Weekend Thoughts: Relative Value
Every team's fans tend to overrate their own players in terms of value on the open market. It's a prerogative of fandom. But I think over the years Portland fans have been especially prone to over-valuing their players. Maybe it's the one-town, one-team thing. A massive amount of energy and affection flows towards the team when things aren't falling apart. Role players who play reasonably well are loved and never forgotten around here. Sometimes it's hard to remember that they're not necessarily so treasured everywhere, at least not in trade terms.
So to even this out some I wanted to ask you for some general comparisons of trade value for our current players. The idea is simple: take any Blazer player you choose and give me another player you think is of the same relative open-market value.
--It doesn't matter if either player is actually on the block. Neither do you have to worry about whether the Blazers would actually take that other player in a trade. These are not actual trade proposals! We're just making guesses at theoretical value here.
--This has nothing to do with position, size, skill, or anything like that. You might think Jarrett Jack has the same relative value as some low-block, defensive center out there. That's fine.
--Please use only current players in the league and only players from other teams in your comparison. (No comparing Blazers to Blazers.) Also make sure it's a one-for-one comparison.
Basically the template is: "I think [insert name of Blazer here] has about the same relative value on the open market as [insert name of one other player here]." Let us know what factors into your analysis.
You can pick any Blazers you want. I am especially interested in Zach and Jarrett, of course, but I'd also love to know what you think of Ime, Travis, and Martell. Heck, do the whole team if you'd like.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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46 comments
Comments
My comparisons
Jarrett Jack = David Lee or Jameer Nelson
by JasonT on Jun 16, 2007 9:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Continuing....
Joel Pryzbilla = DeSagana Diop or Nazr Mohammed
Brandon Roy = Monte Ellis (low) to Luol Deng (high) range
LaMarcus Aldridge = Josh Smith or Marcus Camby
Sergio Rodriguez = Marcus Williams or Derek Fisher
Travis Outlaw = Hakim Warrick
Ime Udoka = Eric Snow
by JasonT on Jun 17, 2007 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Equal value of Blazers
Rodriguez is equal to Jason williams
Jack is equal to Jameer Nelson
Webster is equal to Gerald Green
Przybilla is equal to Mohammed
Roy is equal to Josh Howard or Ginnobli
Aldridge is equal to Leou Deng, Kirelinko, Al Harrington, or Channing Fry
Outlaw is equal to Varejao
Ime is equal to Monte Ellis
Dikau is equal to Jaque Vaugn
Magloire is equal to Gadzuik
Fred Jones is equal to Willie Green or Nate Robinson
Darius Miles is equal to a fat, mediocre, middle aged water boy who hates his job, fakes long-term injuries, and doesn't show up for work.
by Julian on Jun 17, 2007 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fun!
LaMarcus Aldridge: Emeka Okafor
Jarett Jack: Rajon Rondo
Travis Outlaw: Kyle Korver
Joel Pryzbilla: Jerome James
Zach Randolph: Marcus Camby
Sergio Rodriguez: Jason Maxiell
Brandon Roy: Jason Terry
Ime Udoka: Renaldo Balkman
Martell Webster: Nate Robinson
Analysis: I know Aldridge is great but I think as a rookie he's still a unproven commodity. His pure upside is currently equal to Okafor's consistency.
Jack has shown flashes, but his inconsistency coupled with lack of media attention brings him to about Rondo's level. Both perhaps underappreciated.
Outlaw's athleticism is about par with Korver's shooting in terms of trade value.
I think everyone outside Portland thinks Joel is just another white stiff. So low trade value.
Randolph's baggage and defense lowers his trade value but his offense is hard to ignore so it about evens out to Camby's defense.
Roy is great but at this point he's more about the intangibles than the numbers. Terry's pretty accomplished so about equal here.
by jayseyfield on Jun 16, 2007 10:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
here i go
Zach Randolph: Lamar Odom. Big contract, but serious talent. Won't win you a title, but could be a piece of the title.
Jarrett Jack: Raymond Felton. Both are young prospects but haven't done enough to warrant being valued to high, but because of their potential their still valuable and require more then a scrub or a 2nd round pick or expiring deal to pry away from the other team.
Martell Webster: Gerald Green. Both came out the same year and haven't done a whole lot. Green would actually be valued quite higher cause of the slam dunk contest and some big games he's had.
Sergio Rodriguez: A healthy Shaun Livingston. Before his freak injury, Livingston was considered a big time prospect, but other injuries had slowed him. He shows great skills, but it wasn't all there. Sergio's the same way. He's shown serious passing skills and court vision, now it's a matter of time and work.
Travis Outlaw: Hakim Warrick. Warrick is really just a 6th man, same as Outlaw, but Warrick had a really good first half of season when starting. I believe he averaged 16-9 for a while. Niether is a consistent performer but both are athletes who can contribute, and occasionally a big time performance.
LaMarcus Aldridge: David Lee. If Lee would be let loose he could be a stud, he still is, as averaging a double double off the bench is nasty.. In another year or 2, and after Zbo is moved, Aldridge will finally be known to the world.
by junit3123 on Jun 16, 2007 10:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Give her a try
Roy-Josh Howard: Only other guy I could think of with the diverse skill set. Roy isn't as accomplished, but he is probably a better culture guy and is younger. Both these guys seem to fill holes you didn't know you had.
LMA-Webber: Here I think what you give up in proven ability and skill in Webber you get potential ability and youth with LMA. Personally LMA will probably be a Chris Bosh clone (good thing), but he isn't there yet so Bosh isn't his trade value . . . yet. A deal involving these two players would really be based on the value of experience versus potential to the respective teams.
Webster-Adam Morrision: You are given two brown paper bags with holes in them. You don't know whats inside, but it could be a golden scoring touch, which do you pick? Both the players are too young, and too new to the league to give up on them, but some people want to. I don't think you know what you have with either player, could be good, could be fantastic, could be NBDL. This really comes down to a trade of unknowns.
Udoka-No comparison: Many local players are overvalued because they are just that local, but Udoka really has no reasonalbe return value from any other team. There was something like 64 comments on the recent Oden chat because Oden mentioned he liked LA, and this is just a slight indication of how fiercly local the fans are. This guy is the ultimate hometown player and story. Everyone can relate a little bit to his story, and this town seems to idolize the gritty player (Maurice Lucas anyone). For these reasons, I don't think he has nearly the value anywhere else.
Sergio-Jason Williams circa 98-00: There is a lot of indicators making sergio the next J williams. He certainly has the talent to become a better player than that, but it wouldn't suprise me to see he go down that road. He is still young and any trade including him would be strictly on potential.
by TearsforDuckworth on Jun 16, 2007 11:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Webber
I also think Adam Morrison is too high a trade value for Webster. Morrison may not have had the best year but it was only his rookie year and he was traded too high for the Bobcats to give up on him.
by jayseyfield on Jun 17, 2007 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the thing is
by DominicanAvenger on Jun 17, 2007 5:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
Lamarcus Aldridge is worth Gerald Wallace. This weighs Lamarcus's potential against the proven consistency of Gerald Wallace. I wasn't high on Gerald Wallace initially, but he has shown the poise and confidence that I hope to see Lamarcus one day exhibiting.
Brandon Roy is worth Deron Williams. They are both such an important piece for their respective teams. I believe that execs. around the league have similar feelings about each of these two young players. They both have the leadership qualities that I think league execs. are looking for.
Jarrett Jack is worth Luke Ridnour. They have both proven to be solid floor leaders and consistent decision makers. They seem to know what their teams need and when they need it, whether it be scoring or passing. Both lack the defensive prowess that is needed to be a complete player.
Sergio Rodriguez is worth Tyrus Thomas. Both are unproven freakish athletes. Tyrus can jump and Sergio has the vision. They both have glaring weaknessnes and need time to improve. They are both probably very intriguing to execs. around the league and I'm sure they will be watching the maturation of both very closely.
Darius Miles is worth Bonzi Wells (equal to a coupon for a free chalupa). Well, they are both carcinogenic tumors that will never sign another NBA contract. They are both nonexistent to their respective teams. They both flushed their potential down the drain and will live with that regret until long after all of their money is spent.
by GimmeIme on Jun 17, 2007 12:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Deron Williams
Bonzi is worth more than Darius because he can at least still play. (and he's proabably going to stay with the Rockets)
Jermaine has more trade value than Randolph because he is much better athlete as well as a superior defensive player. The downside on Jermaine is his history of injuries as well as his contract which is larger than Randolphs.
Sorry if I sound like I'm being hard on our players but I'm approaching this from what the rest of the NBA thinks of our players.
I think you have to put it this way; would Chicago trade Tyrus Thomas for Sergio and vice versa? Or would Utah trade Roy for Deron Williams and vice versa?
Chicago would never trade Thomas for Sergio, Portland might consider it. With Roy and Deron I think both teams wouldn't trade.
by jayseyfield on Jun 17, 2007 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zach and Jarrett:
Zach: Vince Carter
Jack: Smush Parker
by ranma on Jun 17, 2007 12:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oooooohhhhh that's mean
Smush is a good story but an AWFUL point guard. If we traded Jack to the Lakers for Smush straight up we would be the laughingstock of the entire UNIVERSE.
I think Jack has pretty good value around the league; he had the 3rd best year for 2nd year PGs. If we disregard his defense and lack of fast break ability, he had a WONDERFUL, FUNDERFUL year.
I won't be surprised when he's traded, because he DOES have such good value. Lotsa teams really need a decent PG, and I hope we don't throw him away for nothing.
But man... Smush... I hope Jack don't see that!
I agree with Z-Bo = Vince, but not with general fans. Vince is way mad overrated, and Z-bo underrated because of his percieved "rep".
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Jun 17, 2007 2:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't personally think
by ranma on Jun 17, 2007 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh...
by trevor on Jun 17, 2007 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here I go
Zach: Rip Hamilton
Roy: Chris Paul
Lamarcus: Dwight Howard (Trust me they'd consider it if we offered, they're both still mostly potential)
Jarrett: Jameer Nelson
by Earl on Jun 17, 2007 1:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Overvaluing.
No comparison there.
by trevor on Jun 17, 2007 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
Now if you are saying Howard will be better because he dunks harder and can jump very high... that's just ridiculous. So, why is Howard better or going to be better?
by Earl on Jun 17, 2007 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Relative value... based on efficiency
Zach - Elton Brand, LAC (without the "blocking" capability)
used: http://www.nba.com/statistics/player/Efficiency.jsp
Jarrett - Delonte West, Bos
Ime - Dahntay Jones, Mem or Marquis Daniels, Ind (healthier & with 3pt capability)
Travis - Rudy Gay, Mem (older)
Martell - Fred Jones, Por (same output but taller)
by Eugenefan on Jun 17, 2007 1:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, You said no
Martell - Antoine Wright, NJN
by Eugenefan on Jun 17, 2007 1:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Threw 'em in a mixer...
Zach Boozer = Carlos Randolph
Jarrett Bell = Raja Jack
by Dr Dave on Jun 17, 2007 6:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
are you guys serious
zbo=p.gasol-both compilers not winners
aldridge=no joke r.wallace with class
jack=d.stoudamire in time
webster=d.curry
d.miles=joe barley cares
dickau=s.brooks
lafrentz=charles smith
outlaw=s.swift
f.jones=flip murray
pryzbilla=w.purdue
udoka=pete myers
sergio=t.j.ford with better court vision
by fatty on Jun 17, 2007 7:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
umm
For example... LMA is worth MORE than rasheed to a team and if we traded him ALL teams would take him over rasheed. Skill wise he's not up there yet, but value wise, due to potential, he's worth more.
by ratbastird on Jun 17, 2007 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Several nice calls.
The Roy-Gordon comparison is about the most valid I've seen yet. Gordon is known for hitting huge shots in pressure situations and for doing all the little things. I can see Roy fitting that exact role for the Blazers once they become playoff fixtures again.
Jarrett Jack may equal Damon Stoudamire in time, but Damon was never a championship point guard.
Przybilla-Perdue and Miles-Carroll: OUCH. But true.
by trevor on Jun 17, 2007 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and for all you guys
by fatty on Jun 17, 2007 7:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ok so...
by Earl on Jun 17, 2007 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My .02
Outlaw = Peja Stojakovic, NOK: I think the Hornets would happily swap the injury-prone Peja for a player with Travis' potential.
Randolph = Carlos Boozer, UT: Clones. 20-10 guys with little defensive presence. Seriously doubt that Sloan would be interested, however.
Webster = Ryan Gomes, BOS: Maybe Danny Ainge can once again be persuaded to swap for one of Portland's shaky lottery picks.
by knickfan on Jun 17, 2007 8:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
MORE overvaluing.
Carlos Boozer puts up his numbers for a playoff-contender against the team's best defenders. He played his best ball against an excellent Spurs defense. Zach Randolph puts up his numbers for a lottery team with no offensive flow because of his glaring inefficiency. The numbers are similar, but their games are completely different.
Ryan Gomes is an excellent hustle player who forces his way onto the court because of his effort and rebounding. Webster looks good when he's shooting 3s unguarded.
by trevor on Jun 17, 2007 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno....
I get where this going - in that hometown fans will always put their players on a pedestal. It's natural and definitely part of being a fan.
But I guess, part of "valuing" talent (not over or under valuing) is considering their supporting cast. Carlos Boozer has Deron Williams feeding him the ball, Andrei Kirilenko attracting some sort of defense, and Mehmet Okur stretching out the low-post help defense. If you put Zach in a similar situation, he might even be MORE effective. When the Blazers played the Jazz, Randolph and Boozer had a pretty awesome head-to-head matchup, so it's tough to say if we're actually OVER-VALUING in this situation.
by Champs2009 on Jun 19, 2007 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm gonna try
Jack - Ridnour ( completely different styles, but in my opinion PGs that are more suited for backup roles and may start for bad teams)
Zach - Antawn Jamison ( Big offense, no defense guys, off court issues and lenght of contract decrease Zachs's value)
Martell - Adam Morrison ( Busts with a chance to redeem themselves)
LMA - Bargnani
Roy - Rudy Gay ( Gay's upside is higher but Roy is a definite winner
Sergio - Gerald Green ( Completely different obviously, but both players showed flashes of tremendous potential but also a lot of inconsistency)
Outlaw - Sasha Pavlovic ( Outlaw's uside is higher , but the downside is lower)
I'd probably choose all the blazers players over the others but this would be the homer in me choosing.
by Bruno on Jun 17, 2007 8:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the day
by fatty on Jun 17, 2007 10:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A lot of guys
It's finding someone who can stay in front of Parker that's the trick.
by timg56 on Jun 18, 2007 6:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay... what the heck
Zach = Jamison, Carter, Gasol (I think boozer is worth more than zach)
Webster = Smush Parker
Roy = Chris Paul (injured a lot and fall off second year), Josh Smith
Aldridge = Tough... He's potential and it's high, but he showed that he can be VERY good if healthy. Berganoni seems to be the closest match in value, i think. That'll change this year as aldridge proves himself more.
Oden = Lebron (valuewise remember. Neither the cavs nor us would trade but i'm willing to be he's the only player we'd considering trading for)
Ime = ummm... khryapa. We love him but i don't think he's that valuable to anyone else.
by ratbastird on Jun 17, 2007 11:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No one else has said it
I can pretty much agree with what was said by everyone else here so no need to reiterate. But I didn't want to be left out of the conversation.
Hows this:
Nate McMillan = Byron Scott
by tominhawaii on Jun 17, 2007 11:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Nate McMillan =
by Earl on Jun 17, 2007 12:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I can see that
by tominhawaii on Jun 17, 2007 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the best thread... thanks
i agree with fatty: too many homers in homy portlandville; so this post rocks.
please, all fans be put on notice! we must move fast to win now. the window will open quickly. if we wait (for, say, potential), our franchise player will walk; the national media will find another cute name for us; and portland will become a ghost town.
i think kp knows this.
by bandwagonfan since 72 on Jun 17, 2007 7:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting exposure
The thing that jumps out at me most is the lack of focus on defense. With Zach that is a non-factor except for Marion comparisons. With Roy at 6-6 able to guard big guards and some smaller and Aldridge playing outstanding defense for a rookie big their values must increase.
We certainly did expose our prejudices. Nice job.
Oh and I would trade Martell for Devin Harris. Both are short-timers with their present team unless they show a lot soon. There are very few players I would trade Aldridge, Roy and Sergio for right now.
I do think the Blazers and their fans (yes, ia m one) need to be patient. I was here when we got the #1 pick and drafted Bill Walton. I was also ready to despair by the spring on 1976. It takes bigs some time to get good and it takes a couple or three years for young teams to learn how to win like the Spurs know. Progress is what I want to see for now.
by lee3022 on Jun 17, 2007 11:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow, Id have to say
Ill give it my best shot without repeating any previous posts.
1 Zach - Rashard Lewis........mostly one dimensional player who could play a fantastic second fiddle.(like the Antwan Jamison comparison better)
- B Roy - Andre Iguadala....promise, but only foolish GM's would build around just them.
- Nate McMillon - Lawrence Frank.......Good Young Coaches but, everyone believes that they should be seeing more results than they are getting.
- Jarrett Jack - Jose Calderon......Young but has shown glimpses of being a real NBA player.
- LaMarcus - Randy Foye........Proven almost nothing but stock just keeps rising.
Alright there it is. it may not be pretty but I was trying to go strictly on stock.
jans
by DropstepJ on Jun 17, 2007 11:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You should ask Blog-a-Bull
Anyhow...here's my shot:
Jack - Childress or Pietrus -- decent players at their position, with some flaws; not sure if they're starters or backups.
Aldridge - Bynum -- Tons of potential, talented big man, would bring back a lot in a trade. Aldridge seems more likely to realize his potential, but Bynum has more value as a true center.
Roy - Tyrus Thomas -- I think Roy is undervalued in the market. Many in the media view him as the "default" rookie of the year, and those perceptions tend to bleed over. I think both of these guys are viewed as potential all-star players who are limited in some way (Thomas by lack of an offensive game, Roy by a perceived lack of athleticism).
Zach - Jason Richardson -- Both perceived as selfish, mostly offensive-minded players with knee problems. Zach gets a knock for his off-court problems, but he plays a more valuable position.
Webster - Adam Morrison -- I tried not to pick players who someone had already picked, but I can't think of anyone else for Webster. Both highly touted coming in, both are questionable as NBA players at this point. Maybe you could find some GM who was high on their potential, but otherwise it would be hard to get much of anything for them at this point.
Sergio - Rondo -- Both are young, largely unproven PGs who have shown serious potential. I don't think either Boston or Portland would part with these guys. Not sure what the rest of the league would give up for them, but you would get some value.
Outlaw - Jason Maxiell -- Young guy with potential, but the look of a solid rotation player for years to come. I think both guys still have some upside that GMs might overpay for, but they are starting to look like known quantities.
by HarryManback on Jun 18, 2007 7:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll give my effort.
Dan Dickau - Rick Brunson
Sergio Rodriguez - Antoine Wright
Brandon Roy - Richard Hamilton
Fred Jones - Juan Dixon
Travis Outlaw - Sasha Vukojic
Ime Udoka - Luke Walton
Darius Miles - Vin Baker
Zach Randolph - Rasheed Wallace
LaMarcus Aldridge - Andrea Bargnani
Raef Lafrentz - Adonal Foyle
Joel Przybilla - Dale Davis
by EnglandDan on Jun 18, 2007 1:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good topic
Zach is like a Pau Gasol. You notice how there was all that buzz about him and then nobody really bit? He's like Zach in that he's overvalued by his own team/city. On the new-look Blazers, I'd be surprised if Zach's numbers ever approach his 2006-2007 stats. I think his value is only going to decrease as time passes.
by leeroyjenkins on Jun 18, 2007 2:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Aldridge
by robrun2 on Jun 18, 2007 2:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Point proven
Zach = Stephen Jackson. Selfish head-cases just as likely to put up a double-felony as a double-double. Marion? Please. Matrix is a great defender and rebounder with all-around game. Multiply Zach's vert by 10 and it still doesn't equal Marion. Boozer? Never. Booze has better post moves, is a rebounding machine, doesn't have a rep for being selfish, and no off-court problems with drugs, hookers, and guns. Carter? Odom? Jermaine? Rashard? Homer-goggles are strong, ladies. Zach's reputation is crap league-wide, as is his trade value.
Roy = Tony Parker. Funny that the one guy on the team that has great value is the one that seems to be most undervalued here.
Aldridge = Tyrus Thomas. Flashes here and there, but still hasn't proven squat. Had exactly 4 games last year of 20+ pts and 7 games of 10+ rebs. All potential until he proves he can be a consistent force, which he hasn't even come close to doing yet.
Webster = Trajan Langdon. Langdon is currently starring for CSKA Moscow, which is where Webster will be in 2 years.
Outlaw = James White (SA). They can jump. Woop de damn doo. Barely deserves to be on a roster.
Jack = Jacque Vaughn. Will never be more than a 3rd PG.
Ime = Danny Fortson.
Sergio = Travis Diener.
Przybilla = Jeff Foster.
Lafrentz, Miles, Jones, Dickau = Ha Seung Jin, Jalen Rose, Pat Burke, Billy Donovan.
By the way, no player has been more overvalued by Blazer fans than Greg Oden. You're all setting yourselves up for a big, nasty fall if you actually believe your fantasies about "We'd only CONSIDER Lebron for that pick."
Complete, utter, ridiculous foolishness. There are at least 15-20 NBA players that Portland should trade the pick for, and another 10 on top of that they should consider.
by wetblanket on Jun 19, 2007 1:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Homers?
We are pretty iffy though. We'd be lucky to get anything back for Miles, much less a basketball player. I say we ship him to Memphis in a custom Grizzlies jersey and see if they're confused enough to keep him. If we all chip in we can overnight him.
As for Zach, it's rough. Those that compare him to Carlos Boozer are clearly insane and not to be trusted. Gasol would be a good fit if not for the beard. That beard is awfully shady. Also, there's a rumor that he speaks Spanish.
Jack? Did anybody see him play last year? Maybe you could compare him to Eric Snow: slow, seemingly disinterested, with a deadly jumper when he's unguarded from the free-throw line in.
Martell=Whitman's Sampler.
by nightbluefruit on Jun 19, 2007 8:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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