Comparable Analysis : Jabari Parker

As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;

1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.

2.) I have expanded the European player database

3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.

4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.

5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are

C - David Robinson

PF - Tim Duncan

SF - LeBron James

SG - Manu Ginobili

PG - Chris Paul

The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Jabari Parker 78.75 80 241 0.0% 0 0 84 104
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Jabari Parker 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Jabari Parker 14 0.00% 0.49 -1.12 0 0 0 0
Jabari Parker did not participate in the combine. He previously was measured at 6-8, and 241 lbs. His weight was 14 pounds more than you would expect for his height. His wingspan is 1/2" longer than average and his reach is 1.12" less than average.

Comp Score Standard Deviation % of Comps who are League Average or Better
57.13% 12.56% 85.00%

0.00% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
85 - 100
Shareef Abdur-Rahim 12.50% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Carmelo Anthony
Lamar Odom
Quentin Richardson Keith Van Horn 70 - 85
Joe Smith Bryant Stith Rodney Rogers Lamond Murray 45.00% Above Average to Good NBA Player
Lionel Simmons Donyell Marshall Tim Thomas Al-Farouq Aminu
Ryan Anderson Jared Sullinger Jamal Mashburn Derrick Williams
Luol Deng Troy Murphy Lamond Murray Tobias Harris 55 - 70
Spencer Hawes Othella Harrington Anthony Randolph 27.50% Average NBA player
Terrence Jones Glen Davis Samaki Walker
Eddie Griffin Jumaine Jones Kosta Koufos
Don MacLean Jumaine Jones 45 - 55
Sean May 12.50% Below Average NBA Player
Kris Humphries
Lawrence Roberts
Monty Williams Dontonio Wingfield 30 - 45
2.50% Poor NBA player
Trey Thompkins 20 - 30
0.00% Not NBA quality
0 - 20

Jabari Parker's comp score is just below that of Cody Zeller, with a similar standard deviation and an equal number of comps who league average or better. I would rate him about equal to Cody Zeller as a prospect. He has no All-Star/HoF comps, but he has a nice group of top end comps, such as Abdur-Rahim, Carmello Anthony, and Lamar Odom. His group of average to good comps is a solid group of players, each with clear strengths, as well as documented flaws. As you will note Parker has only 1 comp, Carmello Anthony, who has been a "Number 1" on a good team. Parker is a nice player, but he is a notch below Joel Embiid.

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Jabari Parker 1 5.93 15.11 39.3% 5.22 11.85 44.1% 0.54 1.78 30.4% 3.07 4.27 71.9% 49.3% 45.0%
Jabari Parker 2 6.09 14.25 42.7% 5.15 11.12 46.4% 0.64 2.03 31.7% 3.18 4.19 76.0% 51.4% 46.7%
Jabari Parker 3 6.13 14.39 42.6% 5.30 11.37 46.6% 0.66 2.15 30.9% 3.19 4.27 74.7% 51.3% 46.8%
3 Year Average 6.06 14.54 41.7% 5.22 11.41 45.8% 0.62 2.00 31.0% 3.15 4.24 74.4% 50.7% 46.2%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Jabari Parker 1 2.81 5.14 7.96 1.76 1.09 0.89 2.29 0.80 3.79 15.14
Jabari Parker 2 2.59 5.40 8.01 1.86 1.02 0.82 2.12 0.90 3.40 15.42
Jabari Parker 3 2.64 5.48 8.14 1.82 0.94 0.84 2.10 0.89 3.45 15.77
3 Year Average 2.7 5.4 8.0 1.8 1.0 0.8 2.2 0.87 3.5 15.5
Season Usage Stats
Jabari Parker 1 9.2% 17.9% 13.6% 8.3% 1.6% 1.9% 13.4% 24.8%
Jabari Parker 2 8.5% 18.6% 13.7% 8.7% 1.5% 1.7% 12.7% 24.3%
Jabari Parker 3 8.6% 19.1% 14.0% 8.6% 1.4% 1.8% 12.4% 24.7%
3 Year Average 8.7% 18.6% 13.8% 8.6% 1.5% 1.8% 12.8% 24.6%
Season Advanced Measurements
Jabari Parker 1 13.82 100.3 105.7 0.6 1.1 1.77 0.066
Jabari Parker 2 15.19 104.5 106.1 2.2 1.5 3.73 0.094
Jabari Parker 3 15.27 104.2 106.7 2.0 1.4 3.43 0.087
3 Year Average 14.83 103.2 106.2 1.7 1.4 3.07 0.084

Statistically Embid grades out a slightly below average for his first 3 years. He is a little below average both offensively amd defensively, but for years 1-3 they are fine. As a shooter Parker doesn't shoot many 3's, and hits them at onl;y a 31% rate, clearly below average. He two point rate is also poor, with a 3 year average of 41.7% In other words I would rate him as a below average shooter. Parker is clearly a high usage player (24.6% for his first 3 years), and also an inefficient shooter. That is a clear red flag. For a PF Parker projects to be a little below average as a rebounder, probably a little above average as a passer, with good turnover and personal foul rates for a bigger player. Overall based upon his stat line I would say he will be a good solid NBA starter, but he will never be a "Number 1" on a good NBA team, he just isn't efficient enough.

Most Probable Best Case Outcome : Lamar Odom
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Eddie Griffin
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Luol Deng / Troy Murphy
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