FanPost

UPDATE: Tiebreaker status! (Now with Portland TV info!)

As these words spill out onto the display Fivethirtyeight’s sims give the Blazers three-to-one over the Nuggets and an average of a one-game lead for making the playoffs, with nobody else really in the running.

…But after last night’s road squeaker, it seems wise to suppose that Denver’s in it to win it. Whatever they have—or haven’t—gotten out of the Nurkić-Plumlee trade, it’s fair to say that they traded Purgatory-bound locker room poison for a massive heap of hustle. On the other hand Nurkić is grateful for his release from that Purgatory, so the Blazers made out okay, too.

The sum of all this analysis is that there’s really not much margin, and that means that we could stand a peek at the tiebreakers.

The short version

Portland’s games against Denver and Houston next week are must-win games if the Blazers want to prevent the race for 8th from ending with a photo-finish. Even if Portland loses both, they can remain masters of their own destiny.

If Dame stays dialed-in, or if Aminu and Harkless dial back in, no reason short of injury or catastrophically bad officiating stands in the way of a 11-2 or 10-3 finish. The Blazers leave even a good Denver club in their wake, laugh briefly in Nate Silver’s general direction, and finish at .500.

If you wagered on the Blazers to beat the preseason over-under, well… oops. Sorry about that. Better luck next year.

The tiebreakers

  1. Season series: 3-1 or 2-2, dependent upon next week’s result
  2. Intradivision record: Portland holds a 3½ game lead; Portland has 6 more games to play, Denver 3
  3. Intraconference record: Portland holds a 1½ game lead of three fewer losses; Portland has 11 more games to play, Denver 8
  4. Record against WC playoff-bound opponents: Portland holds a 1½ game lead with 4 more games to play, while Denver has 3 more games to play; total GPs in this record will be identical

The other two tiebreakers are left off for the sake of brevity.

Don’t-miss games

They all count, really, especially for fans who want to see their team prove that they weren’t overrated after all, just burdened by awful teething issues.

  • Sun. 26 Mar. 7:30 PDT, at Lakers (KGW, 2nd of B2B)
  • Tue. 28 Mar. 7:00 PDT, vs. Denver (CSNNW)
  • Thu. 30 Mar. 7:30 PDT, vs. Houston (TNT)
  • Tue. 4 Apr. 7:30 PDT, at Utah (CSN & ESPN, 2nd of B2B)
  • Sat. 8 Apr. 7:00 PDT, vs. Utah (KGW)

Other upcoming Blazers games not on CSN

  • Thu. 23 Mar. 7:00 PDT vs. Knicks (KGW)
  • Thu. 6 Apr. 7:30 PDT vs. Minnesota (TNT)
  • Wed. 12 Apr. 7:30 PDT, Game 82 vs. New Orleans (KGW & ESPN)

Denver’s only TV appearances here will be on the 28th, and on 2 April at Miami, on NBA TV.

Postscript: context

The games to be played against surely motivated opponents amount to the one against Denver at home—and 2 home-and-away against Utah, who currently hold a one-game (and shrinking) lead on the Clippers for the 4 seed. There also remain 3 games against Minnesota and one against the Pelicans, none of which will allow the Blazers slack. Game 81 is at home against San Antonio, and we’d best hope that the seeding between Golden State and San Antonio is well-sorted by then, allowing for some hope that the Spurs will rest up instead of bringing their Juggernaut.

Denver plays 8 of their remaining 12 games on the road, and the upcoming game at Portland kicks off a five-game trip, including another at Houston and at Miami, which is currently Portland’s analogue in the East.

The Blazers’ upcoming schedule is no pushover, but neither is Denver’s… and the Blazers have a lot more home games going for them.

Cautious optimism is the way to go.