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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Jersey Contest Playoffs: Seattle Game

Here are the predictions for tonight's game:

Ssa400
Final Score:  Blazers 92  Sonics 100
Bonus Question:  Who will be the Blazers' leading assist man?  Roy
Statistical Predictions:
Fred Jones' Shot Attempts- 5
Magloire Points- 8
Schenscher Minutes-8
Total Blazer Free Throw ATTEMPTS 29

Fromagnon
Final Score:  Blazers 85   Sonics 88
Bonus Question:  Who will be Portland 's leading assist man? Jack
Statistical Predictions:
Fred Jones' Shot Attempts-- 9
Magloire Points-- 12
Schenscher Minutes-- 12
Total Blazer Free Throw ATTEMPTS -- 20

Jorga
Final Score:  Blazers   95   Sonics  98
Bonus Question:    (With eyes closed she picks a name from a hat and it's .... Jarrett Jack.)
Statistical Predictions:
Fred Jones' Shot Attempts--   6
Magloire Points--  12
Schenscher Minutes--  11  
Total Blazer Free Throw ATTEMPTS  22

DrawingJeremy
XXXXXX

Final Score: Blazers 97 Sonics 98
Bonus Question: Who will be Portland's leading assist man? Jones
Statistical Predictions:
Fred Jones' Shot Attempts-- 6
Magloire Points-- 10
Schenscher Minutes-- 22
Total Blazer Free Throw ATTEMPTS - 17

That's right, in a stunning turn of events, after making it all the way to the final four Jeremy no-showed this prediction.  It's a move that's sure to make Saregister pull his hair out, because had Jeremy done this last game instead of this one Saregister would still be alive.  Nevertheless things happen like they happen.  The good news is that the other three contestants get a free pass to the final three.  Their scores are up in case they get a perfect 100 and win a jersey on the spot.

I can't help but think Jeremy is going to be kicking himself.

Upon further review I have made an executive decision. I have received Jeremy's forward as he stated in the comments section. Although there's no way to conclusively prove its veracity it seems unlikely that he's fibbing because:

1. We still have no further information on Roy or the game so there's no advantage waiting this long.

2. If he were waiting to see others' predictions the smart thing to do would be to pick Jack with the bonus as two others did, while he went out on a limb and picked Jones. Also it would be stupid to pick Schenscher's minutes 10 higher than anybody else and Blazer free throws 5 lower.

3. After surviving a gruelling month and a half by dint of your superior picking it would be downright stupid to take that kind of a foolish chance.

4. It just doesn't seem likely that Jeremy or any of the contestants left would lie or try to gain an advantage like that. Even though the site is growing we really are more or less family here still. While I'm sure Jeremy would like to win I can't imagine him taking pride in winning through cheating. I also can't imagine him being really upset if Jorga, Fromagnon, or Ssa won either.

5. I bet if I polled the other three contestants they'd say to let his predictions in.

In short, it just makes sense that he's telling the truth. So employing my best Judge Judy-like powers of discernment I'm allowing the picks. Why? 'Cuz I'm the boss, applesauce.

Also though in true King Solomon fashion I'm going to rule that if Jeremy does survive the night and if his opponents wish his Monday predictions will be shown to them by 9 a.m., well before they have to post, not that that's a huge advantage for them either, but there you go.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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What Happened!!!
I emailed you several hours ago, I'm going to send you my copy right now.

by drawingjeremy on Apr 14, 2007 4:20 PM PDT reply actions  

Here's the content of the email I sent, I just
forwarded you my copy to Dave w/ time stamp, etc.  It was sent at 1:09 PM this afternoon.

I wish I knew if Roy was playing, but suppose we're all in the same boat on that!  Tough predictions w/o knowing though, really tough.

  Final Score:  Blazers 97  Sonics 98

  Bonus Question:  Who will be Portland's leading assist man? Jones

  Statistical Predictions:
  Fred Jones' Shot Attempts-- 6
  Magloire Points--  10
  Schenscher Minutes-- 22
  Total Blazer Free Throw ATTEMPTS - 17

by drawingjeremy on Apr 14, 2007 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow . . . lost emails . . . HEY!
"DrawingJeremy" = Karl Rove?!?
Tell 'em Large Marge sent ya.

by QualityPie on Apr 14, 2007 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

DrawingJeremy = Karl Rove?!?
Funny, but I sure hope not!!!!  I wouldn't mind his intellect though, just may not be 100% on board with it's application.

On the missing email topic, I just heard back from Dave, it sounds like I'm in, now Freddy Jones don't let me down!

Off to the game...

by drawingjeremy on Apr 14, 2007 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

To:BlazerBandit
I'm off to see the game.  I hope when I return we will find that it has been officially confirmed that I was indeed participating in the contest this evening and that you are still in the running for the shirt.  If not, all I can say is I am happy to have made it this far, did send a prediction email early this afternoon which I have a copy of in my inbox, and that I'm sorry that you didn't win the shirt.

Dave, as I said in the several emails I have sent you over the last hour and change, I really appreciate all you do on this site and will bow to your decision regardless.

by drawingjeremy on Apr 14, 2007 5:37 PM PDT reply actions  

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