Expectations: Brandon Roy
by Dave on Aug 16, 2007 3:05 AM PDT
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PrintToday we look at the third leg of our Big Three, Mr. Brandon Roy. Brandon's Rookie of the Year season last year needs little recounting here. 16.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4 assists, great attitude, incredible charisma, team leader...you know all about him. And who's to blame Blazer fans if they're expecting this season to be even better?
But I don't think it will be. At least not much.
I know a fair percentage of you are going to scream bloody murder about that right out of the gate, but look...it can happen. Everybody who's ever had a promising rookie thinks the same thing: this year he scored in the teens, next year it will be the twenties, then he's the next LeBron and we're winning championships! Sometimes that happens (see also: Dwyane Wade). Many times it doesn't (see also: Damon Stoudamire, Channing Frye, et al). And please don't bother titling a comment "Brandon is not at all like Damon!" I know they're different players. That doesn't invalidate the point that second-year improvement doesn't always happen. Toronto fans would have sworn to you up and down after Damon's rookie year that he was automatically the Next Big Thang. Blazer fans will swear up and down that Roy is automatically the Next Big Thang. I hope Roy does become a big thing, but it's not automatic and I think he's going to have a hard time this year. Take some deep breaths into a paper bag for a minute and at least check out why.
First of all, Brandon enters the season with bigger expectations as far as the fans go. Last year was all about seeing how good he could be and he exceeded every reasonable expectation laid on him. The delicious sauce on the meatloaf was his wonderful attitude at a time when the team was still somewhat defined by less that wonderful folks. This year people expect him to be great. Last year if he hit one out of four game winners people would have sung his praises. This year they'll wonder what's wrong with him. Last year when he scored 16 everybody sat up and took notice. By the time January rolls around a fair amount of people are going to be wondering if he can bump it to 20 and if not, why not? In short, as far as fan expectations, he's starting at a much higher bar. If he just goes out and does the same thing people are going to begin to shrug. Personally I will still consider that a good year but many won't. Plus his attitude, while still great, isn't going to bring as many brownie points this year because pretty much everybody is a good guy.
Brandon is also going to be receiving the lion's share of attention from defenders. He won't sneak up on anybody. The opponent's best small defender is going to be in his jock from the opening tip. People are going to reason that if they can keep the ball out of his hands or stall the ball when it's in his hands we're stuck with mediocre point guards and small forwards trying to generate offense, probably against the clock. What's more they're going to absolutely PACK the lane on defense. Much of that is out of respect for our big guys but a nifty secondary effect is going to be the clogging of Brandon's driving lanes. If they can't stop him entirely they'll settle for making him a jump shooter. I wouldn't be surprised if many times the defense looked like a squished together box and one from college, with the one watching Brandon. He's going to have to work very hard for his points.
There's also going to be a lot more on Brandon's mind this year. Last year he was kind of a leader but we still had veterans (OK. Zach) to fill that role or at least take the pressure off. This year he's going to be THE leader in the locker room and on the court. Since we're likely to go through our share of growing pains, including quite a few losses, he's going to have to tap his mental and emotional reserves big time. And really, who really knows if he knows how to walk a team through sustained losing if it comes to that? Either way it's a lot to have on your plate and when young guys--even great young guys like we have--end up with a lot on their plate their play often stalls.
A corollary to that last point: Brandon is a team player, not an individual superstar. He's not in the LeBron mold. Last year's Rookie-Sophomore game wasn't a fluke. That's his style. Brandon needs the team to click in order to click himself. Granted he's the instigator of the clicking most nights--the leader as we said--but the fact remains that if the team doesn't ignite he'll have a hard time showing his best stuff. With the team so young and not used to playing together there are going to be a number of nights when they just won't get it. In fact I expect we'll see a few complete fall-aparts before the season is through. That's going to hurt Brandon in the long run, much the way a landlubber crew will hamper a ship's captain no matter how good the orders he's giving.
Finally, Brandon has still not been tested physically with an 82-game NBA schedule. He was injured for more than a third of the season last year. He's going to be playing a ton of minutes this year and fatigue is going to become an issue at some point.
I absolutely don't expect Brandon to fall apart or regress. I don't expect we'll see anything besides the confident, engaging guy we've come to know and love. But I don't expect an exponential leap in production either. I think that will have to wait for his third or fourth year. I'd guess he'd be right around 16-17 points again, maybe with slightly fewer rebounds and hopefully with slightly more assists. To me that would be a fine year for him again. If he gets near 20 points a game it'll mean three things:
--The team is in a groove sooner than expected.
--They're running more.
--He's really developed an outside shot.
I hope that we'll see continued improvement in Brandon's defensive awareness and effort this season. I hope he continues to work for good shots and does his usual sterling job of being a good influence on the team. If he can give me those things I'm more than willing to work through some post-rookie bumps with him, knowing that it's all going to come good in the end.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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I think you nailed it right on
He will be the main focus of defensive sets, and will find it harder to score out of the offense. We'll run a little more, so he'll get more on the break. I'm think 14 ppg.
Because we'll move the ball more, and run more, I think he'll get over 5 assists, and because we'll run more he'll pick up more offensive rebounds, but a few less on the defensive end because Oden and LMA will clean most of those. I'm thinking right at 5 per game.
So that makes 14/5 and 5.5 assists.
I expect his defense to be improved.
I expect him to be the first option at the end of games, even if LMA averages more points per game, and to make a good percentage of clutch shots.
I don't know that this will have big effect on #s,
High Expectations...
I will disagree to a bit about Roy's "defender". Having the opponent's best small defender on him won't be new next year....they were on him last season. Not every team has a bowen, so I really don't expect that to be a factor compare to last year
Too pessimistic
You point out that he'll be receiving the attentions of the other team's best small defender. Did he not all last year as a rookie? You also said he is "going to be receiving the lion's share of attention from defenders", but in your previous post on Aldridge you argued he'd be the focal point of the offense and be getting double teamed. Considering it is highly unlikely Oden will be allowed to operate one-on-one with the ball in his hand against the many weak centers in the L, and you can see where this goes.. you can't double team everybody!
How much can defenses afford to key in on him with Aldridge and Oden down low. If Aldridge and Oden are consistently drawing 3 defenders between the two of them, no team can afford to give too much attention to Roy. If they do, you've got both Blake and, say, Webster waiting wide open at the 3 point line. I would argue Roy is going to see nothing but one-on-one defenses all year long unless he is regularly scoring in the 30s (which isn't going to happen).
I also think you're overstating the amount of pressure Roy will be under to be a leader. If he is in fact a natural leader, he should be fine. No one is expecting anything of them this year, and the entire team is likely to be coddled by fans and local media alike. Quite frankly, if he buckled under the absolute non-pressure of this season he is not the guy most of us think he is.
agreed
The biggest thing I disagree with in Dave's post is the pressure Roy will feel. I think getting Oden will take tons of the attention off Roy. You know everyone is going to be dissecting Odens every move and that will work in Roy's favor. I think you might even see Roy do something strange to try and take some of the attention away from Oden, for the big fella's sake.
Bottom line is that Roy is the man and I dont need to see giant stats to now how important he is to this team, he will do just fine if he is healthy.
That is pretty much what I meant to say
One of the main questions for this team this year will be, "Who is that third offensive option and how effective will he be?"
--Dave
Fatty
My guess is more likely Trout than Oden - at least through the first half of the year. Oden is promising but is going to have a lot of 'school of hard fouls' education up to the All-Star weekend (and most likely afterwards, too).
My stupid emotions
Totally Agree
by Clint on Aug 16, 2007 7:49 AM PDT reply actions
Of all the players I've seen
He's going to get more shots...
quibbles
by barryj on Aug 16, 2007 8:17 AM PDT reply actions
His Work Ethic Will Make Him Better
While Brandon is never likely to be one of the 50 greats of all time, their stats are fairly similar. Pippen only averaged 20 points or more in four out of his seventeen-year career. Roy needs to step it up on the defensive end of the court and I think the offense will follow.
With Ray Allen moving to the East, he leaves an all star void as the backup SG in the West. The next of kin is likely Mike Miller or Leandro Barbosa. Roy's game and his popularity should help him battle for that spot and I think he is an all star inside of three years.
The only potential problem I can see is if he puts too much pressure on himself as the emotional and court leader of this team.
brandon is fundamentally sound
what's to expect
Interchangeble glue?
But I think I know what you mean: the man is a W I N N E R. And he knows how to make his teammates better.
Last few years, we would talk about Outlaw's amazing atheleticism, Telfair's quickness, and Webster's graceful shot; and hope that these guys would dial in some consistancy (still doing that song and dance with the Spanish PG).
We don't need to hope with Roy.
I had to stop on that one also.
"Bloody Murder!"
"Brandon is a team player, not an individual superstar. He's not in the LeBron mold"
"We'll run a little more, so he'll get more on the break."
"I expect him to be the first option at the end of games, even if LMA averages more points per game, and to make a good percentage of clutch shots."
"I expect Brandon to shoot like rain into the ocean this year."
"I'll be okay if he doesn't score a ton of points, but I am expecting even more of the sort of game changing he did last year. Clutch shooting, big drives, and timely passes are the things that have already come to define Brandon's game for me."
"no one else actually interacts with their defender in order to decide which move to make and then makes the correct one ..... I've seen him score with 3 guys in the lane, faking out all three of them one after another and going up and under for a layin. And then I discovered that he had a really good outside shot last year, so I wouldn't be surprised if it was great this year."
Then a couple of statements which I don't necessarily align myself with:
"Considering it is highly unlikely Oden will be allowed to operate one-on-one with the ball in his hand against the many weak centers in the L, and you can see where this goes.. you can't double team everybody!" I know this is a popular thought but I don't expect Oden to be good enough offensively this year to be double teamed much.
" ... if he was selected by much better team than the Blazers he may have spent a lot of his rookie season on the bench." I don't think that would have happened at all. He was just too polished and talented for that to have happened.
"Ok, I just can't help myself. I have to put in my two bits worth too. Actually they are Kevin Pritchard's two bits worth and not mine. When Roy suited up to practice with the team in Vegas, K.P. said he immediately became the best player on the floor (remember, Aldridge and Oden were on that same floor). Then when being interviewed (by a national media guy or blogger as I recall) the interviewer asked what was the best draft choice you've ever made. His response: Brandon Roy.
Like many others, I too am expecting some pretty good things from Aldridge this year but Brandon I think will continue to be our best player. He just brings so much to the table. He's our shinning star.
Balanced attack
If Brandon were to average 26 points per game that would mean he would be playing a ton of minutes or it would mean the team is needing him to compensate for others. I'm hoping for the boxscores with six or seven players consistently scoring in double figures. Leave the Kobe and Lebron one-man shows to the other teams.
Defensively is where I hope Brandon makes his big improvements next season. I'm thinking maybe Zach made it hard for everyone else to get motivated about stopping other teams last year. Being on the wrong end of four on five can't be easy. Perhaps along with the expected upgrade to the interior will come a corresponding enthusiasm for locking down the perimeter as well.
Compleat Player?
We are young again. We were porous last year. Rookies and sophomores played serious minutes. At times, even when they played well, the refs didn't give them the benefit of a non-call.
This year -- remember it's a rebuilding year, putting together new and young pieces, another shake-up in the starting line-up -- it actually gets worse.
That is scary. But Nate knows the answer. And the answer is defense. With Zach gone, Nate will start to work on installing the basics of defense and defensive rebounding at the NBA level.
This does NOT mean that we are in for a boring, half-court slog (where, frankly, we still don't have the outside shooters to compete night-in and night-out).
No, with good D and defensive rebounding, the Blazers can use their youth, speed, and athleticism to get out on the break!
You work on the complete game with young players, but as far as building these Blazers into team of the future, this year it starts on the defensive end.
This season, Nate will challenge Roy to show NBA-level leadership in team defense and superior skills as a one-on-one defender. Roy's overall game makes him a starter as long as he is under contract. This year, we see whether Brandon will take his game to that next level.
Who does Roy compare too?
It's really hard to tell because Roy, quite literally, does EVERYTHING for the Blazers. He smiles pretty, he passes, he scores, and he's extremely effective at grabbing loose rebounds.
One thing I would like to bring up regarding Brandon Roy's expectations for the upcoming season, is how he will be treated by the referees. Last year, it pained me to watch as Roy went head first into a pile of defenders, got bounced around, held, grabbed, and hacked, and then somehow put up a miracle shot. Will he finally be able to draw a foul or two? I think it was the 76ers game when Brandon Roy was fouled 3 times on the final shot and didn't receive one call... I think, if Roy finally gets a little love from the stripes, he's a lock for 17-20 points per game, 4-5 assists, and 4 rebounds.
If Aldridge can make a season out of his 10-15 foot jumper, Roy's totals will increase dramatically, because Aldridge will open up the floor a bit with his mid-range game...
by Champs2009 on Aug 16, 2007 9:29 AM PDT reply actions
He compares to
A winner, clutch player on a championship team who did everything well. Didn't have to score all the points, but could have scored a lot more if needed. Made everyone better.
We can hope that winning ROY
What is going to be interesting is whether the "star" treatment might change due to the current scandel.
Brandon will be better
Lets recap:
Feb 17.2ppg, .453fg
Mar 18.4ppg, .466fg
Apr 21.2ppg, .526fg
As you can see, as he became healthier, better conditioned, and more of a focal point (no Zach the last part of the year), his numbers really improved.
Your point about injuries is the only one I'm worried about, if he stays healthy he's gonna have a very good year. One thing about Brandon is he has improved every year since his freshman year at UW. He works hard and he's an intellegent guy. He's had a year to adjust to the NBA and see where he can butter his bread, I a bet you he is finely tuning those skills this offseason.
Your point about the Rookie/Soph game is invalid, and I'll tell you why. Brandon does not play well in glorified Street ball game without organization. He would have to be selfish to do well in that atmosphere, that's just not him.
Anyway, if he stays healthy this is what I expect:
20ppg, 4.5apg, 4.0rpg. .470fg, .400 3pfg.
Along with the usual clutch plays. Last year was no fluke, at UW he hit many big time shots at the end of games. I remember the Arizona game on New years eve when he pulled three at the end of regulation to tie it, then did the same thing in overtime.
The guy is big time, he'll miss the All-Star game this year, but as LA and GO improve and the team improves, I bet he'll get there 6 or 7 times.
This is what I say too
(Sometimes a biggish good perimeter defender covered Zach to mess him up (plus he isn't that big), but 99% of the time they guarded Roy)
He improved in every aspect of his game as the year went on, ESPECIALLY shooting. Like Jack Burton shows, his stats went up significantly each month with a nice jump after Z-Bo was hurt, and that doesn't show how nice his 3 point shot was going. He started off the year 3 for 26. It was several games in (and after he came back from his injury the first time) before he hit his first NBA three... and then he was extremely solid all year, ending with a more-than-decent .377%; shooting better than "shooters" such as Bargnani (.373) or Foye (.368) (and eons better than Wade's career .250 clip, for example).
Best way to show his improved 3 point shooting is with numbers: he started off a dismal 3 for 26. The rest of the season he made 52 of 120 threes, for a VERY respectable (if not 3 point Shootout worthy) .433! Like with all of his numbers, he improved greatly as the season went on.
He played less games, helping him not hit a rookie wall, but his level of improvement and how he handled a bigger role on and off the court shows to me that a nice improvement numbers wise isn't out of the question.
I understand why Dave might wanna temper expectations for key players this year; he's as much a spokesman for the team as any "official", and with our whirlwind summer people might be expecting too much too soon... but while our record might take time to get where we wanna be, Roy is the last thing we should worry about.
Roy will lead the team in scoring if that is what's best for the team. If Aldridge is as ready as we all think he is, he has the ability to score 20+, but Roy has already proven he can do it and I think it's more likely his versatile scoring attack will be what makes it easier for Oden and Aldridge to score.
My only hope is that Roy has improved his post up game against similar sized defenders, and that our shooters are better shooters this year. With Blake, Webster, and Jones, I hope the floor is stretched enough to allow Roy a LITTLE wiggle room... but he showed he doesn't need that much. With 3 guys covering Z-Bo in the middle, Roy-Bot mapped out paths to the basket goodish enough.
Point is, I ain't never gonna worry about Roy.
And Damon improved his 2nd year. He sucked every year after that.
I know you're not saying Roy will regress, or even that he won't improve... just his numbers might not reflect it. I say one way or another, either in personal numbers or overall record, Roy's improvements will be shown.
Mortimer
nice post
fatty's right
this year his points will be the same or down, his rebounds and assists will be up as he creeps towards averaging a triple double.
last and only(?) to do that was the big O.
also his defense will improve, ala clyde frazier.
this is his team, he is the man
walt frazier
Blasphemy!!!
I think Roy will be better...
In a way Roy reminds me most of Steve Smith. Not the quickest or most athletic, but lots of skills, lots of brains and quite a bit of sneaky.
by ken @ Blazer's Edge on Aug 16, 2007 10:58 AM PDT reply actions
Stats Schmats!
The things I learn from Blazers Edge.
I'm not worried about Roy's offense.
by EnglandDan on Aug 16, 2007 12:46 PM PDT reply actions
Roys defense
On Roy
Roy: 18.1PPG / 4.7APG / 4.1RPG / 1.5 STL / 38% 3pt FG% / 45.5% FG%
These numbers might even be a bit low on assists and FG% but I'm expecting him to take more shots this year to open up the middle.
Go On The Record.
(And I have not been fired or posting while at work. I had to take two days off for the Ted Nugent concert. You know you are old when you need two days off for Teddy!)
Roy's strength
Part of what makes that possible is that Roy is never in a hurry. Even in his first regular season game, he was calm and clutch (how many rookies can you say THAT about?). But another factor is Roy's STRENGTH. I've seldom seen defenders just bounce off of a guard like they do with Roy. They resemble pins bouncing off a bowling ball.
Will Roy suffer a sophomore slump? I understand Dave's concerns, but I don't see that Roy is suddenly going to be overwhelmed by defensive pressure. True, the dump-it-into-Zach option is gone. But the improved Aldridge (who was damn good LAST season) will draw his own share of double-teams. And Blake's savvy play at the point will be a steadying influence. Finally, Oden will be down low to keep bigs honest and to grab offensive rebounds for additional possessions.
One other thing: Roy suffered greatly from the rookie no-call syndrome last year. Time and time again, he got hammered but got no call. Now, as an established up and coming star on an up and coming team, Roy should get some of those calls. That alone will help prevent a sophomore slump.
roy's stats for 08
6.dimes
1.5-steals
5.5-rebs
48%-fg
80%-ft
and to you kobe stoppa you
can book it!!!roy is the man
period...walt frazier is a
perfect comparison brilliant.
Realism =/= Pessimism
Roy's Feb-to-April numbers
February:
17.2ppg, 4.9apg, 3.4rpg, 1spg, 39% 3fg%, 45.3% fg%
March:
18.4ppg, 4.8apg, 5.4rpg, 1.2spg, 40% 3fg%, 46.5% fg%
April:
21.2ppg, 4.2apg, 4.4rpg, .6spg, .57% 3fg%, 52.5% fg%
He got more accurate from the field and from 3 in each month. His APG held at around 4, and I assume with a more uptempo/sharing offense that number will go up again this year. He became a better rebounder as the year went on as well.
There are players who we need to take the 'wait-and-see' approach with. Brandon Roy is simply not one of them.
I expect his numbers to shoot up with Randolph gone. It's not like ZBo was flipping it out to him and providing him with all these open shots. Roy had to do the majority of the legwork for his production.
I would rather have modest expectations
Looking at Neal's comments in a later Dave posting, there is enough ammunition to think that many of us are possibly under valuing Oden's impact. I also lean toward the argument that Roy's progression the last three months of the season should be a pretty good indicator of how he will perform this year, which means he could easily be pushing 20 a game. I'm also in the camp that thinks Aldridge will take off this year and end up being included as one of the brightest young stars in the league. If even one of these three happens, Portland wins a few more games. Should two occur, we have a real shot at 40+ wins and maybe even a playoff spot.
But I am going to set the bar at improved team play, at least incremental improvement in individual players and about 6 - 8 wins above last year. Then I can get excited as hell when they jell the second half of the season and make the playoffs.
Something not
right you are...
Any guesses?
by headwound on Aug 16, 2007 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
adrian dantley
his answer: i'm saving my knees.
He does use his jumping ability.
20 and 5
I want Brandon Roy to run the team
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