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There's been a fair amount of mail lately and I'm trying to get back to everyone.  But Marc writes an interesting set of questions applicable to all.  I'm going to try to answer to the best of my knowledge and maybe you folks can help out where I miss something.

I, and I believe many other fans, would welcome a discussion of what type of trades would be consistent with the Blazers' salary cap. For this purpose, I would like to understand the effect on trade possibilities of

(1) allowing Magloire to go elsewhere,
(2) persuading Miles to retire,
(3) having our obligation to Derek Anderson expire
(4) withholding an offer to Outlaw until a trade has been completed, and
(5) offering or accepting a draft choice as partial trade consideration.

  1.  Jamaal's salary last year was $8.3 million dollars.  We are under no obligation to re-sign him and if we do not that amount will come off of our salary cap.
  2.  Darius was a little cheaper than Jamaal...$7.75 million.  (That buys a lot of Krispy Kremes.)  The league's collective bargaining agreement includes a provision that if a player is declared medically unfit to play at least one year after sustaining an injury he may retire and although the team still pays his salary it does not count against the cap.  This would be a huge boon to the Blazers.
  3.  Our obligation to Derek WILL expire and knock $9.75 million off of the cap.
That's all the good news.  The bad news is that last year we paid $73.7 million in salaries which is WAY over the cap.  The salaries we know are coming off the books (including Jamaal and DA but not Darius) leave us at $57.6 million.

The salary cap gets recalculated every summer (it's a percentage of league revenue).  Sometimes it jumps, sometimes it falls.  It's somewhat reasonable to expect it to be in the ballpark of the season before.  And this year's salary cap was $53.1 million.  Optimists will say, "If Darius retires that knocks us down to $50 million or so...we're under!"  Pessimists will point out that the $50 million figure does not include retaining Travis, re-signing Ime, or paying our draft pick (which we might want to do).  Long story short, we'll be a lot closer to the cap but even if Darius' salary gets wiped we won't be under.

  1.  If I recall correctly this doesn't matter.  You can't really cheat the cap like that because players you might retain have something like a ghost salary on the cap until you either sign them or renounce them.  In any case since Outlaw is a restricted free agent there is a strict time limit on matching any salary he's offered.  We can't wait until the summer's over to decide.
  2.  For the most part (there's a little arcana in there) draft picks do not count against the cap until they are selected, then they count at their salary.
Marc continues:
These issues would shed light on, among other things,

(1) our ability to sign Rashard Lewis without cooperation from Seattle,
(2) our possible trading partners for Zach and
(3) the options available to Kevin P with respect to utilizing our four second round picks or packaging them with players to acquire a second, high pick. [Yes, sending Zach and Martell, and Jarrett and four second round picks to Seattle for its pick would be pure day dreaming, but fantasizing about acquiring both Oden and Durant can be quite pleasant] With a notable lack of success, I have read the collective bargaining agreement on this subject and tried to figure out the answers for myself by applying  published team salary information.

  1.  Can't happen.  There's no way we could get that far under the cap. If Rashard were willing to sign for the mid-level exception (around $5 million a year plus raises) we could do that but I don't think he loves us that much. (Though as we get better more and more people will again.)
  2.  See the post below this one.  Basically we'll be making all trades as an over-the-cap team.  Even if Darius retires that won't be until the end of the summer.  By then we'll have made a decision on Travis and probably on Ime also.
  3.  Second round picks have value, but only in limited ways.  They are all but useless when stacked up against living, breathing talent.  If you went and offered all four picks as a package for a player already in the NBA you wouldn't even get a Wal-Mart level guy.  It'd be more like garage sale pickings.  However they do have some value on draft day.  One obvious scenario is if a player a team covets is still left on the board but they fear he'll be snapped up before their pick comes up.  Second rounders can also occasionally be used to trade up into the late first round.  First round picks have guaranteed salaries attached.  Second round picks do not.  Sometimes a team will not see anybody left that they're willing to spend a guaranteed $5-6 million on over the next four years.  But they can't just skip their pick.  (I suppose they could just let the time expire but that would be bad form.)  So they will trade their first rounder for some second rounders.  That way they can still get a couple prospects but they aren't locked into paying them if they don't pan out.  Obviously this never happens with high first round picks because there are always desirable players left on the board at 10 or 13.  Maybe you could trade into the low 20's if you're lucky.  Lastly, second round picks can often be parlayed into future second round picks.  This never happens with first rounders because they're more crucial (and could even end up lottery selections).  But GMs often play fast and loose with their second round picks because, frankly, they just don't matter as much.  Thus KP describes them as far more "liquid", meaning moveable.

    In short, adding four second rounders to that trade package of Zach, Martell, and Jarrett is like going into the card shop to trade for a Michael Jordan rookie card and saying, "I have this Shaq card, a Kobe rookie, a Kevin Garnett...ooooh...and four mint condition Shecky Grubermans!"  Unless the card shop owner is a big Shecky fan you're unlikely to get much traction.

Hope this helped!

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments

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Derek Anderson
Isn't Derek Anderson already off our salary cap?  I thought that because of the amnesty provision of the last CBA we were able to remove him from the salary cap,  but we still had to pay him.  So I think our financial obligation to him ends, but this will not affect our cap situation.

by zach2046 on May 25, 2007 8:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The amnesty provision
means his salary doesn't count to luxury tax contributions (IIRC we are not paying any luxury tax), but he still counts against the cap.

by EngineerScotty on May 25, 2007 8:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

beam it up
Scotty you are correct on zach's question

by pookeyguru on May 25, 2007 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Renouncing first round picks

Teams have to select somebody for their first round pick (though they could always sell the pick, or even trade it for nothing I suppose).  I've never heard of anybody passing in the NBA draft and do not know if it is possible.

However, teams are under no obligation to sign their first-round picks.  They can always renounce them, in which case the player becomes a UFA; and there is no salary cap affect.  (Teams can also neglect to sign a first-rounder or second-rounder; Joel Freeland is a player the Blazers still have rights to but who is not under contract with the team.  The Blazers held the rights to Arvydas Sabonis for years before he finally came to the NBA).

by EngineerScotty on May 25, 2007 8:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

U can do that?
I knew you could renounce rights to a 2nd rounder but didn't know if you could to a 1st rounder. I see how thought, when you think about it, because technically from a NBA perspective a 2nd rounder regardless of the money, is just like a 1st rounder. Still most teams won't do that. 1st round picks are very valuable (especially in terms of money).

by pookeyguru on May 25, 2007 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think
you underestimate the value of having 4 2nd round draft picks.  You're viewing them as a package.

Individually, they take on a lot more value.  While it's a cute idea that they are these worthless trading scraps, the reality is that every year someone gets serious value out of the second round.  Sometimes, a team will pick a Euro and a few years later they'll come into the NBA causing everyone to say 'where the hell did they get this guy?'

They got him from the second round!

One need only look at the drafting of the San Antonio Spurs to get an idea of what I'm talking about.

If they were so worthless, Dave, I don't think management would have brought on a guy like John Gabriel specifically to create value with those picks.

I for one think that we'll look back on this summer years from now and be glad that we had at least one of those 2nd round picks.

- Sam

by Samuelson on May 25, 2007 10:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think
you overestimate the TRADE value of 4 2nd round picks.  Yes, you can occasionally find a player who sticks in the NBA.  Yes, you can very, very occasionally find a star.  But if you figure that every year you get...what...two role players out of the second round who can actually play, then you're talking about trading someone a 4/15 chance of drafting a role player.  I don't think you're going to sway a lot of GMs with that package.

by HarryManback on May 25, 2007 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think
what harry said is accurate.

by pookeyguru on May 25, 2007 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is a deep draft
and some players who've slid to be projected 2nd round picks are really not half bad. reyshawn terry, nick fazekas, jared dudley, demetris nichols, aaron brooks, some europeans... some of these may really help in limited roles.
ignacio

by ignacio on May 25, 2007 12:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Harry is essentially correct
We are not talking about the value in using second round picks here, but the value in trading them.  They can net you good players from time to time and we can all name multiple examples over the years.  But that doesn't mean that other folks will be knocking down your door to get them or give you a lot of value in trade for them.

--Dave

by Dave on May 25, 2007 12:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't even know...
where our second rounders lie, but... is it feasible to trade two of them for a number 23 pick, the other two for a number 25 pick and then trade those two for a number 17 pick?

(Just throwing random numbers out there for effect)

by ken on May 25, 2007 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

In my estimation
that would be stretching the limits of credulity.  But not so far that they break entirely I guess.

Our second rounders are the 37th, 42nd, 52nd, and 53rd overall picks in the draft.  New York and Utah (23 and 25) would have to not want anybody until 14-17 picks later.  New Jersey being willing to trade 6 spots down for an extra pick seems more doable.

My guess is we'd be more likely to get Detroit's 27th pick or Phoenix's 29th pick via some second-round package.

If you're willing to throw a cheap, young player into any of these deals the prospects of moving up become greater.

--Dave

by Dave on May 25, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

See, I didn't realize...
they were that late in the draft.  Yeah, my scenario is highly unlikely.

by ken on May 25, 2007 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Phoenix
might sell both of their picks now too now that they didn't get a top 5 pick. Always possible but you never know. And if they don't need a 2nd rd pick they can always juse renounce the rights to any player they pick there. Robert Sarver is a much worse owner in alot of ways than Paul Allen used to be. That's really saying something.

by pookeyguru on May 25, 2007 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trading cards
Man, I've been looking for a Shecky Gruberman for years.  And you have 4!

by timg56 on May 25, 2007 5:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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