Comparable Analysis : Noah Vonleh

As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;

1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.

2.) I have expanded the European player database

3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.

4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.

5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are

C - David Robinson

PF - Tim Duncan

SF - LeBron James

SG - Manu Ginobili

PG - Chris Paul

The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Noah Vonleh 80 81.5 247 7.3% 9.75 11.75 88.25 108
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Noah Vonleh 139 145 31 37 11.45 3.28
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Noah Vonleh 15 -2.77% 3.17 0.91 1.2 0.09 0.26

Noah Vonleh is 6-9 1/2" 247 lbs. For his height he weighs 15 lbs more han average, but his body fat % is 7.3% which is 2.77% less than average, so this extra weight is muscle and not fat. He has a wingspan of 88-1/4, which is 3.17" longer than average, and his 108" reach is nearly an inch longer than average. You would clearly describe him as long. He has a better than average vertical, and is quicker and more agile than average, so he is clearly a good athlete.

Comp Score Standard Deviation % of Comps who are League Average or Better
55.37% 14.27% 77.50%

0.00% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
85 - 100
Elton Brand 17.50% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Alonzo Mourning Greg Monroe
Clarence Weatherspoon Rudy Gay
Chris Bosh Keith Van Horn 70 - 85
J.J. Hickson Mike Miller DeJuan Blair Derrick Williams 40.00% Above Average to Good NBA Player
Raef LaFrentz Jeff Green Nikola Vucevic LaPhonso Ellis
Derrick Favors Marvin Williams Jamal Mashburn LaPhonso Ellis
Brian Grant Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Al-Farouq Aminu Channing Frye 55 - 70
Luc Mbah A Moute Jumaine Jones 20.00% Average NBA player
Pat Garrity Chris Mihm
John Wallace Erick Dampier
Glen Davis Samaki Walker 45 - 55
Dickey Simpkins Wayne Simien 20.00% Below Average NBA Player
Arnett Moultrie David Vaughn
Charles O'Bannon Mario Bennett
Mark Hendrickson 30 - 45
2.50% Poor NBA player
Patrick O'Bryant 20 - 30
0.00% Not NBA quality
0 - 20

Noah Vonleh's comp score is a very solid 55.37, with a fairly average SD of 14.27, and over 3/4's of his comps would be described as league average or better. He has 3 comps who would be described as a #1 or a #2 (Mourning, Bosh, and Brand), which is very solid. When evaluating his comps you see a group of solid shot blockers (Brand, Mourning, LaFrentz, Bosh, Mihm and Favors), juxtiposed with other C/PF types who were poor shot blockers (Van Horn, Grant, Weatherspoon, Monroe, Hickson, Davis). At the same time you see solid rebounders, partuclarly on the defensive glass (Brand, Monroe, Hickson, Grant, Blair, Vucevic, Aminu, Bosh and LaFrentz) contrasted by big's who were below average rebounders (Van Horn, Gay, Green, and Frye). You also see a number of players who were very good in the paint, and a nice group of players who had deeper range to their jump shot (Bosh, Van Horn, Gay, LaFrentz, Mashburn, Frye, and Mike Miller). Finally you have several good passing big men (Brand, Gay, Miller, Bosh, & Mashburn) and a group of poor passing big men (Weatherspoon, Mihm, LaFrentz, Van Horn).
All of this makes for a very eclectic mix. Clearly within the context of his comps, Vonleh has comps all around him, and he is clearly in the middle of all that. This indicates that Vonleh will evolve into a player with a multitude of skills, but he will not be exceptional at any. A broad array of skills, but not great at any of them makes him a likely case of a #3 to a 5, probably a #4, but a player who can play a number of positions. Considering his length and athleticism, I would say he could guard 3 positions. As a group his comps would not be described as high volume offensive players, but when evaluating the entire group they are solid complimentary offensive players. As a group this is not one that would be described as strong defensively, but they have the ability to rebound, block shots, but perhaps a little foul prone. Overall as shooters this group looks solid, with some range, but as a group a wide range of usage rates.

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Noah Vonleh 1 4.98 10.49 47.5% 4.61 9.91 46.6% 0.26 0.79 32.5% 3.02 4.21 71.8% 52.2% 46.9%
Noah Vonleh 2 5.26 11.16 47.1% 5.15 10.82 47.6% 0.26 0.78 32.6% 2.98 4.14 72.0% 52.5% 47.4%
Noah Vonleh 3 5.11 11.36 45.0% 4.85 10.65 45.6% 0.22 0.69 31.8% 3.42 4.51 75.6% 51.8% 45.6%
3 Year Average 5.13 11.02 46.5% 4.89 10.49 46.6% 0.25 0.76 32.3% 3.14 4.28 73.1% 52.2% 46.7%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Noah Vonleh 1 2.89 6.23 9.23 1.31 0.98 1.06 2.12 0.65 4.09 13.02
Noah Vonleh 2 2.73 6.55 9.35 1.55 0.96 1.07 2.21 0.73 3.89 14.07
Noah Vonleh 3 2.75 6.44 9.28 1.61 0.98 1.09 2.23 0.75 4.30 13.80
3 Year Average 2.8 6.4 9.3 1.5 1.0 1.1 2.2 0.71 4.1 13.7
Season Usage Stats
Noah Vonleh 1 9.5% 20.6% 15.5% 6.0% 1.4% 2.3% 13.0% 19.0%
Noah Vonleh 2 8.9% 21.4% 15.6% 7.2% 1.4% 2.2% 13.4% 19.5%
Noah Vonleh 3 9.0% 21.3% 15.6% 7.5% 1.4% 2.3% 13.0% 20.3%
3 Year Average 9.1% 21.1% 15.6% 7.0% 1.4% 2.3% 13.1% 19.6%
Season Advanced Measurements
Noah Vonleh 1 13.28 102.8 106.0 1.1 1.4 2.47 0.079
Noah Vonleh 2 13.91 102.2 105.3 1.5 1.8 3.28 0.086
Noah Vonleh 3 13.86 102.3 105.5 1.4 1.5 2.96 0.082
3 Year Average 13.71 102.5 105.6 1.4 1.6 2.93 0.083

Statistically Noah Vonleh looks to be a solid shooter overall, with a TS% of 52.2%, and a FG% of 46.5. He won't shoot a lot of 3's but he will be reasonably efficient shooting them, and he will be a solid FT shooter, while getting to the line a moderate amount. His usage is right at the average of 20%, so all of that leads to a little below average ORtg of 102.5. If he can develop his 3 point game, and progress as a passer, he will immediately become very effective pushing his ORtg into the range of 108-112. Defensively he rates at 105.6 Drtg, which for a young player is solid, but not exceptional. He generate a fair number of possessions chnages (DRb, Stl, Blk), but can be a little foul prone. If he was able to jump his ORb rate to over 10%, his assist rate to over 10%, and increase his 3's made from 0.25 per 36 to more like 0.60 then he would quickly become a load to deal with. For his first 3 seasons he grades as just a little below average, but for a player in years 1-3 he would actually grade as above average. At this point I would grade him in the range of Julius Randle, but below Embiid, Parker, Smart, and Saric. I believe he has a nice future, but he clearly needs to refine his game. Mediocre at a lot of things doesn't take you too far, you need to bring something at a higher level on a regular basis.

Most Probable Best Case Outcome : Chris Bosh
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Glen Davis
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Raef LaFrentz - Al-Farouq Aminu
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