FanPost

"No Good Free Agents Come to Portland": An Exploration

The mass exodus of Portland’s free agents this offseason has reignited the debate about the Trail Blazers’ ability to draw free agents to Rip City. Is it the weather or the lack of social opportunities for young millionaires? Or is it an unfair stigma perpetuated by the media seeking an easy soundbite?

In looking at this somewhat objectively, I wondered if Portland’s problem is worse than other NBA teams. You can see the methodology and how I determined an "A" level player below, but let’s start with the conclusion.

Winning seems to be the most important thing

Portland and other small-market teams are not a destination for high-profile free agents. But large-markets are not necessarily the primary reason a player chooses to sign with a team. Teams that offered the greatest chance to win signed the most top-level free agents.

From 2010-2014, Miami signed both the most free agents overall (42) and the most "A" or "B" level free agents (11). Miami is only the 19th largest market in the league, but there are several other obvious draws. In 2010, the Heat offered an opportunity to win by creating cap space and going all-in on two of the top free agents on the market—LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Miami filled out its roster with key role players like Ray Allen, Shane Battier, and Mike Miller via free agency.

Free Agent Signings by Market Rank

Dallas (eighth-largest market), New York (#1) and Houston (#10) have had success drawing high-profile free agents as well. The Mavs and Rockets coupled those large-market resources with perennial championship contenders and an organizational desire to win. The Knicks—despite all of the dysfunction—had three playoff appearances and a 54-win season during that period while also being the largest media market in the country and a world-class metropolitan area.

But winning isn’t the only thing

At the other end of the spectrum, a mix of large- and small-market teams struggled to draw the big names. Oklahoma City (#28) has never recruited an "A" or "B" level free agent. Three of the top markets—Chicago (#5), Toronto (#6) and Philadelphia (#7)—only signed one top-level player each during that five-year period. Smaller markets like Portland (#23), Utah (#25) and New Orleans (#30) only managed to land a single "B" level free agent each.

Free Agent Signings by Team

Oklahoma City, Portland and Salt Lake City suffer the most due to locale. None offer the perks of a major metropolitan area. None offer a rich African-American culture, especially in SLC where only 2.7 percent of the population is black. Only the Jazz (in both 2013 and 2014) have had salary cap room during this period to even test the assumption.

The large-market teams have their own challenges. Philadelphia has been mostly awful during this period—save for a miracle run to the Eastern Conference semifinals in 2012—including back-to-back sub-20 win seasons. Toronto has terrible weather during the NBA season and creates income and tax complications for professional athletes. Chicago always seems to be in a state of flux, the chances for success resting on the fragile knees of Derrick Rose.

New Orleans seems like the franchise with the best opportunity to break the cycle. The city has a lively social scene, a vibrant black community and one of the league’s newest superstars in Anthony Davis.

Bigger isn’t always better

The bottom-five markets have had mixed success.

  • Milwaukee is the 26th-largest market and ranks 22nd in total free agents signed with only two "B"-level signings.
  • San Antonio is the 27th-largest market, but ranks 13th in total free agents signed, including five "B"-level players. The Spurs made two NBA Finals appearances during the period, winning it all in 2013-14.
  • Oklahoma City is the 28th-largest market and ranks 30th in total free agents signed. OKC didn’t sign a single "A" or "B" level player from 2010-2014, yet the Thunder played for the NBA title in 2012 and made the Western Conference finals two other times. OKC has found success in developing its own players and landing two of the NBA's brightest stars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook via the draft.
  • Memphis is the 29th-largest market and ranks 23rd in total free agent signings. They’ve had one "A"-level signing (Zach Randolph in 2011) and four "B"-level signings.
  • New Orleans is the smallest market in the league, yet they rank ninth in total free agent signings. However, only one of those was a "B"-level player. This says more about the Pelicans roster flux than qualifying as a destination team.

What’s it mean for Portland?

I believe the data verifies exactly what most fans believe. The current NBA climate favors its superstars first, followed by its large-market franchises. If LeBron James or Kevin Durant decided to sign with Portland or Utah, I would bet both franchises would become top free agent destinations in short order.

However, the model of building through the draft and signing "B" or "C" level role players will be the best opportunity for most NBA teams to compete for a title. If there is any solace for Blazers fans, it’s that misery loves company.

Portland is one of 20 franchises that haven’t won a title since 1980. Of the 10 different teams that have won a crown during that period, only Golden State (2015), Dallas (2011), and Philadelphia (1983) have won a single title, meaning seven teams have split 32 of the last 35 NBA championships.

The details

First, I pulled all free agent activity from 2010 through 2014 from NBA.com. During this time period, 946 total free agent transactions took place with 537 players participating in the process.

Since not all free agents are created equal, I decided on Basketball Reference’s Win Share (WS) as a way to separate players by class. We can argue the usefulness of WS as a statistic until the cows come home, but for this purpose, it provides a consistent measure of a player’s value and players seemed to grade out as expected.

Player Grades Based on Win Share

I used the win share from the season prior to free agency to provide each player with a letter grade. For example, Amar’e Stoudamire receives his actual value as a 2010 free agent (A-level) vs. his value in 2015 (C-level). Here’s the breakdown:

  • Players with a WS of 9.0 or higher were given an "A" level grade. Typical players include LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, etc.
  • Players with a WS between 5.0-8.9 were given a "B" level grade. Typical players include Ray Allen (2010), Marc Gasol (2011), Paul Milsap (2013), etc.
  • Players with a WS between 0.0-4.9 were given a "C" level grade. Typical players include Barron Davis (2012), Rudy Fernandez (2012), Antawn Jamison (2013) etc.
  • Players with a WS below 0.0 were given a "D" grade. Typical players include Ronnie Price (2014), Joe Smith (2011), Lou Amundson (2011), etc.