Comparable Analysis : Joel Embiid

As I noted in my recap of the 2013 draft I have made a large number of changes, additions, and enhancements to my tool. A quick recap;

1.) I now have all the Basketball Reference Advanced stats for every player in the database.

2.) I have expanded the European player database

3.) I am now consolidating all European league stats, from multiple leagues, for a given season into one one individual stat line.

4.) I have expanded and improved upon the comp process by including a number of new ratios, and advanced stats to improve the process of finding the very best comps.

5.) I have formalized the Comp Score. This is now set on an essentially 0-100 scale with a median of 50 (to be precise it is about 7-100 with a median of about 47). This score is position based, so that you have 5 players who score 100, one at each position. The score is based upon the players first 5 seasons in the NBA ONLY, I chose that because that is the maximum possible time a team can control a draftee. By position the 5 players who scored 100 are

C - David Robinson

PF - Tim Duncan

SF - LeBron James

SG - Manu Ginobili

PG - Chris Paul

The score is the aggregate of the players total stats, and advanced stats, rated on a scale where the best aggregate score each season is given a score of 100.

So here is the analysis of Joel Embiid (I hope that there are no formatting problems, if there are I shall work to fix them)

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Joel Embiid 82.79 84 240 0.0% 0 0 89 0
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Joel Embiid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Joel Embiid 1 0.00% 2.1 0 0 0 0 0

Joel Embiid did not participate in the combine. He is 7-0 240 lbs, with a wingspan of 7-9. His weight is right at the average for his height, and his wingspan is 2.1" longer than average.

Comparable Analysis

2.50% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
Hakeem Olajuwon 85 - 100
Derrick Coleman 15.00% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Patrick Ewing (Sr)
LaMarcus Aldridge David Lee
DeMarcus Cousins Chris Bosh 70 - 85
Kenyon Martin Rasheed Wallace Ed Davis LaPhonso Ellis 42.50% Above Average to Good NBA Player
Dale Davis Derrick Favors Al-Farouq Aminu DeAndre Jordan
Al Horford Byron Houston Zach Randolph Oliver Miller
J.J. Hickson Andrew Bogut Tyrus Thomas Jonas Valanciunas 55 - 70
Adam Keefe Etan Thomas Erick Dampier 27.50% Average NBA player
John Wallace Julian Wright Erick Dampier
Jordan Hill Shelden Williams Aaron Gray
Glen Davis Greg Oden 45 - 55
Meyers Leonard 10.00% Below Average NBA Player
Calvin Booth
David Harrison
Mario Bennett 30 - 45
2.50% Poor NBA player
Jabari Smith 20 - 30
0.00% Not NBA quality
0 - 20

To place Joel Embiid's comp score of 58.24 into a frame of reference, using the identical methodology Anthony Davis scored 66.21, Nerlens Noel scored 64.61, and Cody Zeller scored 57.43. There is an 87.5% probability that Embiid will be a league average or better player, which is clearly one of the best scores in this draft. Cody Zeller had an 85% probability. In aggregate Embiid's comps are effectively equal to Zeller's. There is a 60% probability that Embiid will be an above average or better player. Very low risk player.

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Joel Embiid 1 5.08 10.33 49.2% 5.01 9.85 50.9% 0.06 0.20 28.7% 3.12 4.60 67.9% 55.5% 50.8%
Joel Embiid 2 5.58 10.72 52.1% 5.58 10.74 52.0% 0.04 0.19 18.9% 3.15 4.54 69.5% 56.3% 51.7%
Joel Embiid 3 5.62 11.21 50.1% 5.57 10.86 51.3% 0.05 0.27 19.2% 3.44 4.82 71.3% 55.2% 50.1%
3 Year Average 5.45 10.78 50.5% 5.41 10.53 51.4% 0.05 0.22 21.9% 3.25 4.66 69.7% 55.7% 50.8%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Joel Embiid 1 3.14 6.69 9.86 1.67 1.01 1.80 2.39 0.71 4.84 13.32
Joel Embiid 2 3.17 7.13 10.32 1.81 1.05 1.72 2.34 0.80 4.39 14.42
Joel Embiid 3 3.25 7.12 10.39 1.81 1.11 1.68 2.40 0.80 4.54 14.74
3 Year Average 3.2 7.0 10.2 1.8 1.1 1.7 2.4 0.78 4.6 14.2
Season Usage Stats
Joel Embiid 1 10.5% 22.3% 16.9% 7.4% 1.4% 3.8% 14.3% 19.0%
Joel Embiid 2 10.5% 23.2% 17.4% 8.2% 1.5% 3.5% 13.6% 19.8%
Joel Embiid 3 10.8% 23.6% 17.7% 8.5% 1.6% 3.6% 13.1% 20.9%
3 Year Average 10.6% 23.1% 17.4% 8.1% 1.5% 3.6% 13.6% 19.9%
Season Advanced Measurements
Joel Embiid 1 14.30 105.0 104.7 1.0 1.6 2.60 0.095
Joel Embiid 2 15.96 106.7 104.0 1.8 2.0 3.78 0.115
Joel Embiid 3 15.90 105.9 104.2 2.0 2.1 4.04 0.109
3 Year Average 15.46 105.9 104.3 1.6 1.9 3.53 0.107

Statistically Joel Embiid projects to be about league average in his first NBA season. Overall you would grade him as average both offensively and defensively. He is clearly not the defender that Davis, Noel, Adams, or Dieng projected to be, and does not project to be as good offensively as Cody Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, or Anthony Davis. He projects to be an average to a little above average shooter for a big man, with an average to just a little above average usage rate for a big. As a rebounder Embiid is not outstanding on either the offensive or defensive glass, but he is a good shot blocker. For a big man he projects to be better than average as a passer. In his first 3 years his turnover rates and personal fouls rates are a little below average, so I suspect he will have troubles staying out of foul trouble.

Most Probable Best Case Outcome : LaMarcus Aldridge
Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Erick Dampier
Most Probable Likely Outcome : Andrew Bogut / Derrick Favors
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