FanPost

Comparable Analysis : Dario Saric

As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;

1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.

2.) I have expanded the European player database

3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.

4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.

5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are

C - David Robinson

PF - Tim Duncan

SF - LeBron James

SG - Manu Ginobili

PG - Chris Paul

The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Dario Saric 80.85 82 223 0.0% 0 0 82 0
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Dario Saric 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Dario Saric -10 0.00% -2.83 0 0 0 0 0

Dario Saric did not participate in the combine. He is 6-10, 223 lbs, his weight is about 10 lbs below average for his height, and his 82" wingspan is 2.83" shorter than average.

Comp Score Standard Deviation % of Comps who are League Average or Better
55.60% 13.86% 75.00%

0.00% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
85-100
Kawhi Leonard 15.00% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Michael Finley
Lamar Odom Glen Rice (Sr)
Greg Monroe Steve Smith 70 - 85
Luol Deng Mike Miller Gordon Hayward Jamal Mashburn 42.50% Above Average to Good NBA player
Jalen Rose Mike Miller Rodney Rogers Lamond Murray
Chris Mills Jeff Green Tim Thomas Al-Farouq Aminu
Billy Owens Donyell Marshall Jason Thompson Matt Harpring 55 - 70
Wilson Chandler 17.50% Average NBA player
Kirk Snyder John Wallace
Bonzi Wells Jason Smith
James Johnson Joey Graham 45 - 55
Jeff Taylor Charles O'Bannon 22.50% Below Average NBA Player
Anthony Bennett Perry Jones
Arnett Moultrie Tremaine Fowlkes
Lawrence Roberts Derrick Alston Jawad Williams 30 - 45
2.50% Poor NBA player
Trey Thompkins 20 - 30
0.00% Not NBA quality
0 - 20

Dario Saric is a 19 year old Croatian. I did a comp analysis on him last year, but he withdrew from the draft. Saric has been around for a number of years, even though he is only 19. he has been playing professionally in Europe since he turned 16, and has been watched closely since. He has played a large number of games the past two seasons in the Croatian, Adriatic, and Euro Cup. The Croatian league is a mediocre European national league, not as competitive as the Greek, Italian, Turkish, Spanish, French, or German leagues at the very least. The Adriatic is decent Super League, and the Euro Cup is the second best tournament league in Europe. My opinion is the Euro Cup, VTB United and Spanish VTB are of similar quality. When evaluating Dario Saric's comps you see a very solid group of good NBA players, but the best would be considered #3's on good teams. One very clear picture I draw when looking at his comps, I see a nice group of multi-skilled players (Leonard, Odom, Finley, Smith, Rose, Mills, Miller, Chandler), who can contribute to good teams in a multitude of ways. As a group they would be described as good shooters (Smith, Rice, Miller, Finley, Deng, Mills, Marshall, Hayward, Mashburn, Harpring), who have range (in particular Smith, Rice, Hayward, Finley, Marshall, Chandler and Miller) good passers (Odom, Smith, Mashburn, Miller), solid rebounders for their positions (Odom, Leonard, Smith, Harpring, Miller, and Mills), but as a group below average defensively. Overall his 3 best comps were Odom, Monroe, and Chris Mills, and his best European comp was Nicolas Batum, though Batum just missed being one of his top 20 comps based upon his age 19 season. With a low standard deviation, and a 75% probability of being league average or better, I think it is safe to say Dario Saric will be a good solid NBA player, probably a starter playing close to 30 minutes a night for a decade or more. Overall I would grade Saric below Embiid, Marcus Smart, and similar to Jabari Parker, and better than Julius Randle and Andrew Wiggins.

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Dario Saric 1 5.43 13.01 41.9% 4.61 9.60 48.0% 0.75 2.27 33.0% 2.45 3.62 67.8% 51.6% 48.1%
Dario Saric 2 5.49 12.11 45.4% 4.65 9.49 49.0% 0.79 2.34 33.7% 2.63 3.63 72.6% 52.6% 48.5%
Dario Saric 3 5.56 12.57 44.3% 4.70 9.73 48.3% 0.75 2.32 32.5% 2.68 3.75 71.3% 51.5% 47.4%
3 Year Average 5.50 12.55 43.9% 4.65 9.61 48.4% 0.76 2.31 33.0% 2.59 3.67 70.6% 51.9% 48.0%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Dario Saric 1 2.16 4.74 6.93 2.40 1.11 0.68 2.28 1.08 3.72 13.91
Dario Saric 2 1.83 4.87 6.71 2.85 1.10 0.66 2.16 1.37 3.42 14.29
Dario Saric 3 1.91 5.03 6.95 2.70 1.04 0.66 2.17 1.22 3.30 14.34
3 Year Average 2.0 4.9 6.9 2.7 1.1 0.7 2.2 1.23 3.5 14.2
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Dario Saric 1 6.7% 14.0% 10.2% 9.8% 1.6% 1.3% 12.7% 16.9%
Dario Saric 2 5.7% 14.4% 10.0% 11.8% 1.5% 1.4% 12.1% 16.9%
Dario Saric 3 6.0% 14.8% 10.3% 11.3% 1.5% 1.4% 12.0% 17.5%
3 Year Average 6.1% 14.4% 10.2% 11.0% 1.5% 1.3% 12.2% 17.1%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Dario Saric 1 12.76 101.6 107.3 0.9 1.1 2.08 0.057
Dario Saric 2 13.84 104.1 107.1 1.6 1.5 3.09 0.075
Dario Saric 3 13.53 102.2 106.6 1.9 1.5 3.40 0.068
3 Year Average 13.40 102.7 107.0 1.5 1.4 2.88 0.067

Statistsically Dario Saric projects to be a little below average for his first 3 years, which is fairly typical for seasons 1-3. Offensively he grades as slightly below average for his first 3 seasons, with a 102.7 ORtg, and average defensively with a 107.0 Drtg. As a shooter Saric projects to be a little above average with a TS% of 52% and an eFG of 48%. He projects to shoot only 2.3 3's per 36 minutes, and projects a low usage rate of 17.1%. Saric would actually see his ORtg, WS/48, and PER improve if he could push his usage rate to 20%, because he is a solid shooter. This has always been one of the frustrations with Nicloas Batum, his best overall European comp, to willing to defer rather than aggressively look for his shot. As a rebounder Saric is average as both an offensive and defensive rebounder for a small forward. As a passer he projects a solid 11% assist rate, with a low 12% turnover rate, and 1.23/1 Ast/To ratio which is solid. Given time I think he could develop as a passer, and develop as a point forward, much like Nicolas Batum, Kawhi Leonard, and Lamar Odom. In comparison Saric projects to generate more possession changes, with fewer personal fouls than Julius Randle. Overall Saric projects to be a multi-dimensional player, a generally efficient player, who is probably to willing to defer rather than just take over. When players like Saric take over they are often very hard to defend (see Smith, Rice, Miller, Kawhi, Odom, Michael Finley, and Nic Batum), but perhaps too often they don't.

Most Probable Best Case Outcome : Lamar Odom
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Wilson Chandler
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Mike Miller / Jamal Mashburn
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