.

by rburg on Feb 14, 2008 8:42 AM PST reply actions

Nice post

Dave, I agree with all you wrote except I see nothing wrong with beating a dead horse. ;)

Taking the long term view, I felt if this team won more games than last year it would be gravy. Remember how many people wondered who was going to replace Zach's numbers? And that Oden thing? I believed they would do well to win 34 games. Now I believe I underestimated them.

Here are some observations based on what I've seen in recent games:

Roy is the only Blazer who can get to the rim reliably. When he was out the offense went dead. Jack penetrates but struggles to finish as do the rest of the guards. Outlaw and Webster still lack the handles to do it reliably and LMA the strength. From what I've seen there is great hope that Rudy F. could be a huge boost in this area and of course having G.O. in their could open things up.
Jones being out illustrates another point. During the streak it was touted as a strength that the team is 10 deep and teams don't know who is going to step up and make the difference. Now we see the weakness of the team is that they're 10 deep and without all 10 they don't know if anybody is going to step up and make the difference. They are thin young reeds needing all 10 bound together to be strong enough to win. Those young reeds will grow stronger in a year or two.

by jon @ Blazer's Edge on Feb 14, 2008 9:19 AM PST reply actions

Busting through the Wall - Emotion or Strength?

You've hit the wall, you're feeling dead tired, the losing is starting to get to you. What do you do? As the Doors would say, "Break on through to the other side."

Except for Oden, Roy and Aldridge everybody knows they are expendable. As much as you want to push that out of your mind and just play ball, that has to be wearing on your brain juice. As the season gets to the finish line the talks with Nate, with Kevin become more coded. You look for body language to see if you can discern your standing in the big picture.

Well guess what? That's life in the big leagues gentlemen. You're a commodity, a playing card, a stock transaction just waiting to be finalized.

If your game involves playing off emotion to get your best work, then you are going to be ineffective the rest of the season. If on the other hand, you game is based on fundamentals and athletic ability, then you will be fine. Because you know what you can do and you are willing to keep working on it.

So where do I see this team going? In two directions. Those with consistency and strong fundamentals will continue to shine. While those with loose strings and rough edges with start to look askew and not as shiny as when hopes were high and the path was clear.

by ralphwood on Feb 14, 2008 9:32 AM PST reply actions

I've enjoyed every minute

of my raised expectations this season.

It doesn't look like the Blazers will make the playoffs now, but I have had a ton of fun watching them fool me into thinking they would.

Contrast that to my reaction during the third quarter of game 7 of the 2000 conference finals, when I was simultaneously excited to think my team might win the West and a title, yet disturbed at the thought that this team of bad boys did not deserve to become champs.

This current team is a wonderful group of guys and it's a blast to watch them grow. I'll gladly take the losses and low points along their path to success. Eyes on the prize.

Regarding fatigue, I wonder if the team has been paying the price lately for getting together a month early last September. Those practices might explain why they were able to get a jump on other teams and put together The Streak in December.

BTW, The Streak is still the longest winning streak in the NBA this season. Long live The Streak!

by MiledAnimal on Feb 14, 2008 10:31 AM PST reply actions

Expectations for this year

I recorded some preseason predictions for the Blazers.

Me: 38 wins (which now seems likely)
Vegas: 31 wins
The Sports Guy: 24
Henry Abbot (truehoop.com) 34

So, nobody really knew what to expect, but already knowing that we are going to exceed expectations makes it easier to handle the recent losing. I definitely see the overall progress, and am very excited about next year.
What I also find interesting is that the other Western Conference powers are sacrificing their futures to win now (Mavericks, Suns, Lakers). Looking ahead two or three years when Portland will be a contender, I think these three teams (along with San Antonio) will be too old to compete. Then the Blazers dynasty can begin!

by unblindloyalty on Feb 14, 2008 12:30 PM PST reply actions