Looking to the Future

by Dave on Aug 8, 2007 1:33 AM PDT in News Comment 41 comments

Yesterday I talked about how nice it is to be a Blazer fan right now. I even got Truehooped for the trouble. (Yes, that's officially a verb now. Congrats Henry.) But even as we pass over a hurdle that once seemed all but impossible to leap I can't help reflecting that the next few are going to be considerably higher.

Even in the midst of our relative giddiness you have to admit that we're in kind of a honeymoon period here. So far every move has looked solid, every player has said incredible things, and (as I mentioned yesterday) we haven't suffered through even a single loss yet with the revamped roster. What's not to love?

I fully anticipate a minor letdown this year. I say "minor" because I don't really think most Blazer fans are expecting the moon this season. I'd bet a mid-to-high-30's win total would satisfy most folks when all is said and done (despite the intervening pain of losing 45 or more) and I think that's achievable.

If that seems low to you, well, that's the point. Part of the reason we're having a honeymoon--one which is likely to extend at least until next summer--is that the bar is so low right now. I'm not saying the good feelings are artificial. I'm saying they're not sustainable at this level...that the same stimuli are not going to evoke the same good feelings a couple years from now.

Think about it. After the last few years what are the major expectations for the team? I'd put them thusly:

Play reasonably hard.
Be reasonably cordial to the fans.
Don't totally screw up in your off-court life.

And for the front office:

Don't totally blow your draft picks to the point that you're trading them away the next year.
Don't be a total butthead to the people that cover you.

If everybody manages that for a whole season people are going to be plenty happy. And that's as it should be. But now stop and read that list again from, say, a Phoenix, Dallas, or San Antonio perspective. Those aren't achievements, they're very basic expectations. A coach or GM who made this a rallying cry in most cities wouldn't be feted, they'd be fired. (As in, "What the heck do you think we are??? Sheesh!")

The Blazer community right now feels a lot like being parents of a kindergartner. Our child seems precocious. (But then what parent doesn't think their precious is the smartest thing ever?) Right now the kid is learning the basics of addition and that seems to be going swimmingly. Praise is warranted. But along with that praise comes the realization that a couple years from now addition isn't going to be sufficient. Subtraction and multiplication and division follow, then algebra, geometry, trig, and calculus. If the kid's still working on addition problems three years from now--even if he does them well--he's not precocious anymore, he's special needs.

Honeymoon or no, in another couple years I guarantee the Portland fan base will have largely forgotten how good it feels just to have a non-embarrassing team. They're going to start asking questions like, "Why can't we make the playoffs?" or "Why can't we get out of the first round?" Just "being good" won't be good enough anymore.

It might seem like this is a caution to the team--a "Beware the Ides of March" to Pritchard and company (et tu, Portland?)--but I think it's as much a caution to us as fans. We have made enormous strides. We deserve a cookie. But in real terms we've only passed the most basic of hurdles. We're still concentrating hard on doing things that other folks take for granted...on and off the court. The distance between us and where we want to be (and where the fans will be asking the team to be) is still about the distance between a banana-seat bike with training wheels and the Tour de France. There's a big difference between "That's good...for Portland" and just plain "That's good!" So far we've only seen the former. The latter may be a while in coming yet. The question is, how many fans will turn from ecstatic to grumpy in the meantime? How many folks who are gushing this summer will be grumbling come May?

We shall see.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Good thoughts

You see, we got spoiled.

Back in 1970-76, it was always enough to keep your act together and play hard. They were our team, and they tried. Walton wasn't that popular because the bone spur thing made a lot of people doubt whether he was trying hard.

We never made the playoffs, and that was the dream.

Then came 1977, and we knew we were going to make the playoffs. Our heroes were really heroes, now, they won 49 games! And we had a decent chance of winning one round. Everyone would have been really, really happy with that. After all, for every Blazer fan, just to GET THERE, let alone win, was huge. So to win a round would be a bonus, like ordering a two-scoop ice cream cone and getting a third scoop for free.

Instead, we won the championship. And the next year, we started 50-10. It happened so fast -- perhaps too fast. All of a sudden, success was expected, demanded -- and it got hard to come by for a few years when key players went down injured.

Then, the Drexler/Porter/Kersey/Williams teams, and we were dreaming of a return to 1977, and nothing else would satisfy.

Now, for a brief period, we're back to 1970-76. If our team will just be OUR team and try hard, we'll back them all the way. But we won't feel that way for six years. Too many remember 1977, and the Drexler years. For this year, the playoffs is The Promised Land, the place you hope to get (if everyone on the team has their career year this year). If we make a good run at it, everyone's relatively happy -- this year.

But we were that way for years in the 70s, and people stayed happy. Won't happen again.

If we don't make the playoffs this year, we'll lose a few fans. If we don't make them next year, we'll lose a lot. And then, expectations will really go up. The Promised Land for 09-10 isn't making the playoffs, it is making the WCF, and the Finals the next year.

Fall short, and a lot of fans will drop away.

You gave it away when you talked about the Phoenix, San Antonio, or Dallas perspective. You could have talked about the Clippers or Sacramento or Memphis. But it will never be good enough again for Portland fans to have the perspective of Clippers fans. Maybe for a short time, yes -- but we've had success at the highest levels, we know what it tastes like, and we want it again.

Clippers fans don't actually believe the Clippers can get there. They might make the playoffs some years, in a dream year they might win a round. We're past that, now. We believe it can happen in Portland. That's why the Clippers fans' perspective won't ever do for us in the long term.

by jscot on Aug 8, 2007 2:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Blazermania

You bring up a good point. The years before 1977 were filled with disappointments, but there was a lot of enthusiasm and loyalty for the team. Portland was thrilled to have a major league sports team in town. Blazermania was in place before the championship - it became an impossible to miss inferno in 1977.

by bbfred on Aug 8, 2007 6:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good comment

by jamon51 on Aug 8, 2007 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm not impatient

and i'll watch the games with interest no matter if we win more than expected or flounder a bit. the blazers are my team and i like them.

last season i enjoyed watching them almost every time out. the team was competitive even though flawed.

we'll be more competitive this year, and it ought not be forgotten that golden state got into the playoffs last year and shook up the league after a regular season of 40-42.

this year there are a lot of storylines in which i feel i have some investment. marty burns and the other major nba writers are NEVER right about what they predict.

it's good that so many seem to have lowered their expectations about oden. and few seem to think outlaw will be any good. this leaves room for surprise. it'll be fun.

ignacio

by ignacio on Aug 8, 2007 4:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Softball question:

"The question is, how many fans will turn from ecstatic to grumpy in the meantime? How many folks who are gushing this summer will be grumbling come May?"

Answer: All the ones who have unrealistic expectations today. All the ones who continuously misunderstand how the world really works. All the ones looking for instant gratification.

by ken on Aug 8, 2007 6:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ken

whenever i get to vegas dinner and drinks on me buddy.absolutely right.i've been saying that since june.those people who bought season tickets now,by 2010 will not buy them if they see no title this or next season.also i like to see their reaction if no f.agents come 2 summer's from now. yeah the boom is coming like i said below goofs, it's going to take 3-5 years.maybe 7-10 years.hell d.robinson had an all*star team in 89-90,but pdx had home court advantage blazers in 7.so my ? for the fans is,will you wait 7-10 years for a blazers title with g.oden.remember 1 title in 10 years.

by fatty on Aug 8, 2007 6:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fatty...

I agree with you on this 100%... not bad considering I think your a pompous @$$ most of the time.

If I had the $$$ I would have picked up tickets myself, but I have to go the poor mans route and hope I can afford to get an HD package to watch games on my projector at home.

It will take a while for them to get close to smelling a title and we wont ever begin to see the signs of it till 3 things happen:

Roy has his break out game (it hasnt happened yet).
Aldridge has his break out game.
Oden has his break out game.

Once those three break past the awestruck "oh my god I am playing in the NBA!!!" stage and realize that THEY are the team to beat, and not the other way around, we will start to see more wins. Till then, enjoy the win harvest from the bottom feeder teams.

by Blazer on Aug 8, 2007 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the difference between

you guys and myself is i'm not biased and i'm international.i seee and listen to what the world of basketball is thinking about all the teams.and like i said before they(pricthard)went for capspace over going for the jugular.and when guys you're depending on is guys who have never done a damn thing so far in the nba.it kills the moment, if pricthard would've done a garnett deal for the bums we had on our bench forget it.we've be the buzz across america.but since we did'nt do nothing really but givaway zbo and sign blake it's ho hum. now boston that's a different story all together, they gave up their bums for k.g. a great move by d.ainge.see i would'nt be surprised if 2 years from now,if the blazers sign no f.agents at all. as for the fans i'm not going to go there.because you all know by now how i feel about 80% of the fans anyway.we'll see their true colors 2-3 years from now.if we'll still trying to make a playoff push and no titles yet e their true colors.enjoy now because it's going to be a very long ride.i say 3-5 years worth.

by fatty on Aug 8, 2007 6:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I've been mulling around a possible diary

topic related to this and knickfan's post of a couple of days ago. Guess I'll have to do it.

Regarding Dave's question - from my perspective he's partly right in that having gotten a bit tired of all the off court adventures has brought me to a point of being happy to see Portland with a bunch of guys I can like and root for, regardless of their talent level.

But ... there's always one of those, but being tired of that stuff hasn't impacted my sense of fanship. I still root for the Blazers and love watching them, whether they win 21 games or 61 games. I grew up as a Washington Senators and Redskins fan. I remember Washington being estatic when Ted Williams was named manager and when he got the team to .500 one year the town went nuts. When Vince Lombardi was named coach of the Redskins people felt it was the second coming of Christ. Ok, in Lombardi's case it was the second coming of Christ. But before Lonbardi, Allen and Gibbs, the Redskins sucked.

Hell, I'm still a Redskins and Orioles fan. Not too many playoff appearances in the past 10 years for either of those organizations. O's fans are getting giddy over being just 6 games under ... that's right UNDER ... .0500 and the possibility of catching Toronto for 3rd place in the division. My point is that the couple years of losing Portland has experienced is nothing and unlike a lot of sports franchises, Portland fans actually have valid reasons to be hopeful for the future. And what aspect is more signature of being a fan than having hope for the future?

by timg56 on Aug 8, 2007 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boston

They emptied their bums from the bench and will be intersting for one or two years but where will they be after that? If they are making the playoffs and winning 50 games in the East, they won't be getting draft picks of any significance and KG might leave after 1-2 years. They could make the finals if their big three mesh and none of them get injured but will they beat a solid Western conference team? I doubt it.

I don't really care what the international scene thinks unless it has validity. The goal in Portland appears to be to rebuild for a solid, long term run, not to clean house for one last shot at making a splash.

I like the plan. If they win 35 games this year and go down swinging, I'm happy. They are getting over the Whitsett and Nash/Patterson eras and investing in the right players for now.

by tssbro on Aug 8, 2007 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

McMillan

I suspect that Nate McMillan will be the brunt of some major discontent this coming year. He does odd things with his rotation, like taking Brandon Roy out in the first quarter and not putting him back in until halfway through the second quarter. If Roy and Aldridge average less than about 40 minutes per game, or Sergio Rodriguez is glued to the bench, or Przy starts even when Oden is playing like a beast (all of which I suspect are very possible if not probable) then McMillan will bear the brunt of the backlash. It makes things worse that he's got a pretty deep roster of young talent and everyone needs time. I'm not convinced that he'll get a handle on the rotation.

by BrailleTaser on Aug 8, 2007 7:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You could be right

Nate may have a tough time with the rotation, and I haven't found that to be his strong suit, in individual moments maybe, but as a full game conglomeration, I've often found Nate somewhat lacking. Couple that with the simple fact that many are going to find our winning % too low this year Nate may face some serious back-lash.

by drawingjeremy on Aug 8, 2007 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Pryzbilla plays like last year...

he won't be starting for very long, if at all.

by tssbro on Aug 8, 2007 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

that McMillan's substitution patterns affected (negatively OR positively) last season's all that much. This season he'll have more dilemmas as several guys play multiple positions, but I suspect our team will come out with a win total suggestive of the talent on the roster.

- Sam

by Samuelson on Aug 8, 2007 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

fans v bandwagon

true fans will always stick with the team and won't be howling if the blazers don't make the playoffs this coming year (they will).

so what? those of us who've continued to follow and pull for the team the last few years will do the same no matter what. When they go deep in the playoffs (09) the bandwagoners will come out of the woodwork.

but again... so what? look at how bad things were before last year and look at how promising the team looks now... all without the casual fan.

by rburg on Aug 8, 2007 8:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

but I'm a fan who likes to take things in the present. I'm excited for what 2009 may bring, but I don't dwell on it too much. I worry about this season, and my expectations are improvement. Once that is accomplished, I will raise my expectations, like you have said. But not all situations are the same. To expect a championship now would be foolish. Likewise, I would hope that simply rooting for 38 wins would be foolish in 2009.

--Dave

Addicted to Quack SBN's Oregon Ducks Blog

by Addicted to Quack on Aug 8, 2007 10:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We are so young.

What was the last team with two starters under 23 that made the playoffs? Add in probable bench ages of 21, 21, 23, 23 and 30 and we are just so young that I don't see a way that this team won't just make enough mistakes to lose a bunch of games. If the young guys all play a bunch of minutes and we match last season's win total I will be happy.

by EnglandDan on Aug 8, 2007 10:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Dave

Why would you be letdown with a high 30's win total? If they can even duplicate last year after getting rid of their franchise player, that's a success IMO.

- Sam

by Samuelson on Aug 8, 2007 10:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be let down at all

in fact mid-30's is about what I expect so high 30's would be great. I mean, 38-44 looks pretty darn good compared to what we've been seeing.

However I believe that the atmosphere is so positively charged around Blazerland right now that the reality of losing 45-50 games is going to take people aback. I mean, right now you can't point to much tangible that's wrong with the team. But those flaws are going to start showing up in spades once the season starts: young, inconsistent, not enough outside shooting, confusion while adapting to a new Zach-less system, inability to handle double-teams. That's going to be a letdown for some who are looking at this team on paper and envisioning greatness. Even if you logically know that greatness will only come after a few years it's hard not to get amped early in your heart.

--Dave

by Dave on Aug 8, 2007 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Put another way...

if the team could run on happy-good feelings of their fans we'd be 82-0 this year easy.

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that.

--Dave

by Dave on Aug 8, 2007 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent article

"If the kid's still working on addition problems three years from now--even if he does them well--he's not precocious anymore, he's special needs."

I thought that was especially apt.

by jamon51 on Aug 8, 2007 10:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sounds way too much...

like Martell Webster to me.

by ken on Aug 8, 2007 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even Kobe took three full years...

before he put a complete consistent game together. I like the addition anology, but the timing isn't quite right for Martell's case. For example, Trout needs to get his game working consistently this year, or he's gonna be a semi-bust. I'd give Martell one more season until he's in Trout's position. By year 4, martell needs to have a consistent game, this year is okay if he's flounders some. BUt he better show some very good flashes of play mixed in with the lapses of disappearance.

by NWfan on Aug 8, 2007 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

mmmmmmmmm

I want the cookie.

I got my front court aLaMOde!!

by shenanigans on Aug 8, 2007 10:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

stop being wusses

we are gonna dominate next year. blazer success is imminent, so stop hating and making these weak 35-40 win predictions. we gots last years rookie of the year, the number 1 pick, and a silky smooth power forward. if not the championship next year, at least the finals. BALLIN!!

by bballgenius on Aug 8, 2007 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The Great Karnac...

sees disgruntlement in your future.

by ken on Aug 8, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I second that ken

by drawingjeremy on Aug 8, 2007 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's fantastic

that you and others are bracing the town for growing pains in the next few years.

The team would agree it's the smart thing to do: underpromise and overdeliver.

Which is exactly what they will do. We have more raw talent right now than any Blazer team in our history.

The wins will come, and perhaps sooner than anyone expects. Anytime you have 3 All-star caliber players in your starting 5, you are someone to contend with.

What is lost in this argument regarding the potential loss of fans is the fact that most fans, especially of the bandwagon variety, follow sports teams because of star players, not necessarily the team.

Win or lose, we will be able to offer dynamic and exciting basketball at the hands of players such as Roy, Oden, Aldridge, Outlaw, and Sergio.

Most fans, being superficial in nature, want amazing plays and players, not necessarily winning team basketball.

How else can you explain the unpopularity of the 4-time champion SA Spurs? Or the wild popularity of Jordan's early Bulls teams, which were mediocre at best?

The fans will stay; the wins and championships will come.

Don't underestimate the impact of GREG ODEN. He is an unbelievable talent and we will make sure he reaches his potential. We were already the most talented young team in the league. Now it's almost ridiculous.

Like it or not, Rip City is Back

by sohrab19 on Aug 8, 2007 12:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I love your optimism

and hope you are right... but I'm not sure this is exclusively a tactic of under-promising and over-delivering, I know it's not on my end. Many have waited a long time for the position that we are now in and we understand that it's still an uphill battle, an uphill battle that we should prevail in because of our incredible raw talent, as you put it "the most talented young team in the league." No arguments there.

I do have an argument with the 3 all star caliber players comment. I hope you are right, but I definitely don't think we'll have 3 all star caliber players on this year's squad - based on this year's performance. Again, I hope you're right, but I think the only two that have a realistic shot at this elite level of play this year are BRoy and LMA. Both of whom may reach that level in 2007-2008, but I have to stress the may. I think both are going to be very good. I am convinced that LMA will be an All Star and that BRoy will probably go on and off the All Star team over the course of his career (make a few appearances). I also think it's highly likely that Oden will eventually be an all star caliber player, but that will probably take several years. If Mr. Oden can manage to average 15-20 minutes a game when the season comes to a close I think he will likely be coming along swimmingly and will get to that status sooner rather than later.

So, I hope you're right, boy do I hope you're right, but I think to under promise and over deliver we should be setting the bar no higher than around 30 wins. Most of us would be thrilled if we pushed towards or above 40 this year, I know I would.

by drawingjeremy on Aug 8, 2007 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow Dave

It seems like everyone has already decided that we just broke even this year. Personally I think speculation as to how many wins is ridiculous, since that number is impossible to predict for teams that made no changes, let alone the Blazers. The NBA season has too many intangible circumstances. Injuries, trades, chemistry or off-court issues, they can all drop a team's win number by 15-20 depending on when they happen.

And the Blazers haven't even played together yet!! I'd say this discussion is valuable because it reminds us to keep our blinders off, and see things for what they are.

So what are they? Well, we have a young core of three potential all-stars. But that's all it is, potential. We also have strong athletic prospects, with developing skill sets, again, "prospects" and "developing". The point is we have all the pieces to develop into a championship contender. But that's IF all the pieces meet or exceed expectations. When someone eventually fails to meet the expectations, it's up to management to replace them.

I think anyone who says Aldridge, Oden, Roy, or Travis will definately NOT be successful, is setting themselves up to look quite foolish. But then again, anyone who thinks we're 100% in the playoffs is equally foolish.

by mjm6783 on Aug 8, 2007 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

well mjm

i must be foolish because no way in hell outlaw is going to be a stud.if you believe that then damn you're dreaming.and as for bballgenius if they make the finals next year i'll get you a date with any woman on earth.this is why guys like me are always baggin on unrealistic fans finals in 09 boy you talk about being a goof.

by fatty on Aug 8, 2007 1:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

No way in hell?

See fatty, this is what I'm talking about. You can't say there's NO WAY Travis will be a strong contributing member. He doesn't have to score 20 points a night, but 10-15 isn't unreasonable at all. That's not to say it's a sure thing, but you can't write players off like that.

The point is that we won't know how this talent has developed until at least training camp. I agree it's overly optimistic to think we will win a championship in one or two years. But your controlled pessimism has transitioned to nay saying.

by mjm6783 on Aug 9, 2007 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Progress...

I am as giddy as the next person about this coming season, but I am not going to hold high expectations of anything. So long as there are more wins than last year, I will be happy.

I'm just excited to be able to witness this rebirth of our beloved team. We are going to be under .500 and I am betting there will be alot of close games this year. I expect Roy will solidify his place as a team leader. I expect LaMarcus will put the league on notice. I expect Oden will foul out alot and make some really amazing blocks and dunks in the process. There are going to be growing pains... And, I am excited as hell to get to watch it!

Beyond this year... Remember, we've got Rudy Fernandez coming, and most likely another lottery pick the next draft. There is so much more to the puzzle still on the way. We're just getting started, baby!

by david1978pdx on Aug 8, 2007 2:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Right

You're saying what I'm thinking too. But the thing is, in two years none of us are going to be thinking that. In fact this exact situation two years from now doesn't look like this post anymore. It looks like, "What the heck is wrong with the Blazers?" The heightened goodwill is also a sign that we're officially on the clock now. It seemed fitting to announce since we haven't been in that situation for, oh, seven years or so now. (The only major question in years past was how far we'd sink before we looped up again.)

--Dave

by Dave on Aug 8, 2007 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One day at a time

I know what you're saying here, but can we really look that far into the future? We've only just added a really BIG ingredient. Let's stir it in and simmer for a season and see where we are next year. Each new season brings new players and new goals and expectations. We need to get our core trio in sync first. So long as each season is progressively better than the last, I don't see how any of us should be disappointed.

by david1978pdx on Aug 8, 2007 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Blazers are looking at '09

I think management isn't even concerned with wins for the next two years. Any reasonable person knows that future success is based on the development of very young players, and that developing young players usually results in a lot of losses. That's why we actually got younger this year, we didn't go get veterans to try to make the playoffs. We got youth with talent, we were patient with the development of young guys that are coming along very slowly. I think the starting gun is two years away.

by EnglandDan on Aug 9, 2007 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Progress Indeed

You hit the nail on the head, man.

I wouldn't be shocked if we finish over .500, but with the schedule in April it promises to be tough.

We should all be excited about the playoffs or another chance at winning the lottery.

But the fun is really gonna peak in summer '09.

I, for one, love the "KP" phase of the season.

It's exciting to try and anticipate his personnel moves and draft picks. We are very lucky to have him, even if he doesn't mean what he says sometimes.

Minor irritant. Minor.

Like it or not, Rip City is Back

by sohrab19 on Aug 8, 2007 2:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm.....Don't get yer hopes up?

Sorry Dave....I don't buy it. This, my friend, it the time to start looking at the playoffs. Last year was the year when just keeping yer nose clean and trying hard was sufficient. Last year it was ok to try a bunch of different players and developing youngsters. This year we should be challenging for a playoff spot. Last year (after the break) Jarret Jack said they could still make the playoffs. His remarks were brushed off as youthful and misplaced confidence. This year the team should make every effort to make it come true. You see, that is how you develope competitiveness. You just go out and compete and don't let anyone tell you what you can't do. Meeting expectations is all well and good, but exceding them, that is special. I for one think this team will be special. Will I be really down if the guys don't make it? Probably not, as long as they put out the effort and keep developing. But will I be satisfied with just developing? No. Will the team be satisfied with just developing? I hope not!

PS Since 1985, the team who had the overall #1 pick in the previous draft increased their win total by an average of 11.5 wins the folowing season. Greg Oden is far from average. Think about it

by 92wastheyear on Aug 8, 2007 7:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Position by position

Let's take this year's team over last year's:

PG - Steve Blake gives a different dimension. JJack/Sergio will have seasoned another year. [Improved]
SG - Roy is no longer a rookie and was improving rapidly the last month of the season. Martell won't get any worse. [Improved]
SF - Replaced Ime with Trout and JJones. [Slightly worse]
PF - Zach replaced with LMA/Frye. Tough one, but LMA's defense, screens, and court coverage make up for Zach. [Even]
C - Oden will be better defensively than Magloire and will surprise with his offense. Pryz will presumably be healthy. [Slightly improved]

In addition, the West has changed to our favor:

Garnett, Ray Allen, Shard, JRich go East
Elton Brand is out
Spurs are getting old
BDavis, Nash and Iverson are getting older and may be injury prone
Dallas' win total may have peaked last year
Memphis, Houston, Utah likely slightly improved

With the intangible improvements, we've got the wind on our back. We'll start looking, talking, and acting like winners.

Barring injury, this team will be better than many here are anticipating. I'd say 42 wins and a playoff spot.

by Engineering Problem on Aug 8, 2007 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

With some health luck I expect the Blazers's to

have a winning season this year. They have a lot going for them.

The unrealistic expecations in my mind are the automatic multiple championships so many are predicting.

We're likely to be excellent in near future, but the NBA championship is another matter. Every team out there is trying to do exactly what we are.

In my mind, there's way too much emphasis placed on winning that almighty ring for our players. It would be outstanding if that came to past, but there are other levels of success. Winning the Western Conference championship, or even playing for it are a couple of them - and good ones to boot.

by TwoDeep on Aug 8, 2007 8:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Playoffs

I think that, if this team stays healthy, the playoffs are not a longshot. I think Portland will be the 8th seed, and then bow in 5 or 6 to the Suns or Spurs. They will win about 42-45 games this year. Roy wasn't healthy the whole year, and they gave the Spurs a battle the times they played them. This team needs to make the playoffs for experience's sake and to start climbing the ladder to the top, where I expect them to be in 10 or 11.

by PABlzrfn on Aug 9, 2007 9:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs