As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;
1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.
2.) I have expanded the European player database
3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.
4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.
5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are
C - David Robinson
PF - Tim Duncan
SF - LeBron James
SG - Manu Ginobili
PG - Chris Paul
The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.
Name | Height Inches no Shoes | Height Inches w/shoes | Weight | Body Fat | Hand Length | Hand Width | Wingspan Inches | Reach in Inches |
Julius Randle | 79.83 | 81 | 250 | 9.4% | 8.75 | 8.25 | 84 | 105.5 |
Name | No Step Vert Reach (inch) | Max Vert Reach (inch) | No Step Vert | Max Vert | Bench | Agility | Sprint | |
Julius Randle | 134.5 | 141 | 29 | 35.5 | 11.45 | 3.27 | ||
Name | Weight > than standard (in lbs) | Body Fat | Wingspan > than standard (in inches) | Reach > than standard (in inches) | Vertical > than standard (in inches) | Speed > than standard (in sec) | Agility > than standard (in sec) | # additional bench reps than expected |
Julius Randle | 20 | -1.12% | -0.56 | -0.93 | 0.64 | 0.1 | 0.28 | |
Julius Randle is 6-9, 250 lbs. His weight is 20 lbs greater than average, his body fat % is 9.4%, which is 1.12% below average, so his extra weight is muscle and not fat. His wingspan is 84", and his reach is 105.5", both of which are below average, so he would not be described as long. His vertical, speed and agility are all better than average, so he is clearly a good athlete. | ||||||||
Comp Score | Standard Deviation | % of Comps who are League Average or Better | ||||||
55.53% | 12.69% | 77.50% | ||||||
0.00% | All Star to Potential Hall of Fame | |||||
85 - 100 | ||||||
Alonzo Mourning | 12.50% | Good to Very Good NBA Starter | ||||
Chris Bosh | ||||||
Greg Monroe | ||||||
Rudy Gay | Keith Van Horn | 70 - 85 | ||||
J.J. Hickson | Brian Grant | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Al-Farouq Aminu | 45.00% | Above Average to Good NBA Player | |
Raef LaFrentz | Mike Miller | DeJuan Blair | Derrick Williams | |||
Derrick Favors | Jeff Green | Nikola Vucevic | LaPhonso Ellis | |||
Tobias Harris | Marvin Williams | Jamal Mashburn | Channing Frye | 55 - 70 | ||
Luc Mbah A Moute | Jumaine Jones | 20.00% | Average NBA player | |||
Pat Garrity | Chris Mihm | |||||
John Wallace | Erick Dampier | |||||
Glen Davis | Samaki Walker | 45 - 55 | ||||
Brandon Bass | Charles O'Bannon | 20.00% | Below Average NBA Player | |||
Dickey Simpkins | Mark Hendrickson | |||||
Josh McRoberts | Wayne Simien | |||||
Arnett Moultrie | Mario Bennett | 30 - 45 | ||||
2.50% | Poor NBA player | |||||
Trey Thompkins | 20 - 30 | |||||
0.00% | Not NBA quality | |||||
0 - 20 |
Julius Randle's comp score is 55.53%, with a low standard deviation of 12.69%, and a 77.5% probability of being league average or better. When you look at his comps, you see very clearly that he projects to be somewhere from above average to good NBA player. He has some nice top end comps, but only Mourning would be described as a #1, the others were the best players on bad teams, or the #3 on a good team. That middle group of Above Average to Good NBA players is a nice group of solid palyers, but none is even close to a star. It seems to me that Julius Randle would project to be a 25-35 minute a night player, probably a starter for much of his career, and he would have a 10-12 year career. He will not be a star, but would be seen as a solid complementary player. | ||||||||
Season | Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes | ||||||||||||||
FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TS% | eFG% | ||
Julius Randle | 1 | 5.17 | 11.56 | 44.7% | 5.00 | 10.99 | 45.5% | 0.24 | 0.81 | 29.4% | 3.22 | 4.40 | 73.2% | 50.6% | 45.4% |
Julius Randle | 2 | 5.43 | 12.09 | 44.9% | 5.72 | 12.27 | 46.5% | 0.25 | 0.81 | 30.2% | 3.24 | 4.40 | 73.7% | 50.5% | 45.5% |
Julius Randle | 3 | 5.33 | 12.41 | 42.9% | 5.22 | 11.82 | 44.2% | 0.24 | 0.80 | 29.5% | 3.72 | 4.85 | 76.8% | 49.9% | 43.8% |
3 Year Average | 5.32 | 12.04 | 44.2% | 5.35 | 11.75 | 45.4% | 0.25 | 0.81 | 29.7% | 3.39 | 4.55 | 74.6% | 50.3% | 44.9% | |
Season | Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes | ||||||||||||||
ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | A/TO | PF | PTS | ||||||
Julius Randle | 1 | 3.08 | 6.05 | 9.36 | 1.40 | 0.87 | 0.88 | 2.13 | 0.70 | 3.83 | 13.94 | ||||
Julius Randle | 2 | 2.94 | 6.21 | 9.38 | 1.65 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 2.18 | 0.79 | 3.70 | 15.43 | ||||
Julius Randle | 3 | 2.97 | 6.17 | 9.37 | 1.72 | 0.86 | 0.91 | 2.20 | 0.82 | 4.05 | 14.90 | ||||
3 Year Average | 3.0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.77 | 3.9 | 14.8 | |||||
Season | Usage Stats | ||||||||||||||
ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | ||||||||
Julius Randle | 1 | 10.0% | 20.2% | 15.7% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 13.8% | 21.0% | ||||||
Julius Randle | 2 | 9.4% | 20.4% | 15.6% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 13.9% | 21.6% | ||||||
Julius Randle | 3 | 9.6% | 20.5% | 15.7% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 13.4% | 22.6% | ||||||
3 Year Average | 9.6% | 20.3% | 15.7% | 7.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 13.7% | 21.7% | |||||||
Season | Advanced Measurements | ||||||||||||||
PER | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | WS/48 | |||||||||
Julius Randle | 1 | 14.02 | 103.0 | 105.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.86 | 0.082 | |||||||
Julius Randle | 2 | 14.60 | 102.4 | 105.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.89 | 0.088 | |||||||
Julius Randle | 3 | 14.64 | 102.5 | 105.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 3.52 | 0.087 | |||||||
3 Year Average | 14.44 | 102.6 | 105.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3.47 | 0.086 |
Statistically Julius Randle projects to be a solid NBA player almost immediately, just a little below average, but he doesn't project to improve a lot over his first 3 years. Offensively Julius Randle projects to be below average over his first 3 years, with an ORtg of 102.5. This is driven by a below average TS% of 50.3%, and an eFG% of only 46.3%. Couple this with a higher than average usage rate of 21.7%, and you get a below average offensive player. As a rebounder Randle projects to be OK, decent on both the offensive and defensive glass. Defensively Randle projects to be fairly middling defender with a DRtg of 105.4 over 3 years. Randle is an OK defensive rebounder, but he does not generate many possession changes, both his steal and block rates are low. Randle is not turnover prone, and should be average to a little below average in commiting PF's. As I mentioned above, Randle does not project as a star, but rather a nice solid complimentary player, and this stat line is consistent with that. | ||||||||
Most Probable Best Case Outcome : Greg Monroe | ||||||||
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Brandon Bass | ||||||||
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Marvin Williams / Nikola Vucevic |