Blazersedge: FanPosts

Blazers Vs Spurs 11/6/09 Review

2009-11-07T08:42:12Z

I wasn't sure what to expect tonight with the change in the starting lineup. But I did like what I saw. Though I don't think you can continue to start both Blake and Miller all season, it clearly worked against San Antonio. Having Blake, Miller, and Roy on the floor is a good lineup if they want to push tempo which is what they should do against a team like San Antonio. The Spurs are old and they won't want to run all game. Though the Spurs made it close. I don't think the Blazers ever lost control of this contest.

While pushing the tempo tonight the Blazers finally did what I've wanted them to do since the season started and that's pound the ball inside to the big guys. It seemed like every night Portland had a mismatch on the inside that they didn't take advantage of. Though tonight they fed the ball inside to Oden and Aldridge. Though Duncan on Oden is not a mismatch, Oden did way better then I expected. He made a couple great power moves to the basket and had those two jump hooks. He even hit a nice face up jump shot.

I'm not going to get too excited over Oden's performance, though I really want to. Oden will have games like this here and there but I don't think the Blazers will continue giving him touches. I don't think there's a big man in the NBA that can guard Oden 1 on 1 and that got shown tonight as the Spurs didn't double team Oden.

Another positive for Oden is that other then the first couple minutes, he stayed out of foul trouble. He looked like he figured out how to not foul. Nate should sit Oden down, show him the tape of that game and say "you see what you did. Do that every game for the rest of your career." If Oden plays defense like he did tonight he'll really help the Blazers. If he goes back to fouling, it will really hurt them. I think Oden was the reason the Blazers won tonight. Maybe I'm wrong. But from what I was watching it looked like Oden was controlling the game in the second half.

The guards played well tonight. Andre Miller had his best game as a Trail Blazer tonight I think and Steve Blake made shots he needs to make. Brandon shot the ball well and I hope he can continue to do so. But I did want more production out of Rudy. But I guess I can't get greedy. Portland did win so I'm happy.

One last thing. I know Oden may not need help defending in the post but I noticed something on a couple of possessions that I'd like to see the Blazers do more on defense. When Oden had 2 fouls and he came in late in the 2nd quarter, Duncan was looking to go right at him but the Blazers doubled Timmy. They did it a couple more times throughout the rest of the game. I think if you want to keep Oden out of foul trouble you should double whoever he's guarding in the post to get the ball out of their hands so they can't attack Oden. Even though Oden did a spectacular job tonight on Tim Duncan.

Overall it was a great win and I hope this will get Portland back on track.

JD 11-7-2k9: R.A.M.B.O=AWESOME

2009-11-07T08:01:38Z

More after the jump

Fact: Prior to the season, the consensus for preferred starting lineup for the 'Zers was R.A.M.B.O. After Batum's surgery they resorted to R.A.W.B.O and went 2-3. By inserting Andre Miller into the lineup for Friday's game Nate created another R.A.M.B.O. combination and the Blazers won by their largest margin of the year.

Fact: Jerryd Bayless saw his first action of the year. The Blazers are 1-0 when Bayless plays. Thus the solution to all of the Blazers problems is more Baylessness (or less Baylesslessness if you prefer)

Based on the facts at hand, it is clear to see that if Nate will start Roy, Aldridge, Bayless, Miller and Oden, the Blazers will never loss a game again. It is so simple.

Somebody needs to edit this picture to reflect this new reality

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Poll

Who wins in a car/moose collision?

The View from the Cheap Seats: Quick Notes on the Spurs game 11/6

2009-11-07T07:38:37Z

1) I confess to being one of the people who thought Blake and Miller should never play together. Then Nate starts them both, and plays them together most of the game. The Blazers then beat the Spurs by 12. This is why Nate's the coach and I'm not.

2) I took my lucky charm to the game tonight, my 6-year-old daughter. The Blazers are undefeated when she goes. I was a little bit worried when she fell asleep in the 2nd quarter, but apparently she doesn't need to be conscious at the game for the Blazers to win. With 50 seconds to go and the game clearly in the bag, I woke her up to say it was time to go. "Is it over?" she asked. "No," I said. "I don't want to go then", she said. Now there's a Blazers fan.

3) Can anyone tell me when the last time Greg Oden was the first Blazer in double figures. Oden schooled Duncan all night long. It was joy to watch.

4) I love the fact that Blazer fans know their team so well, that they went bonkers when Nate put Jerryd Bayless in the game. How many teams have a fan base that tracks their 3rd string point guards minutes, and cheers when he plays.

5) On the hand, the jerks who yell Blake s*cks at the top of their lungs during a crucial free throw make me want to dump a beer on someone's head. I'm so sick of the Blake/Miller "controversy." Just shut-up and enjoy the game.

6) Boy, Webster looked mad that he didn't start. Sure am glad he took it out on the Spurs.

7) Manu Ginobli is a whiner.

8) OK, but if Oden is schooling Duncan in the first and second quarters, maybe we could get a pass into him in the fourth once in a while too. Not that Travis didn't once again carry us through the fourth, but Oden's shots just look so much easier--bump, turn, dunk a Duncan.

Open Threading through the Early Games - 11/06

2009-11-07T00:04:36Z

On this fine anniversary of Brandon Roy's excellence, we have a sweet slate of NBA games.

Particular games of interest:

Phoenix @ Boston. Looks like a Phoenix loss with the interior advantage Boston has. Nash has played at a high level this season, though, so it should still be a fun matchup of offense vs. defense.

OKC @ Houston. This is a game I'll be viewing quite intently. The starless, tough Houston team against the star-driven, soft OKC Pseudosonics. Fun times. I like Houston to win this... defense is enough to beat the lower echelon of the conference, especially at home.

Cleveland @ NY. James in NY. Everyone freak out.

Denver @ Miami. Denver's early-season play has been fantastic, even with their sharpshooter suspended. I think they win this, despite being on the road. Wade and Melo is a fun matchup.

Toronto @ New Orleans. Are either of these teams for real? New Orleans' core three players have been excellent in the early season but suffer from Byron Scott stubbornly playing Bobby Brown. Chris Paul this year: 30 ppg, >75 TS%, 42 AST%, 54 shots made, 30 shots missed.

Let's get this Friday night of hoops started.

What's Your second favorite team?

2009-11-06T23:27:00Z

I love my Blazers, like a girlfriend. We have ups and downs, joy and disappointment. And I don't want 'her' to think that I am cheating by wanting to watch another team with a little bit of loyalty and passion. This 'other woman' will never mean as much to me as my Blazers. I have League Pass and a lot of free time, so I am contemplating another team to root for. This team would preferably be out East so my two teams won't cross paths as much. I want a fun team, they don't need to win much, I was leaning towards the Pacers. What teams do you enjoy watching besides the Blazers? A team that you have no predisposition towards, a guilty pleasure. I also like GSW, but they live toooo close and I don't want 4 awkward meetings between my two teams. Help?

Another Pro-Andre Post

2009-11-06T23:17:23Z

I just wanted to address this Andre Miller situation and everyone else who is buying into ESPN's theory (see box 7, scroll down) that we only signed Andre to turn our cap space into a trade-able asset.

That's just a darned shame. Sometimes you just don't know what you've got 'till it's gone. This guy could absolutely help lead our team deep into the playoffs this season. He's one of the best point guards in the league and if we, as a community and fans, can't have some patience and we try to run this guy out of town - shame on us. Also, if our organization and our star player can't figure out how to utilize this guy effectively then we have much bigger problems on our hands.

We've played five games. It can definitely be your opinion that Miller is not working out, but there's no way anyone can tell me five games into the regular season that it's true. Of all people John Canzano provides some food for thought here. And here's a comment I posted on another thread yesterday that might help the doubters reconsider (with photos provided by 92wastheyear).

This can work. It should work. And as fans of this team we should all be pulling for it to work, in my humble opinion. I love Steve Blake. Steve Blake is exactly who you want relieving your starting point guard in a clutch playoff situation. It's time to start Miller. It's time for us to let this team develop chemistry on the court and give them a reasonable amount of time to do so. It's time for us to have a little more faith in our team.

GO BLAZERS!

John Hollinger on "what's wrong with the Blazers" from his 11/6 chat

2009-11-06T17:52:26Z

I don't always agree with him, and he relies too much on stats, but I couldn't have said this better myself!

Rob (Oregon)

What is wrong with the blazers?

John Hollinger (12:08 PM)

What if I said "nothing?" They played five good teams, lost by 6, 4, and 3, and are now 2-3 -- just like they were after five games last year. I think there's an uneasiness in PDX because the expectations are so much higher this season, but I can't shake the nagging feeling that if Oden makes those foul shots against Denver nobody would be saying a peep.

What do you think B-Edgers? Reason for worry, or is Hollinger on point?

Junk Genius 11/06/09

2009-11-06T15:08:24Z

Coming home from vacation this year I stumbled across some of the best advice I’ve ever heard in my entire life.

While passing through Salem it was evident most restaurants would be closed by the time I reached Portland, so I took the Market Street exit and headed for The Olive Garden.

I was eyeing the Five Cheese Ziti Al Forno when the waitress asked me if she could get a drink going. I said “Sure, I’ll have some ice tea please.”

She then proceeded to tell me that she was from Texas and that her grandmother had taught her how to make the best ice tea in all the world.

Those who have a hard time following the complexities of elaborate recipes may want to skip this part and get straight to the junking. But if you read on, don’t blame me if your brain melts down into a pile of dodo bird droppings.

She said, first you put the ice in the glass and then you add the tea, always do it in that order.

And that my friends, straight from the heart of Texas, is the secret recipe to the best ice tea in all the world.

Poll

KP’s best chance to make a recipe for success is to….

New B-Roy is the Old Kobe

2009-11-06T14:45:29Z

Okay, we're under .500, so let's do some controversy. The problem is Brandon. First, the obvious caveat -- B-Roy is probably the best player we've ever had this side of Bill Walton. But it's a team game and Brandon is holding the team back. For starters, this team has brilliant upside with a decent point guard. But Brandon says his game is better suited to Blake, and Nate goes along. So Miller muddles along on limited minutes trying to steer a host of combinations. The running game is dead, the floor spacing dreadful, and the confusion, well, it's become an epidemic. And it will not get better until Miller gets the bulk of the minutes and the Blazers get to practice and get to work under the ball-leadership of a true point.

Second, Roy's principal offensive contribution is one-on-one. He's brilliant at it ... just like Kobe was. But the Lakers didn't jell and excel until Kobe decided it was time to focus his brilliance more fully within the team concept. That is something Roy has never really done -- and it's been okay with me for the last three years as he has developed and refined his skills. But now we are approaching the final level -- championship (or at least championship contention) -- and the time for one-on-one throughout the game (I'm not talking the final minutes here) has come and gone. Roy must integrate his talents and his game with the rest of the team.

This means that he must stop convincing himself that Blake is the best option for this team because that simply allows one of the least talented players set the tone for everyone else. Blake may make Brandon better right mow, but Miller can make everyone else better real quick, and he'll make Brandon better, as well, down the road. To achieve this, Brandon and Nate must change their mindsets. The sooner the better.

What Rotation, more like "What a Rotation"

2009-11-06T06:11:16Z

I know it's not time to panic, I also know the Blazers have players in different roles then last years team. It takes a while to adjust and it should. I'm just stumped at how the Blazers consistently use 11 players. Granted, they have the talent to put the depth on the floor, but does it really benefit having all this POTENTIAL? With that thought, what championship caliber team is or even ever has played with as many players and the amount of minutes as the Blazers are? Granted, a lot of championship teams will give minutes to their bench but it's BECAUSE THEY ARE WINNING BIG like by 15 points and have a 6-0 or 4-1 record. Then and only then do they give the minutes the Blazers do.

Below I have taken both the Lakers and the Celtics to compare to the Blazers minutes.

Blazers 2-3

Roy 38 minutes,

La 31 minutes,

Webster 27 minutes,

Blake 26 minutes,

Miller 25 minutes,

Outlaw 24 minutes,

Oden 23 minutes,

Fernandez 22 minutes,

Pryzbilla 17 minutes,

Howard 12 minutes,

Batum if he wasn't injured it would be 11 players and who's minutes would he get?

Starters average minutes = 145

Plus top three off the bench =71

Boston 6-0

Allen 34 minutes,

Pierce 33 minutes,

Rondo 32 minutes,

Garnett 29 minutes and probably going to go up while getting healthy,

Perkins 26 minutes,

Rasheed 21 minutes,

Daniels 21 minutes,

Williams 17 minutes,

House 15 minutes,

They have Davis out who would most likely take up most of Williams minutes.

Starters minutes = 154

top three off the bench = 59 minutes

Lakers 4-1

Kobe 41 minutes,

Bynum 40 minutes,

Odem 40 minutes,

Artest 38 minutes,

Farmer 14 minutes,

Brown 12 minutes,

Powell 10 minutes,

Gasol is out and will help reduce minutes from the front line and from Powell.

Starters minutes = 191 minutes

Top three off the bench = 36

Orlando seems to be the only team that has played their depth the way the Blazers have. But, they have also went 4-1 and won their games by almost 15 per. This is not a matter of talent, it's a matter of cohesiveness. This is about keeping your best players on the court to match up with the other teams best players. It's letting them play together and trusting what the other players can do and letting them do it. Sure, Boston proved last year that if you loose one of your stars you won't make it. The Blazers only have one star because they have let him become that. He's playing 38 minutes (Roy). How are our POTENTIAL stars going to become stars without getting the minutes stars get? But that has been the same with every championship team. There are lots of would've and could've in the NBA. That doesn't mean that the Celtics added more depth they improved their 6 and 7th players with Wallace and Daniels. The lakers didn't add more depth, they added Artest to a championship rotation. The Blazers added a proven player in Miller and he becomes part of the 2nd team. The second 5 guys that play extended minutes while our POTENTIAL stars rest on the bench. If this means we need to trade someone then so be it.

The Blazers have done an outstanding job of gathering talent, now they need to use it to upgrade the team so that they have the strongest 8 man rotation possible. Even with the group they have the Blazers should have three players complaining about not playing because they are going 8 deep. Use the depth when they need it. Thats only when they have an injury or they have proven to be a better player. I know it's not going to make players happy. Maybe this issue will take care of it's self. Maybe we will see both Blake and Outlaw heading out of town. I would hate to see them go, and it doesn't help the rotation now. Especially with a contract coming up for Greg Oden. One last note. This team needs to improve its perimeter defense. Yet they continue to leave their (except Batum) best guard defender with "DNP coaches decision". Obviously I'm referring to Bayless. That is what makes him so good. He has TALENT! Yes he is going to make mistakes, no he is not going to have the most assists. But he doesn't need to. He would be Playing with Roy or Miller who can handle the assists. One last note to Nate about Miller, Hey Nate, Miller is better then Blake. Roy will adapt, He is a star, He will do what he has done his whole Basketball career, evolve.

If you want consistency, you can't platoon your point guards

2009-11-06T04:45:53Z

Joe Freeman's feature story on Oregonlive today focused on the Blazers quest to find consistency.

Beyond these lingering issues is another far-reaching problem: Consistency. Or, more specifically, a lack of consistency.

I'm sorry, but this isn't rocket science. It is very hard to get consistent play when you are actively experimenting with lineups and can't decide who your primary point guard is going to be. There's a reason why good teams don't split the available minutes at the point guard position. The point guard is the player who provides the consistency; he is the floor general. And Nate McMillan is playing two different guys--guys who have very different playing styles--roughly equal minutes every game. That's a surefire recipe for lack of consistency and continuity on offense.

If you doubt this, I encourage you to look through the stat archives and find me a good team that gave equal time to two guys at point guard. Here are the average minutes of the league's point guards last season. Note how virtually all starters averaged more than 30 minutes a game (the only exceptions seem to be due to injury or moving into the starting lineup mid-season).

Nate's problem is that he doesn't seem to have the stones to demote either Blake or Miller to a secondary role. If I were running the team, I would have long ago designated Miller as the starter and simply let that lineup get used to playing together. There would be an adjustment period, but before long everyone would adjust to one another and learn to compliment each other's strengths and playing styles.

But since Nate seems genuinely unsure whether Blake or Miller is a better fit at point guard, allow me to suggest a simple way of proving this empirically. Here's what you do. For the next five games, start Blake in the first half and start Miller in the second half (or vice versa). That way, each game, both Blake and Miller will get to play a good solid stretch of time with the other four members of the starting lineup. It's a perfect controlled experiment. At the end of the five games, it should be perfectly clear who is the better fit. The evidence will be right there in the open for everyone to see and neither player will be able to complain. Whoever does better becomes the primary point guard and thereafter gets the most minutes. Simple, really.

Poll

What should Nate do about the point guard situation?

JD November 5/6 Roommate Edition

2009-11-06T04:22:42Z

Wassup junkers!!!!! Guess who's coming to Portland tomorrow!? ME!!!!! Beautiful Portland.

got the hook up for some tix for tomorrow night. thanks(you know who you are) anyway I hope I'm no jinx.

Anyway the purpose if this JD shall be to tell some funny/disgusting/incredible/amazing/sad/whatever stories about experiences you've had with roommates. This is my first year at college at the dorm experience is interesting to say the least. I don't really have any good stories yet. My roommate is fine. He can be annoying but i've heard horror stories that make me thing I have it pretty good.

So tell us your stories!

Poll

bedging from....

My own personal reality check

2009-11-06T01:02:11Z

I have been very critical personally of the early start. From a fan post i did http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/10/20/1093755/the-sky-is-falling-fire-nate-oden to several comments i have made most noteabley in http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/11/4/1115303/the-official-stop-playing-steve

Most of my points were centered around a lose of faith with Nate Mac and a lack of understanding what exactly he has to this point been thinking with some things. (Miller, Blake, the half crack head way he subbed the last 6 mins of the hawks game, etc) I still have these reservations, then i read http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/11/sarah_mensah_shares_lessons_fr.html its a good read. It also got me thinking, what happened to us? Only two seasons before this one we were 41-41 and stoked because we had a good group of guys that were young, talented, and had no where to go but up. Fast forward to now and guess what? We should still be stoked we have a good, young, talented group of guys to root for.

Yes, the fan says "go, fight win!!" and thats the way it should be. We all, myself especially should still take solice in the fact we have alot to be proud of in rooting for this team. This by no means makes anything easier but it is something i personally had kind of lost touch with. I got caught up in the issues we currently have, disappointed were not crushing people, or even winning for that matter. I lost sight of the fact, we are 2-3 (yes, that sux imo) Deep, young, talented, and now EXPERIENCED, and most importantly they are all still awsome dudes to root for.

I will, from now on try to look at things through that type of window and not the way i had been. I am not sure if i am a minority in regards to this or in a group that makes up the majority of us, but regardless of how many or few people had looked at things in a similar light i hope this helps to see things differently.

The Blazers attended a TEAM BUILDING workshop last year!

2009-11-05T22:39:59Z

This was on 95.5 yesterday. A caller who knows somone who works with the company who runs the "team building" workshops said the Blazer team went last year. This caller also said the Blazers didn't attend this year. Perhaps the Blazers would benefit if they attended again this year!!!

I also heard that Brandon as a young "superstar" wants to handle the ball. Jordan did at first and it took him 6-7 years to give some of that up for the sake of the team WINNING the championship. I just hope that Brandon will see that letting Andre play his game will bring the Blazers further in this season. And I hope that Nate can get this through to Brandon. Antonio Harvey said all of this will take time for Brandon. I hope it won't take another 2 seasons.

Stats 101: Whats The Deal? Let Me Explain...

2009-11-05T22:06:37Z

Okay--first of all let me introduce myself--im the Cave Junction Blazer and im crazy. Crazy because I spent all this time analyzing stats, just for my own joy, when I could be making the hard earned dough I need to pay bills. Oh well, I work for myself and I only have to commute to my garage which is about ten feet from where I sit typing this right now.

Anyways, I spent many hours pouring over the stats from all the games so far this season. After last night there were 69 games total played so far. I went over the stats to see what stat categories the winning teams won in. I wanted to get an idea of how important each stat was to winning and then compare the average stats from the rest of the teams to the Blazers and see what I get. The results are very interesting.

Chapter 1: Stat Junky

So first of all I looked at these categories of stats and put an "x" if the winning team won that category. The categories are--Offensive Rebounds, Rebounds, Steals, Assists, Free Throws Made, Field Goal %, 3pointers, FastBreak Points, and Blocks. Basically most of the categories youll see on any typical recap. Some things to note, if the team tied in the stat, I dont count it. For example if both teams had 15 assists in the same game, no team beat the other team in assists, so neither team wins that category.

Here is the overall NBA average for the winning team led stat for the first 69 games:

Offensive Rebounds-- 29/69 42% winning team lead stat (i.e.29 times a team won leading in off rebs)

Rebounds total- 42/69 61% winning team lead stat

Steals- 40/69 58% winning team lead stat

Assist- 45/69 66% winning team lead stat

Free Throws Made- 42/69 61%winning team lead stat

Field Goal % - 48/69 70% winning team lead stat

3Pointers made- 41/69 60% winning team lead stat

Fast Break Poionts- 40/69 58% winning team lead stat

Blocks - 37/69 54% winning team lead stat

For me that means that FG%,Ast, Free throw and Rebs (in that order)are the most important stats to winning a game.

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Chapter 2 : Going Stat Crazy

Here is some stats that are important to note:

0/69--0 teams lead all 9 categories once so far out of 69 games. The closest was Nov4 Orl vs PHX. Orl lead every category but off rebs.

0/69-- the times a team won by winning only 1 or 2 categories.

4/69- times that a team won the game with only 3 categories won. Oct30-OKC vs Det(OKC won), Oct31-Por vs Hou(Hou won), Nov3-LAL vs OKC(LAL won) and Nov4- LAL vs Hou (LAL won).

17/69--times a team won with 4 categories won

18/69-- times a team won with 5 winning categories

17/69-- times a team won with wininnig 6 categories

10/69-- times a team won with winning 7 categories

1/69-- times a team won by winning 8/9 categories

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Chapter 3: Blazers Comparisons

Did that make sense? The winning team lead those statistical categories that percentage of the time. Now lets look at the Blazers first five games and see where they faired vs the NBA average.

Oct 27-- Hou vs POR Portland won

Portland won 6/8 categories: Offrebs, rebs, ast, fg%, 3pts and Blocks

Oct29 -- Den vs Por Denver won

Denver won 4/8categories: Steal, freethrows, fg% and fastbreak points

Oct31-- Hou vs POr Houston won

Houston won 3/8 categories: steals, 3pts, fastbreak points

Nov1-- Por vs OKC Por wins

Por won 5/8 categories:rebs,stl,ast,fg%, and 3pts

Nov 3 ATl vs POR ATL won

Atl won 6/8 categories:offrebs, rebs,freethrows, fg%,fastbreak and blocks

(If Portland didnt win, they either lost or tied the categories that arent marked.)i.e. Por lost to Den-- in that game, Por lost or tied these categories-- rebs,off rebs, AST, FTM, 3pts,BLK

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Chapter 4: Double Figure Scorers

Now I already told you I was crazy. I went on to do another comparison. I wanted to see how scoring affected wins. So I looked at all 69 games again and I added up all the double figure scorers for each game. I did this because it seemed to me that teams that lead in double figure scorers usually won games. It isnt always true, for example team A might have a bench that outscored team B, or team A might have had less double figure scorers, but they had more points altogther. WHy is this important, well when you look at these numbers you might see some things like I did. Here we go:

Out of 69 total games:

1 team (Hou) has had 1 game with 8 double figure scorers! (Houston vs Utah Nov2)

0 teams have had 7 double figure scorers out of 69

14 teams have had 6 double figure scorers winning 9 losing 5

43 teams have had 5 double figure scorers winning 31 and losing 12**

51 teams have had 4 double figure scorers winning 23 and losing 28**

21 teams have had 3 double figure scorers winning 2 and losing 19

5 teams have had 2 double figure scorers winning 2 and losing 3

1 team has had 1 double figure scorer only winning 0 losing 1

**--- 4 and 5 double figures scoring are the highest for winning and losing

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Chapter 4: Blazers Comparisons Part 2

Its crazy to me, but after looking at those numbers, I realize that to win most of your games, you need atleast 5 scorers in double figures. (and win atleast 4 categories)You can win alot of games with 4 scorers in double figures but the losses go way up as well. So far this year Portland has 5 games--in those 5 we had 1 game with 5 double figure scorers and it was a win!

game 1 vs HOU--- Por 4 Hou 4 Por Won

game 2 vs DEN-- Por 3 Den 2 (I hate to say it but DENVER is a beast in every stat so far, but thats coming up soon)

game 3 vs HOU-- Por 3 Hou 3 Hou Won

game 4 vs OKC-- Por 5 Okc3 Por won

game 5 vs ATL-- Por 3 ATL 5 ATL won

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Chapter 5: Keep Your Enemies Close

First of all lets look at Denver since they are undefeated and in our division. In my opinion, they are playing the best ball in the NBA right now. I hate to say it but its true. So far they are #1 in offensive efficiency. Out of 5 games they are averaging 115.4 points per game! to only 101.8 for their opponents. The only game they didnt hit 100 points in was vs Portland. In the double figures stats, Denver is beating the odds. In 5 games, their double figure scores are:

game 1 vs Utah-- Den 5 utah 6!! Den won!!

game 2 vs Por-- Den 2 Por3 !! Den WOn!!

game3 vs Mem-- Den 5 Mem 5 Den won

game 4 vs IND-- Den 4 Ind 4 Den won

game 5 vs NJN-- Den 6 IND 6 Den won

In their first 2 games Denver had the least Double Figure Scorers and still won both times! Now lets look at how Denver competed in the categories vs their opponents.

Game 1 vs Utah- Denv won FG%, Off Rebs, STLS, BLKS, Fst Brk PTS (5 of 9 categories)

Game2 vs POR- Den won FG% , FT, STLS, FBP(Fast Break Points) (4 of 9)

Game3 vs Mem- Den won 3pts, FT, Off Rebs, AST, STL (5)

game4 vs IND- Den won FG%, 3PTs, FT, Off Rebs, AST, Rebs (6)

game5 vs NJN- Den won FG%, 3PTS, FT, AST, STL, BLK, FBP (7)

Now lets look at the L*kers first 5 games.

Double Figure Scorers:

Game1 vs LAC-- LAL 4 LAC 4 LA won

game2 vs DAL-- LAL 4 DAL 4 LA Lost

game3 vs ATL-- LAL4 ATL 4 LA won

game 4 vs OKC -- LAL 4 OKC 4 LA won

game 5 vs Hou-- LAL 4 Hou 5 LA won!

In every game but 1 those double figures scorers were Kobe(5), Artest(4), Bynum(5), Odom(5),Shannon Brown(1). Now lets see how the Champs face the categories test.

Game 1 vs LAC-LAL won off rebs, STL,FT, 3pts LAL won (5)

game2 vs DAL- LAL won STL, 3pt, FBP LAL Lost (3)

game3 vs ATL- LAL won REB, STl, AST, FG%, FBP, BLK (6)

game 4 vs OKC- LAL won STL, FT, FG%, LAL won (3)

Gmae 5 vs HOU- LAL won STL, FT, BLK LAL won (3)

LA isnt playing that great right now but they are still winning. 3 out of 5 games they only won 3 categories for 2 wins 1 loss. 1 game they won 6 categories and 1 game the won 4 categories. They lead all 5 games in Steals. They lead 1 game in Rebs, 1 game in Off rebs, 1 game in asists. But that is why they are the champs, they do all the other little things necessary to win.

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Chapter 5: Conclusion

The hot teams right now are dominating the game with 5 or more double figure scorers. Field Goal % is the single most important aspect of winning a game. You obviously have to make your shots. Assists are the 2nd most important part of the game. And that is really a reflection of your point guard play. The Blazers have had subpar pg play this year and its indicative in our record of 2 - 3. Then comes Rebounds and Free throws. We have won the rebound game in everygame but 1.

My opinion is that we the BLazers are working twice as hard as most teams right now because of the litle things we arent doing more than the big things we are. If you look at the L*kers, they havent done to well, having 2 games won by 1 point in OT and also having 3 of 5 games where they won 3 categories only. Yet they only have 1 loss. Again, its the little things that take you over the top. Denver is crushing opponents right now, by an average of 14 points! They average 115 points per game! Yeah, it wont stay like that all season, but they are hot right now no doubt about it. What the Balzers need to do, is take a deep breath, and get back to the basics. So far we have had subpar performances as a team in categories and in double figure scoring.

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Chapter 6: Q and A

Do we have the potential to be a top 3 team in the west? Absolutely.

Are we a top 3 team right now? Not even close.

Will we be a top 3 come playoff? 3 or 4 seed is my best guess.

Will we make the playoffs? Without a doubt.

Will we make atleast 50 wins? Again, I believe so.

What will our record be after 20 games? My guess is 12-8.

Will we make a big move this season? Almost garaunteed.

Am I disappointed by the slow start? Sure, but not too worried about the season yet.

Which Blazers need to step it up? Point Guards

What grade would you give ODEN so far? B+

What Grade would you give Roy? A-

What grade would I give Nate? C+

Hedo or Miller? Miller all the way.

Whose played better Blake or Miller? Blake, but only just barely.

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Chapter 7: The End

Well, thats it. Im geting board with this whole typing thing. Its taking me like 6- 8 hours to put this all together. I hope my fellow fans dont eat me alive for it. But I also hope you are able to glean some cool info and stats from all this gobbely gook. Please go easy on me if you disagree with any of this, but also dont hesitate to let me know what you think, I love the conversation. Again, the Blazers are my favorite team in the world, and its fans are like one big family to me, so I hope yall enjoy this post.

Peace Out,

Cave Junction Blazer

PS--1 more cool stat-- In the Nov 1 game vs OKC Martell had 4 steals. It was the first time a Blazer had 4 steals since January 24 2009 ,when Roy got 10 steals in 1 game vs the Wizards! One last thing, I checked and double checked for typos and that sorta thing so If you notice anything spelled wrong--feel free to point it out so I can correct it--Thanks Again...Enjoy!

First Rose Garden Game Redux...

2009-11-05T20:14:59Z

Well... i STILL loved being there...

Thanks to the folks who linked me to others who were at the game. Sadly I didn't check back soon enough to get the link until the game was over... too bad, it would’ve been fun to meet some BE folks.

In any case. The game was obviously very frustrating. The Hawks are not better than we are. We shot ourselves in the foot. Repeatedly. But despite everything, I enjoyed myself immensely.

As I wrote before, I went to tons of games at Memorial Col when I was growing up, but I moved away from Portland 18 years ago, just before the Rose Garden was built. Never set foot inside. Someone asked for a write-up of my experience so here it comes... it's gonna be long and perhaps interesting only to me... read or ignore, I won't take offense :)

My buddy, Craig (Birnbach), who is a sports anchor on KATU, had always promised to get me tickets when I came back to town. He remembers when he first met me, playing basketball in DC or Jersey or somewhere, he was like "who's the guy in the Blazers jersey..? who wears a BLAZERS jersey...??" Ironic that he ended up here :).

He got us good seats in the 105 section, and because he’s got press credentials, I was able to get on the floor before the game and meet a lot of Blazer Folk.
-I met KP, who was sitting on the scorers table talking with Quick. Craig was introducing me to everyone as “my buddy in Brooklyn who’s still a huge Blazer fan” and I told them both that I enjoyed Quick’s pieces and that I’d feel completely disconnected out east if it weren’t for his stuff and for BlazersEdge. I think I must have mentioned BlazersEdge to him 4 times in a 5 minute chat. lol.
KP asked what I did and when I told them I was an actor he said that one of his friends was one of the producers of the Broadway 80’s Metal/Hair Band musical Rock Of Ages… a little random to find out that your favorite NBA General Manager has friends who produce Broadway shows, but still.. fun to hear.
Maybe I’ll someday be in a play produced by Kevin Pritchard… He could pay me in Blazer tickets.
And you know, I’ll say this.. KP could not have been nicer. Really. He didn’t know me from adam and still he maintained a nearly 5 minute conversation. I mean, it was loose and there were a number of other people standing around, so I don’t want to make it sound like Kevin Pritchard and I had a CONVERSATION.. no, but, you know... 4 or 5 people were talking and I was one of them and I never got the feeling that it would be So Nice If I Were Elsewhere..
I did do the goofy thing and said “thank you for everything.” lol. But, damnit, I meant it! And he was really gracious about it.

-Met Tom Penn… But I didn’t know it was him until we were walking away… I was like…“wait, was that Tom Penn?!” Felt a little silly for awhile, trying to remember if I said anything embarrassing to him. Altho, really, it couldn’ve been much worse then “Thank you for everything.” lol. God I’m a dork..

-Craig seems to be buddies with Bayno, who jogged over to say hi as soon as we got down to the floor, so I got to meet him too. Really briefly, he was working obviously. He was bigger than i expected, but was covered in pads.. :) Really nice…

Hell, they’re ALL NICE! It’s preternatural….

-Bayless and Miller were working on jumpers. Like 10 feet from me. They didn’t miss.

-Met Ben Golliver. Told him I loved the chart! He was very nice too, and after the game called out “hey guy! nice to meet you!” as he was heading down to the locker room. Classy, he obviously didn’t have to do that.

-The Rose Garden hot dogs are HUGE!!! And only 6 bucks! I was told that the proof that I’ve been in NYC too long was that I thought a 6 dollar hot dog was cheap…

-I met Wheels and briefly met Antonio and Vance. They were all friendly. Wheels was particularly so. And said to come by and say hi is I was ever at a Knicks/Blazers game. I would not expect him to remember, but it was a nice gesture.
-Saw Harry Glickman courtside center. Cool that he still comes to all the games from what I heard.

-And Dominique Wilkins was there! Dude has a Really small head! I didn’t get to meet him, but it’s probably just as well because I was very distracted by his disproportionately tiny head…

-I didn’t get to meet any players (i never thought i would but still… they were RIGHT THERE…! lol), but I did get to meet Shonz. And you know.. I really got all goofy. He said “hi Kelly” in that freakin voice that I grew up with, and.. I mean.. I’m a 42 year old man. I’m an actor, I speak in front of people for a living.. I’ve been on Broadway with Denzel Washington and managed to keep myself together… when I heard Shonz say hi to me.. lol… I was a babbling child! But I did manage to tell him how much I loved hearing him calling that preseason game, and also about the time when my family had first moved from Portland (to Washington DC) in 1975, and the Blazers were playing the Bullets at the Cap Centre. My dad took me to me to the game and before tipoff we wandered up to see Schonley. He was so nice to this shy little boy and he put me on the air for a few seconds, asked me if I missed Oregon, etc.
I told him that that had actually helped me a little in my adjustment to the big city (I know, I know…. total cheese!). But he seemed genuinely touched. Shook my hand with both of his before heading off.

Next to my wedding night that was the Best. Night. Of. My. Life.
:)

And yes, I am somewhat prone to hyperbole…

But it was certainly a great night

(at least until the 4th quarter…).

My wife was there too btw, and was as loud as anyone there. I was so proud… ((beam))
She said I was allowed to call it the Best Night Of My Life until we left the building. Then It had to go back to #2 status.. I thought that was more than fair.

The game itself was actually often quite fun. And I noticed 2 main things that I haven’t on TV.

(I never claim to be an expert. At all. But I love me some BBall)

Stevie B looked for Brandon Every Single Time. Seriously. And to my untrained eye he did so to the detriment of offensive flow. I know this is no breaking news to a lot of folks, but it seemed more clear than ever up close..
First example that springs to mind was Martell. He had just scored 8 straight points including to beautiful 3’s, and found himself open in the corner the very next possession.
Steve looked at him, looked away, and forced the ball in to Brandon, who missed a contested layup.

Opposing players literally hurl themselves at Greg. At one point Evans lowered his shoulder and drove through Oden like a linebacker to get through a pick, knocking Greg back a few feet. No call. And of course we know how refs call Oden… you could really see it live. Just sayin….

Anyway. Thanks for letting me ramble. Weird to be so essentially happy during such a devastating loss… but there it is.
I believe my boys will get it together soon. I really do. They in no way looked over matched. Just very out of sync most of the time.

I should also give a little shout out to my buddy Craig Birnbach who got me those tickets and made the night possible. If you all don’t know him, he does a great job on KATU. Really good stuff. Check him out!

Go Blazers!!

Kelly

A view from a couple completely objective viewer

2009-11-05T19:45:39Z

... a computer.

According to Jeff Sagarin's rating system, Portland is the 9th best team in the NBA, and every team we have played is a "top 16" team. According to basketball reference's SRS rating (basically opponent adjusted point differential), Portland is the 6th best team.

In both cases, a surprisingly strong strength of schedule is the reason for the slack.

The sky isn't falling. It's just a good team going through a tough stretch.

Nate in the land of the giants

2009-11-05T15:02:00Z

With questions swirling around Nate McMillan's offensive schemes and substitution patterns involving Greg Oden - and to some extent Joel Przybilla - I was wondering about Nate's experience coaching a dominant big man, like the team and fans envision Oden to become. (He arguably played alongside one in Shawn Kemp.) Has he ever had a center good enough to warrant an inside-outside offensive approach going over the big man on many plays? A guy who won games for him on the defensive end? Or is he a proponent of small-ball playing even without a true center for stretches because that's what he had to do in the past for lack of better options?

Is Nate maybe just learning how to use Oden effectively while we are observing him, right now before our eyes?

Here is a review of the centers Nate was able to work with so far in his career as a head coach:

2000-01 season, Seattle:

Mr. Sonics first head coaching job taking over after a few games from Paul Westphal, and maybe the best big man he ever had right at the start: Patrick Ewing. But at this time, Ewing was 38. And while he did appear in 79 games that season and played 26 minutes per game putting up some respectable numbers, he was a shadow of his former self and would retire a season later in Orlando. The other big guys on that team: The notorious forward-center Vin Baker (6'11") at the beginning of his decline, recording his lowest point and rebounding totals per game so far in his career while appearing in 76 games. And the not very talented youngsters Jelani McCoy (70 games, starting 44) and Olumide Oyedeji (he stars in 1 game), both 6'10". The team missed the playoffs that season.

2001-02 season, Seattle:

Vin Baker and Olumide Oyedeji are still there. Ewing and McCoy are gone. There is a new big man in town: 7'0" Jerome James, in his sophomore NBA season. At age 26. They got him straight from European powerhouse club KK Buducnost, after he failed to stick with the Sacramento Kings and the Harlem Globetrotters two years earlier. Well, yeah, most of you know how that turned out. More on him later. The team had 3 more players capable of playing center: The Montenegrin sensation Pedrag Drobniak (6'11"), a 26 year old "rookie". Journeyman Calvin Booth, who appeared in 15 games. And F-C Antonio Harvey (6'11), coming straight from Portland to the deep but not very good big men bench in Seattle towards the end of his playing career. He would appear in 5 games, and record almost as many fouls (8) as rebounds and points (9). Gary Payton, forward Rashard Lewis and a few others willed the team into the playoffs without much help from their pivot men, where they lost in the first round to the San Antonio Spurs.

2002-03 season, Seattle:

Jerome James, Calvin Booth, Pedrag Drobniak returned. They were joined by Vitali Potapenko (6'10") coming from Boston in his 8th NBA season, which turned out to be one of his 3 worst. And journeyman Elden "Big E/Easy E" Campbell (6'10") came to the team for the second part of the season. That's right, I'm counting 5 centers on the depth chart again. None of them good. They finished 5th in the Pacific Division and missed the playoffs.

2003-04 season, Seattle:

More James and a lot more Booth and Potapenko in a shortened rotation. Drobniak and Campbell were gone. Sophomore Leon Smith (6'10") would appear very briefly in the last 4 minutes of his career. The San Antonio Spurs had used a 29th pick on him in 1999 before instantly trading his rights to Dallas, who signed him to a 3 year deal at $1.4 million before realizing he was a dud and never played him before shipping him along to the Hawks (100 minutes) and Bucks (0). Almost 30 picks later in the 99 draft the Spurs lucked into Manu Ginobili. Where were we? Ah, Seattle had no good big men and missed the playoffs again.

2004-05 season, Seattle:

Jerome James' "breakout season". He appeared in 80 games, scored 395 points, grabbed 241 rebounds, and weighed 300 pounds. Still his career high. Well, maybe he has gained weight. Patrick Ewing was still able to do more at 38 - and in all prior years. Never mind that backup power forward Reggie Evans (736 boards!) out-rebounded and a young Nick Collision even out-scored him thoroughly (not to speak of fellow forwards Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic). But thanks to Isiah Thomas falling in love with his play, James' agent managed to parlay a good stretch at the end of the season and a short playoff-run into a multi-year $30 million contract from the Knicks. From which he is living to this day. Now in Chicago. Likely not playing for 1 minute. Vitaly Potapenko was still in Seattle in a reduced role. Oh, and the Sonics also drafted a 19 years old center talent named Robert Swift with the 12th pick that year. Nate didn't seem to like the rookie all that much in training, so he played him in just 16 games averaging 5 minutes, thus giving Robert a lot of time to plan how to decorate his body in the future while he was sitting on the bench.

2005-06 season, Portland:

Driving down I-5 to take his new coaching job, Nate was now tasked working with center-forward Theo Ratliff (6'10"), Korean standout Ha Seung-Jin (7'3"), and Joel Przybilla (7'0"). None of them was a polished offensive player to carry any scoring load, or terribly healthy this season for that matter. Joel and Theo both missed about 25 games, Ha only appeared in 27. And the team had bigger issues than creating plays for center domination anyway.

2006-07 season, Portland:

Ratliff was moved, so the newly acquired Jamaal Magloire (6'11") in his one season with the team, F-C Raef LaFrentz (6'11"), Joel (in just 43 games), a bit of 7'1" Luke Schenscher (11 games) and another F-C with rookie LaMarcus Aldridge (6'11") had to man the 5 position. Portland again missed the playoffs, and the talk of the town was rookie of the year Brandon Roy.

2007-08 season, Portland:

Everything was supposed to become different with the #1 pick 7'0" rookie center prodigy Greg Oden, only he had to undergo knee surgery before the season as we all remember all too painfully and was sidelined the whole year. So coach Nate had to make do with another year of Joel (playing in 77 games and starting in all but 10 of them), Raef LaFrentz in his last healthy season, and some relief from 6'11" non-traditional forward-center Channing Frye just acquired in the draft day deal for shipped out high-scoring power forward Zach Randolph.

2008-09 season, Portland:

Finally Greg Oden was healthy, and his belated rookie season was about to begin. Nate and everybody in the organization marveled about how great Greg looked in training. And then, another injury a few minutes into the season stepping on the foot of fellow center prospect Andrew Bynum. Nice. A slow start into the year, foul trouble limiting his minutes, Channing also not completely healthy at the start of the season, so a lot of Joel and some LaMarcus on center. When Greg seemed to find his rhythm just before the All-Star break he was sidelined again for a month. Then some solid play in the return to the playoffs fronting the gigantic Yao Ming by both centers, but ultimately they were mostly used as defensive weapons. You know the result.

Other experience:

But wait, Nate was was also the defensive coordinator of the US Senior Men's Team in the Olypmics and World Championships, right? He must have picked up something there working for a few weeks with some of the top big men and coaches of the nation. Well, probably quite a bit, and new experiences and long discussions with some very good coaches and players definitely can't hurt. But in international ball most big men the US team encounters aren't that big by NBA standards. There is an advantage to having some more mobile players who can shoot from further outside and set moving picks, though of course a monster in the paint gobbling up rebounds also is nice. Here are the statistics from the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. Power forward Chris Bosh (138) got the same minutes as the best young center currently in the NBA in Dwight Howard (130). And a number of those came at center since he turned out to be the better defender against international competiton, with Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James playing power forward.

Similar at the 2006 World Championships in Japan, when the big guys besides Howard (121 minutes) and Bosh (109) where the mobile big men Brad Miller (50) and Elton Brand (157) to go alongside LeBron or Anthony.

Nate's coaching colleagues wouldn't mind. Coach K also isn't exactly known to have or play plenty of dominant real big men in his career at Duke (Boozer, Laettner, ...), and Mike D'Antoni had no problems to pass off players like Amare Stoudemire, Boris Diaw (6'8"), and now David Lee (6'9") as centers in his system.

2009-10 season, Portland:

And that brings us to the current season, again with reports of Greg Oden looking very good in training after his first full summer workout regimen and improvements in pre-season play, but still in foul trouble in the early going and with debatable involvement into the offensive schemes. With his time likely split about in half with Joel, and some occasional small-ball with LaMarcus at center.

Now I'm not really in favor of hiring a specialist to fix a weakness on the coaching staff, often causing big names to be thrown around who don't have to be better than who is currently working with Greg. Yes Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was a great player and did teach Andrew Bynum some tricks for a while, but he also taught the amazing Michael "Kandi Man" Olowokandi as a special assistant for the Clippers, Kwame Brown, Chris Mihm, ... to not much effect. Hakeem Olajuwon can't make Yao's foot healthy or even a healthy Yao spin around like he did. Patrick Ewing couldn't yet teach Howard his bread-and-butter baseline jumper. The players ultimately have to figure out what works for them on their own, while being trusted by the coach and involved in the team.

I'm also not saying Nate has to be a sub-par big man coach or doesn't know how to design plays for a center. At all. Just that he doesn't yet have much experience with a center on his team tasked and able to dominate either side of the court. So naturally, one might assume his strategies have been focused on other positions so far with the center as an also-ran on the floor. It will be interesting to see how that evolves while Nate and his staff try to make Oden into the Oden it hoped to get when drafting him.

Trade for Jose Calderon

2009-11-05T09:54:56Z

Jose Calderon

How about this trade?

Blake, Bayless and Outlaw for Calderon + something?

I think there is a little chance Toronto would accept it..Don't know if they would want Miller or Fernandez too. But rudy is really important for Portland and would be really good with Calderon. Also Calderon is fast and can hit the open 3 when roy penetates and has the skills to attack the rim.

Could this happen? Or am i just naive?

Set Blazer Rotations

2009-11-05T09:29:42Z

Roy, Rudy, Martell, LMA, Oden - I use that lineup in crunch time.

Rudy guards the PG, Roy guards the weaker SG/SF, Martell guards the better SG/SF, LMA – PF, Oden – C. Roy is generally the ball-handler late in games, this moves him to ball-handler position. This lineup limits our defensive liabilities/holes, while keeping tons of offensive talent on the court. Let the opponent try to match up with us, rather than letting the opponent dictate our lineup.

Miller, Roy, Martell, LMA, Oden – I try starting this unit consistently. Let them get on-court time together, and build some cohesion. I do think Miller and Roy can work, it just takes time and more comfort.

We need something solid to build on, I think this is a solid base for us, roster-wise.

Rudy, Outlaw, Joel, and Blake - Finishing the 9-man rotation. Howard can play when the bigs are in foul trouble.

Give Bayless+Cunningham minutes if you want to speed up their development…If I had to choose whose minutes to cut into it would be Blake and Howard, the veteran role-players we know what to expect from.

Cunningham+Bayless = Two great young talents who I’d like to see get in the mix. Hopefully the guys ahead of them can run up the score to get them some minutes. Bayless has been fairly solid, and what I have seen from Cunningham so far I have LOVED. Dante can straight up play.

SET BLAZER ROTATIONS

Blazersedge: FanPosts

Blazers Vs Spurs 11/6/09 Review

JD 11-7-2k9: R.A.M.B.O=AWESOME

Who wins in a car/moose collision?

The View from the Cheap Seats: Quick Notes on the Spurs game 11/6

Open Threading through the Early Games - 11/06

What's Your second favorite team?

What team besides the Blazers are fun to watch and root for?

Another Pro-Andre Post

John Hollinger on "what's wrong with the Blazers" from his 11/6 chat

Junk Genius 11/06/09

KP’s best chance to make a recipe for success is to….

New B-Roy is the Old Kobe

What Rotation, more like "What a Rotation"

If you want consistency, you can't platoon your point guards

What should Nate do about the point guard situation?

JD November 5/6 Roommate Edition

bedging from....

My own personal reality check

The Blazers attended a TEAM BUILDING workshop last year!

Stats 101: Whats The Deal? Let Me Explain...

First Rose Garden Game Redux...

A view from a couple completely objective viewer

Nate in the land of the giants

Trade for Jose Calderon

Set Blazer Rotations