Rotation

by Dave on Aug 6, 2007 1:09 AM PDT in News Comment 45 comments

We've been doing a pretty good job of playing backseat driver to Kevin Pritchard so far this summer. Let's change up a little bit today and put on our Coach McMillan hat.

Here is the Blazer roster as it stands now:

Lamarcus Aldridge
Steve Blake
Channing Frye
Taurean Green
Jarrett Jack
James Jones
Raef LaFrentz
Josh McRoberts
Darius Miles
Greg Oden
Travis Outlaw
Joel Przybilla
Sergio Rodriguez
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster

Let's make a couple assumptions:

A. Other than Rudy Fernandez and a first-rounder coming in next year and taking the slots of whichever two players you like least on that list the roster is going to remain basically unchanged for the next couple seasons, at least as far as major moves.

B. We're going to want to actually win at some point in the next two years.

C. Despite everybody seeing potential in everybody on the roster winning teams usually have a regular rotation of nine or so players (unless you're Hubie Brown). You may love 'em all but you can't play 'em all.

Given those assumptions:

Give me your 8-9 man rotation at the start of the season. Who plays where? Who starts, who comes off the bench, and who are you going to leave sitting, waiting for mop-up minutes?
If you see the rotation evolving significantly either later this season or by next season tell me who, how, and why.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Right now

I start:
Oden/Aldridge/Webster/Roy/Jack

These are the guys I want to see play together and stand or fall at the beginning of the season.

First guys off the bench logging significant minutes are Frye, Blake, and Outlaw.

I think this gives Nate flexibility to read the flow of the game and substitute as that flow demands. If Oden gets early fouls and the opposing team is quick and smaller, Frye or Outlaw can come in at PF and Aldridge moves to Center. If it is a bigger, halfcourt team than Joel can take over. If Webster is not shooting well, Outlaw can come in and upgrade the defense and knock down the 20 footer. Blake comes in for Jack to up the tempo and provide some 3 pt shooting.

Start of the second quarter sees Webster coming back in for Roy and Frye,Outlaw or Joel comes in for Aldridge making a line-up of:
Joel,Frye,Outlaw,Webster, Blake.

Pryzbilla, Jones, and Sergio pick up a few minutes here and there depending on match-ups, flow of the game and foul trouble.

That leaves Green and Miles not dressing down and Raef and McRoberts fighting for the honor of being last man on the bench.

by tssbro on Aug 6, 2007 1:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

young guys dream team

I do think it is an interesting starting lineup with Webster - i.e. the young-guys-come-to-fruition lineup - but I think Webster's inconsistency and lack of D will make for short minutes until those things improve.

I see Joel as being getting good minutes in his solid-veteran-role-player mode, assuming he is playing decently this year.

put a body on 'em

by RayBourque on Aug 6, 2007 2:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty easy, I think

1. Beginning of season -
Rotation: Blake, Jack, Roy, Jones, Outlaw, Aldridge, Frye, Oden, Pryzbilla. Outlaw more 3 than 4, others pretty obvious (no Frye at 3).
Starters: Blake (maybe JJ), Roy, Jones, Aldridge, Oden.
Occasional doses of Webster, Rodriguez, and maybe Raef prior to mop-up time.
IR: Miles, Green, McRoberts

2. Changes during season -
As Oden gets better at not taking on fouls he stays in longer and Joel plays less. Outlaw might get a little more time at the four with Frye at the 5. And Martell gets minutes which are the ones Joel lost. Sergio gets more time eventually, perhaps by a JJ trade. And Darius ?????

put a body on 'em

by RayBourque on Aug 6, 2007 2:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't know Jones enough yet

Webster starting is more out of the idea that Outlaw would come off the bench at either the 3 or 4 and Frye at the 4 or 5.

Jones is out of my picture right now b/c I just don't know enough about him. He will certainly get minutes as a shooter.

I agree that Joel's minutes will go down as Frye and Outlaw take them away from him and Oden grows into his game.

I do think Sergio is the odd man out unless Jack is traded later in the year. I don't see that happening this year though.

by tssbro on Aug 6, 2007 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My call

Starters:
PG - Blake, for experience as much as anything.
SG - Roy.
SF - This is the hard one. They are talking Travis, I think it should be James Jones, for experience and 3-pointers. I think the two of them will largely split the time here at first, and that it doesn't matter much who starts.
PF - Aldridge.
C - Oden.

Main guys off the bench -- Jack at both guard spots, Frye to back up both 4 & 5 (Aldridge moving to the 5 when Frye comes in for Oden), and either Travis or Jones, whichever one doesn't start at SF.

Pryz will play a role as well, but his minutes will decline over the course of the year. Martell will get enough minutes at 2 (and perhaps 3 occasionally) to have a chance to earn more.

That's 10, not 8-9. Green plays development league, Darius and Raef mostly sit, Sergio and McRoberts get mop up time.

The only thing that is certain is that it WILL change over time. By mid-season, Pryz is tradeable, and hopefully ups his trade value in the process.

Hopefully, at least one of Martell, Travis, Sergio, or Green demonstrates the ability to be a key piece for us in the future, or Jack demonstrates that he is going to be really, really good as a combo guard.

If one of the PGs makes huge strides and takes minutes from Jack, you have to trade Jack before he loses trade value. If Martell takes off, it might mean fewer minutes at 2 for Blake and Jack, or it might mean he starts at 3 with Travis off the bench. If Jack proves he's a great backup at both 1 & 2, we might give Sergio minutes for a stretch to showcase him and then trade him (I doubt it, I think Sergio stays at least through Rudy's first year here).

But until we see who develops and who doesn't, we can't really anticipate the rotation later in the year. Too many young guys with potential, and if any of them takes off it can mean trades or major rotation changes.

by jscot on Aug 6, 2007 3:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

however

I think that Jones should be in the starting lineup if no one else takes it from him. He is probably most effective in Post Aldridge/oden scenario where he recieves more shots

by Blazerhopeful on Aug 6, 2007 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I hope it is Jones, because I think he will be more effective with the starters and I think Travis will be more effective against the other team's bench. But Nate and KP sound as if it is Travis' job to lose. Maybe I'm reading them wrong....

by jscot on Aug 6, 2007 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Almost exactly what I would have written

Blazerhopeful's comment is also an excellent addendum. The only other modification I'd make is to say at the start of the season I do expect Joel to have a decent amount of minutes due to fouls. I'm not convinced that we can come that close to a 3 man 4/5 rotation just yet... but I do agree that by mid-season Joel should be a whole lot less necessary as the foul trouble situation improves for our 3 fairly young 4/5s that will be in serious rotation minutes.

by drawingjeremy on Aug 6, 2007 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lessee...

Starters: Blake, Roy, J. Jones, Aldridge, Oden.
6th Man(s): Outlaw and Frye
Key Bench Players: Jack, Webster, Frye, Outlaw.
Foul trouble subs: Pryzzle, Raef, Sergio
Inactive List: Green, McRoberts, Miles

As of now, I'd say that is the WANTED 9 man rotation, but it will change due to our bigs probably getting into foul trouble, putting Pryzzle and maybe even McRoberts out there-- though I bet McMillan will prefer Raef's experience (if healthy) over McRoberts rookieness (though I want McRoberts out there cause we ain't going for the gold now). Outlaw and Frye will challenge each other for backup minutes at the 4 spot; Outlaw can play the 3 but is effective off the bench at the 4 and Frye can only play the 4 (and the 5 as long as the other team's guy isn't too big), so figuring out who works best might take time. Perhaps a skinny lineup of Frye at center and Outlaw at PF we'll be the route we take.

Webster will back up Roy and J. Jones. In my heart of hearts, I'd like Webslinger to start at SF, but until he can play WITHOUT being the main option on offense, he should come off the bench. When he gets shots, he scores. Have him get shots in the 2nd unit and let him grow. Most minutes will be at SF because Roy will play 40 mins a night.

Jack plays the combo guard role, is not happy with it, and we'll see how it goes. He COULD start, but right now I'd predict Blake winning the job. I hope Jack doesn't JUST score in the second unit and keeps being a PG and not a scoring PG. He'll still get good/decent minutes, but not at the end of games when it counts. I can't see how this won't be a very frustrating year for Captain Jack.

With the signing of Blake, I can't see Sergio getting as many minutes as a lot of games last year. Of course, we won't be winning and it shouldn't matter TOO much, but we all know Nate is particular with his PGs. Jack/Blake will gobble pretty much all the minutes.

And with the addition of Frye, I can't see Pryzzle getting much minutes either. I love the guy, like his defense, but I bet Nate plays the solid Frye over Pryz with an eye towards the future. Luckily for Joel, at least one of our young bigs will get in foul trouble nearly every game and he'll be needed to fill in. It just won't be a regular part of the rotation...

There shouldn't be much room for Raef, unless Quick IS right and he has a mini-ressurection and becomes the first post guy off the bench. But I say we just got too many young bigs we wanna play, and Raef's unreliable body isn't something we need to push out there. But like Joel, Raefer will get minutes cause of other's foul troubles.

Only possible change: Switch McRoberts with Raef.

We're young, but I like what we got. We be deep (but inexperienced o' course) at every position, and spreading the minutes around will be Nate's toughest job.

NEXT YEAR: I dunno about Rudy... I like him, have seen him play in the Olympics and normal games, and I believe his game will eventually adjust well to the NBA style. I am not sure how long it would take or who he plays over-- but he could theoritically be the first guy off the bench. The only way he starts is if Roy becomes the starting PG. Roy will be the PG at the end of games, so perhaps Rudy's offense will get him on the floor as the SG in the closing minutes.

We all know being there at the end is more important than starting. Only immature suckas thinks otherwise.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Aug 6, 2007 3:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Mortimer

I just wish Przybilla would get a little more burn though. He probably will, with the foul trouble. I feel like he has a lot to offer.

by jamon51 on Aug 6, 2007 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

9 man rotation

starters

blake
roy
j.jones
aldridge
oden

bench guys

jack
outlaw
frye
pryzbilla

out of the rotation

webster
raef
green
sergio

webster will see more minutes
than the other 3.boy do we
need some offensive punch very
badly or what.

by fatty on Aug 6, 2007 5:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Offense...

I know I sound like an idiot, but we might be okay on offense. We would just have a very team oriented offense rather than a superstar method. Roy and Aldridge can both be called on to take on the scoring load. Neither is a lights out guy, but both (in fact most everybody) can play smart and create opportunities that might not require a Kobe Bryant to take advantage of. I remain convinced that some players on some very good teams look like far more effective offensive threats simply because of the team and their ability to work with it - and not just their individual talents.

by jcox on Aug 6, 2007 6:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh man,

I agree with fatty 100% on this one. Weird.

I got my front court aLaMOde!!

by shenanigans on Aug 6, 2007 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

9 Man Rotation

Starting 5:

Blake, Roy, Jones, Aldridge, Oden

Blake instead of Jack because of his pass-first point guard instincts and he's better at staying in front of his man on D.

I've picked Jones ahead of Outlaw for his 3 point shooting, which will space the floor for Oden and Aldridge to do their thing inside. He's pretty solid on the wing as a finisher and on perimeter D.

Rotational 4:
Jack, Outlaw, Frye, Przybilla

Jack is solid, but not a true PG. Outlaw could be an All-Star one day. Channing and Lamarcus were separated at birth. Przybilla is the forgotten man... when healthy he's a beast.

On the bubble:
McRoberts, Webster

McRoberts for his aggression, hustle and nifty passing game... this guy will command more minutes. With a high premium on outside shooting, Webster needs to deliver.

Out of rotation:
Green, Rodriguez, LaFrentz, Miles

I think Green and Rodriguez are definitely starting material, but will need time to develop. Who knows, maybe in 2009-10 the Blazers won't need to sign either Paul or D-Wil if one of these guys steps up. Sergio has the biggest potential of any of our PGs to be the next Steve Nash... he has creative vision but needs to learn how to run this team.

by Clyde the Glide on Aug 6, 2007 7:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Pre season and Regular season

Pre season starters
Blake, Roy, Outlaw, Aldridge, Przybilla

Don't put the pressure of starting center out of the gate on Odens shoulders. Let him ease into it. We don't "need" him to win our first 5 games, he "needs" good player developement.

Regular season
Blake, Roy, Frye, Aldridge, Oden.

With Blake and Roy in the back court, and 3 of 5 tallest points in Oregon down low. Mmmm low post scoring.

by PTBfan on Aug 6, 2007 7:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Low Post Scoring

We can't have 3 bigs trying to find room to score on the blocks, with Blake and Roy hoisting up three's at the end of the shotclock.

It ain't gonna happen 'cause it ain't gonna work.

by t jay on Aug 7, 2007 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Low Post Scoring II

Here's another reason why you can't have three bigs on the blocks: (doing my best Brian Wheeler voice)

"Blake's three goes wide left........Bynum gets the rebound.......outlet pass to Kobe......it's three on one against Roy........."

by t jay on Aug 7, 2007 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Much depends on Training Camp,

especially for bubble players. Travis Outlaw could go anywhere from barely playing to starting small forward. He will need to show that he can play and get playing defense on starting small forwards. But if he get a decent training camp showing, he will be in the rotation. Chances are, his defense on 3's will not be as good as James Jones, so I'll have him coming off the bench, but I think he will be in the rotation. If he really does score like he did at the end of last year in games that count, he will be a very important sixth man.

Likewise, Martell Webster can compete for the starting job and the end of the bench. I think he'll be sitting at the end of the bench this time. This is especially true if McRoberts can play some 3, and I'm going to say that he shows he can in training camp. Darius Miles could come in and screw everything up, but I just don't think that's very likely.

Sergio Rodriguez is an important player for our future, but for this year, he is in a situation like Martell Webster. Taurean Green is much more consistent and makes fewer mistakes. I'm going to say that at least for stretches, Sergio is going to find himself at tenth man this year.

So the depth chart is like this:

LaMarcus Aldridge
Brandon Roy
Steve Blake
Greg Oden
James Jones
Travis Outlaw
Channing Frye
Jarrett Jack
Joel Przybilla
Taurean Green
Josh McRoberts
Sergio Rodriguez
Raef LaFrentz
Martell Webster
Darius Miles

Sheesh, too many players. If it really is just 9 players in the rotation, lots are going to end up not playing much, and the quality of player on injured reserve this year is better than it's been in years.

by ranma on Aug 6, 2007 7:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This is not something I'd want to bet on.

Aldridge and Roy.

The only two who are sure bets to be in the starting lineup. After that, who knows. Fatty & Clyde's choice looks fairly likely. But until Nate's seen everyone in camp, who knows what the opening night lineup is going to look like.

I think Pryzbilla has a 50 - 50 chance of beginning the season in the starting lineup.

I expect to see Blake starting, but the job is Jack's to lose in camp.

I'm leaning toward Travis starting. I think the plan is to give him PT and see if he can grow into the SF position. If he struggles, Jones is there.

I don't see Frye winning a starting spot, but again, who knows. It is not unreasonable to think he might earn the job at center ahead of Joel and Oden.

Jones could end up anywhere from starting to sitting at the end of the bench as insurance.

Jack should get decent minutes even if he doesn't start.

I don't know what Webster and Rodriguez will get. Unless Pritchard has indicated he wants to see these two get minutes early in the season, I think the only way they get on the court for double digits with Nate is if they earn it in practice. (Meaning they better learn to play defense.)

So;

Blake
Roy
Outlaw
Aldridge
Pryzbilla ... or maybe Frye

Jack and Oden first two off the bench.

I'm wondering if Nate is going to spend the first third or more of the season to experiment with lineups. If the pressure isn't there to make the play-offs, he may be free to treat the season as an extended camp.

by timg56 on Aug 6, 2007 8:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow!...

...When I look at that roster in your parent post I can see why eyebrows are raised around the league...

STARTERS
Jack - earns that starter's spot.
Roy - duh?
Jones - with a real battle between Webster/MILES* by mid-season.
Aldridge - duh?
Odie - outside of injury, the guy probably NEVER missed a tip-off.

KEY BENCH
Blake - too much savvy.
Outlaw - could start, but plays better off the bench.
Frye - perfect backup at the 4.
Pryz - perfect backup at the 5.

REMAINDER (in order of minutes)
McRoberts
Green
Sergio
Raef

* Admitting to some wishful thinking with equal amounts of gut feeling and common sense, I think Miles' surgery recovery and new attitude will be the human interest story of this year....Let 'er fly!

" If you can do it in black wingtips, it aint a sport!" Ken

by Dr Dave on Aug 6, 2007 8:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

a video game champion right now

its a given that darius and raef wont be here in 2 years...I dont know anything about jones really so I cant speak about him... and i'm pretty sure jack or sergio will be moved.. for some reason i think they will hold on to green as cheap productive insureance ..the sky is the limit

if it can be conceived it can be achieved

by lyfefindsaway on Aug 6, 2007 8:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll take a stab

Right now...starters:

PG - Blake
SG - Roy
SF - Jones
PF - Aldridge
C - Oden

Rotation:
Frye backs up both PF and C, giving Portland one of the strongest young big rotations in the league.

The winner of the epic Trout/Webster battle (yawn) basically splits time with James Jones, who wins the starting spot by default for being able to hit an open shot AND play a little defense. Frye and Roy also see a little time here when the team decides to go big or small, since most of the talent on the team is not at the SF.

At the guard spots, things stay a little crowded with Sergio and Jack spelling Blake and Jack coming in for Roy. Sergio allows them to completely change things up during a game with a lineup of Sergio-Jack-Roy-Outlaw-Frye(Aldridge). But, while improved, the young man is still prone to some mistakes and watches Jack from the bench a good portion of the time. None of our PGs play more than 25 minutes per game.

Sorry...either Webster or Outlaw gets the bench (probably Webster). Przybilla is a practice dummy for Oden.

Next year...starting lineup:
PG - Sergio
SG - Roy
SF - Jones
PF - Aldridge
C - Oden

Rotation:
Frye still backing up PF & C

Outlaw or Webster still backing up Jones (we still need shooting in the starting lineup, so unless Webster puts it together, it's Jones).

Sergio leapfrogs the other PGs with a strong summer and training camp. Rudy Fernandez backs up Roy, often with Roy sliding over to PG. Jack is a non-factor (probably traded). Blake plays a limited role behind the top-3, sometimes bailing Sergio out when he reverts to making dumb mistakes.

by HarryManback on Aug 6, 2007 8:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

easy

Starters:

Oden (duh)
LaMarcus (duh)
Travis (the defensive presence with these three will be ridiculous)
Roy (duh)
Blake (a bit more of a true PG than Jack)

Bench rotation players:

Jarrett: should see 30 mins a game backing up both guard positions
Jones: Backup 3 should provide some outside shooting
Joel: We know Oden will have some foul troubles
Frye: Back up LMA and maybe spell Oden/Pryz in stretches

Thats really my nine man rotation of who I want playing most of the minutes. Here's the rest:

Martell: The one other guy who probably has a chance to work his way into the rotation, but needs to show a lot more consistency.
Sergio: Still not ready for a rotation spot
Raef: Still servicable in stretches, want to have a spot for him in case of injuries/foul trouble

IR/NBDL Spots:

McRoberts: Could be something, just not yet
Green: NBDL only place he's getting minutes

Please retire:

15: Darius

--Dave

Addicted to Quack SBN's Oregon Ducks Blog

by Addicted to Quack on Aug 6, 2007 9:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Too Easy....

Starters - Blake, Roy, Jones, Aldridge, Oden.

Off the Bench - Jack, Frye, Outlaw, McRoberts.

Splinters in their Arse - Green, Miles, LaFrentz, Joel, Sergio and Brickster.

What did I win?

by Hank on Aug 6, 2007 10:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Pritchard has built for the 2nd line.

Blake and Jones might not be the best, most talented players, but they would play within their roles and help the big three the most.

Starters:
Blake
Roy
Jones
Aldridge
Oden

If you recall the end of last season, Trout excelled when he was the main option on the court. When he is called on to be a role player and to shrug scoring responsibilities to other players, his lack of basketball IQ really showed. I have questions about how effective he would be when he is the fourth option on offense.

He is definitely most effective when he's allowed to just score... Meaning that he's gonna be the 1st or second option on the second line. And I'm saying that our second rotation depends on us going small or big.

Small 2nd line:
Sergio
JJ
Webster
Trout
Frye

Big 2nd line:
JJ
Webster
Trout
Frye
Pryz

And I trust Nate to make the call on whether to go big or go small after seeing the starters run.

In both of these lineups, Frye, Trout, Webster and JJ can all assume more scoring responsibilities than they would if they were starting. All four of these guys are best if they get more shots, whereas Blake and Jones can refer to the big three.

by zoltarthecrusher on Aug 6, 2007 10:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This is spot on

Coach Jack Ramsey used a 2-platoon, 10-man rotation and it was extra effective because the 2nd unit had worked together so often and well. When we win in the next two years it will be most often because we are deeper than most opponents.

I do like Joel getting minutes. I am also a big fan of Josh McRoberts who will get time by the end of the year. I loved Raef at Kansas and have been saddened as the years have diminished his body. He can be dependable and ready if we need him to cover foul and injury situations. I am also skeptical about using Frye at 5.

Nice work here.

by lee3022 on Aug 6, 2007 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to see a 2 platoon unit also.

I suspect the reason we don't see it much in the NBA is because the game has become one of matchups.

Personally, I'd like to see us worrying less about how we match up to other teams on any given night and let them worry about matching up to us.

by timg56 on Aug 7, 2007 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maximize Assets

Tough one. Where do the pieces fit, and how do they work together? Who's going to be the energy guy off the bench to keep things moving? Who will sit and watch, waiting for their opportunity? Here's my response.

Starting:

Oden. He's young, but he needs to start learning the game.
Aldridge. No-brainer.
Jones. Outlaw may be better, but he doesn't fit the line-up. Solid defender and 3pt shooter to replace Ime.
Roy. I wish we could clone this kid.
Jack. Roy and Jack are a great fit.

Bench:

Frye. First big off the bench.
Outlaw. When the energy level slows, put him in for a dose of NOS.
Webster. Limited, but consistent minutes.
Blake. High BBall IQ, good at calling the game for whoever's on the floor with him.

Limited minutes:

Pryzbilla. Need fouls? He's your man.
McRoberts. A big that can facilitate. He might see time.
Sergio. "You'd better teach that kid some control before he kills somebody." Get him some Jason Kid video to watch.

Call in sick, nobody will notice:

Green. NBDL-bound. He needs minutes to learn the game and won't get them here.
Miles. What do you say?
Raef. Forever known as the guy we took on so we could get Roy. At least he's getting PAID.

Evolution- There are three things I see coming for the team:

Jack loses the starting job to Blake by the All-Star break due to his problems running the fast-break and 3pt shooting.
Jones loses his starting spot to Outlaw withing 2 months because he's inconsistent behind the 3pt line. Juan Dixon suffered from the same problem.
Webster asks to be traded after going to a strip club with Darius and getting an alien insterted into his brain. Zach suffered from the same problem.

by Steve The Hedge on Aug 6, 2007 10:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Rotation

Let me preface this by acknowledging that i'm pretty sure we brought in Steve to start, even though I think that's ridiculous. Jack should be given every opportunity to start and lead this team, and then Steve could be a very valuable backup.

Regardless this is the lineup I envision:

Jack: I think he should be able to beat our Blake, unless Pritchard and Nate are hell bent on starting Blake regardless of all other objective evidence. Alot of the arguments for Blake are subjective (heart, true pg, etc.), whereas the numbers speak for Jack. Especially when you consider the age difference and the potential for improvement for Jack as opposed to Blake.

Roy: No brainer. I also don't think that Rudy will come in and start next year at the 2 and thus moving Roy to the 1. Roy will be most valuable at the 2. Also, come on guys, we know nothing of Rudy. Starting in the NBA isn't easy, we shouldn't just assume Rudy (a 20 something pick) will be our immediate starter.

Outlaw: I don't know why so many people are enamored by James Jones. I think it's because no one has really seen him play. I know i barely have, and i don't remember being at all impressed. On the other hand, Outlaw's a player, we signed him to a deal, and should be looking to see how he fits. I think he's a decent enough shooter to be a spot up shooter when needed.

Aldridge: No brainer obviously. I do want to see him be a little more agressive and draw fouls and go to the line. He barely shot free throws last yera. If you look at his monster games, he had to make like 12-14 shots from the field. It'll be alot easier if he can get 5-7 pts from the line each game.

Oden: No point in not starting him. He is the franchise savior. I'm also pretty confident that he'll blow away our tempered expectations of him (due to his summer league performance and whatnot). Remember how Durant played exquisitely against team USA? I can see Oden simply taking the challenge and doing extremely well.

Bench:

Frye - 1st man off the bench. Oden might need a breather early.
Blake - Solid backup PG
Webster/Miles - Backup at the 2/3
Pryz - spot minutes. I don't see a future role for him here. He's not that good, and that contract is going to be an albatross as he gets older. We really should move him for a shorter contract.
Sergio - Will get minutes, but they won't be consistent. I don't think he's at all a sure fire bet at PG in the future. He'll be a crowd favorite. Maybe if we're down big, and he helps rally a 10 pt come back, he'll stay in.

Everyone else will have spot minutes I guess.

by ssa400 on Aug 6, 2007 11:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

rotation

As the official Blazers Edge Prognosticator (I'll run this into the ground until someone takes the title from my cold dead hands) I see the following happening:

Starters
-Steve Blake
-BRoy
-Trout
-Aldridge
-Oden

Subs
-Jack - I see him backing up both Blake and Roy and seeing more time at the 2 than at the 1, much the way he played with Sergio last year
-Frye - First off the bench, fills in wherever the fouls are on the front line
-Webster- Back-up 3... he's just not quick enough to guard a 2 at this point, but he provides great outside shooting as a 3
-Sergio - Plays the point when we play small ball and run. I think he gets more time than people are currently thinking, based upone what he did last year.
-Pryzbilla - He's our enforcer, think of him ass a white Charles Oakley. He rebounds, blocks shots and defends, but only sees a lot of minutes if there's foul trouble, or if Bruce Bowen cheap shots Roy
-JJones - I think he is Pritchards first bust of a trade. He excelled in Phoenix's system which inflated his numbers significantly. If he was really a starter or decent back-up, they wouldn't have sold him out right. I don't think he plays much.
-Raef - Filling a roster spot till 2009
-McRoberts - He'll be good to keep around for Oden, both as a body he can abuse in practice and as a friend. He also comes from a winning college program which is nice, but I think he plays clean-up minutes at best
-Green - Starting point guard for Dallas-Fort Worth

Did I forget someone?

Oh yeah... Miles - I propose we put Miles on some sort of bizzaro Blazer's schedule. If the Blazer's are on the road, he's in Portland, if the Blazer's are at home, then he's required to report to the home arena of whichever team is visiting that night. This guarantees he can't corrupt any of the young talent. Plus, he's almost guaranteed to lose some weight with all that traveling, which might make him more attractive in a trade.

by fromagnon on Aug 6, 2007 1:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

More crazy talk...

Why doesn't Sergio get shipped to Boise for two months? Let him run our offense there 40 minutes a night with McRoberts joining him.

And just to really jump in the deep end, I propose sending Martell with them. Promise him it's a two month thing, and that he'll play 30+ minutes at SF with Sergio, McRoberts at 4 and that 30 year old center from Summer league. They'll go undefeated and each get a chance to fix the holes in their games. Then the three of them are promised a shot at starting in month three of our year long preseason. Green goes to Boise when the others return.

If we were to do this, and even if we don't, my beginning of season squad is based on the following assumptions.

If Jack starts for the first few months, then Jones should be in the same lineup for smarter team play, I don't think that Travis and Jack together is so sound. Let Blake and Travis come in together later and play 30 minutes a game. Blake's bbl IQ limits the downside as Travis learns.

Frye backs up the two big studs 30 minutes a game and Pryz keeps Oden's fouls from completely derailing us.

Jack and Blake play together when Roy sits.

Raef and TGreen get splinters. Miles gets healthy.

1.Jack- ego needs to start
2.Roy- so well said above; "duh"
3.Jones- steady, smart
4.Aldridge- ditto duh
5.Oden- start the future now

6.Frye- I like LMA at 5, Frye only at 4
7.Blake- instant calming force
8.Outlaw- Blake makes him better, he only plays 3

9.Pryz- middle reliever eats up minutes as needed

When Sergio, McRob and Martell get back, look for wholesale changes.

by ojala on Aug 6, 2007 1:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I see where you're going with this

but if I understand the rules properly, Martell can't be D-League'd, as he's a third-year player. I also don't think McRob will be competing for a starting spot with or without Boise time this year, though I do think he has a lot of potential.

by abdelnaby on Aug 6, 2007 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

NBDL rules

Your proposal sounds okay for th eyoung guys, BUt I don't think Webster can go down the the development league. I thought that was only for platers in their 1st 2 years. Martell is entering his 3rd season.

by NWfan on Aug 6, 2007 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

James Jones

I just finished reading Jack McCallum's "7 seconds or Less" and he had some interesting stuff on James Jones. It boils down to not having good game prep habits, and he tries to create shots, which is not his forte. Phoenix wanted him to catch and shoot but he just couldnt do it. On the positive side he is a good person.

At this point it seems like we may have a bigger hole at SF than previously thought unless someone takes James Jones and shows him how to be a pro. So if he is not playing then we should make sure that he is nowhere near Miles.

by jonestr on Aug 6, 2007 2:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting.

Starters:
Steve Blake-PG
Brandon Roy-SG
Travis Outlaw-SF
LaMarcus Aldridge-PF
Greg Oden-C

Bench Players:
Jarrett Jack-PG,SG
Martell Webster-SG,SF
Channing Frye-SF,PF
Joel Pryzbilla-C

Third String:
Sergio Rodriguez-PG
Taurean Green-PG,SG
James Jones-SG,SF
Josh McRoberts-SF,PF

Injured Reserve:
Darius Miles-SF
Raef LaFrentz-C

James Jones gets pushed to the third string if Martell steps up like he needs to, and Outlaw performs like everyone expects him to. Otherwise he moves up as needed. That's the thing, we have a lot of young players, and so we will be inexperienced. But if one player is injured or fails to produce, someone is there to take their spot. It breeds healthy competition, which helps young guys develop faster.

by mjm6783 on Aug 6, 2007 3:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Depth Charts

PG:

Steve Blake
Jarret Jack
Sergio Rodriguez
Taurean Green

SG:

Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Taurean Green
James Jones

SF:

Travis Outlaw
Martell Webster
James Jones
Josh McRoberts

PF:

LaMarcus Aldridge
Channing Frye
Josh McRoberts

Greg Oden
Joel Przybilla/Channing Frye
Raef LaFrentz

Blake, Roy, Outlaw, Aldridge, Oden starting with Frye playing backup to Aldrige and sometimes Oden. Pryzbilla also coming off the bench (especially if Oden gets in foul trouble and Pryzbilla remembers how to play defense). I don't like James Jones as much as some, although his experience could move him up at times, especially in the SG rotation if Martell doesn't show improvement. I also like McRoberts to see playing time at SF even though I have him at #4 in that position. I think SF could see a large number of different players all getting a fair number of minutes, at least at the beginning of the season until someone establishes themselves.

by sixth on Aug 6, 2007 4:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

MPG

Aldridge: 37 MPG
Roy: 37 MPG
Blake: 35 MPG
Oden: 32 MPG
Jack: 32 MPG
Outlaw: 31 MPG
Frye: 18 MPG
Jones: 18 MPG
Przybilla: 11 MPG

Basically Jack taking all the backup PG and SG minutes ala Barbosa. Jones comes in as a specialist off the bench and Frye takes most of what's left behind Oden and Aldridge. Przybilla is a defensive specialist as matchups dictate.

- Sam

by Samuelson on Aug 6, 2007 5:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Bad Math

The maximum number of minutes any group of players can play in a single game is 240 (48 x 5). Your post tallies 251 minutes with none for Webster, McRoberts, Raef, Green or Sergio.

The MPG average for each player has to be some division of 240.

by t jay on Aug 8, 2007 12:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bad Math II

Here's another way to see your analogy:

NBA GAME 240 MINUTES MAX

Aldridge 37 MPG
Roy 37
Blake 35
Oden 32
Jack 32

This leaves an average of 6.7 MPG for every other member on a roster of 15.

by t jay on Aug 8, 2007 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do the math

Actually, if you take into account games played, the notion that players play multiple positions, and the small players that play garbage minutes, the airtight vacuum you're referring to doesn't exist.

Look at last year's team:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2007.html

Add up all the MPG positionally and you're likely to get a number that varies from the neat 240 you refer to.

I'll go you one better: Look at the MPG of the Phoenix Suns last year.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHO/2007.html

I borrowed the MPG values from that squad directly. So the notion of MPG is somewhat fluid . I take your point, however.

- Sam

by Samuelson on Aug 8, 2007 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Overtime...............My bad

I forgot that most teams play several overtime games each year. This is the only way a team's total individual MPG can exceed 240. The positions a player plays and when he plays them has no effect on the total number of minutes available for the coach to distribute to any number of players.

Do the math.

by t jay on Aug 9, 2007 1:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Need some outside shooting

Starters:

Brandon Roy

Lamarcus Aldridge

Jarrett Jack (Only to keep his ego intact at the very beginning - it is put up or shut up time for JJ. If he doesn't perform, he will get back up minutes at the 2.)

Travis Outlaw - I liked Steve on the Hedge's comment about why Jones should start, but we are still rebuilding, and the org will want to see if he can take the next step.

Greg Oden - Will get yanked pretty early each quarter to get lessons from the coaches and save him from injury and foul trouble.

Very regular rotation:
This is a pretty good second unit.

Steve Blake

Channing Frye

James Jones

Joel Pryzbilla

Will depend on how they perform:
If these guys show any progress at all, they will be the first off the bench for their position. If they don't, they won't play much.

Sergio Rodriguez - He shows that he really has potential to be great, or we start believing in "The Next Steve Nash #2": Koponen. I'd love to see him running the pick-and-roll with his choice of Oden or Aldridge.

Martell Webster - He has to become more aggressive at driving and looking for picks. He also has to hit his open threes. You want your back-up 2 to be a potential one-man scoring machine, and we haven't seen that in him.

Garbage Time:

Raef LaFrentz

Josh McRoberts

NBDL:

Taurean Green

Albatross:

Darius Miles - If he does come back, and can play, he needs to get enough minutes to be trade-able. So, we'll have to hold our noses and put up with him for while.

by hoopla on Aug 6, 2007 6:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Thinking about change

I remember Larry Brown was accused of starting 40 different lineups in New York. Coach here might just come close. This year has to be about experimentation and versatility. We have so many players that can play more than one position. I want to see what happens with Frye at the 3. I want to see what happens with Pryz and Oden on the floor at the same time. I want to see Blake at the 2 and Sergio running the pick and roll with Blake cutting off it too. I want to see what happens when Frye, Aldridge, Outlaw, Martell and Sergio are together. So my point is what begins the year is surely not what we will see in the middle of the year and maybe what we see in the middle is not what we see by the end of the year. However, the last 20 games should show how we approach the next year.

by lee3022 on Aug 6, 2007 9:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Johnny-come-lately

even though nobody will read this... here goes my rotation...

I would maintain the rotation where 8 guys get major minutes, with 2 players filling in with 5-10 minutes per game.

Starters:

PG - Blake

SG - Roy

SF - JJones

PF - Aldridge

C - Oden

Key reserves: Frye, Jack, Outlaw

Spot minutes: Webster, Przybilla

Fighting for PT: Sergio, Raef, McRob

IR: Green, Miles

Back court rotation: I forsee a heavy 3-man rotation with Blake, Roy, and Jack. Sergio is not ready to log significant minutes, and Blake soaks up any of his extra PT that he saw last season. I like this rotation because it gives us a continuous supply of good ball-handlers to distribute and play team offense. All 3 can play both positions and bring adequate defense. Webster plays spot minutes at the 2.

SF rotation: Jones brings the experience we need on the perimeter, spreading the floor and knocking down big shots. Outlaw will be a spark off the bench, bringing the bulk of the scoring to the 2nd unit. I can see the 48 minutes at SF being evenly distributed between Jones and Outlaw, with a few minutes being given to Martel.

Front court rotation: Oden, Aldridge, Frye. Man I love this. What an awesome front court rotation, with so much potential for the future. There is so much length, athleticism, tenacious D, and versatility. This is going to be the break out year for Aldridge. I strongly believe he can ascend to Jermaine O'neal status. Oden, without a doubt in my mind, is going to be the best big man in the league in 3-4 years... and he won't be too shabby until that day comes. Frye is a great fill in... an excellent compliment to Aldridge off the bench. Przybilla will get some love here, but probably not more than 10-12 minutes per game... which might be best for the fragile big man. We need him to spot Oden.

My apologies to Sergio Rodriguez and Martel Webster... I just don't see you guys playing much if this team stays healthy. However, you will get your chance.

by mcmillion on Aug 7, 2007 8:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

A Little Analysis

Looking at the SF spot, let's review what we know: 1) Travis was more effective coming off the bench than starting, and even told coaches he preferred coming in off the bench 2) Even with his improved conditioning, he'll always play limited minutes because of his asthma 3) Martell is more effective starting than coming off the bench (though not nearly effective enough) 4) Jones was a necessary precondition of getting Fernandez, they didn't trade for him because they particularly wanted him 5) Jones should be considered short term

Based on this data, it makes sense for the Blazers to see how Martell does with the starting job, with Travis coming off the bench behind him. If Jones can help the team a little with spot minutes, so much the better, but that's a bonus.
If Martell doesn't work out as a starter, they can look again at Travis and Jones.

Steve Blake is happy to be back in Portland, and the Blazers are pleased to have him back in the fold - he's a tireless worker and has a great, team oriented attitude. All that said, they didn't bring him in to start (surprise!) or to replace Jarrett Jack. They brought him back to take Sergio's minutes, because Sergio isn't steady enough to play in the NBA yet. Jarrett already beat Steve out for the starter's spot in 2005-2006, Steve is here to help out. Sergio needs to log a lot of minutes in the D league, hope they find a way to make that happen this year.

Oden is the number one draft pick, he's going to need to start and play as many minutes as they can keep him on the court. He's going to have foul problems, and this is going to limit his minutes. Joel's minutes may actually go up this year if he shows up ready to play (which means little, considering how ridiculously low they were last year).

Aldridge and Roy are going to need to carry the weight this year, and that'll extend to minutes. Because of injuries last year, neither played the full 82 game season. They could play a lot of minutes this year if things are going well and they have enough in the tank, this season will be an endurance test that because of those injuries, last season wasn't.

So, to put it in minutes form: