Although it seems no Tony Parker trade will happen, it is a fact that Tony Parker was seen at the Benson Hotel in Portland last night. As much I love Batum, I would do Miller & Batum (and Rudy) for Parker. However, the Blazers are presumedly and thankfully too smart to take on Richard Jefferson's ridiculous contract. That contract was San Antonio's worst mistake in a very long time. Let's not make it our mistake.

To make it short, here it is:

Raymond Felton for Crash, because Denver needs a good SF, we need a good PG and the Nuggets have two of them AND we have a very good one in Batum already. If we could get Gallinari and Babbitt involved in it would be even better.

Don`t get me wrong, I really like Gerald Wallace, but it is not good for such a talented guy like Batum sittin on the bench at this stage of his career.

Would Utah be interesting in having Wes Matthews back? What's the value for these two (limited) players.

So it seems like Utah is in a bit of a bind here. I know there are rumors that they're looking for the PGOTF this draft, but unless they have a deal lined up with Harris, they should make a move, also do we know if they're that enamored with Kemba or Knight? It seems like they might want to add a center, seeing as they only have Jefferson (a 4/5) and two 4's who want to start in Millsap and Derick Favors. I could see them going after Kanter or the other C highly ranked and then grabbing Jimmer with the #12 pick. 

If they were to take a C, it sure seems like Millsap should be available, and seeing as they have no decent 2's at the moment, and there are none highly ranked in the draft, maybe they'd want to take Matthews back. Both have similar contracts I believe (that decrease significantly from here on out), Matthews was a fan favorite and fit their system well, and here he won't get tons of minutes IF we keep Roy. We could use a little more toughness, and Lamarcus can play 5.

POR: Miller/Roy/Wallace/Millsap/Aldridge

bench: draft pick b/u PG, Camby, Batum, Oden(?) etc.

I wouldn't mind following it with a trade w/Minnesota and possibly grab back Webster after sending Rudy, filler, and a prospect their way. 

There are a lot of “what-if’s” in sports. What if the Red Sox never sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees? What if cocaine had not destroyed the careers of most of the great basketball players the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s? What if Barry Bonds never used steroids? There are three great what-if’s for the Blazers: what if Walton’s feet and knees held up? What if they drafted Jordan instead of Bowie? And what if Brandon Roy and Greg Oden’s knees never betrayed them?** 

**The answers: multiple titles for both Walton and Jordan’s Blazer teams, and at least one or two Western Conference Finals appearances for the Roy/Aldridge/Oden squads. Just concede my un-provable hypothetical.

Across the blogosphere Blazer fans want action now.  Columns on OregonLive, by Dwight Jaynes on Comcast Sports Northwest,  Blazers Edge’s very own Ben Golliver and many fan posts are dedicated to exploring a trade for Steve Nash, Chris Paul, or someone of similar ilk. On the surface this makes sense: the Blazers are a veteran team and have made the playoffs the past three years, losing in the first round all three years. There are two ways to view the Blazers’ finishes the past three years: either a good team ready to make “the leap” to the next level, or a good but not great team needing to add a few more pieces to be a true contender. Apparently Paul Allen and company agree with Dwight and Ben who view the Blazers as the former.

However, the Blazers are not a good team ready to make “the leap” to contender status and no one trade will make them contenders. Instead, they are a good team still two or three pieces away from contending.

The Blazers’ biggest needs are at PG and in the frontcourt. Andre Miller, while a key player the past two seasons (and will be again this year, provided he is not moved via trade on draft night), is 35 and has logged over 1,000 career games including playoffs. He cannot space the floor due to his abysmal shooting, allowing defenses to sag down and double our shooters and LaMarcus Aldridge (look how many crucial playoff minutes he lost to Roy). Rudy and Roy are both capable backup ball handlers and creators, but only for 15-25 minutes a game.

Just a disclaimer: I like Andre Miller as a point guard. He has tremendous passing ability (he is 7th all-time in assists) and possibly the best post-up guard in the league. However, Portland was only 16th in the league in assists (though that does not mean a great deal; the league leaders were Dallas and Houston, they only averaged 2.6 more assists per game). The real problem Miller creates is shooting the ball. The Blazers were 13th in the league in threes per game at 6.3, but were 21th in three percentage at 34.5%. The Blazers were even worse in effective field goal percentage ranking 22thin the league at 48.6.** Having a point guard who can shoot will help space the floor and increase not only our field goal percentage but also our offensive efficiency.

** Effective field goal percentage measures field goal percentage but takes into account the fact three-point field goals are worth more than 2-point field goals.

As for the frontcourt, Aldridge is the only legitimate big man the Blazers have. Oden has “franchise center” potential, but his knees make it unlikely he will ever fulfill his considerable promise (remember, even when Walton won titles with the Celtics it was as a backup). Marcus Camby is 37 and washed up. He is no longer the double-double, shot-blocking force he was in his days with the Knicks, Nuggets and even Clippers. His body has betrayed him the way all giants are betrayed; his massive frame can no longer endure the pounding it could when he was 27. Gerald Wallace is capable of backing up Aldridge, but as the starting SF pulling double duty is unwise over a full season. The playoffs exposed Batum as too small to play down low regularly.

Several key rebounding and block statistics back up how poor the Blazers frontcourt was last year. The Blazers were 21st in the NBA last year in total blocks and were tied for 20th in blk/gm at 4.4. The rebounding numbers were not much better. The one area the Blazers excelled were rebounds on offense. They were 4th in offensive rebounds per game at 12.1, and 3rd in keeping possessions their alive by holding opponents to 29.1 defensive rebounds per game. However, they were 17th in the league in rebounding rate, were out rebounded by -.4 rbd/gm (17th), allowed opponents 10.6 offensive rebounds (11th) and were dead last in defensive rebounds at 27.2/game, allowing opponents to keep possessions alive.

All is not lost, however. The Blazers are set for the foreseeable future at SG, SF and PF. Wesley Matthews was the biggest surprise of last season (and made his 5-year deal look like a steal), Gerald Wallace is a force on both ends of the floor and Aldridge is an All-NBA player. Fernandez and Batum provide positional versatility, shooting, ball handling and defense off the bench (Rudy brings the ball handling and shooting, Batum the defense; between them they can play the 1-3 positions on the floor). Aldridge is clearly an offensive force; he raised his scoring average by a full four points from the 2009-2010 campaign. Using the general model of an 8 or 9-man rotation the Blazers have five solid rotation players already on the roster.** Six if you count Andre Miller (and I do), but unfortunately due mainly to his age but also his poor shooting and the Blazers lack of legitimate post players, it is unlikely he will be around when the Blazers are ready to contend for a championship. Roy’s knees make him too large of a question mark to be counted as a solid role player. When healthy, he is one of the best in the game. His problem is staying healthy.

**The last three franchisees to win championships (Celtics, Mavericks and Lakers) all had 8 or 9-man rotations on their championship teams; “rotation player” being defined as someone who averaged 10+ min in the postseason.

This is not merely a blog post pointing out all of the Blazers’ deficiencies. There are certainly ways to improve this team. As in every sport, it starts with the draft. Reports are the Blazers’ front office has its short list down to 5 players for the 21st pick. One of my favorite games is playing General Manager. If I am Larry Miller, Chad Buchanan, et. al., here are the 5 players I would have my eye on for the 21st pick (this assumes the Blazers do not trade up, as word around the league has them trying to do). Each player was chosen for three reasons: overall skill set (how a player’s skill set fits Blazers’ needs), positional need and potential availability.

• Kenneth Faried, PF, Morehead St. Measurables: 6’8”, 225 lbs., 9’ standing reach, 7’ wingspan. The best rebounder in the country (he averaged 13 a game his sophomore and junior seasons, and 14.5 last season), he has a great motor, is an explosive leaper and great shot blocker (2.3/game last season). He can develop his offensive game with the help of Aldridge and can add bulk in a professional strength program. He comes in immediately as LA’s primary backup, can play the 4 when the Blazers go small and will drastically improve the Blazers’ rebounding and blocking numbers.
• Markieff Morris, PF/C, Kansas. Measurables: 6’9”, 240 lbs., 8’11” stranding reach, 6’11” wingspan. A tenacious defender, he would bring the Blazers toughness, an offensive post presence, would help stretch the floor with his mid-range jumper and three point shooting and is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. It is unlikely he will be there when the Blazers pick at 21, but if he is the Blazers would face an interesting decision. He could play an undersized center as well if the Blazers need (at the very least he would be a better third big than Chris Johnson).
• Nikola Vucevic, C, USC. Measurables: 6’11¾”, 260 lbs., 9’5” standing reach, 7’5” wingspan. One of the only true centers in the draft, he would bring size, rebounding and scoring to the Blazers’ front line. Also, for those reasons he will likely be gone before the Blazers pick at 21. However, he could start this year alongside LA, allowing Camby to come off the bench due to his advanced age to limit the wear and tear on his body. Possibly the best pic of the three bigs, as he has the best chance to be a long-term starter.
• Norris Cole, PG, Cleveland St. Measurables: 6’2”, 175 lbs., 8’2” standing reach, 6’2” wingspan. A true point guard, Cole would be a creator, bringing passing, floor vision and most importantly excellent long-range shooting to the Blazers. He is also good defensively, averaging 2.2 steals last year. He’s not huge, but then neither is Chris Paul. He is essentially Andre Miller with a deadeye three-point shot. If the Blazers draft him, he could spend the first half of the season learning under Miller, then the Blazers could use Miller’s expiring contract to acquire a frontcourt player at the trade deadline from a team looking for cap relief.
• Darius Morris, PG, Michigan. Measurables: 6’5”, 190 lbs, 8’6” standing reach, 6’8” wingspan. Morris’ best traits are his size (allowing him to overwhelm smaller PG’s defensively) and his floor vision. He’s a decent shooter, however, he still needs to work on being able to go left and on his three point shot. He would give the Blazers one of the biggest backcourts in the NBA (he, Matthews, Rudy and Roy are all 6’5” or 6’6”), and tenacity on the defensive end. The biggest questions for the Blazers are if he can develop his left hand and three point range, given the likelihood of a work stoppage and the stunted time for development. 

The Blazers also own the 51st pick in the draft. If the Blazers draft Cole, Darius Morris or Vucevic they should consider using it (or trading up in the second round) to acquire Jordan Williams, PF from Maryland. He is 6’9”, 250 lbs., is an elite rebounder, tough around the basket and is a good finisher. He would give the Blazers size and rebounding behind Aldridge. He is probably the best choice in the second round regardless of who the Blazers draft in the first round, as the past several seasons have shown the Blazers can never have too many big men.

The other possibility for improving the Blazers’ roster is via trade. The most popular ideas being thrown out are trades for Steve Nash, Chris Paul or Tony Parker. Raymond Felton is a distant fourth. Any Chris Paul ideas are idiotic at best. The NBA currently controls New Orleans, they are not going to allow the Hornets to trade the best pure point guard in the NBA who doubles as the only attractive piece to a prospective buyer for players of the Blazers’ bench. Raymond Felton is an available option, but isn’t much better of a three point shooter than Miller. His career one-third mark on threes, while an improvement over Miller, is not what the Blazers are looking for.

Tony Parker is the best option of the four, but not by much. He only has a .315 3-pt average for his career and is wildly inconsistent. There’s no guarantee he is able to space the floor in the way Nash would be able to with his shooting ability.

This ridiculous Steve Nash trade bandwagon deserves its own paragraph. Does the math work? Yes. Has Nash been a great PG over the last several seasons? Absolutely. Should the Blazers trade for him? Absolutely not.

This is for several reasons: first, Nash is 37 with a bad back. Do Blazer fans really trust the Blazer’s training staff with his back? Look at how they have handled Roy and Oden’s knees alone. Second Nash is 37 with a bad back. Any team seriously interested in a 37 year old point guard with a bad back has to fully believe they are only one piece away from a championship. The Blazers are not one piece away. As covered above, they are at least two or three pieces away from contending for a championship. Third, the price to acquire Nash will be much too steep. The Suns are currently in between rebuilding and contending and Nash is the linchpin on which their decision hangs. If they trade him they will be in full rebuilding mode, and are going to want to acquire assets in exchange. To start, a trade would be built on a foundation of Miller (for cap relief) and Batum (for talent), as well as a first-round pick this year or in the future (due to the Gerald Wallace trade and the Stepien Rule, I am not sure if the Blazers are allowed to trade their first round pick this year). Depending on what the Suns think Nash and Batum are worth, they may ask for an additional piece as well, such as Rudy. The Blazers’ deficiencies rebounding and in the frontcourt are too big for Steve Nash alone to overcome. Steve Nash + a depleted bench to give him little to no rest is not a recipe for success. The other factor no one is talking about is the lockout. If next season is lost (which it most likely will be) Nash will be 38 when the season starts. The Blazers are not going to be contending with a 38-year-old PG with a bad back.

The needs are clear: at least one rebounding/shot blocking big man and a point guard who can shoot the ball. If the Blazers come out of Thursday night’s draft without having filled at least one of those two needs this season could end up being a very long one. Miller and Camby are among the oldest players in the NBA and an injection of youth at point guard and in the frontcourt are badly needed. Unfortunately there are no quick fixes in the draft this year and the uncertainty with the labor situation. The Blazers can start to fill some holes, especially with as many elite rebounder in this draft available to them. They don’t have to be All-Stars, they just have to help plug some holes.

Uhhh. like I never started a junk drawer before... but with so many crazy posts happening to day, its hard to post and repost on each one. So what do you say we post anything and everything Draft related here so that we dont push out posts before they get a chance to let people see them.

So this drawer could have any draft related links, trade scenarios, or ideas or feelings you might want to get out about our picks. Anything draft related put it here. And remember, keep it clean-no swearing and also keep it cool. Be nice to each other and have fun. Its a big day!! Draft Day 2011!!

See ya down below.

Peace,

CaveJunctionBlazer 

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=5re72rf

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Parker is our best option for PGOTF....and we need to do this in the next 24 hours.

1) He's a known commodity (unlike any potential rookie we draft).  Parker has won rings and has been an all-star.

2) He fits our style of play.  Parker can penetrate, can create his own shot, and is a reasonably good playmaker and distribtuor.  Parker has been an all-star on a team that plays at a slower pace.  Some other guys that have been rumored to be the PGOTF are good players who don't seem to fit Nate's system.  For example, Devin is a good player but, like Dre, can't shoot.  Felton needs to play up-tempo to be effective.  Hinrich isn't a playmaker. 

3) He isn't too old.  Parker just turned 29.  He has several good years left (and is signed as long as Roy and LA).  If, as many have suggested, PA wants to win now (as opposed to starting all over), then the Blazers will need to contend in the next 2-4 years.  We won't contend for a title next year because Oden won't be 100% and this team hasn't even won a playoff series.  But they might contend starting in 12-13.  Nash will be too old be then.

4) He's available without gutting the team.  If the rumors are true that SA is looking for a lottery pick and change, then we can probably acquire him without giving up our core.  CP3 isn't available (not without giving up LA).  Getting Monta will also probably require giving up LA.  Even Nash seems expense. 

5) This may be our last good chance at getting a high quality, proven PG.  Unless we blow up the roster, Portland will not have a high draft pick for several years.  It takes luck to find an all-star PG (like Parker and Rondo) late in the first round.  As long as Roy and LA are here, we won't have sufficient cap space to pursue a high-quality PG (if one is available) during free agency.  Finally, we have tradeable assets right now.  Miller (or more accurately) his contract will never be more valuable on the trade market than right now.  Wes's trade value will probably never be higher (do you really think he will make another huge leap in his development?).  Batum is on a rookie contract and still seen around the leauge as having loads of potential.  In a year or two, if he has lived up to his potential his new contract will be harder to trade.  If he hasn't lived up to his potential...well, his trade value will drop like Rudy's. 

The bottom line...if we can get Parker in a three-way trade that nets SA a lottery pick (and change) for Miller + Matthews + 21 + filler (read: Babbitt, Williams, Armon, Europeans), then we have to do it.   Batum could start at 2 (assuming Roy doesn't make a miracle recovery).   I'd probably even trade Miller + Batum to net us Parker.  We desperately need a good PG and we already have Crash at 3.  Either way, this is the time to get our PGOTF...and he is Parker. 

What about a trade for Tony Parker?  He wants to play for a contender what better place than Portland.  I am thinking Andre Miller with $7.4 million and Wes Matthews at $6.5 million would close to Tony Parker's salary at $13.5.  I hate to give up Wes Matthews, but it is a position where the Blazers are loaded with young talent and we still have some proven talent.  The Spurs would get a quality point guard with room to rebuild and a solid young two guard in Wes Matthews!  The Blazers would get a solid point guard that has several good years left that can push the tempo and score at will!

I found a link from PRS that whisks you off to the 2011 draft simulator, over at real gm.  I decided to take a not really realistic, but this is how I'd do it approach.  After all, doesn't this annual, autosemantic event compel us to put on our collective thinking caps and ponder "What if?"  I'll give you an example of one of the more unexpected selections I've made: Bismack Biyombo selected at the number two spot, by the Minnesota Timberwolves .  I know, I know, It's completely nuts.  But hey, what do expect from David Kahn?

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/draft_simulator/view/15333/

Please make this happen, Ive been thinking of trades of ever sense the off season ended in hopes of improving the blazers title hopes without mortaging all of our future. I've explored trades for Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, Steph Curry, Steve Nash, Andre Iguodala,  Tony Parker, and Dwight Howard to guys like Beno Udrih, Andris Biedrins, JJ Redick and many others but today after hearing how the Spurs are listening to offers about both Parker and Hill I created a trade scenario that would work for both teams

 Batum/ Mills/ C. Johnson

for

Hill/ Splitter

While Batum has with out a doubt the highest ceiling of any player in the trade i believe Splitter has the second highest, in limited minutes he had a PER of 16 in his rookie year, though he is 26. I think he could put up around 13-15 ppg and 7-9 rpg anywhere else in the league. He simply had to fight for minutes against Tim Duncan, Matt Bonner, Antonio Mcdyess, and Dejaun Blair, There is just not enough minutes to go around. Hill is your basic all around PG. He is a better defender, shooter and athlete then Andre which would give us a perfect yin and yang, with andre's passing and finesse style.

This would give San Antonio a better all around player then an aging and often injured richard jefferson,  as well as giving them depth back at PG and C in Patty and C.J. Nic is a mirror image of San Antonio looks for from his character to his gritty playing style. Plus wouldn't this make Tony Parker delighted to see the team bring in a fellow frenchman while trading away his competition for minutes?

I know most of have always said either batum gets us a superstar or he stays in portland but we need to face the idea that it doesnt seem like that'll happen especially without a slew of other players. so  consider the idea what if he brought us two players at positions of need, who are just entering their primes at 25 and 26? oh and both have no injury history

our rotation

1 - Miller 28/ Hill 20

2 - Mathews 28/ Fernandez 16

3 - Wallace 34/ Roy 18

4 - Aldridge 36/ Splitter ?

5 - Camby 28/ Oden ?

Splitter minutes will be determined by when Oden plays as well as how much and long he can play for, And with oden out wallace would likely spend atleast ten more minutes per game playing the 4 which would open up more minutes for brandon and rudy at the 3.