Expectations: Joel Przybilla

my prediction is that he'll get injured in practice.

By mid-season, Oden will be more comfortable with what he can and can't do, the coaches will be more comfortable with what Oden can and can't do, and Pryz will be traded.  At 4-5 we'll have a three man rotation of Oden, LMA, and Frye, with Raef and McRob filling in here and there, and covering garbage time.

Pryz will be packaged before the trading deadline with one of Martell/Outlaw/Jones and one of Jack/Sergio to get us a good quality SF.  That will free two roster spots, and if Freeland isn't getting time in Europe, he'll be brought over to take one of them, play development league, and be on standby in case of injury.

He's one of the few players on the team without potential. We know what we could get, the only question is whether we'll get it.

His likely biggest contribution to the team this year is to be the injury magnet, attracting those injuries that would befall Oden, LMA, and Frye if Joel is not on the team by using his karma to inhale the injury bug.

Hopefully, it's the 'vanilla gorilla' that bruises other teams instead of guy with bruised...manliness.

Oden is only 19 and may have an affinity for fouls so Pryz could be needed especially in the first 3rd of the season. And Oden having a practice partner like Pryz is a big plus as well.

If he's playing well, that helps portland a lot. And to be blunt, it would also increase his trade value.

I don't know if KP is entertaining the idea of trading him, but I'd guess that he's noticed that Joel is due 6.8 million in the year portland is planning on cap space.

There is a LOT he can bring to the table on this team.  He can be a strong locker room presence, a strong mentor for Oden and Aldridge, a second team defensive presence, and, as mentioned, a practice foil for Oden.

Here's a fact:  Joel is almost certainly in the top half of all centers in the league, though this probably speaks as much to the sorry state of centers right now as it does to Joel's effectiveness.  Going against him day after day in practice can be nothing but a good thing for Oden.

Joel will be back, either as a backup in Portland or as a starter elsewhere.  Book it.  (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

Does Joel start?  Not a chance.  This team just won the biggest lottery since LeBron came out, and they're not going to start their shiny new guy?  Oden is going to start, because he's also a good defensive center with more offensive capabilities than Prz.  Also, He's THE FUTURE.

"OK," you say, "He'll be the sixth man.  He'll lock it down while Oden is out of the game."  Nice try.  This team is about THE FUTURE, and another piece of the future arrived this summer in Channing Frye.  Again, good defensive big, and more than capable of carrying some load on offense.

Moreover, take a look at the personnel on this second unit--Jack (or Blake), Sergio, Martell, Outlaw (or James), Frye, Przybilla.  Five of those guys are guys who would thrive in an up-tempo game.  One is not.  And that one will probably be rolled out to guard the Shaqs and Yaos of the world when Oden racks up some fouls.  The rest of the time, though, I think he'll be used pretty sparingly.

I would not be surprised at all, if Oden, Aldridge, and Frye prove capable of carrying the load early on, to see Przybilla shipped out at some point in the season.  His contract and timeline don't fit the plan, and his game is more limited than the three players in front of him.  

Somewhere during the season one of the 3 bigs will get hurt and that will be when he can get his minutes.  

There are teams that need a back up center, but I do not see them offering any value for Joel so we are probably stuck with him this year (not a bad thing).  There will be a span of probably 10 to 15 games over the season that he will probably get 20 or more minutes due to matchups, injury or fouls and we will be glad we have him, but I do not see him as part of the primary rotation.

Although a few people here have hijacked the post pining for a "quality" small forward, and they see Joel as a means to an end, ummm..., well, uummm....ain't gonna happen.  I hope not too many brain cells were sacrificed coming up with that nugget...

Another mystery musing is the concept of Frye as a good defensive big.  ehhh?? Made me choke on my coffee.  

Last season, Magloire took over for Przy...This season, I'd expect Joel to take Maggot's role without the late season playing time gifts...Big stiff with limited offensive skills providing enforcement when needed...

I believe he would be a much more serviceable player if he got less blocks but more rebounds (preventing o-boards at the same time).  That would make him valuable against teams with strong offensive centers and a good defensive game changer off the bench.  He could even be a starter on a very defensively minded team (Larry Brown where are you?).

For now, he is a great back-up, and Oden will be limited in minutes for much of the season.  

What I would like from Joel is to be a lynchpin in a second unit that features our young players that we are looking to develop.  Rodriguez, Webster, Outlaw, Frye and Przybilla as an entire unit with an offense designed for those players.  Pick and roll with El Mago and Przybilla with Frye and Webster as shooters and Outlaw being active.  I want these guys to play a ton together until they all know what the others are thinking on the floor.  I think a bench mob would be afantastic development for this team, and I bet Nate doesn't do it.

C'mon give the guy the ball back every now and then on some of those picks!

For once, I find myself whole-heartedly disagreeing with the generally positive comments after an "Expectations" post.

First off, I need to pose a question to the well-educated reader base of Blazers Edge: What makes a player a defensive specialist? Thinking back, I remember Gary Payton being the first player I remember being called a "defensive specialist" in the sense that he was a SPECIAL defensive player. He locked up his man and threw away the key. But we all know, GP was no slouch on either end of the floor during his prime. Now, when I see "defensive specialist," I think "can't throw a basketball into a hula hoop."

Somewhere between here and there, "defensive specialist" became the term given to the players who were absolutely worthless on the offensive end. When did this happen? And more importantly, does anyone else feel this way? It's kind of like the new "Kobe Stopper" for those that remember the Reuben Patterson era.

This all gets back to the point of my expectations for Joel Pryzbilla, seriously, it does. After getting "kicked in the Manbacks" (or having his nuts cracked), Joel flat-out lost his intensity on the defensive end. He no longer elevated for blocks, he would hesitate on rotations, and he would allow opposing players (even relative slouches like Samuel Dalembert and Chris Wilcox) to gain position extremely low on the block which is essentially the worst possible scenario for a low-post defender. Face it, if Joel doesn't bring 200% on the defensive end, he's not worth having on the floor because as previously stated, he's about as worthless as you can get on the offensive side.

Then, after having an extremely disappointing season, the Blazers land the #1 pick and the greatest center prospect since Dwight Howard. How does this effect Joel? He's already got to be down on himself after last season, and now the light at the end of the tunnel is being a backup for a rookie- who is younger, more agile, more athletic, and eventually, will be 10,000% more effective on the offensive end.

Still, I find myself thinking Joel will succeed (in a limited role). We knew we had the best back-up center in the league when we signed Pryzbilla to that expensive contract. It was no secret. But now, Joel will actually be a backup center. He'll be able to come off the bench for about 15-20 minutes per game, play with energy, and most likely, pad his stats by playing against lower quality competition (the opposing team's second line). Sergio should be able to get Pryzbilla some cheap points, if they play together, because Joel's one strength on the offensive end is setting the initial high screen in the pick-and-roll. He'll also be able to grab some cheap rebounds, both on the offensive and defensive end, because he'll be fresh.

But how important is it to have "the best (or one of the best) backup centers in the NBA"? Nazr Mohammed is an adequate backup for the Pistons, and he rarely plays. Who backs up Tim Duncan or Amare Stoutemire? If Greg Oden is who we think he is, then Pryzbilla's impact on the general well-being of the team (in the future) will be very limited. For next season, he'll have the important role of relieving Oden when he's either tired or in foul trouble (which probably isn't a great role considering Pryzbilla averages 2.9 fouls in 16 minutes) but in long term playoff scenarios, Pryzbilla will find himself glued to the bench.

More than anything, I hope Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Channing Frye all use Pryzbilla as a "defensive specialist" in practice, so that they all improve their respective offensive arsenals. But I don't know how Joel will react to being the team's practice test dummy.

He should be putting up 300 jump hooks from each side and 500 10 foot jumpers every day. He's only what, 25? Joel still fits the timeline here and can be solid with the second unit if he brings the toughness/blocks from '05-'06 and develops a three shot arsenal so as not to be a complete liability on O (He got the two hand slam down). He rallies for 7pts, 7brds, and 2 blocks this year if things go well.  A no show without cause? Then he should be re-located.

Joel will be way, way down in the rotation unless there are lots of other DNPM-CI decisions made with other players. And the CIs not only include Coach's Indifference, but also Coach's Intolerance (of rookie or rookie-like mistakes); Coach's Incompetence (failing to be a good "teaching coach"); and Coach's Impatience (not letting players play through mistakes).

Oden should start and play as much as possible and Nate should play (and tolerate mistakes by) the other young players rather than playing veterans who might make fewer mistakes. (I think he overplayed Udoka, Magloire, Randolf, and even Roy rather than having other players develop their game on the floor).

If, indeed, the Blazers go with the full bore youth movement, I think Pryzbilla will see very little time on the floor.  (Even if Oden is a fouling machine, Pryzbilla won't get much time as he gets fouls at a prodigious rate.)

While I like Joel's work ethic, I think coming up with "expectations" is relatively pointless since the various DNPM-CI factors will dictate the fate (and expectations) for all the players, but especially for those deep in the rotation.

I realize that the circumstances were different, but I think it's illustrative to consider how Nate handled Martell in '05.

Despite the folks clamoring to see Martell play, Nate continually stated that he "just wanted him to enjoy himself out there."  He repeatedly explained that he didn't want Martell to be under a lot of pressure to produce - especially given the "unrealistic" expectations he faced.  He kept him out of pretty much everything short of complete blowouts.  Some of that, of course, is because Martell was obviously not ready for the NBA game.  But a lot of it was Nate wanting to maintain Martell's confidence as an aid to his future development.  After all, the team sucked, and Martell could have gained a lot of experience  getting whooped by NBA starters.

Despite the fact that Greg is older, been under much greater public scrutiny and is generally more NBA-ready than Martell, I still think you can expect Nate to be leery of just throwing Greg out on the floor as a starter and running him for long minutes.

To get to the point, I'm sure everyone goes into camp with a shot at winning a starting spot and place in the rotation.  But, I suspect that Greg will be under a little more scrutiny and expected to show a little bit more than an equivalent veteran player.  That could be enough of an edge to warrant playing Joel a lot more than we saw last season.  

I don't know if it wins him a starting spot, but here's what it boils down to: if Greg and Joel look equally capable of contributing (NOW, not even two weeks into the future) at the end of training camp, Joel gets the nod because Nate wants to lower the expectations on Greg.

And I sincerely hope that Greg learns to set picks as well as Joel.  That'll create about 5 million bucks worth of inducement for a top-notch free agent down the road.

-t