Priorities

by Dave on Jan 8, 2008 2:37 AM PST in News

Yesterday's discussion of what it would mean to make the playoffs this year brought up an interesting side debate which can be neatly summed up thusly:

Have our goals for the season changed, or been re-prioritized at least, now that we have won so many games?

It's as good of a debate as any for an off-day. My two cents is that the goals haven't so much changed as crystallized. I would say our priorities are:

1. Make the Playoffs

One of the pleasant benefits of being on a winning track is no more multiple-personality approaches to our task. The last couple of years we've had to debate the merits of playing less promising guys just to get a couple more wins versus getting younger players some experience. We've talked about the benefits of getting better position in the lottery versus the experience of winning games. At this point the Blazers have chucked all that out the window. The goal is simple: just win. (Some will say, "Wasn't that always the goal?" The answer is a qualified "maybe". You might have guessed Zach Randolph could get you more wins last year but towards the end of the season you were really happy to see Lamarcus get those minutes anyway.) At this point the team has talent. They're learning how to execute with every game they play. The one piece of experience that our players need--the one that hardly any of them have had in this league while playing significant minutes--is how to win...not just for a month, or for a streak, but with regularity against all comers. This is the biggest overarching growth curve for all of our guys, and I see this as THE major step in their development.

I don't think whether we actually make the playoffs or not matters too much this year. I believe that the vaunted "playoff experience" comes far more in winning a series or two than in getting your butts kicked by San Antonio or Phoenix in 4 or 5 games in the first round. Unless we win the division, which is probably still a long shot, that's probably what's going to happen. It doesn't matter if we get 40 wins and miss, 42 and make, 42 and miss, or 45 and make as long as we tried to win every single one of them along the way. That's where the lessons will come about what you need to succeed, how long the grind can be, and how much you need to dedicate to it. Whatever it takes, whoever you have to play, just go out and win.

The only exception to this is that I wouldn't play Roy and Aldridge 48 minutes a game to do it and I wouldn't have them play when they're injured just to get a playoff spot. When it comes to actual results the future is still far more critical than the present and those two are critical to our future.

2. Develop Consistency

For all of the winning we still have a ton of players who are up and down...most everyone besides Roy and maybe Jones. Granted the guys are young and still will be at year's end, but we need to see a few of our other names come out with a game we can rely on. Outlaw's fourth-quarter heroics are a good step. We need more from him and others. It really doesn't matter if a guy can score 20 points once every three weeks. In the long run that doesn't lead to as many wins as the guy you know gives you an unstoppable 15 every night. People get excited about the flash performances, and rightly so, but saying a guy has "turned the corner", even if true, means that there was a corner to turn. NBA teams don't prosper when they zig-zag. They win by making a straight line to their goal and mowing over anybody who gets in their way.

The overall game plan, roles, and substitutions have evolved into a level of consistency far beyond where they were at the beginning of the year. It's time for the players to follow suit.

3. Resolve the Logjams

We're not going to be able to keep all of these guys forever. We know we have too many point guards. We know we have too many forwards. Those issues may not be resolved this summer but the next 50-odd games will hopefully show us more clearly who's a long-term prospect and who we're going to ship out or give up on.

What would you add or shift?

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Comments

The value of playoff experience

Dave, I agree with almost all your Blazer opinions. But the value of "the vaunted playoff experience" for a young team--even of the 4 & out variety--is something I think you seriously underestimate. As I've said before, the reason for this is that playoff ball is so different from the regular season game that players must experience it before they can prepare for and excel at it. I didn't make this up: I've heard it said many times by players and coaches. Perhaps someone less lazy than myself can do the necessary research to demonstrate this. But I'm pretty sure that no young team--led by young players--has made it further than a round or two during their first playoff run. You simply must get your nose bloodied once or twice before you can accomplish that. And the sooner you get that out of the way, the sooner you can arrive at your goal.

So while, sure, the experience of winning a series or two is far more valuable than that of being blown out of the gym by the Spurs in Round 1, even the latter experience is an important stepping stone towards the ultimate goal. IMO, the sooner the Blazers get to the playoffs, the sooner they'll have a chance to win it all. And considering all the things that can derail a championship, I think you want to reach that championship window as soon as you possibly can.

Look at two scenarios: if the Blazers make the playoffs this season but lose in 4 or 5 games to the Spurs, I can envision them coming back next year--as a more experienced & mature team with a chip on their shoulder plus Greg Oden--and getting all the way to the conference finals. In that scenario, the Blazers could win it all as early as '09-'10. But I simply can't envision them pulling that off after failing to make the playoffs this year.

So when you say "It doesn't matter whether we get 42 wins and miss or 42 wins and make," I have to respectfully disagree.

"Ime caught the guy in mid-air with a fist and calmly continued his dispatching of oncoming people." -Gabe Muoneke

by hurryup09 on Jan 8, 2008 3:44 AM PST reply actions

Not entirely true

I remember a very young team with no playoff experience going all the way. It was the 1977 Portland Trailblazers.

What they lacked in talent and experience, they made up for with excellent shooting, outstanding teamwork, superb coaching, good depth, and really good team defense and rebounding.

We have the shooting, teamwork, coaching, and depth, and those are great, great assets in the playoffs. Add Oden next year, and if the teamwork/chemistry is there, we could go all the way. I'm not saying we will, but playoff experience, while valuable, is not that important if you have the right team.

Next year, we will win our division, which means we get a good but not great opponent in the first round, one that we should beat, but will likely be good enough to battle us. By the time that round is done, we've got playoff experience.

We've got guys who have gone deep in the NCAA tourney, and performed well doing so. That is possibly higher pressure for a young kid than a best of seven NBA series.

by jscot on Jan 8, 2008 5:15 AM PST up reply actions

We're going all the way

somebody has to say it. We're gonna shock the world baby.

by Jumbo on Jan 8, 2008 7:25 AM PST up reply actions

It's funny....

.....I watched a show on NBA TV last night on the '77 Team and I told my wife that if we make the playoffs this year, get hot and somehow win the championship, that'd it'd be similar to our first championship. Even the team is somewhat similar, sans Walton (our Walton's on the bench in a suit), in that they play team ball, good defense and are an unselfish bunch. The difference is, the '77 team ran a little more and made a ton of layups.

by iDea on Jan 8, 2008 8:55 AM PST up reply actions

Gotta Go with HU09 on this one

The '76-77 Blazers would be the exception to the rule. Part of the reason they were able to be the exception was the addition of experienced players from the ABA and Walton had 3 years of experience winning at the college level at UCLA. (Lucas had 20 games playoff experience and Twardzik had 7 in the ABA before becoming Blazers.)

It isn't so much that they couldn't win without the experience as it would be one less barrier to overcome in the future. Experiencing a beat down by the Spurs would allow them to see up close and personal how a team focuses in and raises its intensity to win in the playoffs.

Dave makes a good point about fighting to get there being valuable but I just think it is called the "second season" for a reason. Coaches and players make distinctions like that because there is a difference. It would benefit the young Blazers who haven't come close to sniffing the playoffs to get in there and mix it up even if they were swept in the first round.

by tssbro on Jan 8, 2008 7:08 AM PST up reply actions

But this team

has proven they are the exception. How often have I heard/read "young teams just don't do this" when referring to a long win streak, coming back during a road game, winning a double overtime on the road ...

I'm not projecting a championship, but this team has got me believing that anything is possible. Little they can do from now on will surprise me. They may be young in years, but they play older than that.

"They were playing the game with a great deal of passion and excitement and it was a real bear's den to be involved in." - Jerry Sloan on the Blazers, 01/05/08

by jorga on Jan 8, 2008 7:50 AM PST up reply actions

JJ33

Has at least 26 postseason games under his belt (including the 2005-6 NBA finals) and LaFrentz has at least another 8 postseason games (can't recall how many specifically) JJ, Green, Blake and Oden have college Final Four or NCAA Championship experience and Roy has college Sweet Sixteen experience. Not too shabby, even for a young team. I think they can make it to the post-season this year, and then, who knows?

by DonkeyShins on Jan 8, 2008 4:47 PM PST up reply actions

Also...

Frye-lock (bad ATHF reference, sorry) made it to the Elite Eight as well.

by DonkeyShins on Jan 8, 2008 4:49 PM PST up reply actions

And LMA's

Texas team lost in the regional finals - is that the Elite Eight? He and Daniel Gibson got beat by Glen Davis & Tyrus Thomas. Wikpedia says LMA was a non-factor in the overtime loss. Ooops.

"They were playing the game with a great deal of passion and excitement and it was a real bear's den to be involved in." - Jerry Sloan on the Blazers, 01/05/08

by jorga on Jan 9, 2008 9:28 AM PST up reply actions

Context

I wasn't saying they couldn't make the playoffs or do anything when they got there. I was saying that making the playoffs would be valuable for this team as a counter to Dave's comments that he doesn't find it to be that important.

It is great that we have players who have played deep in the NCAA tourney but I think playing in a 7 game series is an entirely different animal. Yes they have been in big games and they will add to that experience even more by being in a seven game playoff series.

by tssbro on Jan 9, 2008 6:55 AM PST up reply actions

Just to clarify

I said that I didn't believe a young team led by young players had ever gone more than a round or two into the playoffs during their first go-round. I considered the '76-'77 Blazers when I said that. Remember, the Baby Blazers are actually even younger than their average age indicates, as two of their oldest players--LaFrenz and Miles--account for nearly zero minutes. Walton, Lucas, & Twardzik (center, power forward, and point guard on that squad) were grizzled veterans by the standards of the current Blazers. Walton and Lucas were 24 or 25 (both born in '52), and Twardzik was a couple years older yet (born in '50). Lucas and Twardzik had playoff experience in the ABA, and Walton had the next closest thing, having led UCLA to a pair of NCAA championships (winning the Naismith award 3 times).

I've actually cited that Blazer team a number of times as evidence that the Blazers can win a championship "ahead of schedule"--i.e., as soon as next season and certainly by '09-'10. But the odds of this year's squad--whose key players are not only younger than their counterparts on the '76-'77 team but lacking in any playoff experience whatsoever--going all the way strikes me as slim to none.

That's why I argue that making the playoffs this year--even as "cannon fodder" for the Spurs--would be invaluable. Some things in life you just have to experience before you can deal with them, and NBA playoff basketball is one of those. The sooner the Baby Blazers go thru that initiation, the sooner they can reach their goal IMO.

"Ime caught the guy in mid-air with a fist and calmly continued his dispatching of oncoming people." -Gabe Muoneke

by hurryup09 on Jan 8, 2008 12:33 PM PST up reply actions

I can see

where getting rid of the "deer in the headlights" aspect could help. Although if I remember correctly that sensation comes back somewhat when you hit the conference finals and big-time when you hit the NBA finals. Still it couldn't hurt making the playoffs, right?

As far as next year I tend to think that talent will be a bigger determining factor than any experience we get this spring. If our talent is better than the opponent next year we'll probably advance whether or not we've made the playoffs this year.

In other words I'll ride the "playoff experience" train, but probably not as far as a lot of folks. I still think a lot of other things matter more.

Now winning your first series or making the conference finals for the first time...I'm all about that being a valuable learning experience. I think a whole lot of people underestimate just how hard it is to go as far as we're hoping the team will go someday. When you've just played 100 gruelling games in a season and you fall short because someone else executed one stinkin' play better than you in the fourth quarter it teaches you a lot about what you need to do to be great in this league.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 8, 2008 12:21 PM PST up reply actions

Concerning your last point...

When you see highlights of past championship runs, you're reminded of what a grueling road that is and how many things have to go right at at key points along the way. The fact is, there's an element of luck involved in winning a championship. Not only do you need to get lucky with injuries (or rather with their timing, because every team gets them), but you need for a few balls to bounce your way at key moments. For instance, the Bulls would have been eliminated a couple times if opponents had just hit wide open shots at the end of games.

Sure, great teams take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves. But you've got to be a bit lucky to get those opportunites at the times you need them the most. Dynasties can turn on a bounce of the ball, the turning of an ankle, or the blowing of a whistle.

"Ime caught the guy in mid-air with a fist and calmly continued his dispatching of oncoming people." -Gabe Muoneke

by hurryup09 on Jan 8, 2008 1:14 PM PST up reply actions

Exactly

Which is why you have to give yourself every opportunity to experience that "luck", so to speak. As the Suns, Kings, and Jazz can tell you, it's easy for the train to fall off the track unexpectedly even for a great team. So you need to build to get there multiple times and you need to build to be dominant when you do get there so those swings of luck don't hurt you as much.

Another way to put this is to invoke Murphy's Law that everything that can go wrong, will. The teams that win it are usually the ones that are able to withstand everything going wrong and still come out a little better than the opponent.

Or you can rephrase it with my own maxim: if you have to say, "If a couple things bounce right we can win it..." you won't, because they won't bounce right (at least not consistently enough to win four seven-game series).

I believe the Blazers will be built as exactly the kind of team that can withstand that luck and that grind. But the distance between that and where we are now is still enormous.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 8, 2008 2:25 PM PST up reply actions

Agreed

This Blazer team is a textbook example of the right way to build a contender. And some of that luck factor I referred to has already occurred. Most obvious is the bounce of the ping pong balls that brought us Greg Oden. But also, not even KP really knew that Brandon Roy and LMA would be as good as they are. And the odds that both Martell and Trout--drafted raw right out of high school--would pan out as well as they have were remote. Then there was Travis' Memphis Miracle. Had that shot been launched a split-second later, we might not even be having a discussion about the importance of making the playoffs this season.

So already there's plenty of serendipity with this team to accompany the brilliant long-range planning. If any young team could be projected to become a perennial contender, it's this squad. They'll still need some luck to win it all--there's just no getting around that. But I like their chances very much.

"Ime caught the guy in mid-air with a fist and calmly continued his dispatching of oncoming people." -Gabe Muoneke

by hurryup09 on Jan 8, 2008 3:32 PM PST up reply actions

I believe

that one day the Blazers will be one of those teams that takes other teams' luck and shoves it right back down their throats.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 8, 2008 6:01 PM PST up reply actions

With luck, that'll happen.

Seriously, you can't make enough smart moves to innoculate yourselves against bad luck. Just look to what happened to the '77-'78 Blazers for an example. All you can do is stack the odds in your favor as much as is humanly possible. And that, in my opinion, is what KP & Tom Penn--backed by Paul Allen--have been doing.

"Ime caught the guy in mid-air with a fist and calmly continued his dispatching of oncoming people." -Gabe Muoneke

by hurryup09 on Jan 8, 2008 11:24 PM PST up reply actions

another interesting tidbit

would be what playoffs this year and next year would do in to making us more attractive to a FA in summer '09.

I don't know nor am I going to mention anyone outside of CP3 who is available (popssibly) then, but making it this year, getting beaten, making it with Oden next year, most likely a round further and getting beaten would provide this possibility:

A FA, when seeing a team is playoff capable and ready to make a run, is more tempted to sign with said team. In this case, us. Also, this summer and before the deadline in '09 will be used to cut the dead weight and put us in a position to sign a FA. Make no mistake, KP obviously has some plan cooking in the beaker with Mad Man Tom Penn right there working on the diagnostics.

Hate the game, not the player.

by Rodendridge on Jan 8, 2008 7:34 AM PST reply actions

How many times

already have we heard "this is like a playoff game". This team brings such intensity that the other teams have to ramp it up to play us - at least in the 4th quarter.

This concerns me for two reasons: if we are using playoff intensity now, will there be any left? Not that it is finite, but energy gets depleted and bodies do get tired. Dave mentioned not playing Roy & LMA for long minutes - it may come to a point where a conscious decision will have to be made. Do we make a run for it or do we not overwork our horses. If we don't make that run we'll be accused of tanking. If we do, are we risking injury? I felt Nate was intimating that Roy needs to work this summer on getting stronger - if he gets injured that might be hard to do - same if he (or others) are exhausted.

And the second concern is meeting the opponent's playoff intensity from the tipoff. No one has come into a game against us yet (except maybe the Jazz last game) thinking it was a must-win and planning to pound us from the get-go. I suppose this could be filed under "playoff experience" and I don't know where I am in that debate yet. Does it have to be experienced to understand it?

"They were playing the game with a great deal of passion and excitement and it was a real bear's den to be involved in." - Jerry Sloan on the Blazers, 01/05/08

by jorga on Jan 8, 2008 8:14 AM PST reply actions

the smartest posters anywhere

lots of great thoughts as usual.

understanding human nature... the Blazers will play to win always and not tank or mail it in. the coaches may elect to by limiting minutes, etc. but once the players step onto the court, it's go time.

also they're young, they can take the minutes and pressure.

the blazers make the playoffs this year and go deep next.

by rburg on Jan 8, 2008 8:29 AM PST reply actions

I'd change one bit

I'd take the third (small) paragraph of your section 1 (Make the Playoffs) about keeping Roy/Aldridge healthy and create a whole new category for it, like this:

1) Stay Healthy

We all know that Oden is out for the year and I'm pretty sure most of us would cringe if he were debuted in April for a playoff run. All three of our "big three" have legitimate health question marks and, as far as I'm concerned, that's the only thing standing in between us and multiple rings. Under NO circumstances do we even come NEAR jeopardizing our main guys' health this season to push for more wins.

Make the Playoffs
Develop Consistency
Resolve the Logjams

by kickbrass on Jan 8, 2008 8:31 AM PST reply actions

Staying Healthy

This is one of my priorities for the season too. It deserves to be a whole new category, tho I'd rank it right below developing consistency. It's a LONG season, and learning how to handle injuries is a key element of successful teams.

I've often thought the NBA is as much about injuries as is it about talent. I'm betting that whether we make the playoffs or not depends on the health of key N*ggets, L*kers, etc.

{It's hugely encouraging that the team did just fine without LaMarcus for a stretch, and that Martell stepped up when Brandon was ailing. Face it, the team needs to get good at finding ways to win without the "big three." At least we're not dependent on a single star.)

I'm less concerned with major acute injuries than with managing the niggly chronic things (backs, knees, feet, exhaustion) that always seem to be big problems by the end of the season. I hope the guys get really good at figuring out when it's best to sit out, when its o.k. to play through injuries, how to rehab efficiently, how to stay conditioned over the summer, etc.

If the guys stay relatively healthy, I'll have more faith in the judgement of individual players, as well as more faith in the trainers and other members of the team's "infrastructure."

by Corvid on Jan 8, 2008 3:06 PM PST up reply actions

Its early to know...

but not too early to speculate :) I have thought a lot about the logjams lately. Unfortunately, I see Frye as the odd man out for the bigs. With Oden coming back he won't get time at center (Oden, Pryz, LaF) and you have a blossoming PF (LMA) and a spark plug off the bench that we just signed (Outlaw). I see Outlaw as having the advantage because he creates his own shot, Frye is too much like what we already have in LMA. I would love to keep all 3 but that's not likely... too bad too, I really like Channing and think he couldn't have had a better attitude so far.
I see the odd man out for the PG's being Jack. This would not be my choice... but I think that will be the way it turns out. I really like Jack, I think he gives the team a little bit of swagger that the team needs. I like his competitive fire and work ethic, and he drives to the basket which we desperately need. I find myself yelling at the screen, pleading with the Blazers to take it to the hole and only Roy and JJ seem to hear me. However, Sergio seems to have found a home with the white team and that will only help with Rudy coming and I see them bringing in a PG when the championship runs come.
Who do you see as the logjam solutions?

by porterfan30 on Jan 8, 2008 8:56 AM PST reply actions

I completely agree

and see us trading Frye in the offseason for a future pick or included in a trade to provide roster flexibility. He's playing well, in what amounts to his second season (last year is hard to count since he didn't get pt for the knicks). We could get a late, future first round pick from someone like PHX or SA who could use a nice backup big.

by iDea on Jan 8, 2008 9:01 AM PST up reply actions

Frye

will be around I think. He's proving to be a good rebounder, his defense is getting better. Reaf is toast. A good guy by all accounts, but not part of the plans.

So with pryz lma and oden, all with injury histories, how do you get rid of frye as insurance unless you can move him for someone better?

by bubba on Jan 8, 2008 12:16 PM PST up reply actions

Well, along with those 3

you have to include Outlaw as a PF considering that's the position at which he not only plays the most, but also at which he thrives.

Who knows, maybe they won't get rid of Frye. BUT, carrying 6 bigs including McRoberts just seems like too many to me.

by iDea on Jan 8, 2008 12:50 PM PST up reply actions

So why would you keep McRoberts

If you are choosing between him and Frye?

by bubba on Jan 8, 2008 1:13 PM PST up reply actions

Honestly I wouldn't

I just don't see anyone having much interest in trading for him.

I like what Frye has done this season and think he's fit in relatively well. I would have no problem if we kept him......we're certainly going to need to free up a roster spot or two.

by iDea on Jan 8, 2008 2:55 PM PST up reply actions

Screw McRoberts

Pick up Rod Benson!

by Jaketron on Jan 9, 2008 2:11 AM PST up reply actions

I couldn't agree more Bubba

The Raefer is 11.5 mil invested in holding down a bench seat. He's obviously not in the team's plans until his contract becomes expiring and tradeable.

He'll be watching games from the end of the bench with the rookies for a few years to come, so the team will need a big with a future they can actually use like Frye.

by t jay on Jan 8, 2008 11:54 PM PST up reply actions

I guess I'm a contrarian.

Dave put enough qualifiers in his argument for putting making the playoffs as the teams top priority that I could go along, but deep down I don't agree.

Were I Nate or KP, I would not be telling my guys they should be thinking about the playoffs. I want them thinking about winning the next game. Beyond that I want them concentrating on what they have to do to improve their performance and how they can contribute. I want them to develop the mind set that every game is one they truly expect to win and to commit themselves to that goal, not only during every game, but in how they practice and how they prepare.

Our guys have come a good distance to date, but I want them realizing that there is still a large amount of room for improvement. For me this is still a learning and growing year. If my guys understand that and work on the things I want them to and dedicate themselves to what I mentioned above, then the victories will come.

It's a simple fact, you don't make the playoffs without first winning games. If you concentrate on what it takes to win each individual game, eventually you will find the playoffs come to you.

So my priorities for this team, in order are:

Continue to learn and grow - as players, as teammates and as winners.
Once you learn it, become consistent at it.
Don't forget it's a game and that you are blessed to be able to get paid for playing it - so have fun.

Playoffs - don't worry about them.

Logjams - if you produce, you will get your minutes. Let the GM worry about the roster. It's what he gets paid for.

by timg56 on Jan 8, 2008 9:19 AM PST reply actions

I completely agree

Our priorities should be on how we make this team a dynasty, not a flash in the pan. And if you fulfill the those top 3 priorities, I think squeeking into the playoffs will naturally occur as a bi-product. But make no mistake the goal should be how to groom a long standing powerhouse with development and consistency.

by mpressive on Jan 8, 2008 9:51 AM PST up reply actions

Ever Changing...

As I look as this team, I see a couple things that are especially important to their future. I think everyone would agree that this team is not ready to compete for an NBA title this year, but that doesn't mean that we mail it in. The value of winning cannot be overstated. A couple of things...

Tasting victory on a regular basis is always good. Winning begets winning. Issues of confidence, cohesiveness, playing time, and any team conflict are almost always resolved by notching a win or two, or three, or thirteen in the case of this team.
I think it's important for us and them to remember to allow their goals to evolve as the team does. We have all done this with them this year. We didn't expect a playoff team at the beginning of the year. Now, we expect to fight for one. If we keep a .500 pace or better throughout, maybe more than "just" a playoff team...who knows? That's the beauty of goals...if you blow through them, hunt for bigger and better. Talk about confidence...that will breed confidence.

by prodigalfan on Jan 8, 2008 9:27 AM PST reply actions

Prodigalfan.....wonderful post

I love the part about allowing the team to evolve and establish their goals accordingly.

I think goals should cause a stretch but be achievable. I believe keeping a .500 pace throughout the year is certainly achievable, and the possibility of making the playoffs can only add to the team's confidence as you mentioned.

by t jay on Jan 9, 2008 12:09 AM PST up reply actions

You forgot to say wear sunblock

Actually, Dave summed it up nicely and I like Hurryup09's post as well. The only thing I could add are a bunch of cliche's. I just want the team to keep doing what they are doing, if they make the playoffs, gravy, if not then no biggy. Just as long as they go out each night with their "A" game and give 100%. That is all I can ask from them. If they play that way and make the playoffs, then get swept, it would still be a valuable lesson. Probably more valuable than a high draft pick.

A shadowy flight into the dangerous world of a man who does not exit - Darius Miles

by tominhawaii on Jan 8, 2008 10:11 AM PST reply actions

Small expectations is a big plus

No matter whether the Blazers make they playoffs, or what happens when they get there, there's no pressure on them. They're already loose because they're too young to know they shouldn't be playing this well, but also because they've already exceeded expectations by a giant leap. They could go 20-27 from here on out and just miss the playoffs, and everyone would still applaud them for having had a great year.

When they make the playoffs, considering how well they've been playing, is it inconceivable that they could beat the emotionally fragile Mavericks or the can't-get-over-the-top Suns? They've already beaten the Mavs and Warriors once, the Hornets and Nuggets twice, and the Jazz three times.

The only team I fear the Blazers could not beat in a seven-game series is the Spurs. They'll need Oden for that. All other playoff teams, including the Spurs, carry the weight of expectations of success from owners, management, fans, and media. The Blazers get a free ride. That's a nice advantage to have going into the playoffs.

by MiledAnimal on Jan 8, 2008 11:09 AM PST reply actions

Consistency

The point in Dave's post that I'd like to highlight is the need to develop consistency.

At the championship level the passing and shooting windows open and shut so quickly that you cannot afford the time to consider if your teammate is "on" tonight or if he can hit the shot from where he's at, or catch this pass, etc.

You have to know when the window is going to open and then with confidence know what to do when the window is open without thinking. To develop that you need consistency. Erratic talent, though likely to make the highlight reel and the crowd leap to its feet, does not make for championships.

But I'd also like to see the team experience the speed of playoff basketball this year so they can start learning that "when the window is going to open and close" stuff asap.

by jon @ Blazer's Edge on Jan 8, 2008 12:46 PM PST reply actions

Don't Do Anything Stupid

The basic advice is: stay the course, and don't do anything rash or foolish.

Don't go out and trade for a Vince or a T-Mac... or even a Jason Kidd.

Don't try to bring back Oden early.

Don't try to rush Miles in, thinking he'll turn us into a contender. Make him earn his minutes. Anything he can give us is gravy.

Don't sign any old farts to long term deals in the offseason; i.e. Wallace, Ben.

But stay the course. If we make it to the playoffs, excellent! If we don't, it's been a fun ride.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 8, 2008 5:40 PM PST reply actions

Miles earning his minutes means

Travis, LMA, Martell, or Jones losing some of theirs. I'm not liking the sound of that trade-off.

by t jay on Jan 9, 2008 12:22 AM PST up reply actions

Beam me up Scotty ! The Plan

Nice post, but perhaps you haven't thought
of us winning our division this year and getting the # 3 seed in the 1st round. We win and advance
to the 2nd round against the Spurs. Duncan rolls
his ankle in the first game and we never look
back. We activate GO for the Western Conference
finals against Pheonix and sweep them in four !
They can't match up with the black or white
squads and in a major upset (according to Simmons and other East coast hacks) the Blazers sweep the
" Big three" and the Celts for our second
championship on the road to dynasty.
WHAT ?

It could happen. I can remember this
feeling. Summer of 1976 anyone ?
The last game I attended was the finale last year. I sat next to Martell's buddies from Seattle. They were both personable and really thought his summer plans were going to help his game. Working with a sports psychologist, personal trainer and playing at Pauley for a couple of month's. At that same game Travis had a breakout game with LMA, BRoy, Zbo, etc sitting out. Visions of trophies dancing in my head.
Having coached college aged kids, I've seen seasons turn around in part or midway through, just due to team chemistry gelling, or a veteran retuning from injury, a fight in practice that ends in a handshake or even a coach easing up after a iron fisted start. Sound familiar?
BRoy asking everyone to come in early, James
Jones stepping up, the boys in SA, and Nate
loosening the reins. Yes, it happens on diamond
as well as in the Rose Garden. It's just plain
hard/teamwork. Oh and believing in each other !

PA & KP - Don't make any trades, don't bring
Miles or GO back early and then hang
on for the ride !!!

COINCAST SUCKS ! BRING BACK OUR BLAZERS !

It's GO time !

by walkoff41 on Jan 9, 2008 1:26 AM PST reply actions