Comparable Analysis : Dante Exum

As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;

1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.

2.) I have expanded the European player database

3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.

4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.

5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are

C - David Robinson

PF - Tim Duncan

SF - LeBron James

SG - Manu Ginobili

PG - Chris Paul

The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Dante Exum 76.5 78 196 6.4% 8.5 9.5 81.5 103
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Dante Exum 134.5 137.5 31.5 34.5 0 10.75 3.19
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Dante Exum -10 0.43% 0.42 0.82 2.24 0.12 0.52 0

Dante Exum is 6-6 and 196 lbs, with a 6.4% body fat. His weight is 10 lbs less than you expect, and his body fat % is right at the expectation, so fairly well proportioned, though he does have a bit of a slight frame. His wing span is 81.5" and his reach is 103", both of which are within an inch of what one would expect. He has a nice vertical of of 34.5", was 0.12 sec faster than expected in the sprint, and 0.52 faster than expected in the agility drill. So in aggregate you would say he has good length and athleticism, but he is not exceptional in either.

Comp Score Standard Deviation % of Comps who are League Average or Better
54.57% 16.77% 72.50%

2.50% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
John Wall 85-100
Stephon Marbury 12.50% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Derrick Rose
Nick Calathes
Terrell Brandon Brandon Knight 70 - 85
Jay Williams Richard Hamilton Archie Goodwin 30.00% Above Average to Good NBA player
Bob Sura Allan Houston Gary Neal
Michael Redd Speedy Claxton Jalen Rose
Greg Anthony Toney Douglas Khalid El-Amin 55 - 70
Ricky Davis Bonzi Wells 27.50% Average NBA player
Evan Fournier Jonny Flynn Malik Hairston
Khalid Reeves Dion Glover Charles Jenkins
Ray McCallum Javaris Crittenton Tony Wroten 45 - 55
Corey Benjamin Reggie Williams (VMI) 20.00% Below Average NBA Player
Terrence Rencher Manny Harris
Harold Miner Sergey Karasev
Rodney Buford Andre Barrett 30 - 45
2.50% Poor NBA player
Tony Dumas 20 - 30
5.00% Not NBA quality
Dajuan Wagner
Kiwane Garris 0 - 20

Dante Exum is the big mystery in this draft. He has not played in an established organized league, or university, the extent of his experience comes from the U-19 World Championship's in 2013, the U-17 World Championships in 2012, the adidas Nations tournament, and the NIKE Hoop Summit. To generate his comps, I used his performance in the 2013 U-19 WC. My objective more than anything with this is to try and understand how Exum plays the game of basketball, and to use that to determine other players who play like him. This is obviously a limited perspective, but I do believe it does have value. Just as a point of reference I had only 11 college games from Kyrie Irving, and from that I was able to make solidly accurate projections. that of course came from a known context, NCAA basketball, the U-19 is an entirely different context. So I believe that the comps are pretty good, but of all the stat projections this is the one that I would have the least degree of confidence.
When you look at Exum's comps he has a nice comp score of 54.57, but a higher than typical SD of 16.77. Given that he still has 72.5% of his comp who were at least league average for their first 5 NBA seasons. At first glance it is clear a number of smaller PG's comp to him, including John Wall, Derrick Rose, Stephon Marbury, Terrell Brandon, Nick Calethes, Jay Williams, Greg Anthony, Toney Douglas, and Speedy Claxton. The bigger players tend to be more scorers, with some passing skills such as Jalen Rose, Allen Houston, Bob Sura, Brandon Knight, Ricky Davis, Dion Glover, Khalid Reeves, Malik Hairston. From this it is clear that Exum will be player who has the ball in his hands a lot, and will be solid at getting to and finishing at the rim. This group has some Ok 3 point shooters, but in aggregate they are not a group known for deep shooting, but rather players who are more comfortable inside the 3 point line, and are good at drawing fouls. Of the non-PG types I think the comps of Bob Sura, Richard Hamilton, Bonzi Wells, Michael Redd, Jalen Rose, Ricky Davis and Allen Houston are all quite revealing. Sura, Hamilton, and Wells are averaged taking 60% of their shots inside 16', and none of the 3 were ever significant 3 point shooters. Rose, Redd, Davis and Houston all shot lots of 3's late in their career, but early in there career they shot at least 1/2 shots inside 16'. In aggregate Exum has 4 players that were a 1 or a 2 (Wall, Brandon, Marbury, and Rose) and several players that were a #2 or a #3's on decent or better teams (Wells, Houston, Redd, Rose, and Hamilton). At the same time I would say there are only 3 really excellent players in this group (Rose, Brandon, and Wall).

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Dante Exum 1 5.55 14.49 38.3% 4.46 9.77 45.6% 0.90 3.07 29.5% 2.94 4.41 67.0% 48.6% 44.8%
Dante Exum 2 5.72 13.81 41.5% 4.59 9.88 46.7% 1.03 3.25 31.7% 2.68 3.82 70.2% 50.1% 46.8%
Dante Exum 3 5.59 13.88 40.4% 4.48 9.61 46.7% 1.01 3.41 29.5% 2.74 3.74 73.5% 49.2% 45.6%
3 Year Average 5.63 14.03 40.2% 4.51 9.76 46.4% 0.99 3.26 30.3% 2.78 3.96 70.4% 49.3% 45.8%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Dante Exum 1 1.16 2.81 3.91 4.43 1.36 0.35 2.73 1.71 3.43 14.57
Dante Exum 2 1.01 3.02 3.96 4.40 1.36 0.32 2.51 1.82 3.10 14.94
Dante Exum 3 0.88 3.10 3.91 4.60 1.33 0.29 2.65 1.78 3.23 14.73
3 Year Average 1.0 3.0 3.9 4.5 1.4 0.3 2.6 1.78 3.2 14.8
Season Usage Stats
Dante Exum 1 3.8% 9.0% 6.2% 21.3% 2.4% 0.8% 21.4% 23.7%
Dante Exum 2 3.3% 9.6% 6.3% 21.0% 2.5% 0.7% 20.4% 22.8%
Dante Exum 3 2.8% 9.9% 6.2% 22.6% 2.4% 0.7% 21.2% 23.3%
3 Year Average 3.3% 9.5% 6.3% 21.6% 2.4% 0.7% 20.9% 23.2%
Season Advanced Measurements
Dante Exum 1 12.12 96.4 107.9 0.2 0.6 0.76 0.035
Dante Exum 2 13.02 99.1 107.9 0.7 0.8 1.51 0.059
Dante Exum 3 12.55 97.1 106.8 0.9 0.8 1.73 0.053
3 Year Average 12.60 97.6 107.5 0.6 0.7 1.37 0.050

Initially over his first 3 years Exum projects to be clearly below average offensively with an Ortg of only 97.6. As a shooter he is a poor 3 point shooter, and he shoots far to many for his level of skill. He is effective as a 2 point shooter, and I think this reflects that, much like his bigger comps, he take the majority of his 2 pt shots inside 16'. Overall Exum has a high turnover rate, coupled with a high usage rate, and a mediocre 3 point shot, and all of that explains is poor ORtg. His defensive projections is slightly better, but still low 107.5. The main strength is his ability to create possession changes through steals, but he is a poor rebounder. Overall he projects to be clearly below average for his first 3 NBA seasons. I would grade Exum clearly below Embiid, Parker, Saric, and Smart. The hard part is to place into the context of the next group of players, Vonleh, Randle, and Wiggins. First of all this entire comp analysis is all based upon some hard to contextualize international tournaments, and based upon a very small number of games. I think it is fair to say that Exum has some clear upside, and a fair chance of being a very special player. He also has a 55% probability of being league average or worse. His group of Above Average to Good NBA Players is an OK group, but certainly not one that would make you turn and look. At this point we are talking possibly taking him #5 (after Embiid, Parker, Saric, and Smart). There is not a single player in that above average to good group that I would consider worthy of taking at #5. So based upon his stats, and his aggregate comp list I would look at Exum after Wiggins, Vonleh, but perhaps on par or maybe higher than Randle.
Most Probable Best Case Outcome : Stephon Marbury
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Tony Wroten / Harold Miner
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Bob Sura / Jalen Rose / Ricky Davis
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