The Pain of a Warrior


re: Thankyouforblaze from Timmay! recap

In the tiers of first world problems, there isn't much worse than losing at home to Golden State, and then having to deal with multiple texts from your Warrior' fan friends seconds later...

Is it better to get blown out and know you are going to lose for a substantial portion of the game, or to lose a close game in which you had the advantage for a substantial portion of the game?


"I DON'T CARE!" Harry yelled at them, snatching up a lunascope and throwing it into the fireplace. "I'VE HAD ENOUGH, I'VE SEEN ENOUGH, I WANT OUT, I WANT IT TO END, I DON'T CARE ANYMORE!"

"You do care," said Dumbledore. He had not flinched or made a single move to stop Harry demolishing his office. His expression was calm, almost detached. "You care so much you feel as though you will bleed to death with the pain of it."


The Blazers finished Phase 11 with a record of 1-5, and a good chunk of Blazersedge overreacting.

We're still on pace to win 53 games, and thus still on pace to have a 20 win improvement.

I attempted to ask Blazersedge for keep some perspective 10 days ago:

I guess one of the points I was hoping to deliver in this post is that if we lose 4 or 5 of the next 6 games that we shouldn’t overreact.

In my prediction, I have them going 12-9, but only 2-4 in the next 10 days.

There was a bit of an overreaction early last month… during phase 9.

Norsktroll at his best:

"The two stages of being a Blazers fan

Great win: REC PARTY!


"We can’t keep making excuses as to why we lost tonight. Sure the refs blowed but we need to take a LONG hard look in the mirror. This team has some major issues. You just don’t see other playoff teams give away games in the manner we have."

Losing 5 out of the last 7 games. Losing at Houston; losing at San Antonio and Dallas. Losing to Golden State at home? It's pathetic. You can not call yourself a contender and lose those games. Since March 4th:

Portland: 2-5 Losses: @Dallas(5), @Houston(5, OT), @Memphis(10), @San Antonio(13), Golden State(1)

Miami: 2-5 Losses: @Houston(3), @San Antonio(24), @Chicago(7, OT), Brooklyn(1), Denver(4)

Indiana: 3-4 Losses: Golden State(2), @Charlotte(22), @Houston(26), @Dallas(11)

You just don't see other playoff teams giving away games in the manner we have, especially not championship contenders.


"Yeah, I consider losing to the worst team in the conference choking
That team does not compare to the Blazers, and should never have been in position to make that last shot... I realized Portland was over-performing early in the season. I knew it wouldn’t last-you can’t win every close game at the buzzer. But you should win the games you should win."

You can't lose to the Lakers, the worst team in the conference, at the end of the season and expect to be a championship contender. It's a fact that championship teams win every home game against bad teams. Since Feb 20th:

Portland: 7-6 Losses: LA Lakers(1), @Dallas(5), @Houston(5, OT), @Memphis(10), @San Antonio(13), Golden State(1)

Oklahoma City: 5-6 Losses: Miami(22), LA Clippers(8), Cleveland(10), @Phoenix(6), @LA Lakers(4), Dallas(23)


"Looks like LMA' preseason prediction of being a 7 or 8 seed is going to come to fruition...
It’s too bad. After that torrid 24-5 start, you knew they would eventually level off and come back down to earth. But what looked like a Cinderella season, is starting to look like another season that Portlanders are all too familiar with. Still enjoying the ride, but it feels like the carnie operator is signaling the last lap here soon."

The team started out the year with a lot to prove, as underdogs (plus everyone rested was a huge help). The Blazers don’t have much of an edge right now and recent games seem to have demolished any level of fun that they once had.

That is all good and well, but the team we're probably going to play in the first round is on a roll now, and we're playing like crap. Since Feb 20th:

Portland: 7-6 Losses: LA Lakers(1), @Dallas(5), @Houston(5, OT), @Memphis(10), @San Antonio(13), GS(1)

Houston: 7-5 Losses: @Golden State(3, OT), @LA Clippers(8), @Oklahoma City(8), @Chicago(24), @Miami(9)


"Farwell Playoffs
We hardly knew you."

"We could still very well miss the playoffs
Start rooting for Phoenix to lose every night."

The Blazers are in free fall; we will be lucky just to make the playoffs.


Phoenix: 17-15

Or, the Blazers haven't dropped a single game in the playoff standings since January 8th, when the Blazers had a record of 26-9...


But, by all means, don't let facts get in the way of your Blazer pessimism...

One of my favorite things to watch is Blazer fans accuse other Blazer fans of not having higher aspirations for our team. The logic required to make those statements eludes me; like, what would make you believe that other fans don't want our boys to win a Championship as much as you do...


Anyways, I'm going to pretend we didn't just have to endure that loss. We lost a game on my preseason prediction, but we're still 5 games ahead of the prediction(6 games up in the first 19 games, 1 game down in the last 48 games).

So, looking ahead:

Phase 12: Once More Unto the Breach (Mar 17-Mar 28) 7 games (Milw, Wash, @Char, @Mia, @Orl, @Atl, @Chi).

There are 3 teams in the Wiggins lottery here: Milw, @Char, and @Orl. In addition, the Wizards are 19-90 on the road, since they drafted John Wall (however, we all know they swept us last year). In addition, I like our chances against @Hawks, and for some unknown reason the Heat have had trouble with the Blazers. I think winning 4 of the 7 games is a reasonable goal.

Prediction 4-3.

While the Blazers smashed the prediction on the initial Eastern Conference Attack, I'm going to stick to the pre-season prediction.

Remember, if the Blazers can match or beat my pre-season prediction for the final 15 games, they would finish the season with 53 wins, which would be a 20 win improvement over last year.

"(1) These are the teams that improved 20 or more games, but were starting from a solid foundation of at least a 29-53 record." "As you can see, all 7 of the previous teams advanced to at least the Conference Finals, with 3 of the 7 teams advancing all the way to the NBA Finals."

"(2) These are the teams that improved 20 or more games, but were starting from a record worse than 29-53(arranged by the second year record)." "All 5 teams that had records of at least 51-31 following the improvement won their first round playoff series, with 3 of the 5 teams advancing to at least the Conference Finals."

"The Blazers would need to have a record of 53-29 to get to that 20 win improvement."


Lastly, a bit of Blazersedge wisdom:

GMan83201: "Are short term trends more meaningful or accurate than long-term ones? Almost Universally, no."

occassia: "For many fans, their connection to the team is immediate, visceral, and driven by feelings. Fans at the other end of the spectrum are inclined to look at a longer term, broader picture, and to rely on analysis. It can be difficult to communicate." and "Analyzing the immediate connection tells us more about the fans than it does about the teams performance."


The only other game to match Batum' line tonight is Dirk Nowitzki in 2002(14 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 made 3pt, 3 steals):

Dirk Nowitzki (Dec 4th, 2002): 26 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 5/9 made 3pts (against the Blazers)

Nic Batum (March 16, 2014): 23 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 5/9 made 3pts


This rivalry with the Warriors is going to be so great the next couple years... But for tonight, I have a few choice words that I'm not allowed to share here on Blazersedge for you Warrior fans...


Go Blazers!

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