As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;
1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.
2.) I have expanded the European player database
3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.
4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.
5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are
C - David Robinson
PF - Tim Duncan
SF - LeBron James
SG - Manu Ginobili
PG - Chris Paul
The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.
Name | Height Inches no Shoes | Height Inches w/shoes | Weight | Body Fat | Hand Length | Hand Width | Wingspan Inches | Reach in Inches |
Marcus Smart | 74 | 75.25 | 227 | 10.6% | 9 | 8.75 | 81.25 | 99 |
Name | No Step Vert Reach (inch) | Max Vert Reach (inch) | No Step Vert | Max Vert | Bench | Agility | Sprint | |
Marcus Smart | 132 | 135 | 33 | 36 | 10.82 | 3.26 | ||
Name | Weight > than standard (in lbs) | Body Fat | Wingspan > than standard (in inches) | Reach > than standard (in inches) | Vertical > than standard (in inches) | Speed > than standard (in sec) | Agility > than standard (in sec) | # additional bench reps than expected |
Marcus Smart | 38 | 0.86% | 3.07 | 0.75 | 1.98 | -0.03 | 0.42 | |
Marcus Smart is 6-3 1/4, 227 lbs. He has a body fat % of 10.6%, and his weight is 38 lbs greater than expected, and his body fat % is average. While Marcus Smart is clearly heavy for his size, it did not adversely effect his athleticism, as he jumped 2" higher than average, did the agility drill nearly 1/2" quicker than expected, and his speed was right at the average. His Wingspan (81.25") is 3.07" longer than average, and his reach (99") is 3/4 longer than average. In aggregate I would describe Marcus Smart as a "GOOD ATHLETE", with "GOOD LENGTH". | ||||||||
Comp Score | Standard Deviation | % of Comps who are League Average or Better | ||||||
64.52% | 19.07% | 80.00% | ||||||
James Harden | 12.50% | All Star to Potential Hall of Fame | ||||
James Harden | ||||||
Paul Pierce | ||||||
John Wall | John Wall | 85 - 100 | ||||
Kemba Walker | Nick Calathes | Eric Murdock | 30.00% | Good to Very Good NBA Starter | ||
Kemba Walker | Michael Finley | Bradley Beal | ||||
Ronnie Brewer | Michael Finley | Joe Johnson | ||||
Ronnie Brewer | Ben Gordon | Tyreke Evans | 70 - 85 | |||
Luol Deng | Reggie Jackson | Alec Burks | 30.00% | Above Average to Good NBA Player | ||
Metta World Peace | Chauncey Billups | Evan Turner | ||||
Brevin Knight | Chauncey Billups | Archie Goodwin | ||||
Iman Shumpert | Jared Dudley | Anthony Peeler | 55 - 70 | |||
7.50% | Average NBA player | |||||
Chase Budinger | ||||||
Bonzi Wells | ||||||
Javaris Crittenton | 45 - 55 | |||||
Jeryl Sasser | 17.50% | Below Average NBA Player | ||||
Jeryl Sasser | Manny Harris | |||||
Manny Harris | Dominique Jones | |||||
Manny Harris | Andre Barrett | 30 - 45 | ||||
2.50% | Poor NBA player | |||||
Cory Higgins | 20 - 30 | |||||
0.00% | Not NBA quality | |||||
0 - 20 |
Marcus Smart has the highest comp score of any player I have completed yet, and I expect he will have the highest in this draft. The only player to score higher in 3 years is Anthony Davis. His Standard Deviation is also one of the highest, so there is greater risk with a player like Marcus Smart. You see this very clearly in his distribution, where only 3 players identified as "AVERAGE" comped to Marcus Smart. there are a lot above and below average. One of the reasons I developed the Comp Score the way that I did is so I could fairly grade all players on a similar scale. I believe WS/48 is a better metric than PER, and WS/48 has a strong bias in favor of big players. The draft though is really about opportunity cost. You need to fill 5 different positions, and finding a way to grade all positions on a common scale makes that opportunity cost easier to measure. Of the comps at the top end you see a number of players who have the ball in their hands a lot, and tend towards being a higher usage player, rather than a distributor (Harden, Pierce, Joe Johnson), and even the distributors like John Wall and Kemba Walker are very high usage guys. One player that I think stand out is Chauncey Billups. Billups struggled early in his career, but has he matured he found a nice balance between usage and distribution, and had significant success. | ||||||||
Season | Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes | ||||||||||||||||
FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TS% | eFG% | TS% | |||
Marcus Smart | 1 | 4.86 | 10.97 | 44.4% | 3.96 | 9.07 | 43.7% | 0.87 | 2.88 | 30.1% | 3.39 | 4.48 | 76.0% | 48.9% | 43.2% | #### | |
Marcus Smart | 2 | 5.13 | 12.33 | 41.6% | 3.86 | 8.45 | 45.5% | 0.92 | 3.08 | 29.8% | 3.12 | 4.00 | 78.1% | 50.6% | 45.3% | #### | |
Marcus Smart | 3 | 5.15 | 12.02 | 42.9% | 4.04 | 8.62 | 46.9% | 0.97 | 3.01 | 32.3% | 3.22 | 4.06 | 79.2% | 48.2% | 43.3% | #### | |
3 Year Average | 5.06 | 11.81 | 42.9% | 3.95 | 8.70 | 45.4% | 0.92 | 3.00 | 30.8% | 3.24 | 4.17 | 77.8% | 49.2% | 44.0% | #### | ||
Season | Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes | ||||||||||||||||
ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | A/TO | PF | PTS | ||||||||
Marcus Smart | 1 | 1.31 | 3.55 | 4.85 | 3.97 | 1.80 | 0.35 | 2.46 | 1.67 | 2.83 | 13.92 | ||||||
Marcus Smart | 2 | 1.08 | 3.68 | 4.74 | 4.22 | 1.82 | 0.39 | 2.19 | 1.76 | 2.82 | 13.59 | ||||||
Marcus Smart | 3 | 1.05 | 3.59 | 4.62 | 4.22 | 1.53 | 0.32 | 2.31 | 1.67 | 2.48 | 14.21 | ||||||
3 Year Average | 1.1 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.70 | 2.7 | 13.9 | |||||||
Season | Usage Stats | ||||||||||||||||
ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | ||||||||||
Marcus Smart | 1 | 4.2% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 18.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 14.7% | 22.0% | ||||||||
Marcus Smart | 2 | 3.5% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 20.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 13.7% | 21.6% | ||||||||
Marcus Smart | 3 | 3.3% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 19.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 13.4% | 21.3% | ||||||||
3 Year Average | 3.6% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 13.9% | 21.6% | |||||||||
Season | Advanced Measurements | ||||||||||||||||
PER | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | WS/48 | |||||||||||
Marcus Smart | 1 | 13.37 | 99.5 | 106.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.32 | 0.054 | |||||||||
Marcus Smart | 2 | 14.82 | 103.1 | 107.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3.25 | 0.077 | |||||||||
Marcus Smart | 3 | 14.69 | 96.5 | 99.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 3.95 | 0.083 | |||||||||
3 Year Average | 14.34 | 99.7 | 104.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3.22 | 0.072 |
Statistically Marcus Smart grades out as a little below average in his first 3 years. Once again recognize the bias in WS/48 and you see that by year 3 Marcus Smart is very close to being league average. His progression is better than Kemba Walker, Chauncey Billups, Joe Johnson, and better than John Wall's first and second seasons. Offensively Marcus Smart projects to be below average his first 3 seasons (ORtg 99.7) driven first and foremost by his low TS% (49.2%), which is most specifically driven by his low 3Pt % of 30.8%, but he makes up for some of this through a reasonable usage rate of 21.6%. This usage rate is a composite of his comps usage rate, and the relationship to Smart's college usage rate. My honest option will be that Smart will exceed this usage rate, and that will negatively impact his overall usefullness. In his first 3 season Smart is projected to get 4.1 assists/36 minutes, which for his role is too low. Defensively Smart projects to be quite solid by his 3rd year, but will struggle defensively early in his career. For a guard Smart is a solid defensive rebounder, but he does not generate many changes of possession. I believe a strong case could be made for taking Marcus Smart #1, because he clearly has the highest Comp Score. In the end though, I have a bias for big guys, and would rate Embiid #1 and Smart a very solid #2 or #3. | ||||||||
Most Probable Best Case Outcome : John Wall / Chauncey Billups |
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Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Anthony Peeler | ||||||||
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Michael Finley / Tyreke Evans |