Thursday Guest Blogger
Today's guest blogger is the frighteningly-named, yet always astute, Harry Manback. His entry:
Everyone in sports says that it's all about championships. Anything to win a championship. Sportscasters say it, fans say it, coaches say it, players say it. But is it really true? Would you trade long-term success for a single championship?
Let me throw out this scenario: it's the year 2000. It's the fourth quarter of game 7 versus the Los Angeles Lakers. The Blazers, having built up a lead of as much as 17 points, are in a full-fledged panic as they watch their lead dwindle into the single digits. In a moment of desperation, Mike Dunleavy sends his starters to the bench and brings in two young men named Jermaine O'Neal and Bonzi Wells, in hopes of sparking some kind of resurgence. Over the next two possessions, the Blazers pound the ball into the post to Wells, who overpowers Kobe Bryant for two point-blank shots--one a score and the other put back by an energetic young O'Neal.
Though the two young players would be taken out of the game a few possessions later, their contributions on those two possessions allow the Blazers to regain their footing and put away the Lakers. After a short series with an overmatched Pacers team, the Blazers become champions for the first time since 1977.
The fallout of this triumph changes what we now know as history. There is a parade. Players and coaches are happier with their situation on the team. Keith Olberman, in recapping the game, states that after falling to 1-3, the Blazers "showed more mettle than aluminum foil". Through the smoky haze in his living room, Damon Stoudamire wonders aloud, "Did that guy just say that aluminum foil is made out of metal?" He
does not realize how much grief this lesson will save him later in life.
More importantly, the championship proves to Paul Allen the validity of "the plan". Rather than make major changes, he decides in a meeting with Bob Whitsitt to bring everybody back. Jermaine O'Neal remains a Blazer and is promised an increasing role behind an aging Sabonis. The team fails to ever get over the hump and win another championship, but stays in the NBA elite for another year and then settles into the middle of the playoff pack.
Fast forward to today. Without ever undergoing any serious changes and without ever truly challenging for a title again, the Blazers now sit with an aging roster. They have just been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by a Houston squad featuring Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, and a promising young rookie named Brandon Roy. Their only tradeable assets are a constantly injured Jermaine O'Neal and a damaged-goods Rasheed Wallace (who has WAY overstayed his welcome). Brushes with the law have been fairly frequent. Playoff series victories have not.
Was it worth it? No future with Roy or Aldridge or Oden. Massive rebuilding project around the corner with limited assets with which to start it. The winning of the championship dragging out the era of the JailBlazers.
Would you take a championship in 2000 at the cost of the core that we have today? If you could give up all of the potential of this team if it meant a single championship and a decade of mediocrity, would you do it?
Provocative questions from Harry! Weigh in below.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
36 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Easy call
I know this is really off the subject, but I always questioned the universal assumption that had the Blazers held together in that fateful 4th quarter they'd certainly have won the championship. On the contrary, I've always felt that the character of that Blazer team was so flawed that a meltdown was inevitable. Even the lowly Pacers might well have been too much for them in the pressure cooker of the Finals.
By contrast, this new Blazers squad--composed of guys from winning programs who respect themselves and each other--is being built to handle that kind of heat. The next decade is going to be great--infinitely more enjoyable than that one title would have been.
There is more to this
But the sports fan in all of us wants the realistic chance to challenge every year. Nearly every team must rebuild and if they get the #1 pick in the right year they will win some championships ala Tim Duncan and Shaq (shouldn't he still be in Orlando?). There is no one and done here. We buy in for the long haul. Yes, I want a championship. No I don't want it from scuzzy players. Yes, I value character. No, I don't want character that cannot play the game.
Nice post.
Alternate History?
In 2000 we were so close, (I believe we were the better team) to a championship, that sure my instinct is to say, Win it! Let the future be what it will be, but win it and hang a banner for Sabonis, Pippen and The City of Portland.
Your core question seems to be "Would you trade long term success for a single championship?" I say yes, you have to. Championships are what all franchises want. They become an undying eternal part of their respective cities and fan base. So if you have a chance, at even one, you must take it. Teams take that chance all the time. Miami did with Shaq, they knew he had no long term viability, you only bring Shaq in at this point in his career, for that chance at a single championship or two, but you certainly don't bring him in with an eye to future viability or sustainable growth. Same thing Boston is doing. Throwing the dice, trying to win a championship now or never. Miami got their "one" so was it worth it? I think so.
2 things I question, in your work of speculative fiction. #1 you say: "The team fails to ever get over the hump and win another championship, but stays in the NBA elite for another year and then settles into the middle of the playoff pack." Hmm...would that happen? Would Whittsit and Allen just let The Blazers stagnate in the middle of the pack for 6 years? Like him or Hate Him Whittsit was a dealer, seems to me even within your speculative alternate history, it is likely moves we could not foresee or predict would be made. Whittsit was a dealer, trader, and a passionate Allen is an owner that makes things happen, together I can't see a half a decade of mediocrity being allowed to happen. Either Whittsit would of made a blockbuster trade, or his lack of character evaluation would scuttle the team to the bottom, but middle of the pack under Whittsit and Allen? I don't see that. More likely Whittsit gets us Kevin Garnett.
#2. Long term success at the price of a single championship? Today, as we have painfully seen this week, long term success is easier said, than done. This team as it is today, only has the potential for long term success. But potential is not a guarantee. I like what we have in Aldridge, Oden and Roy. Plus prospects like Rudy, and players like Sergio and Jack,...Webster, Outlaw...I could go on. But is long term success guaranteed? No. Another reason you take the guaranteed championship if you can get it.
I think peoples reaction will be to defend what we have today, and shudder at your allusions to names like Bonzi, and Rasheed. Make no mistake, I was no fan of the Jail Blazer Era, and I really, really do like where this team seems to be heading. To me, getting a basketball team to championship level is like climbing Everest. If you have the chance to reach the summit, you better do it because you never know what is going to happen and tomorrow you could be heading back to base camp.
Championships are overrated
I WAS in SF when the 49ers won their first title, and we were esctatic because the 49ers came from nowhere and seemed like a group of great guys playing a fresh, innovative style of ball that fit the character of the city. No one gave them a chance, but they won it all. That was special.
But if the Jailblazers had won, it wouldn't have been like that. Sure, it would have been great. But would that title have become "an eternal and undying part" of Portland? I don't think so.
Jail Blazers weren't all Jail Blazers.
Infact, in 2000 Rasheed, Bonzi and Damon had yet to write the controversial chapters of their own stories. The community would of embraced the team, and at that point who knows? The only player of those mentioned that I would place bets on crashing and burning would be Bonzi. Winning the championship would of changed the immediate outlook and maybe even the future of some of the players.
Allens Choice, Allens Perspective
A. Return to a injury Stricken, Pot Smokin, Poor Spirited team. With little hope of success to follow.
Or
B. Start with the Right goods in the 2007 draft era and Tweak out the bugs in a new running Franchise.
My guess is that with all the pervious knowledge of what is to happen; he decides to choose Oden/Aldridge/Roy and the Team. He Decides "I really didn't like how everything turned out. I want to effect the Future just a little bit more to step closer to perfection. Closer than any man has"......... Purely spectulation
LOSER-
THE ONE AND DONE
WINNER-
PROLONGED GREATNESS IN HISTORY
by littleharry on Sep 13, 2007 1:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Excellent article
I feel like winning the division is a worthy goal, secondarily winning the conference, and if you happen to have that once-in-thirty-years experience, yes, win the championship. Call my expectations low but winning the division is no slouch of an expectation.
Agreed
But back to the difficulties and uncertainties of getting over that final hump and winning it all. Here would be a tougher question for me than the one posed by Manback: what if this Blazer team won the title on schedule in '09 or '10, but afterwards suffered a series of catastrophic injuries to key players and never contended again. Contrast that with having the team become perennial contenders win division and even conference titles but are snakebit and never quite get over the hump. (Kind of like last year's Suns.)
Which scenario would you choose? A decade of thrilling but ultimately disappointing fandom, or the one great payoff--a championship for a team that the community truly has embraced and rooted on to the top of that "Mt Everett?" In that case, I guess I'd opt for the latter. But it'd be a tough one.
But see
Great Piece Harry
by Lou9700 on Sep 13, 2007 12:02 AM PDT reply actions
The 76-77 Blazers...
Luck
This is one of the best questions ever
And I can't remember the last time I was so excited, eager, hopeful about a Blazers team. Definately not this way about the 2000 team, no matter how much I loved them. Although I hate Phil Jackson, he was pretty much correct when he said the Blazers were "the best team money could buy". It had a solid mix of youth (Sheed) and vets (Saboner, Pip), but the enormous weight of STUPID contracts (which were the norm of the late 90's early 00's, but still) and bad attituding prolly woulda caught up to us-- quickly. Even if we had won the whole bowl of chili and spirits remained high for another year, I can't imagine that team challenging for a second title...
At the time, that woulda' been fine. Win an actual championship, beating the evil Lakers along the way, and a few years down the road we gotta eat horrible contracts, police reports, and end up in the lottery for the rest of the decade? Sure, sign me up! I'd be flipping parked cars with the rest of the mob. Without knowing how good things could be now, it would sound like wisdom.
So, hindsight is 20/20. For example, I'm a big fan of Webster still, but I know others ain't... but if we got Paul or Deron then who knows if we woulda got Roy and Aldridge, let alone Oden. Everything had to fall into place "just so" to get where we are at now.
And I like where we are at right now, even before this team has played a single game, than I would have liked to win that 2000 championship. It might be irrational, but that's fandom for ya.
This team can redeem the Blazer name and be one of the best (and most EXCITING) teams for the next decade-- no one and done for these kids. No one pump chumps (as in victory fist pump, of course). It'll take yet more time, but that will be unbelievably fun. This will be a team that is remembered for all time, and not a curiosity. "Oh, they won that year? Wierd, I completely forgot about that..."
Hated Ruben, couldn't stand Damon, never expected to see My Blazers have the worst record in the league... but I honestly can say I wouldn't change a thing.
I know I should wait till we are actually good to have this view, but I am ever hopeful. I am a fan.
Mortimer
Not championship, championships
If my team can't win the title that year, I at least would like them to be the gatekeepers. "You want a title, you have to beat us."
That's my idea of a successful team. Even Dallas, who hasn't won one yet, is a good team and a fun one to watch, ditto for the Suns.~Nathan
a pat on the manback
instead of the worst moment in blazer history, 2000 would have represented the best moment for many a blazer fan. sure, PA and Whitsitt essentially bought that team, but that was our advantage at the time. LA had bright lights, sunny skies, celebrities, and a storied history, and we happened to have one of the wealthiest men in the world as an owner.
but of course, we didn't win and i couldn't be happier with our outlook etc. etc. yet even if we didn't repeat or even continue to contend, that victory (and a great shot at winning it all) would have been pretty freakin' righteous.
by tree branch on Sep 13, 2007 6:18 AM PDT reply actions
YOu seem to be asking whether...
I'd take the championship. The future might or might not work out in either case.
by ken @ Blazer's Edge on Sep 13, 2007 6:23 AM PDT reply actions
The thought
However, I'm not sure that your scenario is realistic. Let's say the Blazers win the title that year. Why would they only stay elite for another year? Rasheed Wallace is still getting it done seven years later, injuries are unpredictable so there's nothing to say Jermaine O'Neal wouldn't be healthy, the Blazers would've had at least one draft pick every year to keep the roster fresh and every one loves a winner. Free agents will take a slight discount to play for a title contender (cf Grant Hill). If nothing else, Trader Bob would've done something to keep the roster from stagnating. I'm not saying that the Blazers would've won another title because that's tough to do, but it's equally possible that they could've returned to the conference finals a few more times. Confidence is a big part of sports and there's nothing like blowing a big fourth quarter lead to your hated rivals on national TV to put that seed of doubt in your mind.
As a fan, I want my team to be competitive. Even if they "only" get to the conference finals, but never win, that's better than a string of 20 win seasons with one championship in the middle (cf Florida Marlins).
I'm not much of a gambler....
Couple of takes here.
I tend toward the idea that as long as my team is competative and at least has a chance of making it to the championship game, I'm happy. Afterall the Blazers of the 90's were exactly that type of team and I loved them.
On the other hand, I also have to agree with Krang about the aura, if you will, that winning a championship brings. As an Oriole and Redskins fan, I have Super Bowl and World Series victories to look back on. As a Maryland grad, winning a National Championship is an unforgetable moment. I guess the person to ask would be a Buffalo Bills fan.
On the alternate history scenerio
But I don't see your scenerio as the most likely one. Like torsoheap, I see a better outcome for a Portland team that wins in 2000 and stays together. With Grant, Wallace, O'Neal and Randolph, Whitsett works a trade sending Wallace to Miami for a package that includes their #5 pick (who turns out to be some guy named Wade). Sabonis and Pippen, O'Neal, Wells and Stoudimire, with Daniels, Wade and Randolph coming off the bench, Portland makes it to the Western Conf finals at least twice more. Ruben Patterson is signed and eventually replaces Pippen as the starting SF.
In 2003 - 04 Portland sends Wells and Randolph to Atlanta for Theo and Sharif and draft Josh Howard out of Wake. They also sign undrafted Matt Carroll out of ND to fill out their roster. With a front line of Ratlif, O'Neal and Abdul-Rahim, teamed with Wade & Damon in the back court, Portland once again makes it to the Conference Finals.
They sign free agent center Joel Pryzbilla the next year and take Victor Khryapa with the 26th pick. The team falls off in 04 - 05, making the playoffs but losing in rnd 2. Sharif is moved to the Kings in return for Brian Skinner, Greg Ostertag and some throw-in named Kevin Martin. Ruben gets dealt to the Bucks for Joe Smith.
The following year, Director of Player personnel Kevin Pritchard works a deal with Boston, taking on the albatross contract of LaFrenz in return for their draft pick, which becomes Brandon Roy.
With a roster of Pryzbilla, O'Neal, Howard, Wade and Roy, backed up by Steve Blake, Kevin Martin, Matt Carroll, Victor Khryapa, and Joe Smith, Portland is once again pegged as one of the teams to beat in the west.
You know...
I mean...seriously...are they such great talent evaluators that they would manage to know, when nobody else did, that Kevin Martin and Josh Howard were going to be really good players, and that D-Wade was going to be a superstar? If that's the case, where were these geniuses when it was the real Blazers' turn to pick and they passed on these guys? I think the real fake past future would have been somewhere in between, but I doubt very much that the championship would have transformed the Blazers into a decade-long powerhouse.
by HarryManback on Sep 13, 2007 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Well,
And in writing fiction their is the general agreement that the reader has to allow for a certain amount of "suspension of disbelief", plus the write is allowed a certain degree of "literary license".
I took full advantage of both.
The revised history
But regardless of whether or not the above scenario could play out as described, I think the question is still valid. Look at it this way...would you rather be Miami, who won a championship and now has D-Wade and a bunch of old men, or Phoenix, which will have been playing at an elite level for probably five or six years when all is said and done, but may never win a championship. Let's say Phoenix never wins it. Would you rather have been a Heat fan during those six years or a Suns fan?
Heat!
Those 12 minutes still give me the shivers when I think about it. I would have given quite a bit to have won that game. That evening could have been one of my lasting "best memories" that I would have carried with me to the grave. I still remember nearly every insignificant detail of that afternoon/ evening. To think I could have those memories in a positive light - amazing.
And I do believe that Blazer squad would have been "relevant" for several more seasons. Let's not undervalue the possibility of "maybe keep(ing) J.O. in town."
Fantastic post, by the way. Really, really good.
by bothteamsplayedhard on Sep 13, 2007 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks
by HarryManback on Sep 13, 2007 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions
To Go Back And Beat the Lakers?
In a stone-cold heartbeat.
Yes, winning championships is the point. The only reason these Blazers make me happy is because I feel confident that, at some point fairly soon, they will win a championship. I don't watch sports for the enjoyment of the rebuilding process. I watch them because some day I want my team to be able to claim they are The Best.
Lakers factor
Alternate histories aside, we should feel reassured that it's now the LA fans' turn to feel our pain. Their precious Lakers are crumbling, and it's only going to get uglier. They can look forward to crushing defeats at the hands of the Portland Trailblazers for years to come. They know that, and it's killing them.
Championships are like
If we had a crystal ball and could tell that the Blazers were never, ever going to win another one the fan base would die...even with nice guys, even with some wins. The reason that people are willing to endure 2000 and after to get what we have now is not trading championships for nice guys, but rather as Hurryup said right above, trading one championship for the chance at one or more ("perennial contention") with a much more likeable team. If people had a straight choice between that one championship in 2000 and a guaranteed none with this team I bet most would take the ring.
I would take the victory for a couple reasons. First that chance doesn't come along very often. We've made the finals only three times in my lifetime. When you're there you do anything to get it. Second it would have legitimized the careers and legacies of a lot of those guys that Harry mentioned: Smith, Grant, J. O'Neal, Sabonis, Damon. You'll notice that even Rasheed got way more positive coverage (for a while anyway) when Detroit won it all. It would have washed away a lot of grief. Third it wouldn't mean the rebuilding process would never come. It just would have been delayed a little and have taken different form.
--Dave
To say that only the title matters...
Ah yes
--Dave
Good but not quite
The journey is as important as the destination but why start a journey without a destination?
by tominhawaii on Sep 13, 2007 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I could live with that.
Might be the reason my wife puts up with me.
Great post
But as time revealed the true nature of some of those guys, it made it difficult to be nostalgic for that season and those "good ol' days." Winning a championship that year would have validated the throw a bunch of money and talent together and hope it all meshes approach. I am guessing more teams would be doing that now instead of not signing guys like they did this off-season. The luxury tax probably has more to do with it than the lack of success by the Blazers but I am sure some GMs took notice of the results in Portland.

by 



















