Comparable Analysis : Aaron Gordon

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches
Aaron Gordon 79.5 80.75 220 5.1% 8.75 10.5 83.75 106.5
Name No Step Vert Reach (inch) Max Vert Reach (inch) No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Aaron Gordon 137.5 144 32.5 39 10.81 3.27
Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Aaron Gordon -9 -2.05% -0.54 0.4 4.22 0.05 0.71

Aaron Gordon is 6-8 3/4 220 lbs. His weight is 9 lbs less than typical, and he has 5.1% body fat, which is 2.05% less than typical. Very well proportioned. Gordon's wingspan is 83 3/4", which is about 1/2" less than typical and his reach is 106.5", or about 3/8" more than typical. He would be described as having average length. His vertical is 39", which is 4-1/4" greater than typical, he did the sprint in 3.27 seconds, which is right at the average, and he did the agility drill in 10.81 seconds, which is 3/4's of a second quicker than typical. He would clear be described as a good to a very good athlete.

Comp Score Standard Deviation % of Comps who are League Average or Better
55.95% 14.93% 75.00%

5.00% All Star to Potential Hall of Fame
Paul Pierce
Grant Hill 85 - 100
Ronnie Brewer 10.00% Good to Very Good NBA Starter
Bradley Beal
Greg Monroe
Rudy Gay 70 - 85
Luol Deng Raef LaFrentz Jeff Green Lamond Murray 40.00% Above Average to Good NBA Player
Chris Mills Tristan Thompson Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Al-Farouq Aminu
Metta World Peace Mike Miller Jared Dudley Greg Buckner
Billy Owens Jeff Green Jamal Mashburn Tobias Harris 55 - 70
Spencer Hawes Jumaine Jones 20.00% Average NBA player
Gerald Wallace Mike Sweetney
Malik Sealy Jared Jeffries
John Wallace Samaki Walker 45 - 55
Doug Smith Perry Jones 25.00% Below Average NBA Player
Jeff Taylor Perry Jones
Dickey Simpkins Mark Hendrickson Devin Ebanks
Charles O'Bannon Tremaine Fowlkes Otto Porter 30 - 45
0.00% Poor NBA player
20 - 30
0.00% Not NBA quality
0 - 20

Aaron Gordon's comp score of 55.95 is just ever so slightly better than Saric, Randle, Vonleh, and Wiggins. At the same time for that group his standard deviation is also slightly higher. When comparing the % of comps who are league average or better, Gordon has the lowest score of the 5, and when looking at the % of comps league average or worse he has the worst score. In other words this group (Gordon, Saric, Randle, Vonleh, and Wiggins) are all very close, and really the decision on who should go higher is all based upon the team picking them.
One thing that separates Gordon from the group of 5 is he has two top grade comps, Paul Pierce and Grant Hill. If not for Hills injuries we are talking two first ballot hall of famers. None of the other group of 5 has a clear star even near the level of these two. There is a very significant drop from these two to the 20 comps though. this group of 20 comps is a nice group of good solid players, and not a single one would be considered a #1, or even a clear #2 on a good team. This group is all 3's & 4's at best, and even a fair number of role playing rotation guys getting 22+ minutes a night. It is not a bad group of players, but it clearly doesn't knock your socks off. Overall 70% of Gordon's comps come from this Average to Good group, so in all probability Gordon's career arc will mirror that of the players in the above average group, and that would be players like Mike Miller, Jeff Green, Jared Dudley, Jamal Mashburn, Lamond Murray, and Gerald Wallace. Those players were drafted 5th, 5th, 22nd, 4th, 7th, and 25th. So basically you are talking about #7-10 in an typical draft. That is where Gordon basically lays out in this draft, no better than 5th or 6th, perhaps as low as #12. Without question though it is very fair to say he is pretty low risk pick.

Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Aaron Gordon 1 5.18 11.67 44.4% 4.77 10.64 44.9% 0.40 1.30 30.4% 2.47 3.72 66.5% 47.8% 45.4%
Aaron Gordon 2 5.24 11.47 45.7% 4.57 9.76 46.8% 0.48 1.47 32.8% 2.49 3.68 67.6% 49.6% 47.3%
Aaron Gordon 3 5.24 11.54 45.5% 4.72 9.99 47.3% 0.54 1.62 33.3% 2.57 3.84 66.9% 49.4% 47.3%
3 Year Average 5.22 11.55 45.3% 4.68 10.08 46.5% 0.48 1.48 32.4% 2.51 3.75 67.0% 49.0% 46.8%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Aaron Gordon 1 2.56 4.79 7.40 1.92 1.12 0.74 2.02 1.01 3.42 13.22
Aaron Gordon 2 2.26 4.92 7.21 2.04 1.06 0.72 1.87 1.13 3.53 13.07
Aaron Gordon 3 2.16 5.06 7.26 2.13 1.04 0.79 1.81 1.22 3.55 13.62
3 Year Average 2.3 4.9 7.3 2.0 1.1 0.8 1.9 1.13 3.5 13.3
Season Usage Stats
Aaron Gordon 1 8.2% 15.8% 12.3% 8.8% 1.7% 1.5% 14.6% 19.7%
Aaron Gordon 2 7.4% 16.4% 12.1% 9.5% 1.6% 1.5% 14.0% 19.2%
Aaron Gordon 3 7.0% 16.9% 12.2% 10.1% 1.6% 1.7% 13.6% 19.5%
3 Year Average 7.5% 16.4% 12.2% 9.5% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0% 19.5%
Season Advanced Measurements
Aaron Gordon 1 12.94 100.9 106.8 0.6 1.2 1.79 0.064
Aaron Gordon 2 13.61 104.2 106.1 1.6 2.0 3.56 0.089
Aaron Gordon 3 13.97 104.7 105.5 2.1 2.3 4.42 0.096
3 Year Average 13.57 103.5 106.0 1.5 1.9 3.41 0.085

When evaluating Gordon, he starts out as a below average NBA player but a fairly typical rookie, with a WS/48 of .064 and a PER of 12.94. He makes steady improvement where, by year 3, he has a PER of 14 and a WS/48 of .096, making him an average NBA player. This hold true both offensively and defensively, he starts out below average offensively at 101, and defensively at 107. By year 3 is year right at an average NBA player at 105-105.5. All of this hold true with his shooting as well, starts out clearly below average, but makes steady progress and gets to where you would describe him adequate and acceptable. He doesn't shoot 3's badly, but he doesn't shoot that many. He is below average at the FT line, but shoots only a moderate amount. Overall his usage rate of 20% is good, perhaps a bit low, given his overall efficiency. A lot of NBA teams have far less efficient players getting higher usage, and allowing player like Gordon to push their usage to 22% while taking away shots from less efficient players would be a good idea. For a small forward, I believe you would describe Gordon as a solid, above average rebounder, and is actually a reasonable offensive rebounder. He is not a great passer, but he does have some skills as a passer, and he does have a very respectable low turnover rate. He won't generate a lot of possessions changes, but he is not prone to fouls.

Most Probable Best Case Outcome : The healthy Grant Hill in Orlando circa 2004-05, not the HoF Grant Hill in Detroit Most Probable Worst Case Outcome : Chris Mills Most Probable Likely Outcome : Gerald Wallace - Jamal Mashburn

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