Draft Week: Making the Call
by Dave on Jun 24, 2007 12:58 AM PDT
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PrintWe have officially entered draft week and it's time to put the cards on the table. I've listened to all the arguments, read the interviews, watched the videos, and heard enough analysis to choke a hippopotamus. It's time to sort out some of these questions and make a call.
Issue #1: The Sam Bowie Question
One of the most frequently-asked questions outside of Portland (and one of the lingering ghosts among the Blazer fan base) is whether this draft pick has any chance of being another Sam Bowie situation, especially since the center vs. dominant scorer choice seems to be before us again. This is a specter we can put to bed.
I just finished reading a book called Tip Off: How the 1984 NBA Draft Changed Basketball Forever by New York Daily News columnist Filip Bondy. (We'll have a full book review on Monday.) The story looked not only at the players but at the draft process itself. It's unbelievable how different things were then compared to today. There were no individual workouts. There was hardly any game film. Scouting staffs were small. If you were lucky you saw your draft pick on national TV and then maybe for a day or two at a combine or pre-draft camp. You relied on coaches' recommendations, inside information, and your own gut instinct. When you were right you looked like a genius. When you were wrong--and that happened pretty often--those were the breaks. If you go back and look through those drafts in the 70's and 80's you're going to see a lot of names that look completely misplaced...far more than you'd see from recent drafts. Guys like Jordan and Bowie wouldn't be bursting on the scene in their last couple years of college nowadays. They would have left a video and statistical trail through scouting departments since the 7th grade, much like Greg Oden has. I would never tempt fate by saying a Bowie-type pick couldn't happen again. But I would argue it's going to be rare compared to back in the day.
People often forget that 1984 wasn't the Bowie draft or the Jordan draft, it was the Olajuwon draft, plus Barkley, Stockton, and a few others. With the information gathering and analysis techniques available today it's overwhelmingly likely that, given the same draft pool, the order would go Olajuwon first, Jordan second, and then Barkley, Bowie, and a couple others might have been duking it out for 3-6. The correct analogy for our choice, then, is not Jordan-Bowie but Olajuwon-Jordan. Either way that goes it has a happy ending.
I believe that's where we are right now. It may not be exactly Hakeem and Michael but I don't think it's any worse than Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor. Sure you'd rather have one of those over the other, but you're not going to be truly disappointed either way. Odds are long that this will be any kind of disaster for Portland.
Issue #2: The Savior?
One of the other main questions is whether either of these players can wear the savior mantle for this franchise. My response to that question is simple: who needs one?
The recipe for strong contenders generally runs like this: 3 bona fide star-level players (one of them probably nearing superstar level), 2-3 really strong multi-faceted role players, 3-4 good teammates who can give you solid minutes through rest or injuries, and the rest upcoming rookies or an old codger or two. Obviously the first category is what we're filling here. We already have two budding star-level players in Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge. Whoever we draft will need to be that superstar-level guy. But there's a difference between that and a savior. LeBron James is the savior in Cleveland and they need one. Dwyane Wade bears an enormous amount of responsibility in Miami. When this team matures our guy won't have to carry even two-thirds of that load. We don't necessarily need the Lone Ranger. We just need somebody to be a focal point and lead the team at one end of the floor or the other. Either player easily fits that bill.
In short, a lot of people seem to be asking, "Are you sure you can win with this pick?" To me it doesn't seem like we can lose.
The Big Issue: So Who Is It?
We've been over the strengths and weaknesses of the individual players ad nauseum here and elsewhere so we won't recap that. As far as the Blazers' needs go it's pretty simple: they could use both. Durant's offensive presence would transform the team. Oden's size and defensive ability likewise. In many ways, if all we've heard is true (and that's a big assumption) it really could be a coin flip. But several factors do slant things.
1. Oden can probably affect the game in more ways. Durant is an extremely versatile offensive player but it basically boils down to if he's not scoring 20+ points per game he's not #1 pick-worthy. He might develop other parts of his game--defense, rebounding, team play--over time but you're taking a risk there. Oden, on the other hand, will probably always have a place because of his defense and rebounding ability. He might also be able to affect the game offensively but even if he doesn't every night he's probably still worth your pick.
Some would argue that Durant's positional flexibility is an example of him being able to affect the game in more ways but I'd actually argue against that. Versatility is one of the buzzwords in the modern NBA but it's usually a buzzword for teams falling short of the top of the mountain, not teams at the apex. "He can play three positions" is a recommendation for a guy you draft 13th, not the guy you draft #1 overall in a franchise-making year. The guy is going to have one position that's more natural to him and by gum with that kind of talent you're going to play him there. Can LeBron, Dwyane, and Duncan play more than one position? Probably they could. But in practical terms it doesn't matter. The important thing is that they absolutely dominate at one position. That's the kind of guy you want to draft here. It makes no difference how many positions either of these guys could play. The only thing that's important is which one they're going to play and how well they're going to do in it.
This brings up another point: are we sure Durant is a small forward? Because if he's a power forward there are conflicts coming down the road with Lamarcus. We know for sure we don't have a center the caliber of Oden and he's welcome to that position all day and all night.
2. The comparisons to existing players, if accurate, are not equal. The main comparisons I've heard for Durant are Dirk Nowitzki and Tracy McGrady. Obviously that's high praise as both are brilliant, MVP-level players. But truthfully I could easily see putting either Nowitzki or McGrady on the Blazers right now and still falling short of a championship, and maybe even short of serious contention. The comparisons I hear for Oden are guys like Tim Duncan and David Robinson. I believe if you put either of those guys on the Blazers at Oden's age we are contending as soon as they mature.
The absolutely best, out-of-this-world case for Durant would be approaching Kevin Garnett's production. Garnett is so amazing in so many aspects that it's hard to predict anyone else getting there. Then again, you have to ask how many championships KG has won...or even how many playoff series.
3. Along those same lines, forwards can be replaced...maybe not at an all-world level, but you can find some reasonable facsimiles out there. Centers cannot be replaced unless you're willing to spend a fortune. And even then you're usually talking Erick Dampier or Adonal Foyle.
4. There's been a lot of talk about the Kevin Pritchard and Paul Allen angles but relatively little about the third man in the triumvirate: Nate McMillan. You've got to believe his voice will be heard in there. And unless he's a very unusual coach he's going to favor the big man. Coaches tend to want players (and styles of play) they can bank on. They may give lip service to "letting the guys loose" but relatively few of them actually do. Secretly ask the coaches out there whether they'd rather have the dominant big man or the scoring machine I bet 90% of them go with the big fella. A predictable, bankable winning style equals job security and respect. Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson equal prescription-strength antacid by the quart.
It may seem that I'm favoring Oden over Durant heavily but remember we're just breaking the tie here. If Kevin Pritchard is to be believed it's going to come down to a hairsbreadth difference between the two. These factors provide that distance. Obviously if there are talent, personality, medical, or commitment issues behind the smokescreen those are going to make far more of a difference than anything I've mentioned here. But all other things being equal--and right now equal is exactly how they seem--my bet is it's going to be Oden.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Well, I've never really
I've generally thought Bird more than anyone else. He doesn't have that court vision yet, although he is a better passer than folks think. Obviously KD is a lot more athletic than Bird (although Bird was an underrated athlete). KD is gonna be a better dribble penetrator, obviously, he's got a tremendous first step, and I think his post game is going to end up better than Bird's. He's got similar shoot-from-anywhere abilities. Bird had that amazing court vision for truly astonishing assists. There's something very Birdish, Hoosierish about KD's game. Like the way he drilled his fundamentals and never stepping foot on a playground court seems very Hoosier, shoot millions of times at the backboard stapled to the barn kind of a background.
They both have an uncanny ability to get clutch offensive boards or steals or whatever. Game-saving hustle plays. I think you're misreading the completeness of KD's game when you say "if he's not scoring, he's not contributing" -- did you see his rebound/block/assist/steal stats?
People think he's not going to get his rebs, but those people didn't watch him play college ball and get those rebs against bigger guys. People forget that he essentially played either C/PF/SF in college, since Texas usually employed a two forward three guard starting unit.
I know it's blasphemy, and the Sports Guy is probably spinning in his grave, but I think KD has a good shot to be a rich man's Bird. You don't pass on a guy who can be a rich man's Bird for a guy who is likely to be somewhere around Patrick Ewing.
as long as you don't insist that
Seriously
by howlingfantods on Jun 24, 2007 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
draft horry
Like Oden, one of my legs is a tiny bit shorter than the other. In my case the difference is only 17mm but I've had chronic back problems because of it since my early twenties. I wear a lift in one shoe. I can only play basketball once a week without my back flaring up. It's not a remote possibility that Oden will have back problems.
I don't understand the Oden/Duncan comparison. It's a stretch to believe that Oden will become that kind of polished offensive player. I've played enough basketball to know that some guys are born with an accurate calculator of speed, position, direction, defender's position and dozens of other variables that allow them to put the ball in the hole a high percentage of the time. A lot of skills can be developed, but I think if you've been playing ball for a few years and you don't have a knack for scoring, then you're never going to be a great offensive player. In the important ways Durant is more like Duncan. Oden could be like Robinson, but Robinson was not central to a dynasty. The Spurs haven't really missed him.
Oden could be like Shaq. Shaq has a lot of rings. Yeah, but Shaq got a lot of help from a couple guys named Kobe and Dwayne.
I hear over and over again that dominant big men win championships. So who was the last dominant defensive center to win a championship without a superstar offensive player? Reverse that question and it's pretty easy to answer.
Brandon is great. But he is not a proven superstar. And despite how optimistic we all are about Aldridge, he's just a promising prospect. I don't think you can bank on either one stepping into the Kobe role if Oden can step into the Shaq role.
Really I think the whole ring counting formula for making a draft pick is mistaken. By that logic we should draft the player most like Robert Horry.
very good arguments...
How many of the last 20 (how about 30?)championship teams did NOT have a dominant big man? Shaq had help from Kobe and Wade? They haven't won anything without Shaq, either. Even Chicago had a very serviceable trio who combined to make for one decent big man. OK, maybe that is stretching it a bit...
The truth is that you need scoring, you need a dominant big man and you need Robert Horry or a reasonable facsimile.
I'm with Dave on this one (isn't that weird?), I don't think you can make a horrendously bad move with either player. At the end of the day, for me, the tie breaker comes down to Oden.
I thought of the Olajuwan/Jordan comparison over Bowie/Jordan quite a while back and then saw someone (sorry, I forget who) mention the same thing in a diary a couple of days ago, and I think it rings true. No one has ever derided Houston for picking Olajuwan over Jordan. No one.
by ken @ Blazer's Edge on Jun 24, 2007 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Ok, but superstars aren't rookies....
I am a little concerned that so much of our theoretical discussions focus on these people as individuals, and not for what they'll bring the team.
Truth be told, my biggest worry with Durant is that his need to be a scoring threat to be worth is money is going to completely throw off the balance that we were starting to achieve in spurts last year between the scoring of Roy, Aldridge, Zach, Jack and whichever bench guys that we'll keep to give support from the second team. Great offensive players do not necessarily create good team play and wins.
In this sense, Durant is a bigger risk certainly... and the missing information that I think we all have is how he'd fit in on an NBA level team. We just don't know, and everyone's imagination is running wild.
I think of Oden's talents - rebounding, defense, scoring up close - and potentially further out according to what we've heard from his workout, and extreme athleticism and power at the center position.
The absolutely most frustrating part of Blazer games in the last few seasons is watching players dribble penetrate and go straight to the basket and score, and/or pick and roll straight to the basket and score, and/or dribble penetrate and pass it off right under the basket and score. I just have to think that Oden solves a lot of those problems just with his presence.
Even if Durant becomes the best defender ever at the small forward position, it will not be a difference-maker in terms of team defense like Oden could be at the center.
I also think that with Oden as the anchor on this team which is starting to really look appealing to players across the league, that we'll be able to entice a lot of good players off of mediocre (and bad teams) to fill in scoring needs if we still need more scoring after drafting Oden.
So, as I try to imagine the players we have with Oden and Durant, my imagination tends to side with Oden. Though I wouldn't be upset with Durant, simply because I can't imagine what our team would look like with him.
durant's skills
Ewing as a blazer
I hate that comparison too though.
Depends on how you mean that.
I say yes. We don't need that, but the kid could do that.
This is a strong reason why i think KP won't pass him up. He's beyond dirk or KG or Tracy. He's a kid who will be at that NEXT level with Wade or Lebron or Jordan. Hardly any players REALLY hit that level because it takes more than just talent to get there.
Game 5 against Detroit
In a few years, will Durant be able to give you that kind of a performance? I'd say yes.
In a few years, will Oden be able to prevent that kind of a performance? I'd say, mmmm...maybe.
Put another way, would LeBron have averaged 25 and 10 in the NCAA? Quite likely. But the main reason some folks don't expect Durant to replicate his college success in the pros is that he's so thin. But remember how skinny Kevin Garnett was as a rookie? Didn't stop him from becoming a beast. And Durant arguably has a broader and more well-developed skill set than KG did as a newbie.
It's not a problem that Durant is versatile
You mention Durant's versatility as a negative (the fact they he can play 4 positions).
I'm curious, do you feel the same way about Roy's versatiliy - he can play 3 positions - SG,PG,SF, depending on our needs or line-up.
If Durant ends up playing some PF, is that really a problem? Why on earth can Aldridge (who's adding muscle/weight every day) not play C when Durant's at PF.
The ability to employ a faster/ smaller line-up can be gold....seee Dallas' win against San Antonio in the playoffs last year.
Basically, I don't see a problem with Durant's ability to play PF, and also why some don't think Aldridge can play Center.....
by jm @ Blazer's Edge on Jun 24, 2007 8:15 AM PDT reply actions
I didn't say it was a problem per se
And I do more or less feel the same way about Roy. Brandon may be able to play the point. He can certainly play the two. His talent is strong enough that we should just put him at whichever he's better at and not mess with him.
To me playing multiple positions is a strong asset for a bench guy...maybe a guy like Cliff Robinson was early in his career. But as Cliffy developed and became a star he started playing more and more at a single position. Hopefully whoever we draft #1 will be a star within a year or two and at that point you won't be switching him around a ton anyway as the team will revolve around him playing a certain role and position.
--Dave
Ideally
That's going to happen naturally if you make him officially a PF on your side -- he'll be so much quicker than opposing PFs that opponents will always try to cover him with Bruce Bowen types when we're on offense, not Dampier types, who he'd just humiliate off the dribble.
Then Durant forces a mismatch when he takes whatever perimeter defender he's got on him down to the low post, which will end up drawing double teams any time he catches it in the box.
by howlingfantods on Jun 24, 2007 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
More Oden thoughts
- Oden is the guy who will bury and throw dirt on any image problems the Blazers may still have. Durant seems like a great guy, but when have we seen a kid seem as real and genuine as Oden? This guy will instantly win over the casual fan.
- I'm not sure Oden needs to be the alpha-dog. It's true that neither he, Brandon, or LaMarcus are big time chest-thumpers, but if this is what we want, we still have two "open" starting positions with which to fill this need. I have hope that when Sergio's English improves, he could help "lead the troops to battle".
- The attribute most correlated to winning hasn't been the presence of a dominant center, it's been FG% allowed. Excellence in this area is highly predictive of regular season and, especially, playoff success. The Bulls w/Jordan were an outstanding defensive team. The Blazers w/Durant? Not so much, although LaMarcus full time at the 4 or 5 would help.
- Offensive abilities of great centers are chronically underestimated. When Shaq was drafted, the prevailing wisdom was that he would average 20 PPG after "a few seasons". David Robinson wasn't pegged as a volume scorer out of Navy. I'm hoping Oden doesn't become a "joyless" scorer, ala Rasheed. Shaq enjoyed humiliating defenders - is this in Greg's makeup?
- Does anyone think there would be enough touches for Sergio+Roy+Durant+Zach+Aldridge? The first four NEED the ball to be effective and even Aldridge is more of a set-up guy than a garbage-man.
- In order for Durant to be championship material, his passing and floor game are going to need to be stellar, especially considering how much time he will command double-teams. So far, we haven't seen this. Certainly this can be developed, ala Karl Malone, but it would be necessary for Durant to do so for the Blazers to get over the hump.
- The Blazer's long term success will revolve around keeping the nucleus together. Both prospects seem like good teammates, but I have a small, unquantifiable suspicion that Oden might "tie it together" in a way that Durant might not be able to.
by Engineering Problem on Jun 24, 2007 8:35 AM PDT reply actions
humiliating defenders
Listen to the quick interviews and how he snarls about someone dunking on him or blocking him. It sounds like he wants to return the favor ten fold.
I'm not that worried about attracting casual
- David Robinson, Shaq, I don't think that's true at all. Those guys were 25+ ppg high volume scorers in college, I remember everyone talking about how both of those guys were going to dominate the league immediately. Guys that people have questions about are the ones who never produced at the collegiate level - either the straight from prep guys or project guys, like Kwame, Dwight Howard, and so forth. Even if you've got good basketball instincts, good footwork, and good hands, some guys never really can develop an effective low post arsenal -- it's just a hard skill to learn.
- FG% allowed. Actually if you ask any stathead, they'll tell you that the differential between offensive and defensive efficiency is the great predictor of wins. Or in other words, winners are good on both ends.
- I imagine that Zach's not long term no matter who we draft. I do think there are enough touches for Sergio, Roy, Durant, and Aldridge. Sergio isn't a volume scorer, Roy already has a predilection for being a setup guy, and LMA hasn't shown that he's a volume scorer go to guy -- he's mostly a junk buckets guy and occasional pick and popper.
by howlingfantods on Jun 24, 2007 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Just add Nate
As for the alpha dog, that doesn't have to be one who's every-ready to chew out the rest of his own pack (like MJ or Kobe). It could be one (like Vince Young, speaking of Longhorns) who can both lead by brilliant example and still be a valued and beloved teammate.
Oden IS the safe pick, and I'd have no problem with it apart from the vexing sight of Durant in that horrific Sonics green.
But KP keeps saying he's not afraid to take a chance.
I think Oden is the safe bet
I'm frustrated with some of the examples you used though. I think Dirk has a weak will. Same with Tracy. What would those player be like with a killer instinct? Talent and drive and starvation?
How is the ability to play multiple positions bad?
Durants roll should be clearly defined, but hte ability to mix it up depending on the team, i think, is a good thing!
Using KG as an example doesn't work either. He had NO team. The other good player on that team was lost due to a career ending injury.
If jordan had no team, do you think he'd have won? He needed the team.
Personally, i think we have the team to win with either player. I think the question is more "who makes it easier, and which style do we want?"
Watching Durant play and the will that he imposes is amazing. I'd forgotten why i had been in the durant camp.
Oh... AND I think durant would be a blazer forever. As much as I love portland, i wonder if Oden will really stick around. Those mentions of LA DO make me nervous. I hope the blazers asked about that and I hope Oden was honest.
Honestly, i like Oden as the pick. I think that's the easiest path, but Durant who WILL reach his potential? I think he'd make sure we'd make it to a championship and never get lazy about winning.
YOu did make a good point about position. I believe the position was mentioned during the interviews and due to his shot Durant would be a small forward. If he was a PF that would be a serious problem. At that point I'd let him go and say 100% oden.
One more thing
He stated he wanted the superstars.
The man has how many rings?
I think there's a definite advantage to having a clearcut superstar and go to guy. Right now that's brandon, but I don't know if he'll be a superstar level.
durant will draw double and triple teams like crazy leaving a lot of people open.
That said, i think Oden and aldridge will SHUT DOWN teams defensively. I think durant will focus on being incredibly good defensively too, because that's what it takes to win.
hmmm... so my final vote?
Durant and Noah
or
Oden
Dave,
That is a point not to be taken lightly. G.O. comes into Portlant commenting that he is tired from the long plane ride. Then he shows up out of shape at what should have been the most important workout of his life and attributes it to the Portland air (good thing he wasn't working out in Denver). I don't understand how being out of shape for this important event does not raise more red flags among Blazer fans; especially after observing the totally constrasting Durant workout. Is that not a lack of commitment indicator?
As an aside and although it's probably not related to commitment (maybe lack of mental preparation), Oden was too nervous at first to be able to perform. Isn't that too a little troubling?
I'm not going to comment much on possible physical prolems. K.P. indicated - although not emphatically - that he was ok physically but declined to discuss the health issues in detail. Why did he not say "there is no bulging disc" and that "his hand is/will be completely recovered"? If there would have been absolutely no physical concerns, I'm sure he would have.
Frankly, I'm worried about these factors but won't lose sleep over them because I'm sure they will be considered by Pritchard and his team. I just hope Allen isn't so giddy about Oden that he ignores them.
I wasn't at either workout,
Auditions are always harder than performances. The performance is the final product. You've practiced, you know your role and you know what is expected. The audition is a mystery. Maybe you know what you can do, but you don't know what the employer expects so it is difficult to feel prepared.
I think Oden will be fine and he is my pick because a frontline of Oden/LaMarcus seems pretty freaking impenetrable. Durant is very intriguing, though.
by shenanigans on Jun 24, 2007 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
185
by TearsforDuckworth on Jun 24, 2007 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Actually I'm pretty sure
I'm just guessing, but I think Oden's agent just snowed Durant's agent here. Oden spent the pre-draft period getting ready for the drills tests at Orlando, without letting Durant's agent being the wiser. So at the last minute, I'm guessing Oden's agent let it be known that Oden was going to run these drills, and Durant probably had to follow (so that he wouldn't be the only one skipping it), but Durant hadn't prepared for these since he didn't think he was going to do it.
by howlingfantods on Jun 24, 2007 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Its a measurement not a drill
by TearsforDuckworth on Jun 24, 2007 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions
The point is,
Not questioning
by TearsforDuckworth on Jun 24, 2007 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Go Oden Please
Bowie was a tall skinny kid.
Our team will have the potential to be so good defensively it's sickening.
When needed, Oden can take over offensively.
He's always taking over defensively though, every minute he's in the game.
Oden does not need to score 20 ppg, it would be nice, but it is not needed. We just had a rookie average nearly 17 points a game. We have another rookie, who looks like he is going to be a fantastic PF, and can score in a variety of ways. Kinda seems like we have 2 potential big time scorers already.
Durant: I like KD, I wish him the best in Seattle, but on the Blazers team, he's going to have to absolutely dominate constantly to have the same impact. Not to mention we will now need to find a good center. Which, this just in, is not very easy to find.
by junit3123 @ Blazer's Edge on Jun 24, 2007 11:11 AM PDT reply actions
Here's the fallacy
This is the fallacy: Bigs win championships. One of the things that bigs do is play interior defense. Hence Bigs must win championships because of interior defense. Oden plays great interior defense, ergo Oden will win championships.
Not true. Mutombo is one of the greatest interior defenders ever. He's got 0 rings. Shaq is an indifferent defender -- he does ok enough being big and taking up space, but he relaxes on defense plenty. But he's one of the most dominant post scorers of all time. Jordan's Bulls didn't have great offense from their bigs, but Jordan was amazing on the post, and used back to the basket low post scoring as his bread and butter in the half court.
Bigs who've won? Kareem, Shaq, Duncan, all great post scorers. Bigs who've never won or only won as a bench guy? Mutombo, Ewing, Alonzo, not great post scorers (Ewing and Alonzo both did most of their damage as face up mid range jump shooters and on dunks and putbacks).
What wins is post scoring, a skill that's either innate (Zbo is just a natural) or can be acquired through serious drilling over years (Tim Duncan, who is just a walking textbook). It's a difficult enough skill that a lot of very athletic and agile players never really get good at it -- again, Zo, Ewing, Dwight Howard is another.
Kevin Durant is already a much more effective post scorer than Oden. Oden has shown flashes that he may end up being effective -- he's got a nice soft touch on his little hooks -- but that's his only low post move so far. But me, I never like gambling that someone will develop skills. I'd much rather gamble that an 18 year old will develop physically like Durant -- that's an easy gamble.
If we take Oden, in a way, we'd be better off keeping Zbo than LMA. Zbo + Oden makes basketball sense -- put the low post guy next to the all-defense guy. Putting two junk-bucket guys together in the frontcourt, one of whom is a pick and pop guy (LMA), and crossing your fingers hoping that either of them develop low post scoring ability... well, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense. We'll end up doing that anyways, just because we heart LMA so much more than Zbo, but it's probably not the right basketball decision.
by howlingfantods on Jun 24, 2007 11:29 AM PDT reply actions
I don't get it...
And as for Mutombo... the guy was a defensive specialist, he has always scored by dunking and everything else that went in mostly had to do with luck. Oden is already showing more of an offensive game that Mutombo ever did.
In any event, Shaq was (and still is even though he is much slower and can't jump nearly as high) as an intimidating presence in the middle which affects how an offense can attack the team. Duncan also affects the offense of other teams in the same way... regardless of block stats, they are difference makers.
Oden's Scoring Ability
In short, I would be shocked if Oden does not average more than 15 points per game next year. Check out this comparison of his productivity as a freshmen to other centers:
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=145&p=2&c=650205
Oden scored more than O'Neal, Ewing, Robinson, or Hakeem as a freshmen in college. He did that without a fully functional right hand, on a team with a lot of scoring options. It is not listed in this analysis, but also Duncan scored less than 10 points a game as freshmen... Oden is not just a defensive player.
2 problems I see, Dave.
2-I think you underrate Durant's defense and reboundimg abilities. He's so much more than just a very efficient scorer.
While Oden is most definitely the safe pick in my mind, Durant is without a doubt the right pick. It is close, but the difference is Durant's superior intangibles.
by JMblazerfan on Jun 24, 2007 11:40 AM PDT reply actions
That may be
--Dave
Durant's Defense
by riles44 on Jun 25, 2007 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Great banter folks.
As we know there is no "right" in speculation. All or none of these thing could come true. Both of these guys are the best looking prospects to come along in a very, very long time (LeBron).
I see this as more of a "choose your own adventure" opportunity.
There is no wrong and right. There are so many pieces to a championship puzzle. Both of these guys could lead you to a championship......but certainly not by themselves.
I love where we would be going with Oden. Defense, undeniable humble personality from our three young stars, interior dominance and paced game, highlighted by a second team who runs like crazy(thank you Sergio).
I love where we would be going with Durant. Intense desire and confidence could be our stamp. The offense being an absolute dream of flexibility. Being able to actively switch different players in to one system. Kill them running, kill them in the half court.
The main point of this post however was "who do we THINK they will choose."
I can't shake the undeniable feeling that Oden is that guy.
I think that KP and the team have tried their darndest to create as much suspense and fuel to the fire that these players are equal in upside. Now, they only thing you can do with the #1 pick is leverage the team taking #2 to get desperate and give something up to take that #1 spot. I think Pritchard wants every excuse in the world to take Durant but unless he convinces the Sonics that they HAVE to have Oden then we just cant let Oden go by.
So theres my prediction - Welcome to the Trailblazers Mr. Greg Oden
Wait . . . WHAT?!?
That's the best single comment I've seen on this whole process.
Shame it's buried so deep into these replies.
[thinking of those "CYOA" books where you constantly have to pick which page to go to next]
For 'Pick Oden', turn to page 183.
For 'Pick Durant', turn to page 127.
Exactly one reply per point.
leapt into my mind a few days ago, and it was a revelation.
Yes, this is (H)akeem/Jordan all over again, and we're Houston.
G_D, that's good to feel. So good. Meow yummy yummies.
On Issue #2: Here's the part I quibble with:
won't have to carry even two-thirds of that load.
We don't necessarily need the Lone Ranger.
We just need somebody to be a focal point
and lead the team at one end of the floor or the other.
I don't think that position NEEDS to be the team's best player, per se.
It helps for authority's sake when it is, as it was with Jordan, Bird, Hakeem and Barkley
(a team will always listen to the guy who's better than any of them).
But I'm not sure Magic was a better BALLER than Kareem, yet was the leader;
I don't think Ewing was EVER a true leader and team hub for the Nix;
and I believe that position on that last L[xxx]rs team was neither Shaq nor Kobe,
but Ron Harper--and it was losing him and having no replacement that shattered them.
And all that stuff about being The Leader also applies to being
the focal point, the man through whom the offense flows.
Applies to all those names I just mentioned, with the possible exception of Jordan.
For all of Jordan being the Big Weapon, that offense flowed through, and was run by,
Scottie Pippen, although Jordan DID occuoy the undeniable role of Leader.
(This was a fairly weird dynamic: The main offensive weapon was also the team leader,
yet someone ELSE was the main focal point of flow and decision as concerns play.)
Point being, we already have that guy, whether or not we add someone who plays better.
Brandon Roy is, and always will be, this team's LEADER,
as well as the focal point through whom the offense flows.
I can see either Oden or Durant being the best-player main weapon
in the arsenal of what is Brandon Roy's team (although Oden would be better for that).
Oden the big horse, Roy the man with the reins in his hands. Works for me.
But can Durant really be the Big Gun on someone else's team?
If we draft him, I could see a real Roy-vs-Durant battle for leadership eventually.
Big Issue - Versatility:
I agree that you don't need versatility out of a stud like Durant or Oden,
not like it helps to have it out of sub-stud main contributors (a #13 pick).
Let me add that it's good to have that--we don't need versatility out of this pick
because we already have it out of a lot of players around him:
Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, probably whatever main asset we add cashing in Zach,
plus some bench role players: Ime, Trout, Martell, and even Raef.
We can fix this pick in place and still be as fluid as we want AROUND him.
Big Issue - Comparable Player: I agree that the best comparison for Durant IS KG.
But I don't have the qualms you do about that; Garnett's been totally Champion-caliber,
just on some very non-Champion teams; that's no knock on him.
He's right there with A.I., LeBron, Sixer Barkley, Shaq-less Kobe, maybe Ewing,
and the other guy I would compare Durant to: Dominique Wilkins.
In fact, the missing point in a lot of this is Durant's pure shot, from all ranges;
if you REALLY want an over-the-top complimentary comparison for Durant,
how about Dominique with Reggie Miller's shot? Does THAT sound like a beast?
Big Issue - The Irreplacable Center: No Foyle/Dampier worries here.
Picking Durant would just mean we'd have to commit to sticking with
LaMarcus at center for the long term, which I can handle.
Those in the LMA-must-be-a-power-forward camp should worry about Durant, though.
Drafting Durant means you can kiss bye-bye any hopes of seeing LMA play the 4.
Without Oden, he's the best center we'll ever have a shot at, and you know it.
Big Issue - Nate: I'm just glad he's here.
Sure, he should have some say in who the pick is, but the important thing is,
AFTER the picking's done, whoever we get is entirely in Nate's hands.
No here's-how-to-play-him meddling from the front office;
just one coach for this team. Give him the players and let him coach.
So I'm not too high on the notion that Nate's preference will be the big swing point;
Nate-the-Decider time begins AFTER the pick, not before it.
Caught one thing that needs adding.
be a focal point and lead the team at one end of the floor or the other."
Yes, with Oden, Roy would be the team's leader and the offensive focal point.
But certainly, Oden's big edge (the one that is THE reason why I support him as the pick)
is his capacity to be not just a killer individual defender,
but the anchor of a very potent TEAM defense.
I could see the team's make-up: Led by Roy on offense,
when the play heads down to the other end of the floor,
it becomes Oden's team, while on defense (which is roughly half the time).
Kind of like the Ben Wallace Pistons model, I suppose.
So, I'm watching some past bulls game
Jordan vs a good big man...
How long does the big man last when running a championship team? they seem to become injured quickly.
Jordan won 6 championships and could have won more if he hadn't dropped out.
On a side note: Man phil is young!!! How did we all get so old?
Another Factor to Consider
But one thing I haven't seen brought up yet on this thread is that there's a reason the Lakers aren't trading Kobe to another Western Conference team, you don't want to make another team you compete directly with better. And the Blazers do not want to do anything in this case to make the Sonics better, and of the two, Oden or Durant, Oden would make the Sonics a much better team than they are now. Durant may just give them problems with their roster and force them into another round of rebuilding. The Sonics have been trying for years to get a serviceable center. It would be foolish to hand them one.
If it were tied, and as I said, I don't really think it is, but if it were tied between the two, I would look at what my division competitor needs and try to keep that away from them if possible.
by kro on Jun 24, 2007 3:19 PM PDT reply actions
Yeah
Still, I think you need to focus more on your team than on the other teams.
it's so funny
either way, the blazers may be making a big mistake.
so i am (as sextus empiricus recommended) holding myself in a state of "mental suspense."
Mistake?
Career longevity
-I think Durant will have a much longer stint in the NBA and that has got to be one of the factors KP will/has looked at. I think there's reason to believe Odens body has already shown some signs that worry me and I'd much rather have KD for 15 years than GO for 8.
I really think it will come down to KPs' opinion of LMA at the 5 which in my humble opinion, could be a top third or forth best centers in the league in two or three years.
by edgeguy42 on Jun 25, 2007 4:53 AM PDT reply actions
Durant's body type
If Oden doesn't develop SKILL on his offensive game, he will probably have a shorter USEFUL career than Durant. Durant's shot, jukes, length, and creativity in creating his shot will last his entire career.
Durant will slow down as every player does, but he'll always be able to shoot. Once Oden's athleticism fades, so will he.
Now, I do not believe Oden will fade out any time soon. 13+ years, QUALITY, great years of baskieball. Durant is 18... with his shot, why couldn't he play for 20 seasons? He might accomplish enough to not play that long, but since he does love basketball so much and is a type of player that lasts a LONG time, it's theoritically possible.
Some might say that Oden could pack more rings into his probably shorter career, but I think it depends on the team he ends up with. No matter which guy we get, the Blazers will be winning championships.
While I expect Pritchard to take any signs of injury troubles in Oden VERY seriously, both players should have long successful careers and I'm not sure if he would take it under big consideration that Durant could play over the age of 35, when Oden might not. But hey, Shaq and Dikemba and even Kevin Willis still play. If Oden stays healthy, even a big man can play forever...
Just not enough real 7 foot centers no more.
Oden for 8 years means he retires at 27? Unless a majory injury occurs, he'll be able to do damage well into his thirties. Durant's career will probably last longer, but both will be so old that they won't be the main component of a team anymore.
Honestly, I'm talking out my nose-hole, cause who can predict how anything will turn out the next 5 seasons let alone 15.
Let's just pick Durant or Oden. Now that we got that decided, we can move from here!
Mortimer
Hate to go back to my roots....but
chasing the heifers, but they wanted nothing to do with him. When they got too adventurous, too close to our prize bull, he would put them in their place...most times not very politely. When I asked him about this, these young bulls who were so quick, looking very good, while the older bull had just stood there, waiting for the young ladies to come to him. He looked at me, smiled, spit and said " Son when it comes to re-production, it is all about the Quality, not the Quantity". Moral of the story? Slow and steady beats Fast and furious; every time
a more athletic Bird, hmm, sounds good
Physically, Durant will be unmatched in the league. Pippen with more scoring. "Dominique with Miller's shot". "A more athletic Bird." Maybe a taller Jordan.
You'd rather have "Ewing"? Oden's no Olajuwon. Olajuwon was graceful, a soccer player. He outquicked the other centers. He was no grunt. Oden looks like a grunt. And both times I saw him play last year, the grunt spent most of his first halves on the bench with foul trouble. He doesn't look like any kind of natural to me.
Durant is obviously, obviously, the one. Made all his shots the first fifteen minutes the other day!
by corbinsupak on Jun 25, 2007 9:36 AM PDT reply actions
Mortimer, you crack-me-up!!
-You NEVER talk out your nose-hole and I enjoy every one of your posts!! Thank-you!!
I think my problem is I just don't have enough info with GOs' medical issues and I need to get a life and stop obsessing over every #@%&*- little thing. Still, doesn't the "bulge" and "25.4mm longer leg" bother you given he's is ONLY 19? Geez, I think of all the pounding (5 miles a night), plus years of practices, scrimmages and that toll his back will have to endure with a 1" shorter leg!! Sure, NO problem now but have you ever heard chiropractors bitch about just sitting on a thick wallet throwing everything off??!! Just multiply that times a thousand times a few years...I think Durant, is "the sure thing."
by edgeguy42 on Jun 25, 2007 12:57 PM PDT reply actions
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