Julius Randle : Comparable Analysis

As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;

1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.

2.) I have expanded the European player database

3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.

4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.

5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are

C - David Robinson

PF - Tim Duncan

SF - LeBron James

SG - Manu Ginobili

PG - Chris Paul

The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Julius Randle 79.83 81 250 9.4% 8.75 8.25 84 105.5
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Julius Randle 134.5 141 29 35.5 11.45 3.27
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Julius Randle 20 -1.12% -0.56 -0.93 0.64 0.1 0.28
Julius Randle is 6-9, 250 lbs. His weight is 20 lbs greater than average, his body fat % is 9.4%, which is 1.12% below average, so his extra weight is muscle and not fat. His wingspan is 84", and his reach is 105.5", both of which are below average, so he would not be described as long. His vertical, speed and agility are all better than average, so he is clearly a good athlete.

Comp Score Standard Deviation % of Comps who are League Average or Better
55.53% 12.69% 77.50%

0.00% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
85 - 100
Alonzo Mourning 12.50% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Chris Bosh
Greg Monroe
Rudy Gay Keith Van Horn 70 - 85
J.J. Hickson Brian Grant Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Al-Farouq Aminu 45.00% Above Average to Good NBA Player
Raef LaFrentz Mike Miller DeJuan Blair Derrick Williams
Derrick Favors Jeff Green Nikola Vucevic LaPhonso Ellis
Tobias Harris Marvin Williams Jamal Mashburn Channing Frye 55 - 70
Luc Mbah A Moute Jumaine Jones 20.00% Average NBA player
Pat Garrity Chris Mihm
John Wallace Erick Dampier
Glen Davis Samaki Walker 45 - 55
Brandon Bass Charles O'Bannon 20.00% Below Average NBA Player
Dickey Simpkins Mark Hendrickson
Josh McRoberts Wayne Simien
Arnett Moultrie Mario Bennett 30 - 45
2.50% Poor NBA player
Trey Thompkins 20 - 30
0.00% Not NBA quality
0 - 20

Julius Randle's comp score is 55.53%, with a low standard deviation of 12.69%, and a 77.5% probability of being league average or better. When you look at his comps, you see very clearly that he projects to be somewhere from above average to good NBA player. He has some nice top end comps, but only Mourning would be described as a #1, the others were the best players on bad teams, or the #3 on a good team. That middle group of Above Average to Good NBA players is a nice group of solid palyers, but none is even close to a star. It seems to me that Julius Randle would project to be a 25-35 minute a night player, probably a starter for much of his career, and he would have a 10-12 year career. He will not be a star, but would be seen as a solid complementary player.

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Julius Randle 1 5.17 11.56 44.7% 5.00 10.99 45.5% 0.24 0.81 29.4% 3.22 4.40 73.2% 50.6% 45.4%
Julius Randle 2 5.43 12.09 44.9% 5.72 12.27 46.5% 0.25 0.81 30.2% 3.24 4.40 73.7% 50.5% 45.5%
Julius Randle 3 5.33 12.41 42.9% 5.22 11.82 44.2% 0.24 0.80 29.5% 3.72 4.85 76.8% 49.9% 43.8%
3 Year Average 5.32 12.04 44.2% 5.35 11.75 45.4% 0.25 0.81 29.7% 3.39 4.55 74.6% 50.3% 44.9%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Julius Randle 1 3.08 6.05 9.36 1.40 0.87 0.88 2.13 0.70 3.83 13.94
Julius Randle 2 2.94 6.21 9.38 1.65 0.85 0.90 2.18 0.79 3.70 15.43
Julius Randle 3 2.97 6.17 9.37 1.72 0.86 0.91 2.20 0.82 4.05 14.90
3 Year Average 3.0 6.2 9.4 1.6 0.9 0.9 2.2 0.77 3.9 14.8
Season Usage Stats
Julius Randle 1 10.0% 20.2% 15.7% 6.5% 1.4% 1.9% 13.8% 21.0%
Julius Randle 2 9.4% 20.4% 15.6% 7.8% 1.3% 1.9% 13.9% 21.6%
Julius Randle 3 9.6% 20.5% 15.7% 8.2% 1.4% 2.0% 13.4% 22.6%
3 Year Average 9.6% 20.3% 15.7% 7.5% 1.4% 1.9% 13.7% 21.7%
Season Advanced Measurements
Julius Randle 1 14.02 103.0 105.9 1.3 1.5 2.86 0.082
Julius Randle 2 14.60 102.4 105.1 1.9 1.9 3.89 0.088
Julius Randle 3 14.64 102.5 105.2 1.8 1.6 3.52 0.087
3 Year Average 14.44 102.6 105.4 1.7 1.7 3.47 0.086

Statistically Julius Randle projects to be a solid NBA player almost immediately, just a little below average, but he doesn't project to improve a lot over his first 3 years. Offensively Julius Randle projects to be below average over his first 3 years, with an ORtg of 102.5. This is driven by a below average TS% of 50.3%, and an eFG% of only 46.3%. Couple this with a higher than average usage rate of 21.7%, and you get a below average offensive player. As a rebounder Randle projects to be OK, decent on both the offensive and defensive glass. Defensively Randle projects to be fairly middling defender with a DRtg of 105.4 over 3 years. Randle is an OK defensive rebounder, but he does not generate many possession changes, both his steal and block rates are low. Randle is not turnover prone, and should be average to a little below average in commiting PF's. As I mentioned above, Randle does not project as a star, but rather a nice solid complimentary player, and this stat line is consistent with that.

Most Probable Best Case Outcome : Greg Monroe
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Brandon Bass
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Marvin Williams / Nikola Vucevic
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