Sergio or...?

by Dave on Jan 15, 2007 9:23 AM PST in News Comment 37 comments

No doubt the cry will arise over Blazer Nation this morning, "What's the matter with you, START SERGIO ALREADY!" I am not necessarily opposed to the idea, at least until Jarrett gets back healthy. I know even then some will advocate Sergio starting, and that's a topic for another day. For now, have you considered that unless something changes, the long-term decision may not be between Sergio and Jack, but Sergio and Zach?

Even though they play different positions and theoretically could be on the floor together, our young point guard and established power forward are like oil and water in terms of style. Sergio runs and Zach walks. This offense (pun probably intended) already got Sebastian Telfair shipped out of town. "But wait!" you say, "Sebastian was more of a scorer! Sergio shares the ball so much how could he be incompatible with anybody?"

Well...I'd argue first that Sebastian didn't necessarily start out to be a score-first point guard. That emphasis was thrust upon him because our offense was so slow (and at that point stagnant) that his passing ability was thwarted. Nevertheless I'll agree that he had more scoring instinct in him than Sergio does. But here's the deal...in order to pull off those nifty passes and to express all that energy Sergio not only needs to run, he needs the ball. Watch how long it usually takes him to set up an assist, and how much dribbling he does. It's a lot. And how many of his assists come off of penetration? Answer: almost all of them. What happens to that penetration when guys are packed in the lane to watch Zach because Zach is camped down there not moving? Even more germane, what happens to Sergio's production when his main task is dumping it in to Zach, cutting away, and watching Zach operate for 6-8 seconds...possibly twice in a 24-second period? No ball, no magic, it's as simple as that.

You could say, "Can't Zach clear out and/or move around and let Sergio work?" Sure he could, but unless he picks up a whole new game you're going to watch his production fall if he starts hanging around outside. Neither he nor the team will be happy with that.

I'm always willing to admit something could change. Maybe the offense bends, maybe Captain Espresso learns to dribble less, or maybe folks would be satisfied with less than 25 and 10 from Zach. But unless something does change I'm willing to bet that you're not going to see Sergio and Zach both productive when they're on the floor at the same time. They won't clash...one or the other of them will just disappear.

I would bet that this is part of the rationale for not starting Sergio right now.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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One other reason

Both are defensive liabilities. Of course, that is true of much of the team today, but think to the future, when the Blazers are respectable again.

You can get away with one lousy defender on a team, generally. Two if they are both on the perimeter, and have enough sense to at least put their feet in the right place, even if they aren't quick enough to keep up with their man. Steve Nash isn't a great defender; but this weakness is overlooked in Phoenix.

But having two "-10" defenders, especially when one of them is on the interior, is a killer. Four guys can cover for the fifth, as the fifth can often be guarding the other team's weakest scorer.

But three goood defenders, in general, won't be able to cover for two lousy ones.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 15, 2007 9:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Sergio's defense

I've been watching Sergio's games a lot. You can call him imexperienced, but I don't think his defense was so horrible as Nate described.

He has long arms, he moves fast and he learns things quickly. He should learn how to defense better very soon.

Actually I don't think his defense is worse than Dixon.

by iverigma2 on Jan 15, 2007 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you Dave

I'm not a fan of Zach's style of play. I know he puts up big points and i appreciate that, but I feel it takes away from the fluidity of the other players. Mag has that same affect at times. there are those who disagree and they really seemed to grow in volume as our season went on and we started winning. The thing is, we're back in a slump again, and i feel this style of play is a large part of that.

I really wish we were in a position where we could get rid of Zach, but i don't see it happening.

I am amused that sergio did so well. It makes me wonder if he read the fox news commentary.

by ratbastird on Jan 15, 2007 10:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Sergio gets some love...

in the NBA's Rookie Report.

http://www.nba.com/rookies/rankings.html

No, he's not in the top ten (Roy is currently #5), but he gets props nonetheless.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 15, 2007 11:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Good analysis as usual

I read this immediately after watching the interview with Steve Blake here
in which he said that the Nuggets play "random" basketball; the only times they go into set plays are when inbounding or having to walk up court. The juxtaposition of these two coaching styles is pretty telling.

Someone here (?) said "Nate loves Sergio." I don't recall ever reading "Nate loves Zach." I wonder in his heart of hearts who Nate would prefer on his team. Of course he has to work with what he has. Do we have the components to complement Sergio? Did Martell play better because he played with Sergio? Obviously Juan benefits when Sergio plays.

Was Dickau cold last night because Zach was cold? Or was it just the whole blankety blank starting lineup?

by jorga on Jan 15, 2007 11:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I had to think about this one...

for a bit. Everything you said about Sergio working with Zach is true. I would argue that the same holds true for Brandon to only a slightly lesser degree.

You have three players who all need the ball in their hands: Zach, Roy and Sergio. All are perhaps deserving of the start. It makes for a tough situation.

I think it's still a moot point until everyone learns how to play the game.

by ken on Jan 15, 2007 11:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Roy, I worry less about

He's shown that he can be effective off the ball. And somebody has to have the ball in his hands.

Here's an interesting point, though: Perhaps the fates of Zach and Jack are intertwined? Randolph is most effective, by far, with Jack at the point. The other advantages Jack has over SR are:

Defense
Experience (one season)
A bit less careless (although SR's turnovers don't bother me much).

So what happens if Zach is traded?

by EngineerScotty on Jan 15, 2007 11:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Right now

you've GOT to say it's Zach's team. There's just no other option. But when everybody does learn how to play the game I think you will have to answer some questions about compatibility.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 15, 2007 11:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh

I don't get it. People seem to forget that it was Zach winning all of those games for Portland earlier in the season, but now everybody wants to blame him? He might have had his worst night of his career yesterday, but do not forget, when everybody else was playing badly, Zach was the only consistent factor in games and producing at a steady stream.

One quarter does not make a team. Look what happened in the next. Sure, it was extremely fun to watch the second quarter last night, but as you saw, Sergio and the rest of the guys could not keep up the energy for the rest of the game. You could attribute this loss and lack of energy to the starting 5, but you also have to remember that the second unit is the biggest defensive liability this team has. The best defender in that second unit was, oddly enough, Juan Dixon. That won't cut it.

I know people love to have a Phoenix Suns style of basketball team, but Portland does not have the personel nor the coach to have such a team. Portland would essentially have to start all over again, and get rid of Zach, Jack, Roy and Ime, because those are all half-court players. There is a reason these guys are our starters. I am sorry, but Sergio is not worth the price of those four players. Besides, until the Suns win a championship or even get to the Finals, their style of play is by and large a playoff failure. There is a reason the Spurs, Pistons, Lakers, and Heat are the four teams to win it all in the last seven years. They are all half-court and defensive teams, run by half-court and defensive minded coaches.

ROTUNDITYDOTNET

by damir on Jan 15, 2007 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Basically true

Again, right now there is no doubt that Zach is (and should be) the man on this team. The only way around that is if you say we should just start all over right now. I am still curious to see what happens in a couple years.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 15, 2007 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I hear what you're saying

I haven't fluctuated with my feelings on Zach. He's obviously more talented than i thought three years ago (tail end of season his scoring was going up and i said it was a fluke and we should keep what ever his name was at PF and trade zach). I think he has a willingness to learn, but i think that he's selfish or something. I didn't like what i've seen when i watch him play. Plays seem to die at times and i can't stand that!

Hopefully he'll learn, because i don't think we can trade him, but i do not like him. I'm happy when we win, but that doesn't change the fact that i don't like his play and i still think he's a knuckle head no matter what he does.

i would LOVE for us to trade him, even if we take someone on with less talent... as long as they'll play D or are more well rounded and less standoutish.

by ratbastird on Jan 15, 2007 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

zbo is a loser

period the but in his defense he does produce unlike those losers in te 02-05 drafts let's see q.woods,outlaw,telfair kryhapa,monia,the tallest human piece of feces ha right now webster considering what guys are picked ahead of him or doing is considered a bust only jack is solid of this sorry a** group... now this 06 group i told you people are a potential of greatness group from roy,aldridge and mr.rodriquez i told you people get rid of j.nash's mess and let k.p. continue his magic add a t.hansborough,c.brewer r.hibbert or a big baby davis and wow what a young*talented very educated college winners you people would have gee sure beats these lousy losers they have now just get rid of nash's mess all of the 04-05 guys disappear period...

by fatty on Jan 15, 2007 12:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Harsh words

but i agree with what the basics.

by ratbastird on Jan 15, 2007 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Adjustments

How well will Espresso do when teams actually plan on defending him? I seem to recall that earlier in the season he got some burn and other teams adjusted to his play, making him less effective. How well he adapts is the true question. Much of JJ's troubles can be blamed on that as well. Blake was the team's PG last year. Jack is adapting to the adjustments being made on him, but it's taking him some time to get through. I agree with Nate for now. Keep SR coming off the bench as an energy guy, and have the starters learn how to play together.

Zach is Zach. Aside from an improvement in scoring and rebounds, he's the same. A solid offensive option when there aren't that many options. Just don't expect anyone else to take over a game. That's what other teams plan on when they play us. Double Zach and make the rest of the team beat you. Too many times that strategy works.

I'd say Zach is not the long term option (shock), but he's all we've got until some of our young "potential" guys step up to the next level. I wouldn't be suprised to see a trade before the deadline that dumps Zach, and Jamaal in a package deal that nets us a veteran SF who can shoot and defend. I'd sacrifice vital anatomy for The Matrix, but I'd settle for Vince Carter right now. Kevin Garnet? Maybe we can get a superstar on Ebay.

by Steve The Hedge on Jan 15, 2007 1:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Marion?

No way that the Suns would give up Shawn Marion for Zach. Zach is the wrong player for the Suns -- does not run, is not a high-flying post player, holds onto the ball too long, etc. Vince Carter will surely opt out of his contract this year and try to sign a big check with whichever team he pleases -- but a team in the playoffs nonetheless. He publically refused to be traded to Portland a few years ago when he was still in Toronto.

Kevin Garnet? Won't make this young team better. He is getting too old now -- he is best served on a veteran team that can compete for a ring right now.

ROTUNDITYDOTNET

by damir on Jan 15, 2007 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't discount KP & Santa

Marion might be obtainable in a three team deal. There a numerous ways to make something happen with a facilitator. I'm not saying that it would happen or is even likely, but it is in the realm of possibility and therefore a legitimate wish-list option. Just ask Santa.

I'll take an opted out VC just to get out from under Zach's contract.

Garnet is also a Santa option.

Don't kill my dreams just because there is a .00000000000001% chance of it happening. Next you'll tell me there's no Easter Bunny.

by Steve The Hedge on Jan 15, 2007 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Start Sergio!

while jack is down and out SERGIO should get his minutes...dan dickau sure doesn't need them.

by luckyride on Jan 15, 2007 4:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

To me the real problem of building around

Zach is that almost universally Blazer fans agree that Zach is not the answer long-term. So why let your future pick up bad habits and not learn important fundementals about how they will be playing once he is gone? I agree that this was a career low game and that you shouldn't judge Zach on that one game, but it hasn't been a very good month for him, way more ups and downs than the first 30 games of the season. My take is to definitely keep Zach motivated and working hard, playing smart ball, because he is quite possibly tradeable this season, which is new. I think that the Blazers do have a potential running future ahead. I think virtually every draft pick we've taken for the last four years or so support this style of game, and so do a few of the pick-ups along the way. I do not think this means that Jack would need to move either, but he would likely be the bench point and come in at selectively advantageous times. If we did trade Zach and Jack together, we'd be getting some value in return and it's hard to judge what that value would entail and if we'd be better or worse for it. Regardless I do firmly believe that the Blazers will not be a contender with Zach wearing our uniform. If that is the case it makes sense to compell a trade if we can get value in return. All it takes is the return of Bad Zach to ruin this chance and we may be teetering on that reality.

by drawingjeremy on Jan 15, 2007 5:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's

Jack's team. I fully expect Sergio and that second unit of Dixon, Webster, Mags, and Aldridge/Lafrentz to get some play but that line up only works if the back court is shooting the lights out, and in that second quarter against Denver they were. But how well would it work if they arent hitting? Its not every quarter that you can hit 76% of your shots, thats just not possible most nights. Sergio hit everything he threw up there, but expect that to be there every game.

by JPop on Jan 15, 2007 8:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'm meant

*dont expect that every game

by JPop on Jan 15, 2007 8:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

100% agree

I just discussed completely the same thing with my friend after the Nuggets game.

It's not Sergio v.s. Jack. It's Sergio v.s. Zach.
Moreover, it's Sergio v.s. McMillan.

I've been rooting for Sergio to be our future PG for a while. But I thought he needs some time to improve his shooting and penetrating. If he always prefers passsing than shooting, opponents are easily to predict his next step and steal the ball(like G. Hill did.) But it seems that this kid learns things much faster than I thought. In the Nuggests game he showed everyone that he could score and he could score a lot!

I appreciate Zach's effort and his 25/10 per game. But I still don't think he's a keeper and I love to trade him. First, his off court events easily bring bad images to our team, even though I personally don't think that should be an issue. But if so many people have problem with it, then why don't we make some adjustment? Second, he's not predictable. Yes he scores all the time, but he defends only WHEN HE WANTS TO DO THAT. It's up to his MOOD. When I see a good game from him, I'm not sure if I can see the same thing in the next game. That makes me uneasy. Third, he has a high value now. He could be traded for a VERY HIGH PICK, like Durant or Oden, or a very great young player like Deng or Gasol. Next year? I don't know.

It's reaaly intersting. The one considered to be sent to D-League unexpectedly brought such a big impact to the organization. He might even chance the whole team's future.

by iverigma2 on Jan 15, 2007 9:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Just be careful

In 2004-2005, fans were calling for the team to get rid of Damon Stoudamire (and for that matter, NVE) and annoint rookie Telfair as the team's Point Guard Of The Future.

The team, after firing a coach, did just that.

In 2005-2006, fans (lots of them) called for the team to get rid of Sebastian Telfair, and annoint rookie Jarrett Jack as the team's Point Guard Of The Future. (Steve Blake was in there somewhere).

The team, after firing a general manager, did just that.

Now, in 2006-2007, some fans are calling for Sergio to replace Jack as the Point Guard Of The Future.

While I like Sergio's game... some stability is probably in order. I think Rodriguez should get more PT--on a team with a full compliment of guards (I'm counting Webster as a SF here), Rodriguez should be the first or second guard off the bench. Unless he stinks up the joint, or otherwise necessary; I'd prefer him to get PT over Dickau.

But, the starting PG position is, and should be--for now at least--Jack's to lose. Jack hasn't done anything to merit losing it.

Flip-flopping is not conducive to the team's development. If Sergio is as good as some people think he is, he'll force the team to re-evaluate the PG position. He hasn't done that yet; though he's promising. Maybe he will.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 15, 2007 10:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yep

That's why I also like that the braintrust at Blazers Inc. did not listen to the fans request to draft Adam Morrison (I was one of them) and went with players that they wanted and players that best suited this franchise.

ROTUNDITYDOTNET

by damir on Jan 15, 2007 11:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yah

We're in a pro-Sergio mood now just like we were in a pro-Brandon mood early on and a pro-Lamarcus mood last month. Our opinions of both of the former two have come back to earth and our opinion of Sergio will do the same. However one can anticipate a time when all of these guys will be ready for legitimate minutes and spots and that's where the questions will be answered.

I expressed the same thing about the point guards last week...except tracing the views of the Blazer brass. First it was Telfair, not Paul or D. Williams. Then it was Jack, not Blake or Telfair. And now if Jason Quick is to be believed it might be Roy and Sergio, not Jack. I don't know exactly what we're thinking here. Personally my vote would be to hang on to Jack. He's the obvious starter now and may continue to be. Even if he's not a long-term starter he's VERY valuable because of his skills and attitude. And I did mention before that we've only won, like, two games all season when he hasn't produced. We need him right now a lot more than people think.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 16, 2007 12:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe not to start right away

I don't call for starting Sergio right away either. I only want more PT for him, the same as you. I just don't think Damon and Sebastian are good comparisons. Sergio doesn't have off court problem like Damon and he is definitely more talented than Telfair.

I know it takes time to let him be the starter. But if we IGNORE his ability, PRETEND we don't have such a genius PG in our team, or THINK it would be a future issue, we're going miss trade opportunities and waste a lot of time.

by iverigma2 on Jan 16, 2007 12:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Damon had resolved his off court issues

by the time his contract was up. Out of all the former Jail Blazers, I have by far the most fondness for Damon--who is a good guy--for that reason; even though guys like Sheed, Bonzi, and Rider were arguably more talented.

However, championship teams are generally not led by 5'9" shoot-first point guards, which Damon was. Unless that player is truly something special. While Damon was a fine player, he wasn't Something Special.

I'd like to see him back in Portland in the future, possibly in a coaching or management role. He knows the game well; he might be able to do a good job.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 16, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If Zach...

...could /would run a pick and roll by starting with the pick portion, I think they could coexist pretty well........If only.

It wasn't the first time I'd been kicked in the cherries and called a rat by a woman, but it was the first time I didn't mind.

by shenanigans on Jan 15, 2007 11:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Hold on to your pants

Sergio is not going to get crowned anything with one breakout game. The whole premise of this disscusion is that somehow these two cant co-exist. I can see two ways of this happening.

put runners and shooters in the game along with Zach and Sergio. Push and if you cant get an easy bucket then set the offense and get it to mister consistency (Zach).
let the second unit be night and day to the first. Get Mags out of there and use LaMarcus at center. put in Travis at 4, Ime or Roy at 3, Juan at the 2 and play ":07 seconds or less" basketball.

I dont believe that Sebastian didnt have success because of the style of play here. I believe Telfair didnt have success because he just wasnt the complete player that everyone wanted him to be.
He certainly does not see the court like Sergio.

Sergio doesnt need to start, he just need his burn. he needs Nate to give him the team for consistant minutes every night.

by DropstepJ on Jan 15, 2007 11:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Nate's Calculus

I'd be interested in knowing what formula Nate uses to hand out PT. Before training camp he said he'd give the time to those players who played well, regardless of their contract or age. How does he compute SR's PT after one monster game? Is that worth an extra couple minutes? I'd think so. Nate should let out a little more rope on his leash and see what he can do. He could always yank him if tragedy strikes. Sit him on the bench and let the lesson marinate. Smart, controlled aggression = Playing time. Take some of the back-up PG minutes Brandon is getting, and give them to SR. Brandon needs to focus on being a NBA "2" first anyway.

by Steve The Hedge on Jan 16, 2007 7:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

like c.rosen said

the sooner you get rid of webster,outlaw,magloire zbo,raef,dixon,and let the draft class of 06-07 play together the sooner this franchise will go foward period..... like i said utah,orlando toronto and knicks were in the same situation the blazers were in and i see much improvement especially in toronto and yet the blazers are still mediocre why os that....

by fatty on Jan 16, 2007 9:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, kinda

I agree that this most recent class of players is looking more and more like the future, but it sounds like your saying that NY and Toronto are soooooooo far ahead of the Blazers with their pair of sub 500 records in the east.

I'll concede that both teams are currently playing a little better than the Blazers but make no mistake, all three are mediocre at best.

It wasn't the first time I'd been kicked in the cherries and called a rat by a woman, but it was the first time I didn't mind.

by shenanigans on Jan 16, 2007 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

One thing to clarify

on Sergio. He has not soley produced in one monster game. Granted for the Trailblazers he was the man on Sunday hosting Denver. But, his assist numbers are consistant with what he's averaged per minute over the course of the season, about one assist for every 3 minutes, a staggering stat for a rookie. He just hasn't seen enough playing time in a game to put up 10 assists until now.

That said his point production on this last game was above the average, and should be expected to be above his future point per minute average. So don't expect these sort of points to be coming out of him consistently.

His assist to turnover ratio, though very good at 2.5 on Sunday was actually a bit worse than his normal production. So look for that number to actually improve based on his season average which if memory serves is well over 3.0.

To me the big question for Sergio right now is how big a liabilty is he on defense? Will his defense improve much more quickly with reasonable PT as opposed to the minimal minutes he's generally been given? What is best for the Trailblazers a year or two from now, to play him more or less?

by drawingjeremy on Jan 16, 2007 2:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Fanning the flames

is this editorial over at HoopsWorld:

http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_20423.shtml

by EngineerScotty on Jan 16, 2007 5:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Oh geez

I cannot believe all this bandwagon jumping. I liked Sergio before Sunday night. I still like Sergio. I liked Jack before Sunday night. I still like Jack. I am not ready to make Sergio our starting point guard (and Dave's poll shows that most everyone here feels the same way - at one point this morning it was 100% for having him start till JJ gets back. I like the funny little things like the Rookie Report saying "And Sergio makes three?" but to cement our future to some inspiring moments and one outstanding quarter? Let's at least wait till after tomorrow's game...

by jorga on Jan 16, 2007 7:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of the bandwagon jumping

is based on the oft-repeated claim that Sergio is "special". Someone who will one day be a Magic, an Isaih, a Stockton, a Nash.

And maybe he will.

But two years ago, people were saying that about Telfair. Last year, he got the starting job, and struggled. He got traded to Boston, struggled, and now is riding the bench.

FWIW, I like Sergio's offensive game better than Telfair's, especially on the break. He needs more experience running a halfcourt offense, and needs to work on his D.

Nobody, or hardly anybody, describes Jack as special. Which may be a feather in his cap; if I had a dollar for all the players coming into the league annointed as the Next Big Thing, without playing significant minutes at this level, I could buy the entire forum a pair of Air Jordans.

Sergio may yet win the starting job--here or elsewhere. But he should have to WIN it. We shouldn't give it to him, based on one quarter against a relatively weak (though not compared to us) defensive team.

That said, he should be getting lots of burn; unless he screws up enough that Nate has little choice but to bench him.

by EngineerScotty on Jan 16, 2007 9:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Jack is special

but admittedly it's an intangible thing. Jarrett just smells to me like a guy who's a winner. He feels like a San Antonio Spur, or like Terry Porter. He's young and this is his first real year of playing time, and I fully admit I'm living with a lot of his mistakes, but my Spidey Sense is tingling about this kid. He seems like one of those guys who could put up 20 a game but never will because he's a team player and really invested in all the other parts of the game in addition to scoring.

Maybe I'm all wet, but that's how I feel.

--Dave

by Dave on Jan 16, 2007 10:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs