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The Point Guard Piece

I've been meaning to do a piece on our point guards for some time now but so much has been said in the comments (and just about everywhere else) pro and con about all of them that I'm not sure there's much left to say.  So instead of doing a full run-down of them all I decided to kind of sum up the whole issue in a way I think everybody can accept and take as hope for the future.  This summary is going to be slanted towards optimism and feeling good about all of these guys and that's intentional.

For each of our four PG's (I'm not counting Roy yet because frankly if he ever moves to full-time point all of this is moot) I'm going to list all the good things I can think of about them...the reasons they're on this team.  I'm also going to list one (and only one...mostly) area of concern.  There are, of course, more weaknesses than that for all of them but I'm only concentrating on the most pressing.

So here we go.

Steve Blake

Why He's Here:

Blake is here because he's a dependable, multi-purpose point guard, kind of like a utility infielder in baseball.  He's decent at most everything he does.  He's averaged better than a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio the last couple of years.  He's a career 37% shooter from distance.  He knows how to run the offense whether you're playing a running game or setting up the ball.  He knows how to get other people the ball in places they can score and what's more he relishes doing just that.  He doesn't need to touch the ball, dominate the floor, or even score to be effective.  He's a very nice complementary player for whatever stars you have.  He won't hurt you when he's out there.  You can start him or bring him off the bench with equal confidence.  He'll work hard and fight for his position.  He shoots well from the free throw line and plays decent defense.  Basically you don't have to worry about him.  This is a real asset on a young team and may very well be just what the doctor ordered in 3-4 years when every other position in the starting lineup is likely to be filled by a star player.

What Concerns Me:

The fact that you know just what you will get from Blake is his greatest strength but also his weakness.  What you see is what you get, and with minor fluctuations that's probably all you're ever going to get.  Blake is never going to score 15 and get 8 assists for a whole season.  (Though on the right team I guess he could approach that assist number.)  He's a pair of fours in the hole playing poker.  That's a good hand to bet on but you have to be aware when all the cards are out there several hands will beat it.  The question playing Blake is not what you have, but what you might be giving up by not going with someone else.

Jarrett Jack

Why He's Here:

We've seen enough good performances from Jarrett that we're starting to demand more, but it's easy to forget that this guy was picked in the mid-20's a couple years ago.  There was no guarantee that he'd even make it.  He has worked very hard under some trying conditions and I don't think anyone doubts he will have a nice career in this league.  One of his greatest strengths is his ability to score with little warning.  When his confidence is high he becomes very hard to stop.  He doesn't need to hold the ball much to get in rhythm.  You can pass it to him and then three seconds later the ball is in the hoop.  He's a 45% shooter so far in his career which is very good for a guard.  He shoots extremely well from the foul line and his three-point shot is improving.  He might well have the entire offensive package.  He has a solid body and is unlikely to get pushed around.  He can use it to great effect offensively and if he learns to move his feet well he could become a nice defensive player as well.  It's hard to tell what kind of floor general he is given the Blazers' offense last year.  He seems competent in setting up the halfcourt offense but he needs more time out there before we know.  We know enough to say he doesn't hurt you.  At worst he probably turns out to be Steve Blake with a much higher scoring potential.  He could turn out to be one of the most dependable all-around guards in the league.

What Concerns Me:

There's no doubt Jack's best attribute right now is his scoring.  He could turn out to be one of those guys who can't contribute to his fullest (or can't contribute happily) unless he's a focal point.  It's unlikely he will be an offensive focal point on this team in the future.  If he's wasted in a supporting role he won't belong here.

Sergio Rodriguez

Why He's Here:

Sergio undoubtedly has the highest ceiling of any of our four guards.  He's an incredibly gifted passer.  As a rookie he had the 15th best assist-to-turnover ratio among guards in the league.  On instinct alone he runs the break better than any point guard we've seen here since the 70's and 80's.  He's unselfish to a fault.  He's deadly quick on penetration and can't be trapped.  His 42% overall shooting clip is acceptable.  His 81% success rate from the foul line is better than that, and he should be the type of player who draws a lot of fouls.  He single-handedly increases the pace of the game the minute he steps on the floor.  You just do not see that from many players.  When he's free to play his game he often takes your breath away.  He has more potential to change the game than any of the other three point guards.

What Concerns Me:

Sergio's play is unselfish in that he prefers passing to shooting, but his game is kind of self-centered in the sense that when the game is not centered on him he loses his effectiveness.  When the ball is not in his hands and he's not creating the play he doesn't demonstrate a good understanding of the game.  This is true whether he's on defense, playing on offense away from the ball, or even when he's called upon to bring the ball up the court and just dump it off to another guy.  It might not even be fair to say Sergio is not a good defender or a good off-the-ball player or a good, basic set-up point guard.  Saying that would imply he can't do it.  I think we're a step away from even knowing if he can do it because it doesn't look like he knows what he should be doing.  He's not trying and failing, he doesn't know what to try.  In a way that gives hope because it means there's a chance he can reach his potential with just some more experience.  On the other hand the track record isn't really good for guys who are this raw at the point guard position becoming really excellent point guards.  When guys come in with fatal flaws they tend to keep them, if nothing else because coaches are reluctant to entrust such a vital position to players who haven't shown they can handle it.  Sergio is much more of a high-risk/high-reward player than the other point guards.  He has greater potential, but probably less of a chance to reach it fully.

Taurean Green

Why He's Here:

The best thing about Taurean is that you can be sure that he's going to fulfill every drop of potential in him and maybe a little bit more.  He knows who he is, he knows how to work, and he will learn what is expected of him and give his utmost to do it.  He leaves it all out on the floor every time.  He doesn't drift or disappear.  He's going to go down shooting or scrambling or whatever it is he does.  He's not afraid and he doesn't back down.  He exerts more energy on defense than he does on offense.  He won't be reluctant to take the deciding shot but he's just as willing to dive on the floor.  He won a championship in college being effective with brighter stars on the floor and there's no reason to think he won't do the same in the NBA.  He understands the game well and isn't afraid to ask questions.  He will be one of those "soak it up like a sponge" guys.  Most of all you just notice him every time he's out on the floor.  This is not as true of the other guys, even Sergio sometimes.  Taurean's going to make something happen.

What Concerns Me:

I have the same concern that Dwight Jaynes does.  Jarrett and Sergio each have specific physical attributes that give them an edge.  Taurean is a good athlete no doubt, but he's going to be one of those smaller guys who always has to overcome his stature instead of being propelled by it.  It's not like he's Mugsy Bogues (or even Damon Stoudamire, despite the comparison) but he's not exactly a 6'4" powerhouse either.  In some ways this limits his potential to become as great as his heart would make him.  It may even mean he's not a full-time starter on a great team.

There you go.  There's reason to like them all.  There's also reason to say, "Maybe this isn't the guy" for each one of them.  In the end point guard probably won't be a spotlight position on this team anyway.  You may end up keeping the guys who fit best which may or may not be the guys who are most talented and/or have the most potential.  Whoever makes Brandon, Lamarcus, and Greg look best (or makes the opposition look worst) are the guys we're likely to go with.  At this point we don't know who that will be.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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2009
I think Pritchard is going to hard after Chris Paul in 2009, making this the race to be Chris Paul's backup. I'd keep Jarrett and let him be the third guard. Of course, then there's myth known as Rudy ...

by superyeadon on Oct 27, 2007 1:08 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
I shudder to think what the hype surrounding that guy will be like in another year.  It'll make the Channing Frye expectations look like dust motes by comparison.

--Dave

by Dave on Oct 27, 2007 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I cant wait to watch...
him live up to the hype, barring injury of course.
RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Oct 27, 2007 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why Would Pritchard
hinge his plans on the very unlikely chance that Paul would be an unrestricted free agent?

First, you have to assume that NO would like to keep him (that's a safe assumption).

Second, next off-season's dynamics will be different then this off-season. We see in this off-season for instance that teams are playing hardball with their 3rd year stars. Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Andre Iguodala, and Al Jefferson are having a tough time getting extensions with near-max contracts. A primary reason for that is next summer, few teams will have substantial cap-space. So restricted free agents will have little leverage over their teams...they won't be getting big offers.

The summer of 2009, which is when Paul would be a restricted free agent, will be an entirely different matter. It appears several teams will have substantial cap-space, so free agents, both unrestricted and restricted will have an easier time getting near-max offers.

NO will recognize that dynamic with Paul next summer and negotiate accordingly. So assume they offer him an extension starting at 12 million a year; at least 25 million for the first 2 years. Right now Paul is scheduled to receive a little over 10 million on his rookie scale contract.

That means for Paul to become available to portland, he'd have to 'give up' 15 million dollars over a 2 year period! Why would he do that? Why would anyone? It doesn't make sense considering the possibility of a major injury.

Portland will not be signing Chris Paul as a free agent.

by moldorf on Oct 28, 2007 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And don't forget the pr
campaign soon to be known as the ship needs a finn.

by ojala on Oct 27, 2007 6:52 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

up in the air
I agree: as long as things are this unsettled at PG, we're going to be fantasizing about Finns, Spaniards and Hornets.  And the point about Blake, that he blocks anyone else from developing, is the most important. I think his signing was one of the few missteps of the new regime. We need to see if either Jack or Sergio can take a big step forward this year, and the only way to tell is on the court.  If both flounder, then, yeah, PG becomes truly wide open for next year, unless it's going to be Roy.

by barryj on Oct 27, 2007 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think
Blake came over for Oden because they wanted a steady veteran for him.  Oden's development was the most important thing this year.  

I wonder if the team would have resigned him after the Oden injury.  He does have a few years left in the tank and he actually lives in Portland.  He could be the back up for years.

Fatty, Big Daddy on the BE, Man o' international renown, Postin' from his own thrown, Tellin' us what we couldn't see

by tominhawaii on Oct 27, 2007 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

point guards
Dave, your analyis is pretty much on the spot though I'd disagree with you slightly on a couple points. Granted, though you did add the disclaimer that you were mostly highlighting the positives, but you still went way too easy on Blake. I thought his display in the preseason would surley make people realize how silly it was to rejoice when he was signed, yet somehow fans and coaches are still completely blinded by his glaring deficincies. To have a starting point guard who can't create his own shot is almost unheard of these days in the NBA, yet Blake somehow gets a free pass on that. Even with a healthy Oden, this club was never going to be a good offensive team and to have a guy who can't create his own shot as your starting PG is incredibly foolish. When set plays break down, it's naturally your PG who you look to to create something and Portland couldn't depend on Blake to do that against D-League defenders let alone polished NBA stars. Having two scorers like Anthony and Iverson on the court last year masked that but on a defensive minded team like this, that weakness really becomes apparent.. We can also talk all day how pesky and hard he tries on defense but the fact of the matter is is that he is overmatched 80% of the time. Watching a 38 year-old Cassell have his way with him made me think how bad it will get when he's got Paul or Williams or Parker coming with a full head of steam. Unless you're Nash and you're producing huge numbers on the other end to compensate, you're screwed. Your comment in the recap post how Iverson torched "whoever" guarded him is pretty indicative. Though I didn't watch the game, I'm pretty confident Blake got the brunt of Iverson's wrath, which is to be expected of course but still goes to show you that as a scrawny unathletic white boy he will be a target. Fair or not, race plays a part in this and whoever says it doesn't hasn't played the game past grade school. In a dog eat dog competition like the NBA, guys like Blake are a specific target for other players because of their physical inferiority and unless they have the swagger or toughness of a Nash or Stockton they will suffer. I hope this post compensates in some way for the rave reviews he seems to be getting from the local media and fans. In all honesty, I don't think Blake is a terrible player. He is a serviceable back-up who most teams like having. Though I thought bringing him in will stunt the growth of Sergio, Jack and Green, I actually hope Blake will be backing up Rodriguez in two years when Pritchard deems him to be ready to take over this team.

by pitar on Oct 27, 2007 4:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

beautifuly put
Thank you. I've never been a Blake fan, but I'm ok with him as long as he doesn't start. Again, that was great. Blake seems to have a free pass regardless of what he does on the court, and all of his positives are "intangibles" aka BS.

by ssa400 on Oct 27, 2007 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's too harsh and/or oversimplified
Blake has tangible things that he does well, most of which are listed above.  Pritchard and McMillan didn't want him for no reason.  But he's limited in some ways as well.  His 40% overall shooting percentage is certainly one of those.

--Dave

by Dave on Oct 27, 2007 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
Blake's a little lame.  But Pitar's analysis isn't so hot, it's remarkably bad actually (bringing race into it?  what the hell?).  

One, when a play breaks down, it'll be Roy looking to score, not the point guard.  

Two, this team will be very good offensively.  The individual parts work well together.  

Three, Blake can defend a lot better than Jack.  Hell, McMillan used him on Kobe.  He just doesn't really do any one thing that well.  He sucked in the Seattle game.  

by begottenson on Oct 27, 2007 9:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmmmm
I missed the race part the first time through.  Yeah, I don't think that has anything to do with anything really.

--Dave

by Dave on Oct 27, 2007 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

White boy?
I also found the racial aspect of that post odd and unconvincing.  Nash and Stockton were mentioned so as to blunt the obvious rebuttal.  I have played my share of hoops, and also watched the NBA for many years.  Whether in the schoolyard or the NBA, if you can play you can play.  Sure, a white guy with an unimpressive physique will make guys' eyes get big.  But that ends within minutes if he can play.  By the same token, it doesn't matter how much you look the part: if there's any weakness in your game, opponents will sniff it out like a shark smells blood.  

I recall when Ricky Green was the feared, ultra-quick point guard for the Jazz.  Green went down during a playoff series with the Warriors, and they salivated at his replacement: a skinny white rookie from Gonzaga.  Of course, the salivation ended as quickly as it began; that kid was John Stockton.  He didn't have the look or the swagger--just a lot of game.  I don't believe Green ever started another game for the Jazz.

by hurryup09 on Oct 29, 2007 1:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Having said that...
Pitar does have a point about Blake's inability to create his own shot.  You'd like for your point guard to be able to make something happen when the shot clock is winding down and no one's open.

by hurryup09 on Oct 29, 2007 1:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dave, Your Analysis
is pretty good. But then that's why you get paid the big bucks.

In my view, there is something of a misconception about why portland signed blake. There seemed to be quite a few people assuming blake was signed because the blazers had little confidence in Jarret Jack. I'm sure they have some doubts, there have even been reports of that. But if lack of confidence was a factor, then I believe it was centered on Sergio rather then Jack. I don't think Nate wanted to enter the season with Sergio as the #2 PG. And while KP seems more impressed with Sergio then Nate, I would guess he saw and appreciated nate's point of view.

But primarily, I think both KP and Nate were comfortable with Blake, however limited his game may be. And they knew he would fit into the 'culture' and be a positive as far as chemistry. I think blazer fans need to take KP at his word when he says a player has to fit the team's culture, although I know one blazer fan who would be happy not to hear that word again for a few months.

Of course, Blake being willing to cooperate contractually with KP's plans for the team may have been a bigger factor then we know. I thought the blazers would take a run at Desmond Mason; maybe they did and his demands were much larger then blake's.

Enough of that tangent.

IMO, Jack is the better player right now, but blake probably has slightly better PG skills. At least in areas normally associated with PGs. As you pointed out, blake is probably at his 'ceiling' right now, or at least very close. He'll get better when he becomes more familiar with the team, but that will probably be the extent of his improvement. Jack could have quite a bit of room for growth. Many NBA pg's seem to make big strides in their 3rd and 4th seasons. Of course, it's possible he's as close to his ceiling as blake is to his. But discovering that will be part of the fun of this season.

As to Sergio, I'm not as impressed with him as most blazer fans are. But he is very young, and there's no denying his speed with the ball. The problem is his ineffectiveness when he doesn't have the ball. And unfortunately, I think his playing time will be sporadic this year.

Green?...I simply don't know. I saw him a few times in college, but that doesn't mean much right now.

I don't think portland will enter next season with both green and sergio. I believe there's a good chance portland already has claim to a PG who will be better then either of those two, and he's in the Finnish Army at the moment.

by moldorf on Oct 28, 2007 8:36 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The race thing
was getting some testy responses so I deleted a couple of comments even though they had valid points in them.  If the thread is going to continue let's leave the race thing out.  I don't think it's a major factor.

Also, as always, make your points without disparaging the other people who are talking with you in this thread.  That includes speculation on how much they've played and various more intimate insinuations...

--Dave

by Dave on Oct 28, 2007 10:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

oops
Sorry, Dave: I posted above before reading this.  But I certainly didn't take any shots at anyone.  I think it was valid for pitar to suggest that being white somehow is a liability because it makes the player a "target."  I just think he happens to be wrong.  As I explained, you get that target off your forehead very quickly if you have game.  It's no different than being skinny like Tayshaun Prince.  Sure, guys see he doesn't "look the part," so they attack him.  But a couple blocked shots later they start looking elsewhere for a weak link.

Race is a reality in the NBA as it is in America as a whole.  I'm sure a white player can expect to be be tested his first couple of times around the NBA.  But within a couple months, his reputation will be established based on his game, not his appearance.  Obviously, Blake has long since proven he can play.

by hurryup09 on Oct 29, 2007 2:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No problem
your comment was insightful and appropriate.

--Dave

by Dave on Oct 29, 2007 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

oops
Hurryup, that's a good point about Prince though a bit far-fetched in relation to Blake. In the end you've validated my point...Blake's reputation is what will get him in trouble, not out of it.

by pitar on Oct 29, 2007 9:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

We'll have to agree to disagree
I think Blake has long since proven he can play.  This is not to say he's proven he's a great player--he's not.  But he's established that he can hold his own; no one's eyes are lighting up when they see him.  

When an NBA point guard dribbles the ball downcourt and sees Blake covering him, he sees a competent NBA defender--not a skinny white guy that he can likely light up.  Blake's race is not a detriment to him--or his team--in any sense.

by hurryup09 on Oct 30, 2007 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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