Comparable Analysis : Marcus Smart

As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;

1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.

2.) I have expanded the European player database

3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.

4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.

5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are

C - David Robinson

PF - Tim Duncan

SF - LeBron James

SG - Manu Ginobili

PG - Chris Paul

The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Marcus Smart 74 75.25 227 10.6% 9 8.75 81.25 99
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Marcus Smart 132 135 33 36 10.82 3.26
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Marcus Smart 38 0.86% 3.07 0.75 1.98 -0.03 0.42
Marcus Smart is 6-3 1/4, 227 lbs. He has a body fat % of 10.6%, and his weight is 38 lbs greater than expected, and his body fat % is average. While Marcus Smart is clearly heavy for his size, it did not adversely effect his athleticism, as he jumped 2" higher than average, did the agility drill nearly 1/2" quicker than expected, and his speed was right at the average. His Wingspan (81.25") is 3.07" longer than average, and his reach (99") is 3/4 longer than average. In aggregate I would describe Marcus Smart as a "GOOD ATHLETE", with "GOOD LENGTH".

Comp Score Standard Deviation % of Comps who are League Average or Better
64.52% 19.07% 80.00%

James Harden 12.50% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
James Harden
Paul Pierce
John Wall John Wall 85 - 100
Kemba Walker Nick Calathes Eric Murdock 30.00% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Kemba Walker Michael Finley Bradley Beal
Ronnie Brewer Michael Finley Joe Johnson
Ronnie Brewer Ben Gordon Tyreke Evans 70 - 85
Luol Deng Reggie Jackson Alec Burks 30.00% Above Average to Good NBA Player
Metta World Peace Chauncey Billups Evan Turner
Brevin Knight Chauncey Billups Archie Goodwin
Iman Shumpert Jared Dudley Anthony Peeler 55 - 70
7.50% Average NBA player
Chase Budinger
Bonzi Wells
Javaris Crittenton 45 - 55
Jeryl Sasser 17.50% Below Average NBA Player
Jeryl Sasser Manny Harris
Manny Harris Dominique Jones
Manny Harris Andre Barrett 30 - 45
2.50% Poor NBA player
Cory Higgins 20 - 30
0.00% Not NBA quality
0 - 20

Marcus Smart has the highest comp score of any player I have completed yet, and I expect he will have the highest in this draft. The only player to score higher in 3 years is Anthony Davis. His Standard Deviation is also one of the highest, so there is greater risk with a player like Marcus Smart. You see this very clearly in his distribution, where only 3 players identified as "AVERAGE" comped to Marcus Smart. there are a lot above and below average. One of the reasons I developed the Comp Score the way that I did is so I could fairly grade all players on a similar scale. I believe WS/48 is a better metric than PER, and WS/48 has a strong bias in favor of big players. The draft though is really about opportunity cost. You need to fill 5 different positions, and finding a way to grade all positions on a common scale makes that opportunity cost easier to measure. Of the comps at the top end you see a number of players who have the ball in their hands a lot, and tend towards being a higher usage player, rather than a distributor (Harden, Pierce, Joe Johnson), and even the distributors like John Wall and Kemba Walker are very high usage guys. One player that I think stand out is Chauncey Billups. Billups struggled early in his career, but has he matured he found a nice balance between usage and distribution, and had significant success.

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG% TS%
Marcus Smart 1 4.86 10.97 44.4% 3.96 9.07 43.7% 0.87 2.88 30.1% 3.39 4.48 76.0% 48.9% 43.2% ####
Marcus Smart 2 5.13 12.33 41.6% 3.86 8.45 45.5% 0.92 3.08 29.8% 3.12 4.00 78.1% 50.6% 45.3% ####
Marcus Smart 3 5.15 12.02 42.9% 4.04 8.62 46.9% 0.97 3.01 32.3% 3.22 4.06 79.2% 48.2% 43.3% ####
3 Year Average 5.06 11.81 42.9% 3.95 8.70 45.4% 0.92 3.00 30.8% 3.24 4.17 77.8% 49.2% 44.0% ####
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Marcus Smart 1 1.31 3.55 4.85 3.97 1.80 0.35 2.46 1.67 2.83 13.92
Marcus Smart 2 1.08 3.68 4.74 4.22 1.82 0.39 2.19 1.76 2.82 13.59
Marcus Smart 3 1.05 3.59 4.62 4.22 1.53 0.32 2.31 1.67 2.48 14.21
3 Year Average 1.1 3.6 4.7 4.1 1.7 0.4 2.3 1.70 2.7 13.9
Season Usage Stats
Marcus Smart 1 4.2% 11.5% 7.8% 18.3% 2.4% 0.7% 14.7% 22.0%
Marcus Smart 2 3.5% 11.9% 7.7% 20.0% 2.4% 0.8% 13.7% 21.6%
Marcus Smart 3 3.3% 11.3% 7.3% 19.8% 2.0% 0.7% 13.4% 21.3%
3 Year Average 3.6% 11.6% 7.6% 19.4% 2.2% 0.8% 13.9% 21.6%
Season Advanced Measurements
Marcus Smart 1 13.37 99.5 106.8 0.9 1.4 2.32 0.054
Marcus Smart 2 14.82 103.1 107.2 1.8 1.4 3.25 0.077
Marcus Smart 3 14.69 96.5 99.4 2.2 1.7 3.95 0.083
3 Year Average 14.34 99.7 104.3 1.7 1.5 3.22 0.072

Statistically Marcus Smart grades out as a little below average in his first 3 years. Once again recognize the bias in WS/48 and you see that by year 3 Marcus Smart is very close to being league average. His progression is better than Kemba Walker, Chauncey Billups, Joe Johnson, and better than John Wall's first and second seasons. Offensively Marcus Smart projects to be below average his first 3 seasons (ORtg 99.7) driven first and foremost by his low TS% (49.2%), which is most specifically driven by his low 3Pt % of 30.8%, but he makes up for some of this through a reasonable usage rate of 21.6%. This usage rate is a composite of his comps usage rate, and the relationship to Smart's college usage rate. My honest option will be that Smart will exceed this usage rate, and that will negatively impact his overall usefullness. In his first 3 season Smart is projected to get 4.1 assists/36 minutes, which for his role is too low. Defensively Smart projects to be quite solid by his 3rd year, but will struggle defensively early in his career. For a guard Smart is a solid defensive rebounder, but he does not generate many changes of possession. I believe a strong case could be made for taking Marcus Smart #1, because he clearly has the highest Comp Score. In the end though, I have a bias for big guys, and would rate Embiid #1 and Smart a very solid #2 or #3.

Most Probable Best Case Outcome : John Wall / Chauncey Billups
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Anthony Peeler
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Michael Finley / Tyreke Evans

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