We are young and people will take advantage of that fact. Since this will be a learning year in many ways a lot can go "wrong". I would say the worst barring any injuries would be 1-2 spots off making the playoffs.

Best...

We ARE young and we will take advantage of that fact. We can run the court faster and burn people on the fast break. A little throwback to the 77 season. Oden will be the fastbreak quarterback and LMA will be his receiver. I would put us at 4th seed tops in the playoff bracket. Where we go from there, second and maybe... big maybe depending on the bracket matchups... conf finals. There is too much between the Suns, Spurs, and Warriors for us to top that this year.

But you never know.

Worst (with no injuries): finish 12th and Roy, Oden, and Aldridge fail to meet expectations, instead making dozens of typical rookie/sophomore mistakes.

Even if we don't get first in the NW, SECOND best case scenario is playoffs at all... which I do think will happen.  We can get the 7th or 8th seed, but it won't be easy.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Playoff talk gets replaced with "Don't worry we are just young" talk, injuries start to accumulate, and debating about which guy we'll take with our lottery pick is more fun than worrying about the 30 remaining games.  We won't be mathematically out of it, but for all intents and purposes we'll STILL be looking a few years down the road and not enjoying the NOW.

I do not think this will happen.  But if we win mid-30's, it could be a slight disappointment.  I know this next season is still a year for development and growth, but I think we got enough (young) talent to reach the playoffs.

My "AT LEAST" Case Scenario Where I'll Still Be Happy With the Season:  If we do NOT make the playoffs, I'll be more okay with it if we are in the race down to the last 3 games.  I know we won't do too much damage if we make the playoffs, but I want our young guys to play in games that really "Matter".  I love the draft and like imagining lottery picks, but with the guys we got now and cap space coming up for free agency, all I wanna focus on is who we got and seeing them playing for SOMETHING more than development and learning the game.

Obviously, development and learning can happen concurrently with the playoff chase.  And that's what I want to happen at the very least.

PERSONAL "Best Case" WANTS: Martell to average double digits and shoot 40%+ from the 3 point line-- but more importantly show that he has potential to be a real SCORER and not just a shooter ala Steve Kerr.  I want him to be a strong candidate for starting small forward OR a high scoring 6th man.  

Sergio show he can run a half court offense and if he can't for the fans to go easy on him.  I have a feeling he might get the "Webster" treatment from the impatient fans if he doesn't show leaps and bounds of improve-ness in his game.

Aldridge and Roy and Oden all involved in all star weekend.  Rookie game is a lock for all three, but I hope our improved record gets Roy or Aldridge invited to the most important event of the year: The Allstar Game!

Oden and Aldridge to play well together and each average a double double and 3 blocks.  I suspect Aldridge will score more and Oden will rebound more.  They hopefully will show themselves to be THE dominant duo of the next 10 years.

If we don't bring any of our Euros over, the best case scenario is that they don't get locked into long contracts with insane buyouts.  All of them are players I want to see in Blazer uniforms some day...

BEST CASE RECORD: 47 wins 35 losses, 1st in NW
WORST CASE RECORDISIMO: 32 wins 50 losses, 3rd in NW

I reserve the right to change my predictions and hopes when the season starts.

Mortimer

SA, Dallas, Pho, Utah will all be in.

Denver and Houston are the next tier but they could fall off pretty easily.

GS is close, but I'm not convinced they are as good as everyone thinks.  I think they caught lightning in a bottle last year against Dallas.

Then there's Minne and the LA teams.

I think at worst Portland falls behind all but one of the above (10th) and just misses the playoffs.

I don't think Portland is ready yet to knock off any of the top four, but if they progress rapidly I could see them being better than the likes of Houston or Denver if those teams falter or run into injuries or other issues - which their stars seem to frequently.  And the rest of those other crummy third tier teams.

1st tier (definites): Dal, Phoe, SanAn, Utah, Houston. Even if we play out of our minds I think we finish behind these teams. They have too many good veterans, and all are well coached. We've got the talent, but not the experience to hang with this group.

2nd tier (probables): NO, Denver, Lakers. I live in Colorado, so I'm exposed to the Nugs quite a bit, and I'm just not impressed. They just don't play well together, and don't play defense at all. They could easily be just as bad as they are good, especially if they pass on Steve Blake. Same for the Lake Show. They just have too much uncertainty and turmoil on their team. When the times get tough this season, they're going to implode, but they still get the nod because of Kobe. New Orleans on the other hand, has been knocking on the door. With another year under Paul's belt and a healthy Peja, I think they're the most consistent team in the West outside the top 5. Injuries could easily derail them again, though.

3rd tier (hopefuls): G.S., Clippers, Portland. Golden State obviously came on at the end of last year, but they've had some changes and might not have Donnie back at the healm, so they've got some uncertainty heading into the season. Overall I like what they've done, but it might be a year before they can put it back together. The Clippers are an anomaly. The key players are getting older, and their locker room will likely remain unstable. Not to mention, Dunleavy has been there a few years now, and this is about the time that he starts rubbing his players the wrong way. We've seen it before in L.A. and Portland. But they've got good players and could overcome all that.

4th tier (better luck next year): Minny, Sacto, Seattle, Memphis. These teams simply will not be very good ... again. Is an explanation really necessary?

Overall, as noted, I see us landing in the third tier. I think the biggest thing we have going for us is our locker room camaraderie. By all accounts we now have GREAT guys in our locker room, and we should be able to stick together through the hard times. I think that's what gives us a leg up on the Clippers, and what could possible catapult us ahead of the Warriors, Lakers, and Nuggets. We could conceivably finish ahead of the Hornets, but I think realistically our ceiling is 7th in the West and a first round series against Phoenix or San Antonio. Whoopee. More likely we finish 9th, 10th, or 11th, but no lower. We've got the talent to finish higher, but our experience at this point will probably still hold us back. That's okay, though. I wouldn't mind winning the lottery again ... :).

Best: Championship baby! Why not? (Don't answer that!) Every team in the league is one or two key injuries away from implosion. Nobody's invincible in the NBA. See Mavericks, Dallas. See also Pistons, Detroit.

Worst: O.J. Mayo baby!

Best case: Oden will be the surprise that LMA was last year, there will be no injuries or illnesses that will bench the top 8 players for more than two games at a time, and we will actually make it to round two.  We'll even win games from the teams that are below .500 next year. :-)

Worst case: We'll only win 5 more games than last year.  (Hey, I said I was being a cockeyed optimist!)  

Teams that will in all likelihood finish ahead of us: Utah, Houston, Denver

Teams that may or may not finish ahead of us: Golden State, New Orleans, LA Lakers, LA Clippers

Teams that probobly won't finish ahead of us: Memphis, Seattle, Sacramento, Minnesota

My best case scenario would be finishing ahead of everyone in those last two groups and having injuries to other teams vaulting us ahead of 1-2 teams in the 2nd group.  So, I'll say a best case scenario of 5th place.

My worst case scenario would be lots of injuries, surprising play by some of the middling teams and Oden having a tough rookie year. I could see 1-2 of the teams in my last group finishing ahead of us.  I'll say a worst case scenario of 12th place.

My prediction: Golden State and New Orleans just edge us out for the final two playoff spots.  We finish 9th.

Best case: 10-12 win improvement.
Worst case: same record as last year.
Best guess: 6 win improvement.

Last year we won 32 so at the high end that's 44 and I'm going to go with the best guess or 38 wins for a range.

Based on last years standings, that would put us at the 7th seed down to 11th in the conference.

Best case, i'm going to go with 8th.  I'd predicted 45 wins for this year before all the changes.  I think my prediction is going to be 40-42 now.  With that you're going to get about 8th.

Worse case will land us 3 games back from a play-off spot.

We're a young team that will be producing a lot of turnovers.  I hear "fast paced" but we do not have the familiarity with each other, a point guard with experience to run it well, and so i expect a HUGE turnover ratio if we go that route.

I think we'll capitalize on fast break situations, but i think a half court game will help keep us focused and in control.  I think young teams have a weakness of playing out of control and if we can limit that, but still take advantage of fast opportunities, we'll greatly help ourselves.

I have a hard time judging Oden.  I think he'll have a more difficult time than a lot of people think.  He'll be learning during the first half of the year, and then run into the rookie wall sometime after the all star game.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Frye started this year and Oden stayed out of foul trouble by coming off the bench.  Ref's will be hard on him this year to set the tone in years to follow.

Aldridge will be a beast.  He will replace Zach and help improve us greatly, but i think he might run into a wall too.

Roy will be a VERY well rounded player and improve a bit on what he's done.

JJ will struggle a little with this new team, but i think he'll get it after a month or two and start to click.

We're VERY weak at SF and back-up guard positions.  We're going to be hurt badly here.

I predict we'll win a lot of games early by playing hard, but we'll fade at the end of the year as other teams turn up the heat, and we become tired from working so hard at the beginning.  (there's a reason the winners don't come out hard at the beginning of the year.)

I think we can get up to 21-28 wins at the beginning of the season.  I think we'll get 14-18
 wins for the second half of the season.   Range of 35 (yikes) to 46.  That drops us at an average of about 40 wins.  I think 40 will be my official guess and that puts us just shy of the play-offs.

My guess will change if we can strengthen up at SF, or Travis/Webster show up in the preseason.

I may be underating the effect of two strong post players and a deep post bench.  It'll be exciting to find out!

Oden.  Yes, he is a franchise center, but it will take him a year to get good his NBA game on.

Youth.  We are getting younger and like Oden it will take these talented youngsters time to find their NBA games.

Chemistry. It also takes them time to become something together.

The future.  Several of Portland's prospects are still developing in minor leagues around the globe.

I am also uncomfortable with the point, and with our outside shooting.

Udoka.  We could lose more games without a reliable 3.  We need a veteran presence in the starting lineup.  Even if he is a 7-year CBA vet, Udoka displayed veteran leadership.

Each one of these factors spells more losses.

On the other side, we have:

Talent.  Talent loses to experience.  How fast can we develop these players' games, and gel them into a playoff franchise?  I am guessing '09.  

Experience.  Aldridge and ROY are better.  But this core of one frontcourt and one backcourt player is not enough.

35 wins this season.  
42 and fail to make the playoffs in '08-'09.
Playoffs thereafter as long as Allen pays the tab.

I gotta admit, it would be nice to have a group of players I can root for year after year. Let's not go Trader Bob crazy every year.

If they finish lower than 12 I think it will be because key players will miss long stretches of games.

An optimistic assessment is an improvement similar to last year - 9 to 11 additional victories.  41 to 43 wins.

A best case scenario has us improving by 12 - 15 victories - 44 to 47 wins

A realistic assessment is continued improvement, but not double digit - say 6 - 8 games - 38 to 40 wins.

A worst case scenario has Portland improving little - just a couple of wins improvement, or even regressing a little.  This assumes Roy misses some significant time, Joel does not come back fully healthy and none of young guys - Jack, Outlaw, Webster, Rodreguiz, show any improvement.

I'll predict 40 wins, maybe 42.  I don't think that puts them in the playoffs.