Francis, the cap, trades, and small forwards

by Blazerholic on Jun 29, 2007 4:56 AM PDT

First, let me say I'm absolutely shocked by the hostile reactions of the Zach trade. Despite all the good things that he's done for the franchise so far, it's clear people have little faith in Pritchard's abilities, judging by the knee-jerk reactions. Today I can honestly say I was embarrassed to be a Blazer fan.

Coming down off my soapbox, it is clear that Pritchard was determined to trade Randolph this summer for 1) a small forward and 2) payroll reduction. Tom Penn's abilities as a cap lawyer not only got him the assistant GM job, but he was tasked with figuring out the payroll reduction aspect of Zach's trade. Years from now this may be known as the "Tom Penn Draft".

When a team over the cap performs a trade, they must use an exception, even if they reduce payroll. To have the salaries match, Portland receives an exception equal to the difference in salaries. This becomes important later. Why did the deal have to be done draft day? It's because of the moratorium between July 1 - 11. Since July 1 is Sunday, it was imperative the deal be done to facilitate other trades, as you will see below.

New York had agreed to a buyout with Francis. The buyout has Francis giving up his player option and taking about 10-15 million. Francis keeps the money, becomes a free agent, and may sign with another team. The buyout is transferable to Portland, meaning that if Francis signs with another team for the mid-level exception (5 million), the Blazers would only have 7.5 - 12.5 million count against the cap for this year, and nothing for next year. Letting Freddie and Dan expire this year would only have saved us 6.1 million. This way we eat the buyout and dump Zach's ridiculous contract. Francis will never wear a Blazer uni.

There are two schools of thought as to why we must wait until the New York trade is finalized, and both involve Phoenix. The first option concerns the reports that the Blazers are getting James Jones. In this case, the trade exception from the New York deal is used, along with the 3 million in cash, to get Jones and Fernandez. Phoenix gains some small cap relief (Jones), the trade exception (they can use later), and frees a roster spot and a guarenteed contract (the 24th pick).

The second is that the Blazers are targeting Shawn Marion. In this case, Francis is traded, with the exception, cash, and probably another cheap piece such as Webster or Jack, for Marion. By gaining the Francis buyout and dumping Marion, the Suns gain a ton of cap space, and Francis is a Blazer for about 10 days.

Even after the New York trade is approved, nothing further can happen until after the moratorium, which corresponds to Pritchard's and Penn's comments in the news conference.

This is all speculation on my part, but it seems to make sense. Would Francis give up that much money? I think he would to get out of New York and STILL would get to collect 2 paychecks. Maybe the buyout figure is a little higher, like his full 20 million this year...we'll know more later.

And if I'm wrong and Francis is wearing a Blazer uni next year?

Just shoot me.

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Sorry, I should have explained the buyout savings

If he signs with another team, half of what he signs for comes off the buyout (as far as what would count against the cap; he'd still be owed the money). I was using a one year, mid-level exception, which equals 2.5 million. I believe if it was 3 years at 5 million per year, half of the total contract comes off, which means half of 15 million, or 7.5 million.

Who would take that chance on him? I believe Miami would. Maybe even Denver if they lose Steve Blake.

by Blazerholic on Jun 29, 2007 5:04 AM PDT reply actions

I think

Francis is a good gamble for Miami with the mid-level exception. Veteran team that won't be poisoned by his nonsense. I think what you said makes sense, and I pray you are right. I was upset when I first heard the trade but the more I thought about it the more I felt like obviously there was more to it than met the eye. In KP I trust!!

by JPop on Jun 29, 2007 5:43 AM PDT up reply actions

It's all too complicated

for me to understand, so I will accept your explanation as valid. It makes sense to me with all the bits & pieces I've heard.

I was at the RG and the Blazer broadcasters were in speculation mode as soon as the rumors appeared to be true and they were all adamant in saying "you'll never see Francis in a Blazer uniform". Therefore I was also amazed to log in here and see all the doom and gloom since it was the opposite of what I'd been hearing. The only negative I heard there (and admittedly I couldn't hear everything clearly) was feeling badly for Dan & Freddy who love Portland and were looking forward to playing with the rapidly improving Blazers.

For those who counseled "patience" ... it's time to walk the walk. Or should that be walk the talk?

by jorga on Jun 29, 2007 5:46 AM PDT reply actions

Walk the writing?

by ken @ Blazer's Edge on Jun 29, 2007 5:53 AM PDT up reply actions

Sounds good to me

Make this all so!

I suggested something similar in my speculation thread, but didn't back it up as in depth and nicely as you did. All I know for SURE is that what we know thus far is likely just a layer of the trade onion.

More has to come with this.

But yeah, WORST CASE SCENARIO, we buy him out, yadayada, we all got what we want: Aldridge starting, no mo' Z-Bo, more team play, more focus on and off the court on how awesome our young guys are, and we get on the Autobahn towards the Championship.

I admit I was confused and annoyed by the trade initially, even though I wanted Zach to be traded for his sake as much as ours. I just felt like we coulda' got SOMETHING for him-- Frye is fine, was hurt all last year, and that might be a regular thing for him. He is a good backup, however. Soft, but that's fine. Aldridge and Oden are beasts, as is a healthy Pryzzle on defense. But for Zach's level of talent? It felt like we coulda got David Lee or sumthin' more...

But if this isn't the end of the deal and we got Tom Penn cap-space-bamboozling, then I'm very excited to see how it plays out. If it's just using the trade exception for Jamesie Jonesie, well, that's a yawn and a half. I like him just fine, but... I am indifferent.

Marion might be a pipe dream in this scenario, but you make it sound much more realistic than I did. I think on a team like we got now, Marion would either re-up his contract or keep his player option... it'll be a very, very fun team.

I can't wait till we see how this all develops. I can't wait for summer league. I can't wait for the season. Those are all understatements.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 29, 2007 6:16 AM PDT reply actions

But, also...

One hole in this great plan IS:

Would PHX, even if it wants to save money and move Marion to do so, move Marion to a western conference team that very, VERY soon will be able to compete with them?

I mean, if we add Marion to our current lineup, we are good. Scary good. With eons of upside still to grow. Would PHX help us out like that?

One can only hope one is as generous as one hopes that Steve Kerr hopefully is.

I can't think of another scenario, but one of you smart peoples out there in Blazer-land surely will. Perhaps this deal branches out even further and brings in a 3rd or 4th team, perhaps getting Garnett over to the Suns...

I can see them living without Marion that way. Play the Frenchman Diaw at the 3, or someone else I am forgetting.

It could work! Let it work! Marion is the only guy with an ugly shot I'd want! I HATE ugly shots but I am willing to make an exception just this once to help the deal happen.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Jun 29, 2007 6:23 AM PDT reply actions

Phoenix's owner is a CHEAPSKATE

This team was assembled largely by prior owner Jerry Coangelo, but he sold the team in 2004 to Robert Sarver, who has been pinching pennies ever since:

Consider:

Traded Joe Johnson to Atlanta to avoid paying him what he's worth, got back Boris Diaw.
Two years in a row, he has sold us a frigging first round draft pick, for cash.
Now, he's reportedly willing to dump Shawn Marion in order to avoid paying his salary.

It says here that Phoenix will wind up back in the Western Conference dumpster in a couple years. The Coangelos knew how to run a basketball team, now the younger one's in Toronto turning the Raps into a contender, and the older one is retired. As soon as Steve Nash retires, look out--if not before.

Marion on the Blazers would be sweet.

by EngineerScotty on Jun 29, 2007 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions

We definitely used the trade exception already...

I'm not seeing a scenario where it's unused for the sake of a Marion/bigger deal.

- Sam

by Samuelson on Jun 29, 2007 6:24 AM PDT reply actions

Paul Allen

Isn't it obvious that he is not going to have any problems spending his money again?

He is trusting the brains around him.

And trust me, it isn't Bob Whitsitt in his ear this time.

This scenario was planned by people who know what we want. See Zach run, see Zach leave, just see ya Zach! Give it time, give it patience.

The Oden Era, Day 2

by Heymoe on Jun 29, 2007 7:50 AM PDT reply actions

Excellent analysis

Thanks!

Francis is immediate trade fodder
Francis is immediate buy-out fodder
Both.

And if by chance he shows up and contributes? Well maybe that's far-fetched, but not impossible.

Whichever it is Randolph is GONE, and that's an excellent thing. I never agree with Canzano, but his description of the sense of dread about Randolph that Blazer execs must have felt about old Z-bo sounded very plausible. I'm happy he's gone the same way I was happy when Patterson left -- some guys you just don't want, no matter what. I didn't like the way he played and I didn't like the way he conducted himself. (I didn't feel the same way about Rasheed, by the way.)

by barryj on Jun 29, 2007 8:26 AM PDT reply actions

How did you feel about the Blazers two years ago..

and how do you feel about them today? Not just on the court, but off the court as well. Kevin Pritchard deserves the Executive of the Year Award right now. Think about all the lousy GMs in the league (McHale, Thomas, Ainge, King, Knight etc.) and be happy that someone who knows what he's doing is in Portland.

by Cant Teach Height on Jun 29, 2007 9:16 AM PDT reply actions

SOme stirrings

"By early June, Portland general manager Kevin Pritchard knew he would trade Randolph this offseason after a prominent Blazers player requested that Randolph be dealt. Pritchard left the Orlando pre-draft camp June 1 with offers from five teams interested in Randolph -- three from the Western Conference and two from the Eastern Conference. "

That player must be Brandon Roy right? wasn't he confronting Zbo about leadership?

ANyways it looks like Kevin Pritchard got this trade proposal right before the draft, i'm thinking that since there wer 5 other possibilities, which seems to me makes me want to think Steve Francis will be traded to possibly Phoenix for a deal for Marion

NOw i'm not sure if PhOenix would involve Atlanta/Minnesota for Kg but it seems that the Phoenix Owner will do anything to gain some money.

1.He traded Joe Johnson to avoid paying him
2.THey traded 2 straight mid-20 draft picks for cash
3.He doesn't want to pay Shawn Marion's contract virtually shopping him for cap relief.

by Blazerhopeful on Jun 29, 2007 9:17 AM PDT reply actions

B-Roy

and Zach were tight. I doubt Roy was that player.

Welcome Greg Oden

by junit3123 @ Blazer's Edge on Jun 29, 2007 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Appearences

can be decieving. B-Roy has a knack for PR. He may have just been making nice for the sake of co-existing. After all he was a rookie.

by mjm6783 on Jun 29, 2007 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions

THe Trade

Is the trade KP is talking about is the trade with James Jones? or is it a larger trade?

I'm not sure, if its James Jones then the ZBo trade looks even worse

Gulp

by Blazerhopeful on Jun 29, 2007 9:29 AM PDT reply actions

Everything the Blazers did tonight AFTER Oden.....

. . . wasn all about thinning out the roster.

Check it: If we buy out Francis, we don't save payroll (vs keeping him for 2 years),
we don't avoid any cap hit--but we DO clear out his roster spot,
thus turning three roster spots (Zach, Freddie and Dickau) into just one (the Frye Guy).

Then, we went and acquired two late first-rounders (Rudy and Petteri),
both of whom are Euros that we can stash away for later and not add to the roster now.

Two of our four second-rounders were thereby traded; the other two
are still non-guaranteed-contract second-rounders.

So where we at from all of this? A REALLY small number of set roster spots:

JJ
Roy
LMA
Oden
Sergio
Martell
Darius
Frye
Raef
Joel

Don't count Francis. He's NOT going to take a roster spot.
THA'S the point of the buyout, NOT savings in either payroll or cap (until year 3).

So that's 10--count 'em, TEN--roster spots taken up.
And when Pritchard commits (as he seems to have done) to doing another trade in ten days,
one which cannot happen before then for those weird reasons laid out elsewhere,
and one that specifically passes on someone we acquired in the Knicks trade--
well, if you believe (like I do) that the Francis aspect of the trade
was all about savings after year 2 AND clearing roster (not PAYROLL) space,
then it's obvious that the follow-up trade for a small forward will involve Frye.

AND!--With HIS small contract, that's likely to be another
more-Blazers-going-than-coming deal that reduces the roster even further.
What does a package with Frye also have? Martell? JJ? Future draft picks?
If we're gonna get Blake (still looking likely), I'd bet on a JJ/Frye package.
I think that gets us a really good SF still on a rookie contract,
be it one of this year's picks or some recent pick still on a rookie contract .
Hello, Atlanta. You took Horford, dincha? He's a keeper.
Now, about those Joshes and the Williams Sisters . . .

So, there ya go.
All roster thinning, with Francis pure buyout just to kill the roster spot,
followed by (I think) a PACKAGE of Blazers including Frye netting a SF.

Then, the roster would look like THIS:

JJ OR Martell (if one of them moves in the Frye deal)
Roy
The small forward netted in the Frye deal
LMA
Oden
Sergio
Darius (STILL on the roster!)
Raef
Joel

That's nine, and that'd be the end of the off-season trades.
On to the signings. Here's who possibly needs to be signed (in order of likeliness):

Ime
Blake
Trout
McRoberts
Taurean
Possibly Freddie, if the Knicks release him

Even before Freddie (who WOULD be on the roster without yesterday's moves),
that's FIVE guys we would like to get on the roster that aren't there now,
and would've wanted to anyway WITHOUT ANY OF YESTERDAY'S EVENTS.

That's why it's all about roster space.
That's why we did everything we did yesterday, following the Oden pick.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Jun 29, 2007 9:46 AM PDT reply actions

Woops. Forgot about James Jones.

Still not clear on what that deal is, exactly.
Nothing said here seems to spell it out, exactly.
A lot of identifying what it's NOT, though.

Part of the Knicks trade? NO.
Part of the Phoenix Fernandez deal? NO.
Part of the follow-up small forward trade in ten days? NO.

Ummmm, what thee heckamoses IS the James Jones deal, anyway?

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Jun 29, 2007 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Ah. Okay.

A follow-up to the Knicks trade, but not THE follow-up for a small forward that's coming.

Knicks threw in a trade exception in the Zach deal, we used it to get James Jones.
Why didn't anyone here just come right and SAY SO before now, dagnabbit?!?

Okay.
So add James Jones to that pre-Frye-trade roster.
Still likely to end up in that Frye package going right back out again.

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Jun 29, 2007 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions

It is part of the Phoenix deal.

We acquired a trade exception from New York. We traded that to Phoenix for James Jones. We also bought their pick for $3 million. Getting the pick was contingent on us trading Jones for the exception. We did this because we wanted a shooter at the 3 and Rudy Fernandez. Phoenix did it because they are concerned about going into the luxury tax area where all these contracts cost double their value. Phoenix probably saved more than $10 million on this deal.

by EnglandDan on Jun 29, 2007 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Same deal or different deal?

Was it a single, trade-exception-and-$$$-for-James-Jones-and-Rudy-Fernandez deal?
Or was there a cash-for-Rudy deal, and THEN a separate trade-exception-for-JJ deal?

Not that it matters, of course . . .

Blazers have a five-on-three...and they pull it back and wait for help.

by QualityPie on Jun 29, 2007 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Here's a thought:

Fernandez was hinted about by KP in the chat.

Perhaps he's going BACK to Phoenix, and the whole trade for him was an excuse to slip an extra $3 million into Robert Sarver's pocket--the deal was about Marion all along?

If the whole thing turns into Zach for Marion, with various spare parts changing hands (Dickau, two Jones, Frye, Fernandez, Franchise's contract) along with buckets of Paul Allen's money--then KP deserves yet another tip of the cap.

by EngineerScotty on Jun 29, 2007 10:13 AM PDT reply actions

Blazerholic = Please be right

I hope Blazerholic is right, that this is some precursor to BIGGER things. I would be ecstatic if those things involved Shawn Marion. I can see why Penn the Cap Guy or "PennCap" was hired and I hope there is more to Stevie Franchise than paying him $15 mil. to go join a contender for the veteran's minimum a la Chris Webber so that way only half a mil comes off the cap. If he can't be turned into Marion or some other trickery I really wouldn't mind seeing him play. I know the locker room cancer issues, but 5 years this guy was my favorite player. He was good for 20-7-7 every night and fun to watch. He's become a shadow of his former self, but maybe that was just the effect of playing for the mess they call the Knicks. KP keeps the excitement coming. I would think more is coming because James Jones? He can shoot but with Ime and Outlaw as FAs do we need another small forward if we're planning on acquiring one through a trade? I'm having a hard time imagining the roster next year other than:
C: Oden
PF: Aldridge
SF: ?
SG: Roy
PG: ?
Bench: Martell, Joel, Sergio, Raef, Darius.
Other than those (and McRoberts) I'm not sure they're going to be on the team. Even Joel. Can't wait to see what develops.

by morescrillaigots on Jun 29, 2007 10:27 AM PDT reply actions

don't know about that

I doubt that Marion is coming, but if what you said about the buyout is true then I'm happier about the trade, but we'd still need aq SF.

by Bruno on Jun 29, 2007 10:37 AM PDT reply actions

marion commands more

two things,

it's hard to imagine that PHX would give up Marion for so little, especially since they were trying to turn him into KG just last week...
Marion is much better as a PF (in an up-tempo system) than as a SF. He can't create his own shot. He's best at put-backs and alleyoops. He can make 3's, but he's not a great 3 point shooter, He adds to our logjam at PF and C...so he doesn't really fit with the 3 point shooting SF that we've been dying for (like Durant or Rashard)...

That said, he's a fantastic fantasy basketball player :-)...though that would slip if he's not playing in Phoenix's system.

by jm @ Blazer's Edge on Jun 29, 2007 10:46 AM PDT reply actions

I don't know...

When word first came out about Marion it was because PHX wanted to save money, not aquire another big contract like KG. If they could get KG that might convince them to go over the tax, but otherwise I think they are looking for cap relief.

by usmcr3049 on Jun 29, 2007 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions