The Zach Question: A View From Chicago

by Dave on Jun 4, 2007 12:28 AM PDT in News Comment 44 comments

One of the advantages of belonging to a network like SportsBlog Nation is you get to interact with people from other cities following other teams. I was chatting about all the smoke surrounding the Zach-to-Chicago rumors with Matt from Blog-A-Bull over the weekend.

My basic premise was this: People on his site dream about getting Zach for Nocioni and junk (or worse) because "Portland wants to get rid of him". This makes us gasp and mutter about their idiocy. Sometimes people in Portland dream about Zach for Deng and the #9 plus salaries because "Chicago really needs a post player" (as if Zach were the only--or even the best--option). This makes Chicago fans gasp and mutter about our idiocy. As is typical with trades we all want to believe every piece of evidence that confirms our strength and none which confirm our weakness. So--apart from us all being idiots in each others' eyes--what is real here? What would a Zach/Chicago trade look like from their point of view?

Here are some of Matt's thoughts...

I think the idea of getting Zach Randolph is polarizing without even considering what the Bulls would give in a trade. Just knowing that he'll be making max money (albeit less than KG or Jermaine O'Neal) for the next 5 seasons is a heavy risk for the team to take on. So even if the deal was a complete robbery it still may not help the team.

I actually think Zach would do fine in terms of attitude, although off-court issues may never leave him, and he'd be closer to his home, which is likely a bad thing in that regard.

It's more his skill set that may cause problems. He can clearly score but he also doesn't do much without the ball. The Bulls like to move and pass and Zach doesn't do much of either. And not only is he a subpar defender he's also undersized for a PF, so pairing him with Wallace may not be the best idea.

I still think he's worth the risk though, because you could acquire him without giving up anything too special. Nocioni and the pick are expendable. I still would hope to hold out for Gasol but I'd also rather do something than nothing (nothing being resigning Nocioni and drafting a big) to get a starting 4, as Tyrus should be a 6th man next year but not ready to start.

As far as the deal, the non-core assets the Bulls can deal are Nocioni in a sign/trade, the pick, as well as two expiring contracts of Duhon and Khryapa. From what I read last summer the Blazers wouldn't mind having Viktor back. Duhon doesn't help the glut of small guards on Portland, so maybe a 3rd team would need to get involved to take his contract, or take Dickau, or maybe expand the deal to include Jarrett Jack.

I also think if the deal waits until after the draft the pick can be signed first and therefore added to the total salary of the trade package. So between that, Duhon, and Khryapa, the Blazers wouldn't need to give Nocioni an outrageous deal. I actually think he could be worth 4-5 years at the mid-level to the Blazers, but I'm hoping the Bulls are 'beyond' Nocioni in their development as a team, if that makes sense.

Another candidate for sign/trade is PJ Brown. Not sure if he wants to go to a (re)building team like Portland but I can see a situation where Portland gives him a fat one-year contract to be the resident old sage and provide some frontcourt defense.

For better or worse, there it is. The #9 pick was in there but there wasn't a Deng reference to be found. That's something though.

Your thoughts?

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

P.S. There's plenty of other stuff today so make sure you scroll down!

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should be interesting

Nocioni is a fine player and would be coming from a well coached team to fit in with us. I like him as our potential SF.

My 1 question is this, what do we do with that #9 pick?

If we acquire Nocioni, aren't we getting him to be a starter?

Assuming we take Oden #1, and trade Zbo for pj brown, nocioni and #9 that gives us..

Jack
Roy
Nocioni
Aldridge
Oden

Sergio, Dickau
Jones
Udoka, Webster
Brown, Raef
Przybilla

Plus the #9.

I think we need backcourt help, particularly the 2. I like Jones but I'm not a big fan of his play. We could take a PF, I mean Raef and PJ would be old dinosaurs, no reason to play them just because.

Plus there's always the signing of Outlaw, which them jams us up even more.

Interesting stuff, but then again it wouldn't be such a bad thing to have so much talent.

PG: Jack, Sergio, Dickau
SG: Roy, Jones
SF: Nocioni, Udoka, Webster, Miles
PF: Aldridge, Outlaw, Brown, Raef
C: Oden, Przybilla

you may notice that our roster is maxed at 15 now, without taking that #9 pick, or those 4 2nd rounders...

obviously changes are coming.

Welcome Greg Oden

by junit3123 on Jun 4, 2007 12:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Matt's review

I came up with scenerios close to Matt's.

I would really like to see Portland get Khryapa back. This past season was basically wasted for him, as he rarely got off the bench. I see him as a 6th man of the year candidate with regular playing time. Victor can fill in at three spots (2,3 & 4).

I like including PJ Brown on a 1-yr deal. He would be an excellent mentor for Aldridge and Oden. (It might also be to his advantage if he has any thoughts on getting into coaching.)

Then there is the #9 pick. That's a nice pick up in this draft.

Nocioni sounds like a good pickup, but now we start running into problems of available roster spots and playing time.

# 1 pick (Oden)
Aldridge
#9 pick
Roy
Jack

Pryzbilla
PJ Brown
Udoka
Jones
Sergio

LaFrenz
Outlaw
Miles
Webster
Dickau

There are also the four 2nd round picks.

Let's assume we'd get Nocioni, Brown, Khryapa & the #9 pick for Randolph, next year's #1 pick and one or two second rounders from this year.

Downside - Portland loses their top scorer and one of the few 20 & 10 guys in the league (who is just 25 and proven to be a hard worker). My guess is they probably don't make the same inprovement in number of wins over this season as they did last. They may even regress slightly. The team could face potential issues with playing time. At a minimum we will have guys sitting that could be valuable contributors if given enough minutes.

Upside - Portland frees up PT for its young big guys, at the same time possibly improving McMillan's chances of molding the Blazers into a running and ball movement team that develops an identity as a hard working, defensively tough group. As a minor bonus, they get some salery relief by converting some of Zach's salery to PJ Brown's one year deal. Finally, Pritchard gets lot pieces to play with. Who knows what he can cook up with the #9 pick, four 2nd rndrs, Nocioni plus guys like Jack, Outlaw, Webster, Dickau & Jones. Who knows, he might even sweet talk Seattle out of the #2 pick.

by timg56 on Jun 4, 2007 7:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

roster spots

I'd think one roster spot can be had by buying out Miles. Also, keeping both Udoka and Outlaw seems a bit redundant.

-Matt
BlogABull.com

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 4, 2007 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they'll buy him out ...

if there's a chance he might have to retire due to injury. That would save the franchise a whole heap of money AND clear his salary from the cap, whereas buying him out COSTS the franchise a whole heap of money, and he still counts against the cap.

by bfan on Jun 4, 2007 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

I think it's more like Outlaw and Nocioni are redundant. Outlaw is basically a crappier version of Nocioni (tweener SF/PF) who plays much worse d and is a worse rebounder. Udoka figures to be a SG/SF who comes off the bench and provides some defensive help and a little spot up shooting, assuming we sign him.

Seems kind of unlikely that we buy out Miles, with so many years remaining, as much as we all might hope for it. Not so sure that an open roster spot on its own is enough incentive either.

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Outlaw worse d than Nocc?

From reading the blog-a-bull the bulls fans seem to think Noc doesn't play very good D at all. He lacks lateral quickness to stay with players on the perimeter. The more I read about him from fans of the bulls, the more I don't want him.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 4, 2007 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I always

take anything a fanbase has to say about their players, good or bad, with a huuuuuge grain of salt.

Nocioni's not going to be a perennial allstar, but he's a nice asset coming off the bench, who can play very respectable defense, rebound, hit jumpers from multiple spots on the floor, hit the open three.

And yes, Outlaw's defense is hugely worse than Nocioni's, it's not even close. Outlaw makes Nocioni look like Bowen.

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Outlaw's help defense is quite a bit better

than Nocioni's, and he'd be better on the ball but for his mental lapses because he is quick enough. Nocioni isn't. Honestly, I don't know how you can list defense as a strength as far as Nocioni's concerned. He can play spot defense at the 4. So can Outlaw. Outlaw's help defense at the 4 spot is much more noticeable to a team. Nocioni's strength is offense.

by ranma on Jun 5, 2007 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nocioni is "physically intimidating"

He has one thing in common with Bowen--other players live in fear that Nico may crack their heads if they drive to the hoop.

by EngineerScotty on Jun 5, 2007 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone can do that.

Flagrant fouling doesn't equal good defense.

by ranma on Jun 5, 2007 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a lot of good info on Nocioni

He's certainly a good player, yet still flawed. I think he'd really help the Blazers since they don't have many agressive offensive players. Noc is certainly that much.

http://blogabull.com/story/2007/6/1/1516/46949

-Matt
BlogABull.com

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 4, 2007 7:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If Nocioni ...

Could we get him on a 3 year deal? That way we could still take a SF with #9 and have him play behind Nocioni for a couple years of adjustment. But I agree, the roster is looking too full for an uneven trade. We'll probably have to send out another player with Randolph if we trade him. Either that, or it's less likely we resign Outlaw or Ime, which would be unfortunate. If it meant coming out of this draft with a second lottery pick like Brewer or Green, I'd be okay moving Webster to make room. I'd still like to see him develop, but at this point with Roy as the obvious starter, I think his skills are a little more expendable than Ime and Outlaw.

And another thing: All do respect to Matt from Blog-A-Bull, but should we still be considered a "rebuilding" team. Is that how players across the league see us? Seems to me with this #1 pick that we will be "rebuilt," not "rebuilding." And if I were a player, I'd want to jump on the train now while we're still at the station. Otherwise they'll miss a sweet ride ...

by bfan on Jun 4, 2007 7:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Rebuilding vs rebuilt

If we assume that most of the pieces will be in place after this summer, you still have to get everyone
a) fully developed

and

b) integrated as a team

So yes, I'd still classify the Blazers as a rebuilding team.

by timg56 on Jun 4, 2007 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem with Nocioni

is, he's a 4. I've heard announcers mention this on occasion when I watched Bulls games here and there this year on TV, which I did, because the Bulls were one of my more favorite teams when the Blazers weren't playing. He's a smaller, more mobile 4. We happen to already have one of those in Travis Outlaw, and we usually aren't shy about dangling him in trade rumors either. Basically my opinion of this type of player is that it's a small forward who can't guard small forwards. Not all that useful if we want to get better at defense, which we do.

If you parse Matt's message, it seems very much like he's confirming this:

"I still would hope to hold out for Gasol but I'd also rather do something than nothing (nothing being resigning Nocioni and drafting a big) to get a starting 4"

Just going off of what he says is available, I'd rather get Khryapa, Duhon and the #9 pick for Zach, unless we give up Travis in addition to Zach as part of a trade, and then the trade needs to get completely reworked anyway.

by ranma on Jun 4, 2007 8:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Mm, not really

He's more a 3 who's forced to play a lot as a 4 because he's stuck behind Deng in the rotation. He's handled himself well enough at the 4 since he's a good rebounder and defends bigger guys pretty well, but he's a true 3.

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just going by what other people have said.

Also mainly going by who he can guard. I mean, we'd like Outlaw to be a 3 as well, but he's really bad at playing defense there.

by ranma on Jun 4, 2007 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's true he's not the fastest guy

but he's so high energy and chippy, he's one of those defenders that can disrupt guys just by annoying the bejeesus out of them. He's done fine guarding a lot of smaller faster guys.

He had a rough playoffs this year, and I suspect he's still feeling the effects of the plantar fasciitis. He had an outstanding series against Miami last year.

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Out of curiosity,

who did he guard during the Miami series? I can't quite remember. I'll say this about Nocioni... he has a coherent offensive game.

I just really want us to improve our defense. Losing Zach would help a lot, but our perimeter defense was severely lacking as well, and Udoka can do it, but he's just a bit small, and Nocioni would be a downgrade. Khryapa for example plays what is, for me, far better defense at the 3 spot than Nocioni. He makes hustle plays, can move his feet, plays good help defense, and good on the ball defense. He just can't score to save his life. And he does foul a lot, but I would much rather have our 3 get fouls keeping his guy from penetrating than have LMA or Oden get help fouls for that.

by ranma on Jun 4, 2007 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Er, other people probably have a better memory

than me, but I believe he mostly covered Antoine?

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're right

he plays more of a SF game offensively (very good 3-point shooter), but isn't quick enough to defend on the perimeter. Plus for all his grit (or whatever) he's not a very smart defender.

Guarding the 4 he's certainly tough enough but doesn't rebound or block enough shots to last too long there.

So, yeah, he's a tweener.

-Matt
BlogABull.com

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 4, 2007 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see it.

Here's what I don't get about all of these trades--the Bulls don't own the rights to Nocioni. He's an unrestricted free agent, and you can't even talk to free agents until after the draft. So this trade assumes that the Bulls are going to draft a guy that WE want at #9, with the assumption that they are going to be able to convince Nocioni to move to Portland for the type of salary we want to pay him. That's putting a ton of faith in what you think Nocioni's goals are. And the same is true of PJ Brown.

Unless the Blazers' and Bulls' goals line up exactly in the draft, I can't see the Bulls taking a risk like this and just hoping they can work something out with Nocioni. I'm not saying some kind of deal like this doesn't happen in a couple months, but if it's going to involve the draft pick, it probably isn't going to involve Nocioni.

by HarryManback on Jun 4, 2007 8:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

he's a restricted FA.

-Matt
BlogABull.com

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 4, 2007 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regardless...

They don't own his rights. They can't trade him before the FA-signing period. A draft-day deal for Nocioni and the #9 cannot happen.

by HarryManback on Jun 4, 2007 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

even better

so the draft pick can be included as salary, which the Bulls will need to offset the Randolph money.

I agree that it's very dicey to speculate on sign/trades. Although I think with Noc it may be worth his while just so he can get something above the MLE, since I doubt any team under the cap would give him more than that.

-Matt
BlogABull.com

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 4, 2007 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The major piece

is the #9 pick. If we agree to a gentleman's agreement of the player we like at #9, I'm sure KP and Paxon would do something like (1) assume that Nocioni would agree to go to Portland at a slightly better than market rate contract (around 8 mill); and (2) have a contingency plan in case Nocioni is unavailable to make the trade work because of a substantially larger offer from others. For instance, if Nocioni gets paid 12 mill by the Bobcats, then the second option would probably be some mix of PJ Brown, Chris Duhon, and future picks of some acceptable variety that helps balance out the deal.

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Including Nocioni

Let's substitute PJ Brown for Nocioni. Eliminates the issue of Nocioni being a restricted FA. Additionally, Brown provides a veteran presence plus backup insurance at Zach's old position.

by timg56 on Jun 4, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

PJ Brown

...is an unrestricted free agent. Even worse than a restricted one, especially since he is considering retirement.

by HarryManback on Jun 4, 2007 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

PJ Brown

is not a good substitute for Nocioni. Noci has value; PJ would just be to balance contracts for cap purposes, and would undoubtedly be for a 1 year contract for whatever the dollar amount would be.

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brown also has value

With PJ the Blazers get a veteran backup with a reputation as a solid citizen to act as a mentor to our bigs, plus $8 million or more of payroll relief in a year (assuming he's willing to sign a 1-yr deal).

Khryapa offers much of what Nocioni does, at half the price.

by timg56 on Jun 4, 2007 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I were you guys ...

I'd keep the pick and take a flyer on Kwame Brown L.A. needs some toughness and shooting outside of Kobe, so I think they'd trade Kwame's expiring deal for Duhon and Nocioni at slightly more than the mid-level (which is to Nocioni's advantage). At the very least they look like they're doing SOMETHING so Kobe doesn't pitch another fit.

If Kwame doesn't bring the post presence you need, I'm sure there are plenty of teams that would be interested in his expiring contract, which you could package with something else at the trade deadline for an even better upgrade at PF. Plus you still have the #9 pick to use on Noah or Yi or whoever is left at that point to shore up your front line. This may not be it, but it seems like there are better deals out there for the Bulls than acquiring Randolph ...

by bfan on Jun 4, 2007 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

perhaps

I only see one better deal, and that's for Gasol. KG and J.O'Neal make too much money to deal for, unfortunately.

parlaying Noc (and change) into a fat expiring deal isn't a bad idea though.

-Matt
BlogABull.com

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 4, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unless Memphis

changes their mind on what they want for Gasol, seems like Zbo is probably the best yall can get without breaking up the Deng/Gordon/Hinrich combo.

I forget though, would Memphis take Gordon/TT/#9 or some combo like that for Pau? Deng and Hinrich seem legitimately to be untouchables but I personally don't think Gordon's your future.

Also, is the low post void still as urgent given the imminent breakup of the Pistons?

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm still just not on board.

Zach is the key to all of the Blazers' plans for the summer. I don't see how they can do anything until they know what he's bringing in return. If we assume that whatever deal is in place with Chicago is a gentleman's agreement to make the best effort to bring back Nocioni, then we also have to allow Nocioni time to go and negotiate on the open market (unless, of course, you have some kind of deal in place with him already. But that would be ILLEGAL).

If you let him do that, who knows when this trade gets completed. I don't think Pritchard is going to want to sit on a Zach deal so far into the summer. And I don't think Paxson would want to, either. I still think that if a Chicago trade happens, it doesn't involve Nocioni. Or at least, I don't think they have anything planned now that involves him...

by HarryManback on Jun 4, 2007 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

why do you guys want kryapa back?

where is he going to play? All he'll be doing is handing out water..

seriously, with Webster, Udoka, the #9 and/or Nocioni, Krhyapa would be lucky to get an active roster spot.

Welcome Greg Oden

by junit3123 on Jun 4, 2007 8:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

To me, this trade depends a lot

on who's left at 9. I'm personally not that high on the SFs and PGs in the lottery. I like a lot of the bigs, though. But do we really need that high profile a big if we draft Oden? We'd have Oden, LMA, Joel, and Raef sharing time in the middle. Zbo for a fifth rotation guy in the frontcourt seems like serious overpayment.

I love the trade if we go Durant, and Noah's available at 9. I think a frontcourt of Durant/LMA/Noah with Roy and hopefully Sergio in the back could be the foundation of many many titles.

Basically, I think if we pick Oden, we should focus almost exclusively on getting Rashard. If we go Durant, and Noah available at 9, I love this trade.

Nocioni's a guy I've had my eye on for awhile for our team -- I'm not sure how much the effects of the plantar fasciitis lingers, but when healthy, Nocioni ought to be a major defense/energy/toughness infusion, all major weaknesses of our current squad, and I like the idea of having another Spanish speaking international on our team to help Sergio transition.

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Julian Wright, Jeff Green, Al Thornton

They will all be available, all are capable of being good starting players in the NBA.

by EnglandDan on Jun 4, 2007 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thornton I don't know that well

but Julian's one big gamble, and I project Jeff Green as a good, productive bench player. I don't trade a 20/10 guy for a bench player or potential busts.

by howlingfantods on Jun 4, 2007 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff Green is about the same level of prospect

as Brandon Roy was last year.

by EnglandDan on Jun 5, 2007 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nocioni isn't my favorite

Nocioni isn't my ideal guy. His flopping and dirty play remind me too much of Bowen, Ginobili, Varejao, etc. - some of my least favorite in the NBA.

On the plus side, he has been very effective in the playoffs - especially last year. Part of that is due to bad NBA reffing - especially having the most flop-friendly refs work in the post season.
http://hoopshype.com/columns/flop_hans.htm
http://hoopshype.com/columns/varejao_hans.htm

Overall, Noc is not someone I would enjoy rooting for, but would reluctantly accept him. However, I would be upset if we overpaid for him. (i.e give him more than the mid-level exception)

by jm on Jun 4, 2007 9:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Reminds you of three key player in the NBA Finals?

And thats why you don't want him?

by matthewcc on Jun 4, 2007 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he plays ...

... like Bowen, Ginobili, or Varejao, then he'd be an excellent addition.

(Complaining about dirty play is for wusses.)

by timg56 on Jun 4, 2007 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bulls shot 36% from the field in the 4 losses to

the Pistons on average, 10% below their season average. THAT'S HORRIBLE. They're not going anywhere in the playoffs until they get KG, Zbo, Gasol or some other legitmate low-post offensive presence.

Matt seems to forget who has the leverage. KP doesn't HAVE to trade Zbo to anyone. The Bulls are the ones that risk wasting most or all of the 60 million big ones they spent on Big Ben last summer. Maybe Paxson will just wait it out. Maybe KG will opt-out next summer or come there in 2 years when he's a FA and Wallace is 35. Maybe, maybe not.

Just give us Kirk for Zach and Martell. Sign Steve Blake if you really think Duhon isn't sufficient, keep your draft picks, and go to the Finals next year. Sheesh.

by JMblazerfan on Jun 4, 2007 9:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't trade Zach

The guy is an amazing talent, in the top echelon of the league. Give him a chance to straighten up and he'll be OK. I'd love to see Oden, Zach and Aldridge on the floor together at the same time!

by castle on Jun 4, 2007 11:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Other trade chips...

As has been said in previous posts, it seems like the biggest problem is Roster flexibility for this trade to happen.

We have 5 picks in this year's draft, at least one former pick playing overseas who could potentially (although he probably won't) come State-side, and a whole slew of players who are at MAX 3 years removed from college or high school.

Portland is so young right now, we think Randolph is old at 25!

Martell Webster can and has played shooting guard, and Outlaw has played 3, 4, and 5 when the Blazers went really small, so it would seem like their versatility and youth in some ways out-shines the awesome story that is Ime Udoka.

I know it screws up the finances, but is there anyway we can sneak in some of our Cap-Killers and escape with some expiring contracts? Raef LaFrentz, Dan Dickau, Joel Pryzbilla and Darius Miles accounted for a phenomenal amount of Cap room despite having a limited impact.

For cap reasons, and because I think he would be a solid veteran leader for our dynomite front line, I think PJ Brown would be a better fit than Nocioni...

by Champs2009 on Jun 4, 2007 12:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs