FanPost

Probability of Losing All these Close Games

It's been a painful last 13 games, and probably like a lot of you guys, at some point since last night's game, I thought "seriously, what are the odds of losing all these close games" ? So I googled "nba win probability" , and then I just entered 1 late gate situation for each of the 7 losses. There were actually situations in each of these games where our win probability was higher, but I restricted myself to only situations in the last 4 minutes. Here is the link to the win probability calculator I used.

Here are the situations, with the winning probability in parentheses/bold:

1) Up 3 with 0:09 left without possession at Houston (92.4%)

2) Up 6 with 4:00 left with possession at Dallas (88.2%)

3) Up 1 with 0:13 left with possession vs the L*kers (84.6%)

4) Tied with 1:35 left without possession vs San Antonio (44.8%)

5) Up 1 with 3:03 left without possession at the Clippers (54.2%)

6) Up 2 with 2:11 left without possession vs OKC (64.6%)

7) Up 3 with 0:09 left without possession at Indiana (92.4%)

The odds of losing all 7 games:

0.00094% or less than 1 in 100,000

So yeah, there is my completely unnecessary and frivolous fanpost about how incredibly unlikely it is we keep losing these games. I think it's important to note these things tend to even out over time, and we are way overdue to cash in on one of these opportunities.

And last but not least, Go Blazers!!!!

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