Comparable Analysis : Andrew Wiggins

As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;

1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.

2.) I have expanded the European player database

3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.

4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.

5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are

C - David Robinson

PF - Tim Duncan

SF - LeBron James

SG - Manu Ginobili

PG - Chris Paul

The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Andrew Wiggins 78.84 80 197 0.0% 0 0 84 0
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Andrew Wiggins 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Andrew Wiggins -30 0.00% 0.49 0 0 0 0 0
Andrew Wiggins did not participate in the combine. He previously was measured at 6-8, and 197 lbs. His weight was 30 pounds less than you would expect for his height. His wingspan is 1/2" longer than average, so he does not have exceptional length.

Comp Score Standard Deviation % of Comps who are League Average or Better
54.98% 14.99% 77.50%

2.5% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
Gilbert Arenas 85 - 100
Michael Finley 15.0% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Bradley Beal
Todd Day Steve Smith
Joe Johnson Rudy Gay 70 - 85
Luol Deng Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Harrison Barnes Courtney Alexander 42.5% Above Average to Good NBA Player
Thaddeus Young Alec Burks Toney Douglas Tobias Harris
Sean Elliott Kyle Singler Lamond Murray Jalen Rose
Jeff Green Tim Thomas Derrick Williams Khris Middleton 55 - 70
Ricky Davis 17.5% Average NBA player
Pat Garrity Rashad McCants
Tracy Murray Jumaine Jones
Nick Young Malik Hairston 45 - 55
Donte Greene 15.0% Below Average NBA Player
Xavier Henry
Tremaine Fowlkes Dominique Jones
Lawrence Moten Jawad Williams 30 - 45
7.5% Poor NBA player
Cory Higgins
Doug Edwards
Bracey Wright 20 - 30
0.0% Not NBA quality
0 - 20

Andrew Wiggins Comp Score of 54.98 is higher than Victor Oladipo, Michael-Carter Williams, Ben McLemore, but lower than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. His Standard Deviation is very average, and 77.5% of his comps were league average or better. At the upper end you see a number of good passing wings (Day, Smith, Rose, Deng, Joe Johnson, Finley, and Elliott, Ricky Davis), as well as a scoring PG in Arenas, Douglas, Jones. So I believe based upon the comp list Wiggins has the possibility to be a Point Forward type. One final thing about the comp list, you see very clearly that Wiggins projects to be an Above Average to Good NBA player, not a Very Good or even Great NBA player. He has played just a single college season, and some player mature earlier than others, but based upon what is known today, I don't believe Wiggins will be a #1 on a good NBA team, he is clearly more in the mold of a #2 or more likely a #3.

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Andrew Wiggins 1 5.40 12.66 42.7% 4.59 10.09 45.5% 0.81 2.49 32.5% 2.82 3.68 76.7% 50.9% 45.9%
Andrew Wiggins 2 5.26 12.15 43.3% 4.29 9.39 45.7% 0.98 2.92 33.4% 2.77 3.66 75.7% 51.7% 46.9%
Andrew Wiggins 3 5.26 12.64 41.6% 4.43 9.89 44.9% 0.95 2.91 32.7% 2.86 3.71 77.1% 50.1% 45.0%
3 Year Average 5.30 12.48 42.5% 4.43 9.77 45.3% 0.92 2.80 32.9% 2.82 3.68 76.5% 50.9% 45.9%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Andrew Wiggins 1 1.76 3.39 5.14 2.17 1.08 0.50 2.13 1.09 3.16 14.43
Andrew Wiggins 2 1.46 3.53 4.99 2.41 1.15 0.51 1.87 1.25 2.98 14.27
Andrew Wiggins 3 1.38 3.39 4.77 2.47 1.12 0.42 1.93 1.25 3.22 14.58
3 Year Average 1.5 3.4 4.9 2.4 1.1 0.5 2.0 1.20 3.1 14.4
Season Usage Stats
Andrew Wiggins 1 5.7% 10.8% 8.4% 9.7% 1.6% 1.0% 13.2% 21.3%
Andrew Wiggins 2 4.8% 11.2% 8.2% 10.7% 1.7% 1.1% 12.2% 20.4%
Andrew Wiggins 3 4.5% 10.9% 7.8% 11.1% 1.7% 0.9% 12.2% 21.2%
3 Year Average 4.9% 11.0% 8.1% 10.6% 1.6% 1.0% 12.5% 21.0%
Season Advanced Measurements
Andrew Wiggins 1 12.76 101.2 107.8 0.9 0.9 1.81 0.059
Andrew Wiggins 2 13.41 103.8 107.7 1.5 1.2 2.78 0.075
Andrew Wiggins 3 12.67 101.2 107.7 1.6 1.2 2.90 0.060
3 Year Average 12.96 102.1 107.7 1.4 1.1 2.56 0.065

Statistically Wiggins projects to be a little below average NBA player in his first 3 years, with a WS/48 of .065 and a PER of 12.96. He projects to be clearly below average offensively (102.1 Ortg), and a little below average defensively (107.7 DRtg). As a shooter Wiggins projects to be OK, with a 45.3% 2 pt rate, a 33% 3 pt rate, and a 76.5% FT rate. Wiggins is a fairly high usage player at 21%, but that is appropriate for his efficiency rates. His ability to create possession changes through steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds is below average. Though his assist rate here are fairly low, I expect he will outproduce those, as a number of his comps would be considered good passers, with good assist rates. Overall he projects to play 24 minutes a night in his first 3 NBA seasons. As noted above Wiggins does not project to be a #1 on a good team, but more likely a #3, and maybe in time a #2. He clearly isn't the kind of player Embiid is, and Parker I believe will be a more overall productive player.

Most Probable Best Case Outcome : Joe Johnson
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Nick Young
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Sean Elliott / Tim Thomas

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