FanPost

Home Court in the First Round?

Just another boring Blazers win tonight... Everything went as expected.

Nothing to see here...

Storm-troopers_move_along_medium

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As I've written about, we're going to face either the Clippers or the Rockets in the first round. The only real question left is the seeding.

So, what are the odds the Blazers get the 4 seed and have home court in the first round?

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Currently the Rockets are 1.5 games ahead of the Blazers, and they own the tiebreaker.

Remaining schedules:

Blazers

Home(7): LA Clippers, Golden State, Memphis, Phoenix, New Orleans, Washington, Sacramento

Away(7): Miami, Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando, LA Lakers, Utah

My preseason prediction had the Blazers going 9-5 in these games.

Rockets

Home(7): Oklahoma City, San Antonio, LA Clippers, Denver, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia

Away(8): Denver, Minnesota, New Orleans, Toronto, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Cleveland, LA Lakers

So, if the Blazers were to hit my prediction, the Blazers would need the Rockets to go 7-8 in these games to have home court in the first round.

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[edit: Per TYFB' question, here is my estimation:]

I think the 4 seed, 5 seed and 6 seeds are going to be very close, all with 52-54 wins.

I too think the upper bound on the Blazers is ~3 losses, and think the lower bound is ~6 losses.
I however, think Houston is going to struggle down the stretch, and see them losing at least ~5 games, and as many as ~8 losses.

Golden State is slated to make a nice push as well, with their schedule on the whole easing up… however they still have San Antonio twice(home and away), Memphis(home), Portland(away), Dallas(away).

I’ve been having dreams about those last 8 games since the schedule has come out.

I’m currently thinking something like this:

4 seed: 40%
5 seed: 40%
6 seed: 20%

I keep thinking it would be so ‘historically’ fitting for the Blazers to get the Rockets as the 4-5 matchup, in a rematch of BRoy’ first year in the playoffs. Blazers were the 4 seed with a record of 54-28(to match the Blazers would need to go 10-4) and the Rockets were the 5 seed with a record of 53-29(to match the Rockets would need to go 8-7). The 2008-09 Blazers had the best offensive rating in the league, as we do this year. Even if the records are switched, and we end up with the 5 seed with 53 wins(and Houston the 4 seed with 54 wins), I think it would be so ‘fitting.’ The Blazers rebirth in Lillard after BRoy’ ‘basketball death’ 2 years ago would be complete.

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Go Blazers!

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