In Timmay! Thunder/Blazers Final post tonight, there was a spirited debate on if the Blazers should continue shooting 3 pointers when we're cold from downtown.
I wanted to illustrate why I feel that the Blazers should continue shooting regardless of if they are on fire or ice cold from distance.
Tonight, we can all agree, the 3pt shot wasn't falling. Despite this, lets look at the Blazers shots:
* 8 of 33 from 3pt range (24 points from 33 three point shots = .73 points/shot)
* 28 of 58 from 2pt (56 points from 58 two point shots = .96 points/shot)
If the Blazers had made 10(instead of 8) out of 33 three point shots, the Blazers would have been getting the same points/shot.
So, tonight, despite having our worse shooting night from 3pt range, the Blazers only needed to make 2 of the 25 misses from downtown to have the same amount of points/shot from distance. Two.
So, lets expand the sample size to the season thus far:
|3pt made||3pt attempted||Points from made 3pts||Points/3pt Attempt||2pt made||2pt attempted||Points from made 2pt||Points/2pt Attempt|
As we can see from the chart, every Blazer scores the same amount(points/attempt) or more with 3pt shots than they do on 2pt shots.
In fact, Lillard scores a full half point more on every 3pt shot than he does on 2pt shots. Seeing as he's averaging 7.3 three point shots a night, that works out to an extra 3.7 points on the scoreboard by taking those 7.3 three point shots as opposed to using those 7.3 possessions to shoot 2pt shots.
We$, Wright, and MoDub all average ~a quarter point more on every 3pt shot than they do on 2pt shots. The only player that regularly shoots 3pt shots, who doesn't score more points/shot by taking 3pt shots is Batum.
Looking at the totals, our regular 3pt shooters average 0.26 more points/shot from 3pt range than 2pt range. Since they are averaging 25.4 three point shots per game, the Blazers are netting an extra 6.6 points per night by shooting those 25.4 shots from distance as opposed to taking 2 pt shots.
After looking at this chart, I feel you have to play the odds; and the odds tell us that we score more off 3pt shots than we do on 2pt shots.
The Blazers are a great 3pt shooting team, and our 3pt shooters can't be afraid to take another 3pt shot, even when they're 0 for 6. To quote T Darkstar: "Anyone who stops shooting open threes should be benched."
So, in conclusion:
Lillard scores 0.51 more points/shot on 3pt shots than to 2pt shots
Wright scores 0.28 more points/shoot on 3pt shots than on 2pt shots
We$ scores 0.20 more points/shot on 3pt shots than on 2pt shots
MoDub scores 0.19 more points/shot on 3pt shots than on 2pt shots
Batum scores the same amount of points/shot from 3pt shots and 2pt shots.
Based on this, I would propose that the Blazers need to be taking more 3pt shots every game (including those in which we are ice cold).
On a side note, I wouldn't be opposed to trading TRob/Claver and draft considerations for Channing Frye or Spencer Hawes. Both have contracts that fit Olshey' current contract structure, with Frye off the books at the end of next season, and Hawes is an expiring contract. By acquiring them, we'd own their bird rights, which could come in handy if they were to fit.
I'm not one who is advocating for a trade, but I wouldn't be upset if the Blazers made a move for another ~7 footer who can space the floor.
* Channing Frye is 58 of 141 on 3 pointers (41.1%)
* Spencer Hawes is 49 of 111 on 3 pointers (44.1%)
The only other big that can shoot the 3 is Ryan Anderson, and I don't think we have the pieces to make the trade. Plus his contract goes past the 2014-15 season, so I don't know if that fits with Olshey' plan.
Again, to quote T Darkstar: "We won, so I'll take it. But the Blazer's offense is unbeatable when we hit threes. And even when we don't, we beat the best team in the NBA at their place."